股票 · 期权分析
TSLA 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $379.78
- 30D ATM IV
- 44.33%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 43
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +5.47
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.001
▼ -0.32 pts 较前一交易日
概览
TSLA 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 44.3%,相当于未来一个月约 ±12.7% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 43% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 5.47 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-02(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 19 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±7.3% 的波动,TSLA 实际平均波动 5.8%,19 次中有 14 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 44.33%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +5.47
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.74
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.001
对应 30 天内约 ±12.7% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.8%。
高于过去一年中 43% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 5.47 个点。
高于过去一年中 88% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.74 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
高于过去一年中 35% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 43%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 31%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 23%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 11%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $379.78
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $378.83
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 43.11%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 44.36%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 45.07%
- 使用的到期日数
- 17
- 总未平仓量
- 3,932,547
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.70
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 552 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 44.33% | +5.47 | 1.001 | $379.78 |
| 2026-11-09 | 44.65% | +6.18 | 1.002 | $378.05 |
| 2026-11-06 | 50.01% | +8.88 | 0.952 | $358.22 |
| 2026-11-05 | 55.85% | +10.11 | 0.886 | $343.69 |
| 2026-11-04 | 43.24% | +3.66 | 1.003 | $385.19 |
| 2026-11-03 | 44.10% | +4.31 | 0.996 | $398.50 |
| 2026-11-02 | 44.73% | +4.66 | 0.989 | $403.82 |
| 2026-10-30 | 41.71% | +4.72 | 1.024 | $399.81 |
| 2026-10-29 | 36.87% | +2.12 | 1.082 | $403.30 |
| 2026-10-28 | 37.03% | +1.90 | 1.078 | $404.22 |
| 2026-10-27 | 38.21% | +2.19 | 1.062 | $407.46 |
| 2026-10-26 | 39.16% | +2.35 | 1.031 | $391.62 |
| 2026-10-23 | 39.48% | +2.46 | 1.011 | $372.22 |
| 2026-10-22 | 39.93% | +2.26 | 0.997 | $374.58 |
| 2026-10-21 | 42.84% | +2.10 | 0.944 | $386.47 |
| 2026-10-20 | 45.79% | +1.67 | 0.902 | $373.71 |
| 2026-10-19 | 45.33% | +2.03 | 0.910 | $368.06 |
| 2026-10-16 | 48.37% | +2.48 | 0.874 | $354.72 |
| 2026-10-15 | 45.49% | +0.51 | 0.900 | $362.44 |
| 2026-10-14 | 43.87% | +0.80 | 0.915 | $367.16 |
| 2026-10-13 | 42.81% | -0.12 | 0.926 | $375.23 |
| 2026-10-09 | 42.58% | -0.14 | 0.941 | $382.70 |
| 2026-10-08 | 43.45% | -0.33 | 0.926 | $375.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | 43.96% | -0.57 | 0.921 | $377.81 |
| 2026-10-06 | 43.48% | -0.41 | 0.925 | $380.68 |
| 2026-10-05 | 44.14% | -0.17 | 0.929 | $378.73 |
| 2026-10-02 | 43.40% | +0.11 | 0.944 | $370.59 |
| 2026-10-01 | 45.31% | -0.29 | 0.925 | $354.11 |
| 2026-09-30 | 45.55% | -1.27 | 0.923 | $354.81 |
| 2026-09-29 | 44.90% | -0.68 | 0.927 | $352.84 |
| 2026-09-28 | 45.41% | -0.63 | 0.932 | $357.45 |
| 2026-09-25 | 44.12% | -0.56 | 0.952 | $372.11 |
| 2026-09-24 | 44.18% | -0.49 | 0.952 | $377.94 |
| 2026-09-23 | 44.61% | -0.64 | 0.956 | $380.12 |
| 2026-09-22 | 44.71% | -0.91 | 0.966 | $378.90 |
| 2026-09-21 | 44.43% | -0.33 | 0.982 | $375.30 |
| 2026-09-18 | 41.66% | -0.62 | 1.042 | $364.27 |
| 2026-09-17 | 41.74% | -0.49 | 1.057 | $366.20 |
| 2026-09-16 | 42.37% | -0.04 | 1.054 | $358.08 |
| 2026-09-15 | 41.42% | -0.01 | 1.068 | $356.58 |
| 2026-09-14 | 40.27% | -0.38 | 1.089 | $358.97 |
| 2026-09-11 | 39.08% | -0.42 | 1.120 | $365.44 |
| 2026-09-10 | 40.50% | +0.00 | 1.101 | $363.56 |
| 2026-09-09 | 41.90% | +0.22 | 1.080 | $367.81 |
| 2026-09-08 | 41.33% | +0.06 | 1.082 | $368.16 |
| 2026-09-04 | 39.94% | -1.55 | 1.099 | $354.08 |
| 2026-09-03 | 43.33% | -0.88 | 1.045 | $376.37 |
| 2026-09-02 | 41.40% | -0.34 | 1.085 | $357.01 |
| 2026-09-01 | 40.62% | -0.31 | 1.082 | $356.09 |
| 2026-08-31 | 41.56% | -0.79 | 1.079 | $367.95 |
| 2026-08-28 | 37.84% | +0.38 | 1.142 | $348.75 |
| 2026-08-27 | 39.33% | -0.44 | 1.125 | $354.81 |
| 2026-08-26 | 40.25% | -0.29 | 1.100 | $345.82 |
| 2026-08-25 | 40.30% | -0.05 | 1.117 | $350.25 |
| 2026-08-24 | 40.57% | +0.12 | 1.108 | $348.95 |
| 2026-08-21 | 40.67% | -0.27 | 1.117 | $362.86 |
| 2026-08-20 | 40.75% | -0.66 | 1.122 | $345.13 |
| 2026-08-19 | 41.77% | -1.81 | 1.096 | $351.12 |
| 2026-08-18 | 40.23% | -0.80 | 1.116 | $336.87 |
| 2026-08-17 | 38.72% | -1.08 | 1.136 | $339.30 |
| 2026-08-14 | 38.41% | -1.77 | 1.146 | $342.27 |
| 2026-08-13 | 37.85% | -1.77 | 1.151 | $339.96 |
| 2026-08-12 | 37.18% | -1.12 | 1.161 | $327.51 |
| 2026-08-11 | 38.27% | -1.35 | 1.147 | $332.81 |
| 2026-08-10 | 39.78% | -1.72 | 1.126 | $330.88 |
| 2026-08-07 | 41.28% | -1.79 | 1.096 | $328.58 |
| 2026-08-06 | 42.31% | -0.88 | 1.086 | $319.53 |
| 2026-08-05 | 43.36% | -0.83 | 1.067 | $321.55 |
| 2026-08-04 | 45.81% | -1.11 | 1.039 | $327.35 |
| 2026-08-03 | 45.41% | -0.25 | 1.036 | $322.08 |
| 2026-07-31 | 45.20% | +0.46 | 1.035 | $311.21 |
| 2026-07-30 | 45.82% | +0.66 | 1.020 | $308.85 |
| 2026-07-29 | 47.85% | +2.48 | 1.002 | $298.32 |
| 2026-07-28 | 46.59% | +1.61 | 1.000 | $307.44 |
| 2026-07-27 | 47.30% | +2.18 | 0.993 | $309.22 |
| 2026-07-24 | 47.97% | +2.25 | 0.987 | $313.03 |
| 2026-07-23 | 46.97% | +1.40 | 0.989 | $319.69 |
| 2026-07-22 | 48.43% | +0.11 | 0.957 | $374.01 |
| 2026-07-21 | 48.17% | +0.23 | 0.956 | $378.93 |
| 2026-07-20 | 49.60% | +0.65 | 0.936 | $369.57 |
| 2026-07-17 | 48.55% | +1.01 | 0.947 | $380.84 |
| 2026-07-16 | 49.39% | +0.14 | 0.947 | $391.06 |
| 2026-07-15 | 49.29% | +0.14 | 0.957 | $394.46 |
| 2026-07-14 | 47.99% | +0.42 | 0.967 | $396.18 |
| 2026-07-13 | 48.24% | +0.65 | 0.970 | $394.76 |
| 2026-07-10 | 47.14% | +0.61 | 0.981 | $407.76 |
| 2026-07-09 | 47.90% | -0.24 | 0.974 | $406.55 |
| 2026-07-08 | 48.51% | +0.16 | 0.965 | $394.06 |
| 2026-07-07 | 48.83% | +0.61 | 0.957 | $402.90 |
| 2026-07-06 | 47.70% | +0.70 | 0.968 | $419.77 |
| 2026-07-02 | 46.92% | +0.42 | 0.974 | $393.45 |
| 2026-07-01 | 45.61% | +0.54 | 0.988 | $425.30 |
| 2026-06-30 | 47.04% | +0.19 | 0.974 | $420.60 |
| 2026-06-29 | 47.84% | +0.78 | 0.970 | $411.84 |
| 2026-06-26 | 46.69% | +0.06 | 0.973 | $379.71 |
| 2026-06-25 | 46.03% | +1.48 | 0.973 | $375.12 |
| 2026-06-24 | 47.87% | +0.76 | 0.957 | $375.53 |
| 2026-06-23 | 47.51% | +0.53 | 0.967 | $381.61 |
| 2026-06-22 | 45.65% | +0.13 | 0.998 | $405.05 |
| 2026-06-18 | 42.36% | -0.19 | 1.064 | $400.49 |
| 2026-06-17 | 43.59% | -0.12 | 1.058 | $396.38 |
| 2026-06-16 | 42.67% | -0.89 | 1.073 | $404.66 |
| 2026-06-15 | 44.37% | -0.98 | 1.068 | $411.15 |
| 2026-06-12 | 48.14% | -0.93 | 1.041 | $406.43 |
| 2026-06-11 | 49.31% | -0.87 | 1.027 | $399.15 |
| 2026-06-10 | 49.42% | +1.03 | 1.020 | $381.59 |
| 2026-06-09 | 47.91% | +0.40 | 1.037 | $396.68 |
| 2026-06-08 | 47.14% | -0.61 | 1.043 | $408.95 |
| 2026-06-05 | 48.86% | +0.03 | 1.017 | $391.00 |
| 2026-06-04 | 45.55% | -2.50 | 1.053 | $418.45 |
| 2026-06-03 | 46.18% | -2.44 | 1.050 | $423.70 |
| 2026-06-02 | 45.72% | -2.41 | 1.056 | $423.74 |
| 2026-06-01 | 44.20% | -0.81 | 1.083 | $415.88 |
| 2026-05-29 | 41.96% | -1.94 | 1.116 | $435.79 |
| 2026-05-28 | 43.96% | -2.57 | 1.094 | $442.10 |
| 2026-05-27 | 45.51% | -2.58 | 1.078 | $440.36 |
| 2026-05-26 | 44.63% | -1.92 | 1.081 | $433.59 |
| 2026-05-22 | 43.96% | -1.74 | 1.084 | $426.01 |
| 2026-05-21 | 43.60% | -1.07 | 1.086 | $417.85 |
| 2026-05-20 | 44.73% | -0.91 | 1.062 | $417.26 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 552 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 552 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-11) · 3d (2026-11-13) · 6d (2026-11-16)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 3d | 6d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 48.60% | 49.28% | 41.25% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 47.17% | 48.24% | 40.60% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 46.85% | 48.19% | 40.51% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 46.85% | 48.28% | 40.63% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 46.93% | 48.47% | 40.88% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 47.20% | 48.90% | 41.08% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 47.53% | 49.27% | 41.49% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 47.95% | 49.74% | 41.83% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 48.48% | 50.24% | 42.22% |
| ATM | 49.08% | 50.62% | 42.52% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 49.63% | 51.01% | 42.90% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 50.20% | 51.61% | 43.38% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 50.81% | 52.22% | 43.97% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 51.47% | 52.87% | 44.60% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 52.16% | 53.71% | 45.36% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 53.16% | 54.72% | 46.15% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 54.60% | 56.13% | 47.59% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 57.02% | 58.38% | 49.55% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 62.32% | 63.14% | 53.94% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | 1 | $377.55 | 49.08% | 52.16% | 46.93% | +5.23 | +0.47 | 51 |
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $377.70 | 50.62% | 53.71% | 48.47% | +5.24 | +0.47 | 94 |
| 2026-11-16 | 6 | $377.75 | 42.52% | 45.36% | 40.88% | +4.48 | +0.60 | 90 |
| 2026-11-18 | 8 | $377.65 | 45.79% | 48.62% | 44.53% | +4.08 | +0.78 | 89 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $378.00 | 47.22% | 50.78% | 45.18% | +5.60 | +0.76 | 91 |
| 2026-11-23 | 13 | $378.20 | 43.95% | 47.39% | 42.29% | +5.10 | +0.89 | 62 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $378.30 | 43.77% | 47.25% | 41.66% | +5.59 | +0.68 | 90 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $378.72 | 44.47% | 48.37% | 42.49% | +5.88 | +0.96 | 91 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $378.85 | 44.31% | 47.72% | 42.31% | +5.41 | +0.71 | 94 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $379.25 | 44.32% | 47.83% | 42.04% | +5.79 | +0.61 | 128 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $379.60 | 43.29% | 47.14% | 41.39% | +5.75 | +0.98 | 68 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $380.71 | 43.06% | 46.51% | 41.07% | +5.44 | +0.73 | 106 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $382.43 | 44.74% | 47.88% | 43.14% | +4.73 | +0.77 | 75 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $383.76 | 44.69% | 47.63% | 43.03% | +4.60 | +0.65 | 81 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $384.72 | 44.98% | 47.38% | 42.94% | +4.44 | +0.18 | 91 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $388.13 | 45.19% | 47.81% | 43.93% | +3.88 | +0.68 | 115 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $392.29 | 45.88% | 48.16% | 44.38% | +3.78 | +0.39 | 77 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
17 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | 1 天 | $377.55 | 49.08% | $377.67 | 51 |
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $377.70 | 50.62% | $378.10 | 94 |
| 2026-11-16 | 6 天 | $377.75 | 42.52% | $378.31 | 90 |
| 2026-11-18 | 8 天 | $377.65 | 45.79% | $378.52 | 89 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $378.00 | 47.22% | $379.16 | 91 |
| 2026-11-23 | 13 天 | $378.20 | 43.95% | $379.50 | 62 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $378.30 | 43.77% | $379.99 | 90 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $378.72 | 44.47% | $381.19 | 91 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $378.85 | 44.31% | $382.02 | 94 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $379.25 | 44.32% | $383.15 | 128 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $379.60 | 43.29% | $383.91 | 68 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $380.71 | 43.06% | $387.14 | 106 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $382.43 | 44.74% | $393.17 | 75 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $383.76 | 44.69% | $397.54 | 81 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $384.72 | 44.98% | $401.83 | 91 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $388.13 | 45.19% | $412.64 | 115 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $392.29 | 45.88% | $429.09 | 77 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 44.33%
- 60 天
- 43.11%
- 90 天
- 44.36%
- 180 天
- 45.07%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 552 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 19 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 19 次中 14 次
- 74% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 7.3%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 5.8%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 未说明时间 | 3.1% | -0.2% | 0.07× |
| 2026-10-21 | 收盘后 | 6.9% | -3.1% | 0.45× |
| 2026-10-02 | 开盘前 | 4.0% | +4.7% | 1.17× |
| 2026-07-22 | 收盘后 | 7.4% | -14.5% | 1.97× |
| 2026-07-02 | 开盘前 | 4.4% | -7.5% | 1.69× |
| 2026-04-22 | 收盘后 | 6.6% | -3.6% | 0.54× |
| 2026-04-02 | 开盘前 | 4.4% | -5.4% | 1.25× |
| 2026-01-28 | 收盘后 | 7.1% | -3.5% | 0.49× |
| 2026-01-02 | 开盘前 | 6.1% | -2.6% | 0.43× |
| 2025-10-22 | 收盘后 | 8.5% | +2.3% | 0.27× |
| 2025-10-02 | 开盘前 | 5.5% | -5.1% | 0.93× |
| 2025-07-23 | 收盘后 | 9.0% | -8.2% | 0.91× |
| 2025-07-02 | 开盘前 | 6.1% | +5.0% | 0.82× |
| 2025-04-22 | 收盘后 | 13.9% | +5.4% | 0.39× |
| 2025-04-02 | 开盘前 | 9.6% | +5.3% | 0.55× |
| 2025-01-29 | 收盘后 | 11.7% | +2.9% | 0.25× |
| 2025-01-02 | 开盘前 | 7.4% | -6.1% | 0.82× |
| 2024-10-23 | 收盘后 | 10.1% | +21.9% | 2.16× |
| 2024-10-02 | 开盘前 | 7.0% | -3.5% | 0.50× |
| 2024-07-23 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-07-02 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-23 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-02 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-24 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-02 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-18 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-02 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。