Stock · Options analytics
TSM options analytics
Data as of 10 November 2026 (end of day)
- Underlying close
- $396.48
- 30D ATM IV
- 41.13%
- IV percentile · 1Y
- 69th
- 25Δ risk reversal
- +5.13
- Term slope 90/30
- 0.962
▼ -0.18 pts vs prior
In brief
TSM options are pricing a 30-day at-the-money volatility of 41.1%, a move of about ±11.8% over the next month. That is higher than 69% of the 252 sessions in its trailing year.
Its 25-delta puts carry 5.13 volatility points more than the calls, which is further than on all but 10% of the past year.
The term structure is inverted: 90-day volatility is 4% below 30-day, which happens when the market prices something dated into the nearer expirations.
01 · Readings
Current readings
The 30-day surface as of the latest session, each placed in its own history.
Headline readings · 30-day tenor
- 30-day ATM implied volatilityⓘ
- 41.13%
- 25-delta risk reversalⓘ
- +5.13
- 25-delta butterflyⓘ
- +0.71
- Term structure slopeⓘ
- 0.962
Prices a move of about ±11.8% over 30 days, or ±2.6% on a typical day.
Higher than 69% of the past year.
Puts carry 5.13 volatility points more than calls the same distance from the money.
Higher than 90% of the past year.
The wings carry 0.71 volatility points more than at-the-money.
90-day volatility is 4% below 30-day.
Higher than 31% of the past year.
Where 30-day implied volatility sits
Against 252 prior sessions (one-year window)
- IV percentile, 1 year
- 69%
- IV rank, 1 year
- 30%
- IV percentile, 2 years
- 69%
- IV rank, 2 years
- 30%
Rank is the position between the lowest and highest readings in the window, so a single past extreme pins everything after it near one end. Percentile is the share of sessions below the current reading and is unaffected by how far that extreme reached. Both are withheld when the window holds fewer than 180 sessions.
Session detail
- Underlying close
- $396.48
- 30-day implied forward
- $396.40
- 60-day ATM IV
- 40.27%
- 90-day ATM IV
- 39.55%
- 180-day ATM IV
- 39.31%
- Expirations used
- 13
- Total open interest
- 1,504,541
- Put / call open interest
- 1.03
The forward is derived from put-call parity on the strikes nearest the money, not taken from the underlying close. It is what every moneyness and delta on this page is measured against.
02 · History
How the readings got here
Every session in the archive window, one point per close.
30-day at-the-money implied volatility
Last 297 sessions
Show the underlying numbers (most recent 120)
| Session | 30-day ATM IV | 25-delta RR | Term slope | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 41.13% | +5.13 | 0.962 | $396.48 |
| 2026-11-09 | 41.31% | +5.88 | 0.949 | $388.62 |
| 2026-11-06 | 46.32% | +6.88 | 0.901 | $375.44 |
| 2026-11-05 | 49.76% | +8.86 | 0.872 | $353.10 |
| 2026-11-04 | 37.08% | +3.60 | 1.005 | $395.75 |
| 2026-11-03 | 39.26% | +4.66 | 0.976 | $404.80 |
| 2026-11-02 | 40.54% | +4.44 | 0.959 | $398.63 |
| 2026-10-30 | 37.58% | +5.03 | 0.998 | $406.13 |
| 2026-10-29 | 33.69% | +2.14 | 1.054 | $431.81 |
| 2026-10-28 | 33.06% | +2.98 | 1.066 | $439.51 |
| 2026-10-27 | 33.94% | +2.35 | 1.044 | $436.87 |
| 2026-10-26 | 34.43% | +3.29 | 1.026 | $424.37 |
| 2026-10-23 | 34.64% | +2.62 | 1.022 | $418.51 |
| 2026-10-22 | 35.25% | +2.84 | 0.998 | $412.35 |
| 2026-10-21 | 32.40% | +1.84 | 1.031 | $431.89 |
| 2026-10-20 | 32.77% | +2.48 | 1.015 | $425.08 |
| 2026-10-19 | 31.79% | +1.98 | 1.032 | $420.22 |
| 2026-10-16 | 32.54% | +2.62 | 1.009 | $412.61 |
| 2026-10-15 | 31.81% | +0.61 | 1.022 | $422.25 |
| 2026-10-14 | 33.77% | +0.86 | 0.995 | $430.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | 32.59% | +0.48 | 1.013 | $445.12 |
| 2026-10-09 | 32.15% | +0.37 | 1.043 | $453.31 |
| 2026-10-08 | 33.67% | +1.06 | 1.022 | $457.99 |
| 2026-10-07 | 32.16% | +0.36 | 1.050 | $472.20 |
| 2026-10-06 | 32.02% | -0.01 | 1.063 | $482.30 |
| 2026-10-05 | 32.52% | +0.05 | 1.053 | $485.80 |
| 2026-10-02 | 32.02% | +0.33 | 1.069 | $472.78 |
| 2026-10-01 | 32.87% | +0.30 | 1.046 | $459.20 |
| 2026-09-30 | 33.84% | -0.18 | 1.023 | $456.19 |
| 2026-09-29 | 33.89% | +0.38 | 1.025 | $456.94 |
| 2026-09-28 | 33.95% | +0.18 | 1.017 | $452.88 |
| 2026-09-25 | 32.22% | +0.26 | 1.052 | $450.61 |
| 2026-09-24 | 32.98% | +0.50 | 1.051 | $451.15 |
| 2026-09-23 | 33.03% | +0.46 | 1.042 | $446.57 |
| 2026-09-22 | 33.31% | +0.14 | 1.030 | $452.00 |
| 2026-09-21 | 33.45% | -0.09 | 1.029 | $445.14 |
| 2025-10-17 | 42.51% | +3.20 | 1.026 | $295.08 |
| 2025-10-16 | 45.15% | +2.59 | 1.000 | $299.84 |
| 2025-10-15 | 47.02% | -0.54 | 0.958 | $304.71 |
| 2025-10-14 | 47.44% | +1.39 | 0.942 | $295.94 |
| 2025-10-10 | 49.45% | +1.98 | 0.913 | $280.66 |
| 2025-10-09 | 45.24% | -0.26 | 0.966 | $299.88 |
| 2025-10-08 | 47.10% | -0.01 | 0.919 | $304.52 |
| 2025-10-07 | 45.43% | +2.03 | 0.928 | $294.03 |
| 2025-10-06 | 45.91% | -0.50 | 0.925 | $302.40 |
| 2025-10-03 | 42.55% | +0.86 | 0.929 | $292.19 |
| 2025-10-02 | 42.01% | +1.12 | 0.939 | $288.11 |
| 2025-10-01 | 42.66% | -0.32 | 0.926 | $288.47 |
| 2025-09-30 | 39.48% | +0.72 | 0.945 | $279.29 |
| 2025-09-29 | 39.22% | +0.67 | 0.952 | $273.23 |
| 2025-09-26 | 38.26% | +0.90 | 0.956 | $273.36 |
| 2025-09-25 | 39.96% | +1.04 | 0.943 | $276.66 |
| 2025-09-24 | 40.47% | -0.32 | 0.931 | $280.71 |
| 2025-09-23 | 41.53% | -0.43 | 0.929 | $282.71 |
| 2025-09-22 | 41.75% | -0.88 | 0.908 | $272.63 |
| 2025-09-19 | 37.16% | +1.34 | 0.964 | $264.87 |
| 2025-09-18 | 38.93% | +0.65 | 0.934 | $268.64 |
| 2025-09-17 | 36.00% | +1.11 | 0.966 | $262.79 |
| 2025-09-16 | 36.10% | +1.32 | 0.964 | $262.06 |
| 2025-09-15 | 35.11% | +0.73 | 0.987 | $261.38 |
| 2025-09-12 | 32.11% | +0.79 | 1.068 | $259.33 |
| 2025-09-11 | 31.40% | +1.11 | 1.095 | $258.91 |
| 2025-09-10 | 32.11% | +1.30 | 1.092 | $260.44 |
| 2025-09-09 | 31.03% | +1.82 | 1.106 | $250.92 |
| 2025-09-08 | 30.68% | +2.55 | 1.115 | $247.19 |
| 2025-09-05 | 30.30% | +1.89 | 1.115 | $243.41 |
| 2025-09-04 | 29.70% | +3.38 | 1.113 | $235.21 |
| 2025-09-03 | 30.94% | +3.81 | 1.090 | $231.39 |
| 2025-09-02 | 32.41% | +4.28 | 1.075 | $228.39 |
| 2025-08-29 | 30.43% | +3.78 | 1.113 | $230.87 |
| 2025-08-28 | 29.29% | +2.93 | 1.126 | $238.27 |
| 2025-08-27 | 31.41% | +3.01 | 1.073 | $239.29 |
| 2025-08-26 | 31.74% | +2.62 | 1.061 | $238.72 |
| 2025-08-25 | 31.93% | +3.16 | 1.064 | $235.59 |
| 2025-08-22 | 31.47% | +3.26 | 1.064 | $232.99 |
| 2025-08-21 | 33.52% | +5.04 | 1.038 | $227.33 |
| 2025-08-20 | 32.61% | +5.09 | 1.051 | $228.60 |
| 2025-08-19 | 32.46% | +4.31 | 1.050 | $232.70 |
| 2025-08-18 | 30.99% | +2.68 | 1.068 | $241.41 |
| 2025-08-15 | 31.28% | +2.82 | 1.068 | $238.88 |
| 2025-08-14 | 30.79% | +2.33 | 1.077 | $241.00 |
| 2025-08-13 | 30.49% | +2.45 | 1.083 | $241.44 |
| 2025-08-12 | 29.86% | +2.30 | 1.098 | $244.29 |
| 2025-08-11 | 31.90% | +2.29 | 1.057 | $242.09 |
| 2025-08-08 | 31.39% | +2.43 | 1.078 | $241.83 |
| 2025-08-07 | 33.23% | +2.79 | 1.044 | $242.62 |
| 2025-08-06 | 33.25% | +2.88 | 1.034 | $231.37 |
| 2025-08-05 | 33.72% | +4.05 | 1.034 | $232.47 |
| 2025-08-04 | 32.24% | +3.44 | 1.052 | $239.00 |
| 2025-08-01 | 34.55% | +4.05 | 1.038 | $235.21 |
| 2025-07-31 | 33.18% | +2.81 | 1.051 | $241.62 |
| 2025-07-30 | 32.06% | +2.19 | 1.061 | $242.91 |
| 2025-07-29 | 31.87% | +1.84 | 1.057 | $241.33 |
| 2025-07-28 | 30.82% | +1.66 | 1.082 | $242.75 |
| 2025-07-25 | 29.82% | +1.89 | 1.094 | $245.60 |
| 2025-07-24 | 30.07% | +1.85 | 1.092 | $241.60 |
| 2025-07-23 | 30.81% | +1.81 | 1.079 | $240.33 |
| 2025-07-22 | 31.30% | +2.11 | 1.070 | $234.60 |
| 2025-07-21 | 31.68% | +2.08 | 1.061 | $238.85 |
| 2025-07-18 | 31.76% | +2.22 | 1.056 | $240.40 |
| 2025-07-17 | 32.67% | +1.23 | 1.044 | $245.60 |
| 2025-07-16 | 37.09% | +0.49 | 0.951 | $237.56 |
| 2025-07-15 | 37.76% | +0.42 | 0.946 | $236.95 |
| 2025-07-14 | 36.75% | +1.32 | 0.967 | $228.67 |
| 2025-07-11 | 36.55% | +1.88 | 0.966 | $230.40 |
| 2025-07-10 | 37.10% | +2.14 | 0.961 | $229.76 |
| 2025-07-09 | 38.25% | +1.65 | 0.951 | $231.84 |
| 2025-07-08 | 38.72% | +1.59 | 0.950 | $227.86 |
| 2025-07-07 | 39.73% | +2.18 | 0.945 | $229.17 |
| 2025-07-03 | 37.90% | +1.31 | 0.975 | $234.80 |
| 2025-07-02 | 37.71% | +1.22 | 0.969 | $233.60 |
| 2025-07-01 | 37.23% | +2.26 | 0.967 | $224.68 |
| 2025-06-30 | 36.42% | +2.08 | 0.980 | $226.49 |
| 2025-06-27 | 36.03% | +2.39 | 0.991 | $228.57 |
| 2025-06-26 | 35.26% | +2.40 | 0.996 | $224.01 |
| 2025-06-25 | 35.96% | +1.51 | 0.978 | $222.74 |
| 2025-06-24 | 35.62% | +2.81 | 0.998 | $220.09 |
| 2025-06-23 | 35.66% | +4.25 | 0.988 | $210.32 |
| 2025-06-20 | 36.84% | +4.86 | 0.984 | $209.51 |
| 2025-06-18 | 36.47% | +4.00 | 0.986 | $213.50 |
The chart covers every session in the archive, 297 in total. The table lists the most recent 120.
25-delta risk reversal
Last 297 sessions
The dashed line marks zero, where the 25-delta put and call carry the same implied volatility.
03 · Skew
Skew curve
Implied volatility by delta, front expirations
Implied volatility by delta
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
The axis is call delta. Readings to the right of the dashed centre line are taken from the out-of-the-money put at that strike, which is the contract whose quote the volatility was solved from. Points are only plotted where surviving quotes bracket the delta on both sides; nothing is extrapolated past the last traded strike.
Show the underlying numbers
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ call | 52.13% | 45.90% | 40.77% |
| 10Δ call | 52.24% | 45.73% | 40.06% |
| 15Δ call | 52.71% | 45.94% | 40.25% |
| 20Δ call | 53.16% | 46.31% | 40.77% |
| 25Δ call | 53.66% | 46.79% | 41.32% |
| 30Δ call | 54.00% | 47.18% | 41.39% |
| 35Δ call | 54.75% | 47.50% | 41.75% |
| 40Δ call | 55.06% | 47.91% | 42.17% |
| 45Δ call | 54.71% | 48.34% | 42.57% |
| ATM | 54.86% | 48.82% | 43.01% |
| 45Δ put | 55.54% | 49.06% | 43.82% |
| 40Δ put | 56.53% | 49.57% | 43.73% |
| 35Δ put | 56.26% | 50.39% | 44.70% |
| 30Δ put | 57.51% | 51.22% | 45.56% |
| 25Δ put | 58.97% | 51.92% | 45.81% |
| 20Δ put | 59.77% | 52.75% | 47.23% |
| 15Δ put | 61.42% | 54.23% | 48.44% |
| 10Δ put | 63.78% | 55.88% | 50.57% |
| 5Δ put | 67.70% | 60.31% | 55.04% |
Wing readings by expiration
| Expiration | Days | Forward | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | Butterfly | Quotes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $395.50 | 54.86% | 58.97% | 53.66% | +5.32 | +1.46 | 67 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $395.78 | 48.82% | 51.92% | 46.79% | +5.13 | +0.54 | 64 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $396.18 | 43.01% | 45.81% | 41.32% | +4.49 | +0.55 | 52 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $396.53 | 42.07% | 45.16% | 40.01% | +5.15 | +0.52 | 46 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $396.38 | 41.00% | 44.30% | 39.18% | +5.12 | +0.74 | 48 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $396.49 | 40.79% | 43.99% | 38.69% | +5.29 | +0.55 | 32 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $396.71 | 39.96% | 42.89% | 38.19% | +4.70 | +0.58 | 50 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $397.76 | 40.34% | 42.80% | 38.33% | +4.46 | +0.22 | 38 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $399.65 | 39.31% | 41.82% | 37.27% | +4.55 | +0.23 | 43 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $400.48 | 39.16% | 41.95% | 37.16% | +4.79 | +0.40 | 49 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $401.32 | 39.48% | 42.04% | 37.49% | +4.54 | +0.28 | 43 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $404.41 | 39.10% | 41.67% | 37.03% | +4.63 | +0.25 | 55 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $408.83 | 38.93% | 41.58% | 37.49% | +4.09 | +0.60 | 53 |
Each curve above is one expiration. The vertical position is implied volatility; the horizontal position is the delta of the contract it was read from. For US equities the curve normally slopes upward to the right, meaning out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than equidistant calls.
The 25-delta risk reversal summarises that slope as a single number: the 25-delta put volatility minus the 25-delta call volatility. The butterfly summarises the curvature: the average of the two wings minus the at-the-money reading.
04 · Term structure
Term structure
At-the-money implied volatility by expiration
At-the-money implied volatility by expiration
13 listed expirations produced a usable reading
The horizontal axis is the square root of days to expiration, which is the scale volatility lives on. A curve that is flat in variance terms plots as a straight line here rather than bending sharply through the front week.
Show the underlying numbers
| Expiration | Days | Forward | ATM IV | ATM strike | Quotes used |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 days | $395.50 | 54.86% | $395.99 | 67 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 days | $395.78 | 48.82% | $397.07 | 64 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 days | $396.18 | 43.01% | $397.89 | 52 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 days | $396.53 | 42.07% | $398.84 | 46 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 days | $396.38 | 41.00% | $399.22 | 48 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 days | $396.49 | 40.79% | $399.93 | 32 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 days | $396.71 | 39.96% | $400.54 | 50 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 days | $397.76 | 40.34% | $403.65 | 38 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 days | $399.65 | 39.31% | $408.28 | 43 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 days | $400.48 | 39.16% | $411.48 | 49 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 days | $401.32 | 39.48% | $415.01 | 43 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 days | $404.41 | 39.10% | $423.40 | 55 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 days | $408.83 | 38.93% | $436.10 | 53 |
Constant maturities
Interpolated between the bracketing listed expirations, in total variance
- 30 days
- 41.13%
- 60 days
- 40.27%
- 90 days
- 39.55%
- 180 days
- 39.31%
Interpolation is linear in total variance, not in volatility. Interpolating volatility directly implies a forward variance that can be negative between two expirations. A tenor beyond the longest listed expiration is reported as unavailable rather than extrapolated.
Term structure slope
Last 297 sessions
The dashed line marks 1.00, where the 90-day and 30-day at-the-money volatilities are equal. Above it the longer tenor carries the higher volatility.
The term structure is the at-the-money implied volatility of each listed expiration, plotted against how far away that expiration is. Its usual shape for a calm underlying slopes gently upward, because a longer horizon admits more uncertainty.
It inverts when the market prices a dated event: an expiration that captures a scheduled announcement carries the variance of that event on top of ordinary trading, so a shorter contract can print a higher volatility than a longer one.
05 · Earnings
Earnings
What the options priced in before each report, and what happened
How the pricing has held up
Over the last 1 reports
- Landed inside the implied band
- 1 of 1
- 100% — about 68% is what an exactly-priced event gives
- Mean implied move
- 4.7%
- Mean move that happened
- 1.8%
- absolute
Reports
Newest first. The implied move is one standard deviation, priced from the session before the release.
| Report | Session | Implied ± | Realised | Realised / implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Before the open | 4.7% | -1.8% | 0.38× |
The implied move is read from the at-the-money straddle on the first expiration strictly after the report date, converted to a one-standard-deviation move and divided by the forward. Realised moves are the close-to-close return across the event, measured from the session before the release to the session after it.
Report dates that have already happened come from the company’s own 8-K filing and are exact. A date still in the future is either one the company has announced, or an estimate from its reporting cadence.