股票 · 期权分析
GOOGL 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $287.38
- 30D ATM IV
- 31.97%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 46
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +2.68
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.071
▼ -0.28 pts 较前一交易日
概览
GOOGL 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 32.0%,相当于未来一个月约 ±9.2% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 46% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 2.68 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
较长期限的期权波动率更高:90 天波动率比 30 天高 7%。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-03(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 10 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±7.2% 的波动,GOOGL 实际平均波动 4.8%,10 次中有 8 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 31.97%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +2.68
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.66
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.071
对应 30 天内约 ±9.2% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.0%。
高于过去一年中 46% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 2.68 个点。
高于过去一年中 75% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.66 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 7%。
高于过去一年中 46% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 46%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 38%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 55%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 32%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $287.38
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $288.43
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 31.87%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 34.26%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 35.19%
- 使用的到期日数
- 19
- 总未平仓量
- 2,977,219
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.71
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 550 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 31.97% | +2.68 | 1.071 | $287.38 |
| 2026-11-09 | 32.26% | +2.22 | 1.044 | $288.15 |
| 2026-11-06 | 33.49% | +4.44 | 1.042 | $284.78 |
| 2026-11-05 | 35.87% | +4.55 | 0.990 | $282.57 |
| 2026-11-04 | 30.27% | +0.97 | 1.059 | $288.93 |
| 2026-11-03 | 31.33% | +2.05 | 1.053 | $280.03 |
| 2026-11-02 | 31.85% | +2.68 | 1.035 | $278.99 |
| 2026-10-30 | 31.40% | +2.48 | 1.028 | $279.84 |
| 2026-10-29 | 29.69% | -0.18 | 1.052 | $283.82 |
| 2026-10-28 | 39.09% | -0.73 | 0.886 | $324.89 |
| 2026-10-27 | 37.61% | +0.43 | 0.890 | $320.58 |
| 2026-10-26 | 37.88% | +1.04 | 0.890 | $316.80 |
| 2026-10-23 | 37.16% | +1.91 | 0.896 | $320.21 |
| 2026-10-22 | 37.81% | +2.49 | 0.892 | $324.22 |
| 2026-10-21 | 36.41% | +0.82 | 0.892 | $334.76 |
| 2026-10-20 | 37.27% | +1.59 | 0.874 | $340.28 |
| 2026-10-19 | 36.52% | +2.44 | 0.883 | $344.18 |
| 2026-10-16 | 37.43% | +3.00 | 0.879 | $340.59 |
| 2026-10-15 | 37.53% | +1.02 | 0.863 | $349.22 |
| 2026-10-14 | 37.72% | +0.50 | 0.865 | $347.64 |
| 2026-10-13 | 36.66% | +0.17 | 0.882 | $353.78 |
| 2026-10-09 | 35.86% | +0.62 | 0.888 | $351.66 |
| 2026-10-08 | 36.82% | -0.02 | 0.893 | $348.29 |
| 2026-10-07 | 37.30% | +0.27 | 0.895 | $350.50 |
| 2026-10-06 | 35.68% | -0.20 | 0.910 | $347.68 |
| 2026-10-05 | 35.19% | -0.01 | 0.920 | $346.47 |
| 2026-10-02 | 34.85% | +0.62 | 0.943 | $343.50 |
| 2026-10-01 | 36.13% | -0.63 | 0.927 | $338.24 |
| 2026-09-30 | 36.09% | -0.63 | 0.928 | $344.08 |
| 2026-09-29 | 35.19% | -0.76 | 0.947 | $340.92 |
| 2026-09-28 | 34.64% | -0.70 | 0.961 | $342.75 |
| 2026-09-25 | 31.98% | -0.74 | 1.050 | $343.92 |
| 2026-09-24 | 31.48% | -0.71 | 1.078 | $342.36 |
| 2026-09-23 | 31.18% | -0.94 | 1.105 | $337.83 |
| 2026-09-22 | 31.54% | -0.16 | 1.102 | $351.16 |
| 2026-09-21 | 31.31% | +0.02 | 1.088 | $354.97 |
| 2026-09-18 | 29.48% | -0.23 | 1.140 | $349.54 |
| 2026-09-17 | 29.40% | -0.13 | 1.133 | $347.33 |
| 2026-09-16 | 30.09% | +0.66 | 1.128 | $342.87 |
| 2026-09-15 | 29.50% | +0.59 | 1.142 | $344.98 |
| 2026-09-14 | 29.90% | +0.08 | 1.126 | $349.39 |
| 2026-09-11 | 27.84% | +0.26 | 1.175 | $338.50 |
| 2026-09-10 | 29.32% | -0.72 | 1.159 | $332.60 |
| 2026-09-09 | 29.46% | -0.63 | 1.164 | $330.65 |
| 2026-09-08 | 29.92% | -0.73 | 1.157 | $338.36 |
| 2026-09-04 | 27.49% | -0.41 | 1.204 | $338.46 |
| 2026-09-03 | 27.08% | +0.26 | 1.200 | $342.48 |
| 2026-09-02 | 27.83% | +0.22 | 1.195 | $337.12 |
| 2026-09-01 | 26.95% | -0.29 | 1.204 | $335.02 |
| 2026-08-31 | 27.32% | -0.84 | 1.177 | $339.35 |
| 2026-08-28 | 26.80% | +0.69 | 1.223 | $346.59 |
| 2026-08-27 | 26.88% | -0.23 | 1.225 | $340.65 |
| 2026-08-26 | 27.72% | +0.41 | 1.197 | $342.00 |
| 2026-08-25 | 28.14% | -0.03 | 1.178 | $346.96 |
| 2026-08-24 | 29.12% | -0.14 | 1.164 | $348.06 |
| 2026-08-21 | 27.93% | +1.11 | 1.205 | $344.82 |
| 2026-08-20 | 28.39% | +1.36 | 1.183 | $340.67 |
| 2026-08-19 | 28.21% | +0.54 | 1.176 | $344.72 |
| 2026-08-18 | 27.94% | +0.73 | 1.182 | $344.20 |
| 2026-08-17 | 27.79% | +0.38 | 1.175 | $344.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | 26.75% | -0.24 | 1.211 | $345.90 |
| 2026-08-13 | 28.17% | -0.56 | 1.177 | $346.36 |
| 2026-08-12 | 28.40% | -0.28 | 1.165 | $343.54 |
| 2026-08-11 | 29.47% | +0.73 | 1.127 | $343.80 |
| 2026-08-10 | 29.98% | +0.86 | 1.106 | $357.52 |
| 2026-08-07 | 29.52% | +0.23 | 1.122 | $354.30 |
| 2026-08-06 | 31.18% | -0.03 | 1.087 | $357.75 |
| 2026-08-05 | 33.64% | +0.51 | 1.071 | $362.43 |
| 2026-08-04 | 33.42% | +0.61 | 1.068 | $377.65 |
| 2026-08-03 | 33.28% | +0.40 | 1.064 | $373.51 |
| 2026-07-31 | 32.87% | +1.32 | 1.045 | $356.13 |
| 2026-07-30 | 31.55% | +1.36 | 1.035 | $333.66 |
| 2026-07-29 | 33.22% | +2.31 | 1.012 | $336.71 |
| 2026-07-28 | 31.14% | +1.94 | 1.029 | $333.71 |
| 2026-07-27 | 31.21% | +1.66 | 1.034 | $326.56 |
| 2026-07-24 | 30.31% | +1.79 | 1.064 | $319.74 |
| 2026-07-23 | 32.87% | +0.99 | 1.018 | $317.69 |
| 2026-07-22 | 39.57% | +0.99 | 0.900 | $342.09 |
| 2026-07-21 | 40.28% | -0.74 | 0.882 | $347.15 |
| 2026-07-20 | 39.47% | +1.12 | 0.904 | $351.99 |
| 2026-07-17 | 40.34% | +0.85 | 0.891 | $346.77 |
| 2026-07-16 | 41.82% | +0.14 | 0.872 | $354.46 |
| 2026-07-15 | 38.83% | +1.89 | 0.918 | $370.92 |
| 2026-07-14 | 39.78% | +0.25 | 0.883 | $359.51 |
| 2026-07-13 | 39.93% | +0.28 | 0.894 | $352.51 |
| 2026-07-10 | 38.86% | +0.13 | 0.913 | $357.18 |
| 2026-07-09 | 39.75% | +0.60 | 0.888 | $358.89 |
| 2026-07-08 | 39.13% | +1.07 | 0.901 | $361.92 |
| 2026-07-07 | 39.31% | +1.75 | 0.898 | $367.03 |
| 2026-07-06 | 40.12% | +0.66 | 0.892 | $366.46 |
| 2026-07-02 | 39.75% | +0.13 | 0.902 | $359.91 |
| 2026-07-01 | 38.92% | +0.08 | 0.907 | $361.21 |
| 2026-06-30 | 37.65% | +1.23 | 0.935 | $357.37 |
| 2026-06-29 | 38.34% | +2.07 | 0.940 | $353.65 |
| 2026-06-26 | 36.76% | +0.36 | 0.994 | $337.39 |
| 2026-06-25 | 34.59% | +2.19 | 1.024 | $343.71 |
| 2026-06-24 | 36.99% | +0.69 | 0.970 | $345.29 |
| 2026-06-23 | 32.95% | -0.16 | 1.063 | $346.13 |
| 2026-06-22 | 34.13% | -0.94 | 1.054 | $349.68 |
| 2026-06-18 | 31.06% | +0.27 | 1.137 | $368.03 |
| 2026-06-17 | 30.84% | +0.89 | 1.155 | $363.79 |
| 2026-06-16 | 30.31% | +0.26 | 1.149 | $373.25 |
| 2026-06-15 | 30.62% | +0.39 | 1.140 | $369.35 |
| 2026-06-12 | 30.99% | +1.18 | 1.159 | $359.68 |
| 2026-06-11 | 32.12% | +1.48 | 1.135 | $357.77 |
| 2026-06-10 | 31.87% | +1.67 | 1.140 | $356.38 |
| 2026-06-09 | 31.65% | +1.94 | 1.141 | $364.26 |
| 2026-06-08 | 31.39% | +0.58 | 1.151 | $363.31 |
| 2026-06-05 | 32.19% | +1.22 | 1.130 | $368.53 |
| 2026-06-04 | 30.80% | -0.97 | 1.177 | $372.19 |
| 2026-06-03 | 31.64% | -0.64 | 1.133 | $358.99 |
| 2026-06-02 | 31.08% | -0.51 | 1.152 | $361.85 |
| 2026-06-01 | 30.08% | -0.34 | 1.169 | $376.37 |
| 2026-05-29 | 28.99% | -0.40 | 1.190 | $380.34 |
| 2026-05-28 | 28.96% | +0.41 | 1.193 | $390.13 |
| 2026-05-27 | 29.85% | +0.47 | 1.186 | $388.83 |
| 2026-05-26 | 30.34% | +1.01 | 1.181 | $388.88 |
| 2026-05-22 | 29.14% | +1.08 | 1.204 | $382.97 |
| 2026-05-21 | 29.87% | +0.90 | 1.186 | $387.66 |
| 2026-05-20 | 31.15% | +1.37 | 1.150 | $388.91 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 550 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 550 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-11) · 3d (2026-11-13) · 6d (2026-11-16)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 3d | 6d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 42.36% | 40.66% | 33.76% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 40.82% | 39.01% | 32.20% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 39.88% | 38.29% | 31.61% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 39.28% | 38.16% | 31.23% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 39.00% | 38.08% | 31.00% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 38.81% | 37.64% | 30.99% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 38.66% | 37.65% | 31.01% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 38.50% | 37.80% | 30.88% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 38.38% | 37.94% | 30.90% |
| ATM | 38.32% | 38.08% | 31.21% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 38.30% | 38.24% | 31.53% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 38.29% | 38.42% | 31.82% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 38.28% | 38.65% | 31.96% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 38.32% | 38.88% | 32.17% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 38.50% | 39.02% | 32.51% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 38.79% | 39.31% | 32.74% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 39.15% | 40.05% | 33.16% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 39.88% | 41.26% | 34.32% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 43.11% | 43.98% | 36.86% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | 1 | $287.43 | 38.32% | 38.50% | 39.00% | -0.50 | +0.43 | 20 |
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $287.58 | 38.08% | 39.02% | 38.08% | +0.94 | +0.47 | 42 |
| 2026-11-16 | 6 | $287.65 | 31.21% | 32.51% | 31.00% | +1.51 | +0.54 | 35 |
| 2026-11-18 | 8 | $287.68 | 33.04% | 34.37% | 32.79% | +1.59 | +0.54 | 27 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $287.85 | 34.97% | 36.83% | 34.48% | +2.35 | +0.68 | 65 |
| 2026-11-23 | 13 | $287.93 | 32.65% | 34.29% | 32.13% | +2.16 | +0.56 | 37 |
| 2026-11-25 | 15 | $288.10 | 33.06% | 34.65% | 31.65% | +3.01 | +0.10 | 19 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $288.20 | 31.40% | 33.94% | 31.02% | +2.92 | +1.07 | 51 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $288.35 | 31.94% | 33.74% | 31.23% | +2.52 | +0.55 | 35 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $288.44 | 31.98% | 34.00% | 31.31% | +2.70 | +0.68 | 36 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $288.67 | 32.22% | 34.36% | 31.44% | +2.92 | +0.68 | 63 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $288.92 | 32.10% | 34.08% | 31.27% | +2.81 | +0.58 | 32 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $289.65 | 31.82% | 33.72% | 31.22% | +2.49 | +0.65 | 67 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $290.58 | 34.96% | 36.44% | 33.77% | +2.67 | +0.15 | 57 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $291.75 | 34.47% | 36.25% | 33.49% | +2.76 | +0.41 | 66 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $292.45 | 34.46% | 35.83% | 33.30% | +2.53 | +0.11 | 62 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $294.18 | 35.50% | 37.09% | 34.33% | +2.76 | +0.21 | 66 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $295.03 | 35.11% | 36.66% | 34.14% | +2.51 | +0.28 | 95 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $298.13 | 35.31% | 36.60% | 34.03% | +2.57 | +0.00 | 107 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
19 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | 1 天 | $287.43 | 38.32% | $287.49 | 20 |
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $287.58 | 38.08% | $287.75 | 42 |
| 2026-11-16 | 6 天 | $287.65 | 31.21% | $287.88 | 35 |
| 2026-11-18 | 8 天 | $287.68 | 33.04% | $288.02 | 27 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $287.85 | 34.97% | $288.33 | 65 |
| 2026-11-23 | 13 天 | $287.93 | 32.65% | $288.47 | 37 |
| 2026-11-25 | 15 天 | $288.10 | 33.06% | $288.74 | 19 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $288.20 | 31.40% | $288.86 | 51 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $288.35 | 31.94% | $289.31 | 35 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $288.44 | 31.98% | $289.70 | 36 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $288.67 | 32.22% | $290.23 | 63 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $288.92 | 32.10% | $290.72 | 32 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $289.65 | 31.82% | $292.31 | 67 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $290.58 | 34.96% | $295.54 | 57 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $291.75 | 34.47% | $297.94 | 66 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $292.45 | 34.46% | $300.02 | 62 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $294.18 | 35.50% | $304.10 | 66 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $295.03 | 35.11% | $306.14 | 95 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $298.13 | 35.31% | $314.39 | 107 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 31.97%
- 60 天
- 31.87%
- 90 天
- 34.26%
- 180 天
- 35.19%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 550 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 10 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 10 次中 8 次
- 80% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 7.2%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 4.8%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 未说明时间 | 2.9% | -2.2% | 0.75× |
| 2026-10-28 | 收盘后 | 7.8% | -12.6% | 1.62× |
| 2026-07-22 | 收盘后 | 7.4% | -7.1% | 0.97× |
| 2026-04-29 | 收盘后 | 6.9% | +10.0% | 1.45× |
| 2026-02-04 | 收盘后 | 8.1% | -0.5% | 0.07× |
| 2025-10-29 | 收盘后 | 8.1% | +2.5% | 0.31× |
| 2025-07-23 | 收盘后 | 7.1% | +1.0% | 0.14× |
| 2025-04-24 | 收盘后 | 7.6% | +1.7% | 0.22× |
| 2025-02-04 | 收盘后 | 8.2% | -7.3% | 0.89× |
| 2024-10-29 | 收盘后 | 8.4% | +2.8% | 0.33× |
| 2024-07-23 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-24 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。