股票 · 期权分析
XOM 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $164.47
- 30D ATM IV
- 29.55%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 54
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +1.61
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.990
▼ -0.55 pts 较前一交易日
概览
XOM 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 29.5%,相当于未来一个月约 ±8.5% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 54% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 1.61 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 29.55%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +1.61
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.23
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.990
对应 30 天内约 ±8.5% 的波动，平常一天约 ±1.9%。
高于过去一年中 54% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 1.61 个点。
高于过去一年中 66% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.23 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
高于过去一年中 44% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 54%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 64%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 73%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 31%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $164.47
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $163.84
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 28.99%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 29.26%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 29.25%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 770,417
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.61
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 550 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 29.55% | +1.61 | 0.990 | $164.47 |
| 2026-11-09 | 30.10% | +3.01 | 0.995 | $164.73 |
| 2026-11-06 | 30.57% | +2.31 | 0.984 | $165.87 |
| 2026-11-05 | 32.13% | +1.28 | 0.963 | $165.30 |
| 2026-11-04 | 31.09% | +2.25 | 0.960 | $169.27 |
| 2026-11-03 | 32.14% | +1.98 | 0.946 | $177.46 |
| 2026-11-02 | 32.75% | +1.98 | 0.937 | $179.67 |
| 2026-10-30 | 29.56% | +1.70 | 0.988 | $187.25 |
| 2026-10-29 | 29.16% | +0.43 | 0.985 | $183.29 |
| 2026-10-28 | 28.85% | +1.45 | 1.000 | $182.02 |
| 2026-10-27 | 29.79% | +0.58 | 0.969 | $179.91 |
| 2026-10-26 | 29.84% | +1.14 | 0.958 | $184.54 |
| 2026-10-23 | 30.95% | +1.04 | 0.948 | $183.21 |
| 2026-10-22 | 31.34% | +3.14 | 0.922 | $178.23 |
| 2026-10-21 | 30.38% | +1.93 | 0.923 | $178.09 |
| 2026-10-20 | 30.88% | +0.50 | 0.911 | $177.86 |
| 2026-10-19 | 29.58% | +1.51 | 0.947 | $178.28 |
| 2026-10-16 | 29.73% | +0.72 | 0.943 | $178.98 |
| 2026-10-15 | 29.60% | +0.84 | 0.943 | $174.68 |
| 2026-10-14 | 31.03% | +1.12 | 0.912 | $177.01 |
| 2026-10-13 | 28.51% | +1.97 | 0.969 | $174.08 |
| 2026-10-09 | 28.95% | +1.71 | 0.967 | $168.94 |
| 2026-10-08 | 29.07% | +0.97 | 0.987 | $168.50 |
| 2026-10-07 | 29.00% | +0.90 | 0.977 | $164.05 |
| 2026-10-06 | 29.21% | +1.70 | 0.963 | $164.48 |
| 2026-10-05 | 28.42% | +2.01 | 1.004 | $164.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | 29.08% | +0.83 | 0.992 | $164.01 |
| 2026-10-01 | 29.65% | +0.96 | 0.980 | $163.82 |
| 2026-09-30 | 31.04% | +0.57 | 0.946 | $162.75 |
| 2026-09-29 | 29.70% | +1.37 | 0.989 | $161.35 |
| 2026-09-28 | 30.63% | +1.21 | 0.974 | $162.52 |
| 2026-09-25 | 28.07% | +1.64 | 1.057 | $160.59 |
| 2026-09-24 | 29.07% | +1.51 | 1.030 | $162.14 |
| 2026-09-23 | 28.97% | +0.89 | 1.026 | $161.23 |
| 2026-09-22 | 29.35% | +1.03 | 1.017 | $158.71 |
| 2026-09-21 | 29.72% | +0.80 | 1.004 | $158.30 |
| 2026-09-18 | 28.46% | +0.97 | 1.045 | $163.54 |
| 2026-09-17 | 28.62% | +1.10 | 1.043 | $163.27 |
| 2026-09-16 | 29.95% | +1.18 | 1.027 | $163.32 |
| 2026-09-15 | 31.00% | +1.44 | 1.006 | $169.32 |
| 2026-09-14 | 30.51% | +0.82 | 0.995 | $165.08 |
| 2026-09-11 | 29.36% | +0.91 | 1.034 | $165.99 |
| 2026-09-10 | 29.66% | +0.96 | 1.028 | $165.23 |
| 2026-09-09 | 29.37% | +0.93 | 1.038 | $164.23 |
| 2026-09-08 | 29.30% | +0.97 | 1.011 | $160.66 |
| 2026-09-04 | 26.75% | +1.05 | 1.073 | $159.47 |
| 2026-09-03 | 27.32% | +0.72 | 1.046 | $162.21 |
| 2026-09-02 | 27.94% | +1.19 | 1.046 | $164.15 |
| 2026-09-01 | 29.16% | +1.16 | 1.020 | $164.55 |
| 2026-08-31 | 27.82% | +1.29 | 1.041 | $160.95 |
| 2026-08-28 | 26.52% | +1.78 | 1.065 | $156.71 |
| 2026-08-27 | 26.94% | +0.72 | 1.058 | $156.44 |
| 2026-08-26 | 27.14% | +0.66 | 1.065 | $158.19 |
| 2026-08-25 | 28.52% | +2.11 | 0.999 | $160.64 |
| 2026-08-24 | 26.83% | +0.98 | 1.087 | $164.05 |
| 2026-08-21 | 28.01% | +1.14 | 1.058 | $165.11 |
| 2026-08-20 | 27.76% | +0.59 | 1.061 | $166.15 |
| 2026-08-19 | 26.70% | +0.50 | 1.064 | $164.77 |
| 2026-08-18 | 28.14% | +0.63 | 1.041 | $165.56 |
| 2026-08-17 | 27.73% | +1.03 | 1.036 | $161.46 |
| 2026-08-14 | 25.04% | +1.16 | 1.130 | $160.10 |
| 2026-08-13 | 27.82% | -0.61 | 1.025 | $158.61 |
| 2026-08-12 | 27.10% | -1.15 | 1.060 | $159.75 |
| 2026-08-11 | 28.19% | +0.32 | 1.027 | $159.80 |
| 2026-08-10 | 29.53% | +0.12 | 0.999 | $159.79 |
| 2026-08-07 | 28.09% | +1.82 | 1.052 | $153.04 |
| 2026-08-06 | 29.54% | +0.38 | 0.994 | $154.84 |
| 2026-08-05 | 28.82% | -0.07 | 1.016 | $151.63 |
| 2026-08-04 | 30.16% | +1.17 | 0.975 | $153.96 |
| 2026-08-03 | 31.52% | -0.13 | 0.951 | $155.06 |
| 2026-07-31 | 30.28% | -0.02 | 0.970 | $155.44 |
| 2026-07-30 | 33.03% | -0.30 | 0.927 | $156.97 |
| 2026-07-29 | 32.20% | +0.83 | 0.943 | $156.75 |
| 2026-07-28 | 32.38% | -0.10 | 0.927 | $153.04 |
| 2026-07-27 | 32.98% | +0.41 | 0.928 | $154.77 |
| 2026-07-24 | 33.23% | -0.88 | 0.938 | $156.94 |
| 2026-07-23 | 33.37% | +0.24 | 0.935 | $156.89 |
| 2026-07-22 | 32.93% | -0.26 | 0.928 | $154.45 |
| 2026-07-21 | 31.92% | +1.04 | 0.928 | $151.71 |
| 2026-07-20 | 32.96% | -0.59 | 0.922 | $148.36 |
| 2026-07-17 | 32.85% | -0.97 | 0.924 | $147.36 |
| 2026-07-16 | 29.94% | -1.15 | 0.955 | $145.95 |
| 2026-07-15 | 30.04% | -0.63 | 0.958 | $144.51 |
| 2026-07-14 | 30.14% | -0.79 | 0.951 | $145.09 |
| 2026-07-13 | 32.18% | -1.24 | 0.918 | $144.51 |
| 2026-07-10 | 28.10% | -1.37 | 0.975 | $138.88 |
| 2026-07-09 | 28.74% | -1.33 | 0.966 | $137.46 |
| 2026-07-08 | 30.80% | -2.07 | 0.922 | $141.13 |
| 2026-07-07 | 30.73% | -1.64 | 0.935 | $141.69 |
| 2026-07-06 | 28.21% | -0.07 | 0.953 | $136.44 |
| 2026-07-02 | 27.88% | +0.21 | 0.998 | $137.09 |
| 2026-07-01 | 27.73% | -0.05 | 0.998 | $136.28 |
| 2026-06-30 | 29.41% | -1.32 | 0.965 | $136.72 |
| 2026-06-29 | 28.27% | +0.32 | 0.992 | $136.06 |
| 2026-06-26 | 26.59% | -0.01 | 1.052 | $136.54 |
| 2026-06-25 | 28.92% | +1.09 | 0.994 | $137.55 |
| 2026-06-24 | 28.19% | +0.48 | 1.020 | $136.90 |
| 2026-06-23 | 28.00% | -0.64 | 1.000 | $139.73 |
| 2026-06-22 | 28.53% | +0.39 | 0.987 | $138.47 |
| 2026-06-18 | 29.19% | +0.45 | 0.995 | $137.81 |
| 2026-06-17 | 28.22% | +0.36 | 1.026 | $140.74 |
| 2026-06-16 | 27.82% | +0.30 | 1.045 | $141.86 |
| 2026-06-15 | 29.05% | -0.90 | 1.039 | $140.92 |
| 2026-06-12 | 29.62% | +0.07 | 1.035 | $147.01 |
| 2026-06-11 | 30.64% | -0.18 | 1.012 | $146.60 |
| 2026-06-10 | 33.38% | +0.17 | 0.987 | $150.62 |
| 2026-06-09 | 32.02% | +0.43 | 1.016 | $148.91 |
| 2026-06-08 | 32.08% | +0.12 | 1.017 | $151.75 |
| 2026-06-05 | 31.66% | -0.76 | 1.035 | $149.92 |
| 2026-06-04 | 30.75% | -0.04 | 1.047 | $152.04 |
| 2026-06-03 | 31.59% | -0.72 | 1.042 | $152.53 |
| 2026-06-02 | 31.66% | -0.93 | 1.014 | $149.56 |
| 2026-06-01 | 31.23% | -0.20 | 1.009 | $149.38 |
| 2026-05-29 | 29.41% | -0.68 | 1.017 | $145.26 |
| 2026-05-28 | 28.83% | -0.62 | 1.047 | $146.96 |
| 2026-05-27 | 30.19% | +0.35 | 1.012 | $147.90 |
| 2026-05-26 | 31.71% | +2.38 | 0.996 | $149.81 |
| 2026-05-22 | 31.43% | +0.29 | 1.014 | $154.92 |
| 2026-05-21 | 31.10% | +0.49 | 1.020 | $155.29 |
| 2026-05-20 | 31.57% | -0.08 | 0.999 | $156.28 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 550 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 550 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 34.20% | 31.84% | 28.68% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 33.75% | 31.20% | 28.29% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 33.66% | 30.95% | 28.22% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 33.67% | 30.74% | 28.37% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 33.68% | 30.69% | 28.42% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 33.71% | 30.84% | 28.49% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 33.86% | 30.96% | 28.62% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 34.09% | 31.02% | 28.73% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 34.34% | 31.12% | 28.84% |
| ATM | 34.59% | 31.68% | 29.08% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 34.86% | 32.34% | 29.44% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 35.19% | 32.40% | 29.68% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 35.57% | 32.40% | 29.89% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 36.08% | 32.50% | 30.10% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 36.76% | 33.00% | 30.39% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 37.56% | 33.67% | 30.94% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 38.47% | 34.52% | 32.50% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 39.71% | 35.44% | 32.48% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 41.82% | 37.65% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $164.53 | 34.59% | 36.76% | 33.68% | +3.08 | +0.63 | 13 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $163.67 | 31.68% | 33.00% | 30.69% | +2.31 | +0.17 | 19 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $163.73 | 29.08% | 30.39% | 28.42% | +1.97 | +0.32 | 13 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $163.82 | 29.23% | 30.39% | 28.46% | +1.93 | +0.20 | 10 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $163.85 | 29.59% | 30.61% | 29.04% | +1.57 | +0.24 | 10 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $164.15 | 29.25% | 30.82% | 28.32% | +2.49 | +0.32 | 17 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $163.89 | 30.28% | 30.30% | 29.22% | +1.08 | -0.52 | 11 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $164.62 | 28.66% | 30.11% | 27.94% | +2.17 | +0.36 | 19 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $164.80 | 29.43% | 30.84% | 28.11% | +2.73 | +0.04 | 18 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $164.75 | 29.18% | 30.44% | 28.29% | +2.15 | +0.18 | 20 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $165.28 | 29.23% | 30.33% | 28.51% | +1.82 | +0.19 | 21 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $165.54 | 29.27% | 30.40% | 28.44% | +1.96 | +0.15 | 28 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $166.45 | 28.97% | 30.27% | 28.35% | +1.91 | +0.34 | 28 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $164.53 | 34.59% | $164.61 | 13 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $163.67 | 31.68% | $163.90 | 19 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $163.73 | 29.08% | $164.05 | 13 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $163.82 | 29.23% | $164.28 | 10 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $163.85 | 29.59% | $164.46 | 10 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $164.15 | 29.25% | $164.88 | 17 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $163.89 | 30.28% | $164.80 | 11 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $164.62 | 28.66% | $165.85 | 19 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $164.80 | 29.43% | $166.78 | 18 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $164.75 | 29.18% | $167.24 | 20 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $165.28 | 29.23% | $168.35 | 21 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $165.54 | 29.27% | $169.85 | 28 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $166.45 | 28.97% | $172.51 | 28 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 29.55%
- 60 天
- 28.99%
- 90 天
- 29.26%
- 180 天
- 29.25%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 550 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 2 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 2 次中 2 次
- 100% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 5.2%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 1.6%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 开盘前 | 5.1% | +2.2% | 0.43× |
| 2026-07-31 | 开盘前 | 5.3% | -1.0% | 0.18× |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。