股票 · 期权分析
AAPL 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $348.51
- 30D ATM IV
- 22.82%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 19
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +4.68
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.091
▼ -0.01 pts 较前一交易日
概览
AAPL 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 22.8%,相当于未来一个月约 ±6.5% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 19% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 4.68 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
较长期限的期权波动率更高:90 天波动率比 30 天高 9%。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-01(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 10 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±4.7% 的波动,AAPL 实际平均波动 2.3%,10 次中有 9 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 22.82%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +4.68
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.55
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.091
对应 30 天内约 ±6.5% 的波动，平常一天约 ±1.4%。
高于过去一年中 19% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 4.68 个点。
高于过去一年中 79% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.55 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 9%。
高于过去一年中 76% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 19%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 37%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 22%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 17%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $348.51
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $350.13
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 23.15%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 24.88%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 26.15%
- 使用的到期日数
- 18
- 总未平仓量
- 4,208,007
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.80
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 552 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 22.82% | +4.68 | 1.091 | $348.51 |
| 2026-11-09 | 22.83% | +4.67 | 1.080 | $350.69 |
| 2026-11-06 | 25.23% | +5.31 | 1.037 | $342.37 |
| 2026-11-05 | 26.39% | +6.08 | 1.002 | $344.17 |
| 2026-11-04 | 22.72% | +3.39 | 1.066 | $349.51 |
| 2026-11-03 | 24.76% | +3.82 | 1.029 | $331.90 |
| 2026-11-02 | 30.07% | +7.30 | 0.908 | $338.32 |
| 2026-10-30 | 28.73% | +5.38 | 0.923 | $344.63 |
| 2026-10-29 | 25.99% | +3.53 | 0.957 | $348.91 |
| 2026-10-28 | 25.75% | +3.42 | 0.960 | $343.83 |
| 2026-10-27 | 26.71% | +4.32 | 0.938 | $347.10 |
| 2026-10-26 | 26.94% | +4.90 | 0.926 | $343.91 |
| 2026-10-23 | 26.97% | +4.82 | 0.920 | $347.73 |
| 2026-10-22 | 27.62% | +4.86 | 0.902 | $348.22 |
| 2026-10-21 | 26.50% | +4.32 | 0.907 | $343.99 |
| 2026-10-20 | 26.93% | +4.55 | 0.898 | $339.50 |
| 2026-10-19 | 27.00% | +4.35 | 0.900 | $342.94 |
| 2026-10-16 | 27.82% | +5.07 | 0.886 | $343.46 |
| 2026-10-15 | 26.57% | +3.62 | 0.908 | $342.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | 26.18% | +3.68 | 0.910 | $342.96 |
| 2026-10-13 | 25.87% | +2.92 | 0.923 | $341.27 |
| 2026-10-09 | 26.42% | +2.26 | 0.926 | $336.64 |
| 2026-10-08 | 26.58% | +2.59 | 0.918 | $340.42 |
| 2026-10-07 | 26.69% | +2.30 | 0.928 | $336.67 |
| 2026-10-06 | 26.04% | +2.47 | 0.944 | $333.63 |
| 2026-10-05 | 26.01% | +2.19 | 0.948 | $332.89 |
| 2026-10-02 | 25.45% | +2.85 | 0.972 | $333.69 |
| 2026-10-01 | 26.20% | +2.69 | 0.967 | $330.32 |
| 2026-09-30 | 26.18% | +2.07 | 0.962 | $333.02 |
| 2026-09-29 | 26.02% | +2.13 | 0.970 | $329.40 |
| 2026-09-28 | 24.79% | +2.44 | 1.002 | $338.40 |
| 2026-09-25 | 22.43% | +2.42 | 1.093 | $341.07 |
| 2026-09-24 | 23.11% | +1.73 | 1.087 | $335.92 |
| 2026-09-23 | 23.01% | +1.91 | 1.099 | $337.02 |
| 2026-09-22 | 22.55% | +1.95 | 1.116 | $339.75 |
| 2026-09-21 | 22.66% | +2.37 | 1.113 | $338.98 |
| 2026-09-18 | 22.78% | +2.38 | 1.115 | $336.13 |
| 2026-09-17 | 23.40% | +2.12 | 1.098 | $337.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | 24.62% | +2.54 | 1.072 | $332.41 |
| 2026-09-15 | 24.40% | +2.04 | 1.080 | $331.34 |
| 2026-09-14 | 24.63% | +2.13 | 1.077 | $333.08 |
| 2026-09-11 | 24.07% | +1.54 | 1.101 | $332.27 |
| 2026-09-10 | 25.30% | +1.56 | 1.079 | $326.57 |
| 2026-09-09 | 25.87% | +1.28 | 1.061 | $315.34 |
| 2026-09-08 | 26.35% | +1.63 | 1.038 | $316.22 |
| 2026-09-04 | 24.60% | +1.63 | 1.078 | $319.97 |
| 2026-09-03 | 24.25% | +1.69 | 1.071 | $328.21 |
| 2026-09-02 | 24.93% | +1.66 | 1.063 | $324.96 |
| 2026-09-01 | 24.77% | +1.85 | 1.061 | $325.13 |
| 2026-08-31 | 23.86% | +1.31 | 1.093 | $316.85 |
| 2026-08-28 | 23.77% | +1.06 | 1.094 | $319.70 |
| 2026-08-27 | 24.35% | +0.91 | 1.073 | $314.58 |
| 2026-08-26 | 24.68% | +0.94 | 1.067 | $313.45 |
| 2026-08-25 | 24.22% | +1.46 | 1.080 | $309.90 |
| 2026-08-24 | 24.61% | +1.12 | 1.080 | $310.34 |
| 2026-08-21 | 24.24% | +1.42 | 1.100 | $309.35 |
| 2026-08-20 | 24.90% | +1.77 | 1.087 | $311.30 |
| 2026-08-19 | 24.67% | +0.87 | 1.082 | $316.83 |
| 2026-08-18 | 24.10% | +1.45 | 1.084 | $310.03 |
| 2026-08-17 | 23.49% | +0.93 | 1.106 | $305.59 |
| 2026-08-14 | 22.37% | +0.82 | 1.127 | $305.93 |
| 2026-08-13 | 23.10% | +1.62 | 1.113 | $305.26 |
| 2026-08-12 | 23.28% | +0.92 | 1.087 | $302.25 |
| 2026-08-11 | 23.33% | +1.26 | 1.083 | $304.91 |
| 2026-08-10 | 24.13% | +0.74 | 1.066 | $308.26 |
| 2026-08-07 | 23.81% | +0.67 | 1.089 | $313.33 |
| 2026-08-06 | 25.02% | +0.50 | 1.065 | $312.41 |
| 2026-08-05 | 25.85% | +0.98 | 1.052 | $311.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | 26.47% | +0.78 | 1.036 | $309.38 |
| 2026-08-03 | 27.34% | +1.39 | 1.017 | $303.42 |
| 2026-07-31 | 26.48% | +1.92 | 1.020 | $308.91 |
| 2026-07-30 | 29.67% | +3.33 | 0.943 | $333.43 |
| 2026-07-29 | 28.96% | +4.28 | 0.980 | $338.19 |
| 2026-07-28 | 28.93% | +2.82 | 0.972 | $340.08 |
| 2026-07-27 | 29.42% | +3.07 | 0.955 | $336.91 |
| 2026-07-24 | 29.00% | +2.98 | 0.968 | $333.02 |
| 2026-07-23 | 29.25% | +3.33 | 0.968 | $321.66 |
| 2026-07-22 | 29.62% | +2.15 | 0.949 | $325.89 |
| 2026-07-21 | 29.89% | +2.51 | 0.942 | $327.74 |
| 2026-07-20 | 30.47% | +3.14 | 0.938 | $326.59 |
| 2026-07-17 | 30.60% | +3.06 | 0.934 | $333.74 |
| 2026-07-16 | 29.53% | +2.17 | 0.957 | $333.26 |
| 2026-07-15 | 28.09% | +2.08 | 0.959 | $327.50 |
| 2026-07-14 | 27.67% | +2.22 | 0.962 | $314.86 |
| 2026-07-13 | 28.15% | +2.55 | 0.955 | $317.31 |
| 2026-07-10 | 27.23% | +2.17 | 0.974 | $315.32 |
| 2026-07-09 | 27.49% | +2.92 | 0.955 | $316.22 |
| 2026-07-08 | 27.76% | +2.34 | 0.946 | $313.39 |
| 2026-07-07 | 28.21% | +3.12 | 0.946 | $310.66 |
| 2026-07-06 | 27.99% | +2.70 | 0.954 | $312.66 |
| 2026-07-02 | 28.34% | +2.67 | 0.943 | $308.63 |
| 2026-07-01 | 28.13% | +3.42 | 0.958 | $294.38 |
| 2026-06-30 | 27.70% | +2.93 | 0.965 | $289.36 |
| 2026-06-29 | 28.11% | +2.34 | 0.953 | $281.74 |
| 2026-06-26 | 26.78% | +3.65 | 1.016 | $283.78 |
| 2026-06-25 | 28.55% | +2.23 | 0.990 | $275.15 |
| 2026-06-24 | 23.86% | +1.84 | 1.085 | $293.08 |
| 2026-06-23 | 23.15% | +2.67 | 1.077 | $294.30 |
| 2026-06-22 | 22.58% | +1.50 | 1.124 | $297.01 |
| 2026-06-18 | 21.93% | +1.59 | 1.137 | $298.01 |
| 2026-06-17 | 22.61% | +2.08 | 1.119 | $295.95 |
| 2026-06-16 | 21.33% | +1.55 | 1.154 | $299.24 |
| 2026-06-15 | 21.73% | +1.56 | 1.150 | $296.42 |
| 2026-06-12 | 22.07% | +2.79 | 1.156 | $291.13 |
| 2026-06-11 | 23.28% | +2.53 | 1.121 | $295.63 |
| 2026-06-10 | 24.69% | +2.44 | 1.098 | $291.58 |
| 2026-06-09 | 24.35% | +2.71 | 1.084 | $290.55 |
| 2026-06-08 | 23.84% | +2.35 | 1.093 | $301.54 |
| 2026-06-05 | 24.72% | +1.59 | 1.060 | $307.34 |
| 2026-06-04 | 23.35% | +0.62 | 1.088 | $311.23 |
| 2026-06-03 | 24.30% | +0.95 | 1.062 | $310.26 |
| 2026-06-02 | 23.71% | +1.30 | 1.066 | $315.20 |
| 2026-06-01 | 23.33% | +0.51 | 1.066 | $306.31 |
| 2026-05-29 | 21.29% | +1.22 | 1.127 | $312.06 |
| 2026-05-28 | 21.92% | +2.01 | 1.109 | $312.51 |
| 2026-05-27 | 22.42% | +1.57 | 1.094 | $310.85 |
| 2026-05-26 | 22.21% | +1.82 | 1.092 | $308.33 |
| 2026-05-22 | 21.64% | +2.08 | 1.091 | $308.82 |
| 2026-05-21 | 22.40% | +2.68 | 1.075 | $304.99 |
| 2026-05-20 | 23.12% | +1.82 | 1.066 | $302.25 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 552 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 552 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-11) · 3d (2026-11-13) · 6d (2026-11-16)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 3d | 6d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 24.44% | 24.34% | 19.93% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 23.87% | 24.19% | 19.89% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 23.91% | 24.20% | 20.18% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 23.99% | 24.49% | 20.40% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 24.06% | 24.76% | 20.58% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 24.17% | 24.97% | 20.85% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 24.31% | 25.21% | 21.17% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 24.46% | 25.53% | 21.37% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 24.63% | 25.86% | 21.52% |
| ATM | 24.84% | 26.19% | 21.80% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 25.10% | 26.53% | 22.21% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 25.40% | 26.92% | 22.54% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 25.76% | 27.38% | 22.85% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 26.23% | 27.94% | 23.35% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 26.86% | 28.66% | 24.01% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 27.64% | 29.43% | 24.74% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 28.60% | 30.47% | 25.59% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 30.03% | 32.12% | 26.96% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 33.04% | 35.41% | 30.08% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | 1 | $349.17 | 24.84% | 26.86% | 24.06% | +2.80 | +0.62 | 17 |
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $349.04 | 26.19% | 28.66% | 24.76% | +3.90 | +0.52 | 36 |
| 2026-11-16 | 6 | $349.05 | 21.80% | 24.01% | 20.58% | +3.43 | +0.50 | 29 |
| 2026-11-18 | 8 | $349.20 | 23.38% | 25.67% | 21.85% | +3.82 | +0.38 | 29 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $349.32 | 24.06% | 26.34% | 22.43% | +3.91 | +0.33 | 49 |
| 2026-11-23 | 13 | $349.17 | 22.86% | 25.56% | 21.43% | +4.13 | +0.63 | 25 |
| 2026-11-25 | 15 | $348.82 | 23.09% | 25.09% | 22.55% | +2.54 | +0.73 | 9 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $349.62 | 22.32% | 24.76% | 20.68% | +4.08 | +0.40 | 45 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $349.82 | 22.46% | 24.91% | 20.83% | +4.07 | +0.41 | 28 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $350.18 | 22.86% | 25.81% | 21.06% | +4.75 | +0.57 | 32 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $350.43 | 23.06% | 25.68% | 21.27% | +4.41 | +0.42 | 46 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $350.68 | 23.12% | 26.16% | 21.26% | +4.90 | +0.59 | 25 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $351.69 | 23.15% | 25.85% | 21.34% | +4.52 | +0.44 | 50 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $353.01 | 25.38% | 28.19% | 23.28% | +4.91 | +0.35 | 31 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $354.06 | 25.56% | 28.45% | 23.55% | +4.91 | +0.44 | 34 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $355.28 | 25.79% | 28.74% | 23.60% | +5.14 | +0.38 | 51 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $357.56 | 26.59% | 29.40% | 24.47% | +4.93 | +0.35 | 41 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $361.04 | 26.89% | 29.51% | 24.79% | +4.72 | +0.26 | 68 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
18 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | 1 天 | $349.17 | 24.84% | $349.20 | 17 |
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $349.04 | 26.19% | $349.14 | 36 |
| 2026-11-16 | 6 天 | $349.05 | 21.80% | $349.19 | 29 |
| 2026-11-18 | 8 天 | $349.20 | 23.38% | $349.41 | 29 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $349.32 | 24.06% | $349.60 | 49 |
| 2026-11-23 | 13 天 | $349.17 | 22.86% | $349.50 | 25 |
| 2026-11-25 | 15 天 | $348.82 | 23.09% | $349.21 | 9 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $349.62 | 22.32% | $350.03 | 45 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $349.82 | 22.46% | $350.41 | 28 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $350.18 | 22.86% | $350.95 | 32 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $350.43 | 23.06% | $351.40 | 46 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $350.68 | 23.12% | $351.81 | 25 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $351.69 | 23.15% | $353.40 | 50 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $353.01 | 25.38% | $356.17 | 31 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $354.06 | 25.56% | $358.17 | 34 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $355.28 | 25.79% | $360.40 | 51 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $357.56 | 26.59% | $365.23 | 41 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $361.04 | 26.89% | $372.33 | 68 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 22.82%
- 60 天
- 23.15%
- 90 天
- 24.88%
- 180 天
- 26.15%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 552 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 10 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 10 次中 9 次
- 90% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 4.7%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 2.3%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | 收盘后 | 5.8% | -1.9% | 0.33× |
| 2026-10-29 | 未说明时间 | 1.2% | -1.2% | 0.98× |
| 2026-07-30 | 收盘后 | 4.7% | -7.4% | 1.56× |
| 2026-04-30 | 收盘后 | 4.8% | +3.2% | 0.67× |
| 2026-01-29 | 收盘后 | 5.6% | +0.5% | 0.08× |
| 2025-10-30 | 收盘后 | 4.2% | -0.4% | 0.09× |
| 2025-07-31 | 收盘后 | 5.5% | -2.5% | 0.45× |
| 2025-05-01 | 收盘后 | 5.5% | -3.7% | 0.69× |
| 2025-01-30 | 收盘后 | 5.2% | -0.7% | 0.13× |
| 2024-10-31 | 收盘后 | 4.8% | -1.3% | 0.27× |
| 2024-08-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-02 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-02 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。