股票 · 期权分析
AVGO 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $331.98
- 30D ATM IV
- 55.71%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 94
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +4.68
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.868
▲ +1.31 pts 较前一交易日
概览
AVGO 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 55.7%,相当于未来一个月约 ±16.0% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 94% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 4.68 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 13%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2026-12-02(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±8.9% 的波动,AVGO 实际平均波动 20.9%,6 次中有 2 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 55.71%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +4.68
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.67
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.868
对应 30 天内约 ±16.0% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.5%。
高于过去一年中 94% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 4.68 个点。
高于过去一年中 73% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.67 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 13%。
高于过去一年中 12% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 94%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 57%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 95%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 57%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $331.98
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $332.95
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 50.49%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 48.36%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 48.12%
- 使用的到期日数
- 19
- 总未平仓量
- 1,891,175
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.03
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 348 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 55.71% | +4.68 | 0.868 | $331.98 |
| 2026-11-09 | 54.40% | +5.84 | 0.881 | $319.48 |
| 2026-11-06 | 55.65% | +9.69 | 0.914 | $293.69 |
| 2026-11-05 | 56.57% | +8.73 | 0.904 | $291.53 |
| 2026-11-04 | 43.16% | +3.15 | 1.059 | $325.48 |
| 2026-11-03 | 44.84% | +4.84 | 1.034 | $332.13 |
| 2026-11-02 | 46.29% | +5.31 | 1.029 | $322.23 |
| 2026-10-30 | 43.28% | +6.13 | 1.059 | $326.08 |
| 2026-10-29 | 39.74% | +0.76 | 1.118 | $345.00 |
| 2026-10-28 | 40.44% | +0.96 | 1.087 | $351.81 |
| 2026-10-27 | 40.30% | +1.31 | 1.083 | $342.33 |
| 2026-10-26 | 40.59% | +1.92 | 1.072 | $329.17 |
| 2026-10-23 | 40.92% | +2.67 | 1.058 | $321.68 |
| 2026-10-22 | 42.47% | +2.27 | 1.026 | $323.24 |
| 2026-10-21 | 40.40% | +1.30 | 1.046 | $337.80 |
| 2026-10-20 | 39.73% | +1.88 | 1.057 | $334.37 |
| 2026-10-19 | 38.27% | +2.48 | 1.065 | $334.59 |
| 2026-10-16 | 38.82% | +3.48 | 1.092 | $328.75 |
| 2026-10-15 | 39.04% | +0.69 | 1.077 | $344.33 |
| 2026-10-14 | 39.11% | +1.02 | 1.069 | $346.25 |
| 2026-10-13 | 37.98% | +0.60 | 1.090 | $357.31 |
| 2026-10-09 | 36.12% | +0.26 | 1.139 | $361.54 |
| 2026-10-08 | 38.27% | +0.83 | 1.099 | $360.14 |
| 2026-10-07 | 37.36% | -0.91 | 1.132 | $376.51 |
| 2026-10-06 | 37.20% | -1.04 | 1.126 | $375.81 |
| 2026-10-05 | 36.28% | -0.13 | 1.137 | $362.51 |
| 2026-10-02 | 35.20% | +0.35 | 1.164 | $355.14 |
| 2026-10-01 | 35.63% | -0.01 | 1.157 | $343.64 |
| 2026-09-30 | 35.93% | -0.07 | 1.162 | $351.19 |
| 2026-09-29 | 36.08% | +0.06 | 1.162 | $355.10 |
| 2026-09-28 | 35.45% | -0.19 | 1.162 | $349.57 |
| 2026-09-25 | 33.98% | -0.80 | 1.212 | $352.81 |
| 2026-09-24 | 34.90% | -2.13 | 1.192 | $350.36 |
| 2026-09-23 | 35.66% | -1.15 | 1.175 | $354.99 |
| 2026-09-22 | 36.82% | -1.56 | 1.151 | $364.54 |
| 2026-09-21 | 36.64% | -0.37 | 1.166 | $362.66 |
| 2026-09-18 | 34.78% | -0.16 | 1.176 | $357.61 |
| 2026-09-17 | 34.48% | +0.04 | 1.162 | $347.30 |
| 2026-09-16 | 35.93% | +0.47 | 1.150 | $339.51 |
| 2026-09-15 | 35.46% | +0.31 | 1.150 | $339.27 |
| 2026-09-14 | 36.08% | +0.47 | 1.159 | $344.72 |
| 2026-09-11 | 34.35% | -0.73 | 1.182 | $361.99 |
| 2026-09-10 | 36.48% | +0.82 | 1.127 | $360.83 |
| 2026-09-09 | 37.22% | -0.93 | 1.134 | $364.38 |
| 2026-09-08 | 39.49% | +0.61 | 1.086 | $368.56 |
| 2026-09-04 | 35.99% | -2.12 | 1.136 | $357.90 |
| 2026-09-03 | 36.54% | -1.47 | 1.083 | $357.16 |
| 2026-09-02 | 49.56% | -1.98 | 0.913 | $367.24 |
| 2026-09-01 | 50.98% | -1.67 | 0.903 | $369.68 |
| 2026-08-31 | 50.73% | -2.36 | 0.912 | $370.34 |
| 2026-08-28 | 48.54% | -2.16 | 0.935 | $368.79 |
| 2026-08-27 | 50.10% | -0.01 | 0.921 | $371.54 |
| 2026-08-26 | 51.87% | -2.18 | 0.897 | $355.59 |
| 2026-08-25 | 50.28% | -2.00 | 0.907 | $356.74 |
| 2026-08-24 | 50.69% | -2.33 | 0.909 | $358.76 |
| 2026-08-21 | 50.75% | -1.50 | 0.915 | $368.45 |
| 2026-08-20 | 50.34% | -0.19 | 0.919 | $364.03 |
| 2026-08-19 | 49.64% | -0.27 | 0.929 | $362.48 |
| 2026-08-18 | 49.45% | +0.40 | 0.944 | $380.00 |
| 2026-08-17 | 49.81% | -0.28 | 0.941 | $392.43 |
| 2025-10-22 | 45.54% | +4.84 | 1.055 | $340.30 |
| 2025-10-21 | 45.06% | +4.51 | 1.060 | $342.66 |
| 2025-10-20 | 46.22% | +5.04 | 1.042 | $349.24 |
| 2025-10-17 | 47.07% | +5.28 | 1.051 | $349.33 |
| 2025-10-16 | 50.72% | +3.95 | 1.003 | $354.15 |
| 2025-10-15 | 49.08% | +4.27 | 1.025 | $351.33 |
| 2025-10-14 | 48.15% | +5.01 | 1.031 | $344.13 |
| 2025-10-10 | 49.66% | +8.44 | 1.019 | $324.63 |
| 2025-10-09 | 46.36% | +2.43 | 1.052 | $345.02 |
| 2025-10-08 | 46.89% | +1.78 | 1.031 | $345.50 |
| 2025-10-07 | 46.04% | +2.88 | 1.046 | $336.41 |
| 2025-10-06 | 46.53% | +2.02 | 1.038 | $335.49 |
| 2025-10-03 | 41.95% | +3.19 | 1.095 | $338.37 |
| 2025-10-02 | 42.96% | +1.10 | 1.087 | $338.18 |
| 2025-10-01 | 42.08% | +1.88 | 1.089 | $333.39 |
| 2025-09-30 | 41.17% | +2.15 | 1.103 | $329.91 |
| 2025-09-29 | 41.71% | +2.75 | 1.092 | $327.90 |
| 2025-09-26 | 39.56% | +2.87 | 1.131 | $334.53 |
| 2025-09-25 | 40.76% | +2.34 | 1.115 | $336.10 |
| 2025-09-24 | 40.78% | +2.05 | 1.113 | $339.31 |
| 2025-09-23 | 41.82% | +2.70 | 1.093 | $338.94 |
| 2025-09-22 | 42.28% | +1.71 | 1.084 | $338.79 |
| 2025-09-19 | 38.69% | +1.60 | 1.132 | $344.94 |
| 2025-09-18 | 39.11% | +1.87 | 1.116 | $345.35 |
| 2025-09-17 | 39.29% | +1.66 | 1.108 | $346.17 |
| 2025-09-16 | 38.30% | +1.94 | 1.121 | $360.00 |
| 2025-09-15 | 38.24% | +0.86 | 1.110 | $364.09 |
| 2025-09-12 | 37.38% | +1.93 | 1.118 | $359.87 |
| 2025-09-11 | 37.70% | +1.23 | 1.109 | $359.63 |
| 2025-09-10 | 40.14% | +1.40 | 1.070 | $369.57 |
| 2025-09-09 | 36.67% | +1.72 | 1.105 | $336.67 |
| 2025-09-08 | 35.94% | +3.03 | 1.117 | $345.65 |
| 2025-09-05 | 36.40% | +2.46 | 1.086 | $334.89 |
| 2025-09-04 | 43.90% | +3.99 | 0.963 | $306.10 |
| 2025-09-03 | 46.73% | +4.22 | 0.926 | $302.39 |
| 2025-09-02 | 47.70% | +3.65 | 0.918 | $298.24 |
| 2025-08-29 | 46.09% | +4.23 | 0.930 | $297.39 |
| 2025-08-28 | 45.08% | +3.31 | 0.924 | $308.65 |
| 2025-08-27 | 48.17% | +6.11 | 0.905 | $300.25 |
| 2025-08-26 | 48.39% | +4.71 | 0.888 | $298.01 |
| 2025-08-25 | 48.48% | +5.05 | 0.890 | $294.23 |
| 2025-08-22 | 48.17% | +5.29 | 0.890 | $294.00 |
| 2025-08-21 | 49.75% | +6.02 | 0.884 | $289.60 |
| 2025-08-20 | 49.43% | +5.72 | 0.882 | $291.17 |
| 2025-08-19 | 49.87% | +5.49 | 0.879 | $294.91 |
| 2025-08-18 | 47.43% | +4.73 | 0.894 | $305.76 |
| 2025-08-15 | 47.62% | +4.28 | 0.892 | $306.34 |
| 2025-08-14 | 47.18% | +3.46 | 0.889 | $311.23 |
| 2025-08-13 | 46.76% | +3.55 | 0.887 | $309.09 |
| 2025-08-12 | 46.14% | +2.84 | 0.885 | $312.83 |
| 2025-08-11 | 46.85% | +3.26 | 0.894 | $303.90 |
| 2025-08-08 | 46.55% | +3.44 | 0.900 | $304.97 |
| 2025-08-07 | 47.62% | +3.90 | 0.896 | $303.76 |
| 2025-08-06 | 48.33% | +4.05 | 0.881 | $301.67 |
| 2025-08-05 | 47.10% | +4.94 | 0.908 | $292.93 |
| 2025-08-04 | 44.06% | +4.92 | 0.963 | $297.72 |
| 2025-08-01 | 43.08% | +5.03 | 1.004 | $288.64 |
| 2025-07-31 | 39.94% | +3.69 | 1.045 | $293.70 |
| 2025-07-30 | 36.99% | +3.16 | 1.100 | $302.62 |
| 2025-07-29 | 36.35% | +3.44 | 1.112 | $297.42 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 348 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-11) · 3d (2026-11-13) · 6d (2026-11-16)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 3d | 6d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 71.81% | 66.12% | 52.77% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 70.80% | 65.47% | 52.51% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 69.93% | 65.23% | 52.36% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 69.21% | 65.07% | 52.32% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 68.61% | 65.18% | 52.24% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 68.19% | 65.00% | 52.25% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 67.71% | 65.14% | 52.37% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 67.47% | 65.17% | 52.47% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 67.54% | 65.26% | 52.69% |
| ATM | 67.55% | 65.55% | 52.70% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 67.51% | 65.63% | 53.10% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 67.55% | 65.93% | 53.31% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 67.68% | 66.47% | 53.61% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 67.98% | 66.94% | 54.05% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 68.40% | 67.75% | 54.46% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 69.01% | 68.65% | 55.42% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 69.89% | 70.02% | 56.76% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 71.27% | 72.47% | 58.80% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 73.56% | 77.97% | 63.21% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | 1 | $331.50 | 67.55% | 68.40% | 68.61% | -0.21 | +0.96 | 31 |
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $331.65 | 65.55% | 67.75% | 65.18% | +2.57 | +0.92 | 63 |
| 2026-11-16 | 6 | $331.70 | 52.70% | 54.46% | 52.24% | +2.22 | +0.65 | 44 |
| 2026-11-18 | 8 | $331.92 | 55.73% | 57.80% | 54.94% | +2.86 | +0.64 | 48 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $331.92 | 57.52% | 59.36% | 56.58% | +2.78 | +0.45 | 65 |
| 2026-11-23 | 13 | $332.42 | 51.86% | 55.38% | 51.42% | +3.96 | +1.54 | 42 |
| 2026-11-25 | 15 | $332.33 | 52.99% | 54.92% | 52.06% | +2.86 | +0.50 | 22 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $332.25 | 51.17% | 53.56% | 49.62% | +3.94 | +0.43 | 53 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $332.51 | 49.55% | 51.77% | 47.73% | +4.03 | +0.21 | 42 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $333.02 | 56.46% | 59.56% | 54.80% | +4.76 | +0.72 | 52 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $333.06 | 54.82% | 57.75% | 53.03% | +4.73 | +0.57 | 54 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $333.09 | 53.40% | 56.30% | 50.94% | +5.36 | +0.22 | 52 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $333.30 | 49.73% | 52.02% | 48.36% | +3.67 | +0.46 | 51 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $335.22 | 47.94% | 50.20% | 46.06% | +4.14 | +0.19 | 45 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $336.37 | 49.27% | 51.31% | 47.43% | +3.88 | +0.10 | 54 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $337.15 | 48.07% | 50.46% | 46.65% | +3.81 | +0.49 | 42 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $338.03 | 48.14% | 49.68% | 46.30% | +3.38 | -0.15 | 42 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $339.23 | 48.18% | 49.94% | 47.10% | +2.84 | +0.34 | 68 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $343.09 | 47.44% | 49.17% | 46.34% | +2.84 | +0.32 | 57 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
19 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | 1 天 | $331.50 | 67.55% | $331.71 | 31 |
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $331.65 | 65.55% | $332.24 | 63 |
| 2026-11-16 | 6 天 | $331.70 | 52.70% | $332.46 | 44 |
| 2026-11-18 | 8 天 | $331.92 | 55.73% | $333.06 | 48 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $331.92 | 57.52% | $333.43 | 65 |
| 2026-11-23 | 13 天 | $332.42 | 51.86% | $334.02 | 42 |
| 2026-11-25 | 15 天 | $332.33 | 52.99% | $334.25 | 22 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $332.25 | 51.17% | $334.29 | 53 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $332.51 | 49.55% | $335.20 | 42 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $333.02 | 56.46% | $337.56 | 52 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $333.06 | 54.82% | $338.31 | 54 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $333.09 | 53.40% | $338.87 | 52 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $333.30 | 49.73% | $340.84 | 51 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $335.22 | 47.94% | $346.05 | 45 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $336.37 | 49.27% | $351.11 | 54 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $337.15 | 48.07% | $354.32 | 42 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $338.03 | 48.14% | $359.27 | 42 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $339.23 | 48.18% | $363.70 | 68 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $343.09 | 47.44% | $377.61 | 57 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 55.71%
- 60 天
- 50.49%
- 90 天
- 48.36%
- 180 天
- 48.12%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 2 次
- 33% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 8.9%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 20.9%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 收盘后 | 9.9% | -2.7% | 0.28× |
| 2026-06-03 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-11 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-04 | 收盘后 | 7.0% | +28.2% | 4.00× |
| 2025-06-05 | 收盘后 | 8.3% | +51.0% | 6.11× |
| 2025-03-06 | 收盘后 | 11.4% | +8.6% | 0.76× |
| 2024-12-12 | 收盘后 | 9.2% | +24.4% | 2.64× |
| 2024-09-05 | 收盘后 | 7.7% | -10.4% | 1.35× |
| 2024-06-12 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-31 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。