Options Skew Analytics

CF options analytics

CF · Stock

Data as of 6 November 2026 (end of day)

CF options are pricing a 30-day at-the-money volatility of 41.6%, a move of about ±11.9% over the next month. That is higher than 79% of the 231 sessions in its trailing year.

Its 25-delta calls carry 0.64 volatility points more than the puts, closer together than on 90% of the past year.

Its next earnings report is 2027-02-03 (estimated from its reporting cadence).

Across its last 5 reports the options market priced an average move of ±5.9% and CF moved 34.7% on average, staying inside the priced band 1 times out of 5.

Current readings

30-day ATM implied volatilityⓘ
41.56%

Prices a move of about ±11.9% over 30 days, or ±2.6% on a typical day.

Higher than 79% of the past year.

25-delta risk reversalⓘ
-0.64

Calls carry 0.64 volatility points more than puts the same distance from the money.

Higher than 10% of the past year.

25-delta butterflyⓘ
+0.18

The wings carry 0.18 volatility points more than at-the-money.

Term structure slopeⓘ
1.002

90-day and 30-day options carry about the same volatility.

Higher than 41% of the past year.

Where 30-day implied volatility sits

Against 231 prior sessions (one-year window)

41.6% — 79th percentile
24.9%50.3%
IV percentile, 1 year
79%
IV rank, 1 year
66%
IV percentile, 2 years
84%
IV rank, 2 years
70%

Rank is the position between the lowest and highest readings in the window, so a single past extreme pins everything after it near one end. Percentile is the share of sessions below the current reading and is unaffected by how far that extreme reached. Both are withheld when the window holds fewer than 180 sessions.

Session detail

Underlying close
$119.39
30-day implied forward
$119.69
60-day ATM IV
40.74%
90-day ATM IV
41.65%
180-day ATM IV
42.79%
Expirations used
12
Total open interest
44,990
Put / call open interest
0.61

The forward is derived from put-call parity on the strikes nearest the money, not taken from the underlying close. It is what every moneyness and delta on this page is measured against.

30-day at-the-money implied volatility

Last 325 sessions

10%20%30%40%50%60%29 Aug26 Dec29 Apr2 Sep6 Nov
Show the underlying numbers (most recent 120)
Session30-day ATM IV25-delta RRTerm slopeClose
2026-11-0641.56%-0.641.002$119.39
2026-11-0544.55%-1.370.946$118.57
2026-11-0445.00%+2.660.947$111.68
2026-11-0345.93%+1.980.943$116.81
2026-11-0247.76%+1.200.922$120.33
2026-10-3047.25%+0.690.920$123.30
2026-10-2943.76%-1.390.960$118.09
2026-10-2846.03%+0.530.931$119.92
2026-10-2746.11%+1.640.903$120.54
2026-10-2647.07%-1.830.913$120.84
2026-10-2348.16%+0.850.902$120.68
2026-10-2247.42%+0.670.915$118.56
2026-10-2146.96%+0.060.906$116.30
2026-10-2045.85%-0.460.919$117.93
2026-10-1944.43%-0.430.948$118.51
2026-10-1644.90%+0.200.955$120.85
2026-10-1546.09%-0.750.943$119.77
2026-10-1450.25%-0.360.868$119.46
2026-10-1346.68%-0.560.925$117.25
2026-10-0943.12%-0.150.988$111.54
2026-10-0845.86%-1.540.911$113.58
2026-10-0741.62%-1.461.026$114.44
2026-10-0643.90%-1.630.939$116.02
2026-10-0544.86%-2.430.944$116.02
2026-10-0243.29%-0.430.979$115.01
2026-10-0144.21%-1.200.985$114.54
2026-09-3040.35%+0.111.040$115.20
2026-09-2943.44%-0.120.972$115.71
2026-09-2842.60%+0.581.021$115.51
2026-09-2541.04%+0.081.019$114.67
2026-09-2442.32%-0.981.039$118.44
2026-09-2343.02%-0.281.018$120.64
2026-09-2244.43%-1.421.016$120.59
2026-09-2145.52%+0.090.995$123.27
2026-09-1842.60%-0.241.051$127.70
2026-09-1743.79%-0.431.030$133.82
2026-09-1644.89%-0.541.016$131.99
2026-09-1545.53%-2.331.062$135.54
2026-09-1444.14%-1.151.023$131.24
2026-09-1145.39%-1.090.992$133.07
2026-09-1046.62%-1.830.989$135.11
2026-09-0946.59%+0.341.015$138.11
2026-09-0845.80%-0.031.024$134.33
2026-09-0443.64%+0.531.052$133.35
2026-09-0341.90%+0.271.093$137.81
2026-09-0245.04%+1.301.019$139.27
2026-09-0144.00%+0.221.047$135.60
2026-08-3139.89%+3.221.036$130.03
2026-08-2839.97%-1.571.060$125.79
2026-08-2740.16%-1.251.057$125.71
2026-08-2640.31%-0.191.022$125.70
2026-08-2539.36%-0.601.070$127.26
2026-08-2440.43%+0.971.048$129.24
2026-08-2139.13%+0.201.089$129.60
2026-08-2039.12%-0.011.043$125.70
2026-08-1937.12%+0.731.050$119.02
2025-09-2934.81%+2.460.935$90.51
2025-09-2632.02%+0.251.011$92.13
2025-09-2531.88%-0.081.032$89.71
2025-09-2432.37%+0.030.995$91.65
2025-09-2329.38%+0.161.052$87.14
2025-09-2229.04%-1.791.041$85.64
2025-09-1928.21%+0.131.081$85.09
2025-09-1829.07%+0.981.052$84.10
2025-09-1728.53%+0.081.077$84.19
2025-09-1628.93%+0.661.061$84.96
2025-09-1529.10%+1.401.060$85.35
2025-09-1228.33%+0.241.079$85.63
2025-09-1128.37%+1.631.080$86.13
2025-09-1028.09%+0.581.090$86.90
2025-09-0928.84%+1.711.063$84.66
2025-09-0828.09%+1.121.081$84.50
2025-09-0528.06%+0.931.093$84.48
2025-09-0428.88%+1.571.068$84.18
2025-09-0328.70%+0.921.068$84.77
2025-09-0228.11%+1.561.099$87.43
2025-08-2927.12%+1.111.125$86.63
2025-08-2829.56%-0.011.032$87.31
2025-08-2727.97%+0.751.094$86.35
2025-08-2628.82%+1.081.064$86.63
2025-08-2528.46%+0.771.082$86.17
2025-08-2226.93%+5.931.130$86.51
2025-08-2128.26%+1.421.100$86.36
2025-08-2028.20%+0.771.103$85.43
2025-08-1928.83%+1.841.052$84.00
2025-08-1828.72%+1.201.066$84.45
2025-08-1528.27%+1.141.089$85.90
2025-08-1428.55%+1.211.083$85.27
2025-08-1328.48%+0.851.087$86.42
2025-08-12———$82.90
2025-08-1130.03%+0.551.048$82.63
2025-08-08———$80.91
2025-08-0728.98%+1.161.044$82.89
2025-08-06———$89.90
2025-08-0535.20%-0.000.924$92.72
2025-08-0437.95%-3.730.834$93.65
2025-08-0135.71%-0.490.907$91.56
2025-07-3133.76%-1.260.910$92.83
2025-07-3033.02%+0.170.934$92.64
2025-07-2934.06%+0.570.911$94.91
2025-07-2831.84%-1.520.934$92.53
2025-07-2531.90%+0.750.943$93.30
2025-07-2432.73%+0.740.890$93.50
2025-07-2332.53%+0.590.926$93.71
2025-07-2232.46%+0.700.924$91.72
2025-07-2132.56%+1.730.930$90.99
2025-07-1832.11%+0.920.942$92.63
2025-07-1733.01%+0.670.912$91.79
2025-07-1633.78%+1.040.898$92.60
2025-07-1532.84%+0.560.917$95.90
2025-07-1433.14%+0.790.920$97.41
2025-07-1129.43%+1.091.015$98.24
2025-07-1031.02%+0.810.972$95.76
2025-07-0929.27%-0.141.021$98.75
2025-07-0829.79%+2.240.994$97.12
2025-07-0729.94%+1.281.022$95.19
2025-07-0327.01%+0.971.102$94.65
2025-07-0229.75%+0.741.052$93.85
2025-07-0128.25%+1.281.058$92.49
2025-06-3028.18%+1.041.073$92.00

The chart covers every session in the archive, 325 in total. The table lists the most recent 120.

25-delta risk reversal

Last 325 sessions

-10.0-5.00.05.010.029 Aug26 Dec29 Apr2 Sep6 Nov

The dashed line marks zero, where the 25-delta put and call carry the same implied volatility.

Skew curve

Implied volatility by delta, front expirations

Implied volatility by delta

7d (2026-11-13) · 14d (2026-11-20) · 21d (2026-11-27)

40%42%44%46%48%2026-11-13 (7d) — 25Δ C — IV 43.64%2026-11-13 (7d) — 30Δ C — IV 44.89%2026-11-13 (7d) — 35Δ C — IV 45.70%2026-11-13 (7d) — 40Δ C — IV 44.57%2026-11-13 (7d) — 45Δ C — IV 47.21%2026-11-13 (7d) — ATM — IV 45.03%2026-11-13 (7d) — 45Δ P — IV 41.93%2026-11-13 (7d) — 40Δ P — IV 43.39%2026-11-13 (7d) — 35Δ P — IV 42.45%2026-11-13 (7d) — 30Δ P — IV 42.73%2026-11-13 (7d) — 25Δ P — IV 43.06%2026-11-13 (7d) — 20Δ P — IV 43.81%2026-11-13 (7d) — 15Δ P — IV 43.87%7d2026-11-20 (14d) — 20Δ C — IV 42.12%2026-11-20 (14d) — 25Δ C — IV 42.70%2026-11-20 (14d) — 30Δ C — IV 43.37%2026-11-20 (14d) — 35Δ C — IV 42.80%2026-11-20 (14d) — 40Δ C — IV 43.39%2026-11-20 (14d) — 45Δ C — IV 43.17%2026-11-20 (14d) — ATM — IV 42.80%2026-11-20 (14d) — 45Δ P — IV 45.44%2026-11-20 (14d) — 40Δ P — IV 44.41%2026-11-20 (14d) — 35Δ P — IV 43.56%2026-11-20 (14d) — 30Δ P — IV 44.43%2026-11-20 (14d) — 25Δ P — IV 43.52%2026-11-20 (14d) — 20Δ P — IV 44.82%2026-11-20 (14d) — 15Δ P — IV 44.00%14d2026-11-27 (21d) — 15Δ C — IV 42.24%2026-11-27 (21d) — 20Δ C — IV 41.57%2026-11-27 (21d) — 25Δ C — IV 40.83%2026-11-27 (21d) — 30Δ C — IV 41.35%2026-11-27 (21d) — 35Δ C — IV 41.31%2026-11-27 (21d) — 40Δ C — IV 40.98%2026-11-27 (21d) — 45Δ C — IV 41.06%2026-11-27 (21d) — ATM — IV 41.08%2026-11-27 (21d) — 45Δ P — IV 44.28%2026-11-27 (21d) — 40Δ P — IV 43.53%2026-11-27 (21d) — 35Δ P — IV 41.23%2026-11-27 (21d) — 30Δ P — IV 44.12%2026-11-27 (21d) — 25Δ P — IV 43.96%2026-11-27 (21d) — 20Δ P — IV 42.64%21d10Δ C25Δ CATM25Δ P10Δ Pout-of-the-money calls ← delta → out-of-the-money puts

The axis is call delta. Readings to the right of the dashed centre line are taken from the out-of-the-money put at that strike, which is the contract whose quote the volatility was solved from. Points are only plotted where surviving quotes bracket the delta on both sides; nothing is extrapolated past the last traded strike.

Show the underlying numbers
Delta7d14d21d
15Δ call——42.24%
20Δ call—42.12%41.57%
25Δ call43.64%42.70%40.83%
30Δ call44.89%43.37%41.35%
35Δ call45.70%42.80%41.31%
40Δ call44.57%43.39%40.98%
45Δ call47.21%43.17%41.06%
ATM45.03%42.80%41.08%
45Δ put41.93%45.44%44.28%
40Δ put43.39%44.41%43.53%
35Δ put42.45%43.56%41.23%
30Δ put42.73%44.43%44.12%
25Δ put43.06%43.52%43.96%
20Δ put43.81%44.82%42.64%
15Δ put43.87%44.00%—

Wing readings by expiration

ExpirationDaysForwardATM IV25Δ put25Δ callRRButterflyQuotes
2026-11-137$119.8045.03%43.06%43.64%-0.58-1.6814
2026-11-2014$119.7042.80%43.52%42.70%+0.82+0.3122
2026-11-2721$119.7541.08%43.96%40.83%+3.14+1.3120
2026-12-0428$119.5842.39%41.12%42.48%-1.36-0.5915
2026-12-1135$119.9539.85%42.03%41.21%+0.82+1.7714
2026-12-1842$119.8041.27%41.24%41.20%+0.04-0.0510
2027-01-1570$120.4040.56%40.77%40.28%+0.49-0.0416
2027-02-19105$120.2042.19%41.15%42.82%-1.67-0.2014
2027-03-19133$120.0542.67%42.82%43.09%-0.27+0.2915
2027-05-21196$120.8442.82%43.96%42.63%+1.33+0.4811
2027-06-17223$120.7242.72%43.91%43.83%+0.08+1.1521
2027-09-17315$121.5443.20%43.96%43.36%+0.59+0.4613

Each curve above is one expiration. The vertical position is implied volatility; the horizontal position is the delta of the contract it was read from. For US equities the curve normally slopes upward to the right, meaning out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than equidistant calls.

The 25-delta risk reversal summarises that slope as a single number: the 25-delta put volatility minus the 25-delta call volatility. The butterfly summarises the curvature: the average of the two wings minus the at-the-money reading.

Term structure

At-the-money implied volatility by expiration

At-the-money implied volatility by expiration

12 listed expirations produced a usable reading

38%40%42%44%46%2026-11-13 — 7 days — at-the-money IV 45.03%2026-11-20 — 14 days — at-the-money IV 42.80%2026-11-27 — 21 days — at-the-money IV 41.08%2026-12-04 — 28 days — at-the-money IV 42.39%2026-12-11 — 35 days — at-the-money IV 39.85%2026-12-18 — 42 days — at-the-money IV 41.27%2027-01-15 — 70 days — at-the-money IV 40.56%2027-02-19 — 105 days — at-the-money IV 42.19%2027-03-19 — 133 days — at-the-money IV 42.67%2027-05-21 — 196 days — at-the-money IV 42.82%2027-06-17 — 223 days — at-the-money IV 42.72%2027-09-17 — 315 days — at-the-money IV 43.20%7306090180days to expiration

The horizontal axis is the square root of days to expiration, which is the scale volatility lives on. A curve that is flat in variance terms plots as a straight line here rather than bending sharply through the front week.

Show the underlying numbers
ExpirationDaysForwardATM IVATM strikeQuotes used
2026-11-137 days$119.8045.03%$120.0314
2026-11-2014 days$119.7042.80%$120.1222
2026-11-2721 days$119.7541.08%$120.3320
2026-12-0428 days$119.5842.39%$120.4115
2026-12-1135 days$119.9539.85%$120.8714
2026-12-1842 days$119.8041.27%$120.9810
2027-01-1570 days$120.4040.56%$122.3216
2027-02-19105 days$120.2042.19%$123.3214
2027-03-19133 days$120.0542.67%$124.1015
2027-05-21196 days$120.8442.82%$126.9411
2027-06-17223 days$120.7242.72%$127.6421
2027-09-17315 days$121.5443.20%$131.7313

Constant maturities

Interpolated between the bracketing listed expirations, in total variance

30 days
41.56%
60 days
40.74%
90 days
41.65%
180 days
42.79%

Interpolation is linear in total variance, not in volatility. Interpolating volatility directly implies a forward variance that can be negative between two expirations. A tenor beyond the longest listed expiration is reported as unavailable rather than extrapolated.

Term structure slope

Last 325 sessions

0.600.801.001.201.4029 Aug26 Dec29 Apr2 Sep6 Nov

The dashed line marks 1.00, where the 90-day and 30-day at-the-money volatilities are equal. Above it the longer tenor carries the higher volatility.

The term structure is the at-the-money implied volatility of each listed expiration, plotted against how far away that expiration is. Its usual shape for a calm underlying slopes gently upward, because a longer horizon admits more uncertainty.

It inverts when the market prices a dated event: an expiration that captures a scheduled announcement carries the variance of that event on top of ordinary trading, so a shorter contract can print a higher volatility than a longer one.

Earnings

What the options priced in before each report, and what happened

Next report

2027-02-03Time not statedEstimated from its reporting cadence

How the pricing has held up

Over the last 5 reports

Landed inside the implied band
1 of 5
20% — about 68% is what an exactly-priced event gives
Mean implied move
5.9%
Mean move that happened
34.7%
absolute

Reports

Newest first. The implied move is one standard deviation, priced from the session before the release.

ReportSessionImplied ±RealisedRealised / implied
2026-11-04After the close6.6%+6.2%0.93×
2026-08-05After the close———
2026-05-06After the close———
2026-02-18After the close———
2025-11-05After the close———
2025-08-06After the close6.2%+32.4%5.22×
2025-05-07After the close5.4%+47.5%8.81×
2025-02-19After the close6.1%+42.0%6.84×
2024-10-30After the close5.2%+45.5%8.77×
2024-08-07After the close———
2024-05-01After the close———
2024-02-14After the close———
2023-11-01After the close———

The implied move is read from the at-the-money straddle on the first expiration strictly after the report date, converted to a one-standard-deviation move and divided by the forward. Realised moves are the close-to-close return across the event, measured from the session before the release to the session after it.

Report dates that have already happened come from the company’s own 8-K filing and are exact. A date still in the future is either one the company has announced, or an estimate from its reporting cadence.