股票 · 期权分析
AMD 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $515.21
- 30D ATM IV
- 65.28%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 92
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +5.04
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.933
▲ +1.27 pts 较前一交易日
概览
AMD 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 65.3%,相当于未来一个月约 ±18.7% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 92% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 5.04 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 7%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-02(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±10.5% 的波动,AMD 实际平均波动 124.3%,5 次中有 3 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 65.28%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +5.04
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +1.15
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.933
对应 30 天内约 ±18.7% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.1%。
高于过去一年中 92% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 5.04 个点。
高于过去一年中 88% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 1.15 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 7%。
高于过去一年中 37% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 92%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 61%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 94%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 63%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $515.21
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $513.61
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 60.75%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 60.91%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 58.26%
- 使用的到期日数
- 17
- 总未平仓量
- 2,366,118
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.89
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 348 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 65.28% | +5.04 | 0.933 | $515.21 |
| 2026-11-09 | 64.00% | +6.63 | 0.923 | $508.58 |
| 2026-11-06 | 68.20% | +9.94 | 0.890 | $449.04 |
| 2026-11-05 | 72.47% | +12.64 | 0.869 | $404.40 |
| 2026-11-04 | 60.46% | +3.56 | 0.929 | $488.78 |
| 2026-11-03 | 65.26% | +3.78 | 0.883 | $483.90 |
| 2026-11-02 | 68.77% | +3.60 | 0.859 | $466.84 |
| 2026-10-30 | 64.33% | +4.71 | 0.883 | $504.80 |
| 2026-10-29 | 59.43% | -0.06 | 0.909 | $566.42 |
| 2026-10-28 | 59.25% | +0.92 | 0.908 | $578.44 |
| 2026-10-27 | 60.54% | +0.95 | 0.889 | $560.26 |
| 2026-10-26 | 60.62% | +2.71 | 0.891 | $531.28 |
| 2026-10-23 | 61.08% | +3.21 | 0.888 | $516.79 |
| 2026-10-22 | 63.20% | +3.53 | 0.868 | $507.93 |
| 2026-10-21 | 60.64% | +1.43 | 0.869 | $552.72 |
| 2026-10-20 | 60.29% | +1.67 | 0.868 | $534.74 |
| 2026-10-19 | 58.54% | +2.70 | 0.881 | $538.05 |
| 2026-10-16 | 59.73% | +3.27 | 0.876 | $528.75 |
| 2026-10-15 | 58.62% | +1.56 | 0.871 | $562.23 |
| 2026-10-14 | 58.66% | +1.77 | 0.876 | $570.82 |
| 2026-10-13 | 56.76% | +0.36 | 0.894 | $605.53 |
| 2026-10-09 | 54.53% | +0.35 | 0.908 | $608.10 |
| 2026-10-08 | 56.32% | +0.71 | 0.897 | $620.68 |
| 2026-10-07 | 55.92% | -0.96 | 0.918 | $645.86 |
| 2026-10-06 | 53.99% | -0.53 | 0.939 | $649.42 |
| 2026-10-05 | 52.92% | -1.18 | 0.952 | $631.75 |
| 2026-10-02 | 50.52% | -0.89 | 1.024 | $633.91 |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.12% | +0.12 | 1.037 | $615.73 |
| 2026-09-30 | 51.27% | -0.73 | 1.050 | $611.76 |
| 2026-09-29 | 51.12% | -1.33 | 1.048 | $607.57 |
| 2026-09-28 | 51.86% | -1.01 | 1.062 | $607.87 |
| 2026-09-25 | 51.63% | -0.86 | 1.084 | $630.63 |
| 2026-09-24 | 52.79% | -1.28 | 1.069 | $629.26 |
| 2026-09-23 | 51.79% | -0.93 | 1.093 | $614.61 |
| 2026-09-22 | 53.21% | -2.23 | 1.082 | $623.77 |
| 2026-09-21 | 55.64% | -1.85 | 1.058 | $615.52 |
| 2026-09-18 | 49.21% | +0.57 | 1.118 | $559.82 |
| 2026-09-17 | 51.19% | -0.01 | 1.090 | $545.09 |
| 2026-09-16 | 51.14% | +1.41 | 1.081 | $512.50 |
| 2026-09-15 | 50.30% | +1.00 | 1.099 | $504.20 |
| 2026-09-14 | 50.56% | -0.03 | 1.088 | $493.41 |
| 2026-09-11 | 48.12% | +1.01 | 1.144 | $516.13 |
| 2026-09-10 | 50.18% | +0.30 | 1.111 | $503.60 |
| 2026-09-09 | 50.93% | -0.19 | 1.102 | $521.10 |
| 2026-09-08 | 53.44% | -0.38 | 1.066 | $505.74 |
| 2026-09-04 | 48.40% | -0.31 | 1.118 | $477.57 |
| 2026-09-03 | 47.37% | -0.42 | 1.095 | $456.16 |
| 2026-09-02 | 47.89% | +0.29 | 1.101 | $457.06 |
| 2026-09-01 | 47.59% | +1.17 | 1.129 | $459.61 |
| 2026-08-31 | 48.09% | +0.60 | 1.121 | $470.72 |
| 2026-08-28 | 47.84% | -1.23 | 1.124 | $465.58 |
| 2026-08-27 | 51.35% | -0.46 | 1.098 | $476.67 |
| 2026-08-26 | 55.43% | -0.79 | 1.062 | $480.93 |
| 2026-08-25 | 53.97% | -0.88 | 1.086 | $479.18 |
| 2026-08-24 | 52.56% | +0.69 | 1.099 | $456.75 |
| 2026-08-21 | 51.92% | -0.65 | 1.135 | $473.25 |
| 2026-08-20 | 54.23% | +0.23 | 1.093 | $469.46 |
| 2026-08-19 | 53.27% | -0.79 | 1.103 | $466.42 |
| 2026-08-18 | 53.95% | -0.03 | 1.100 | $484.39 |
| 2026-08-17 | 54.50% | -1.19 | 1.099 | $506.00 |
| 2025-10-22 | 64.81% | +1.86 | 0.867 | $230.23 |
| 2025-10-21 | 64.96% | +1.13 | 0.883 | $238.03 |
| 2025-10-20 | 65.95% | +1.65 | 0.871 | $240.56 |
| 2025-10-17 | 66.93% | +0.85 | 0.863 | $233.08 |
| 2025-10-16 | 69.66% | +0.81 | 0.854 | $234.56 |
| 2025-10-15 | 70.34% | -1.81 | 0.838 | $238.60 |
| 2025-10-14 | 65.75% | +0.75 | 0.855 | $218.09 |
| 2025-10-10 | 67.41% | +3.48 | 0.851 | $214.90 |
| 2025-10-09 | 68.06% | -2.67 | 0.867 | $232.89 |
| 2025-10-08 | 72.64% | -7.15 | 0.861 | $235.56 |
| 2025-10-07 | 63.64% | -2.75 | 0.871 | $211.51 |
| 2025-10-06 | 66.94% | -6.22 | 0.855 | $203.71 |
| 2025-10-03 | 51.51% | -0.16 | 0.987 | $164.67 |
| 2025-10-02 | 50.60% | -0.83 | 0.998 | $169.73 |
| 2025-10-01 | 48.56% | -0.38 | 1.020 | $164.01 |
| 2025-09-30 | 46.82% | +0.20 | 1.041 | $161.79 |
| 2025-09-29 | 46.86% | +0.05 | 1.047 | $161.36 |
| 2025-09-26 | 43.93% | +1.13 | 1.106 | $159.46 |
| 2025-09-25 | 45.67% | +0.45 | 1.080 | $161.27 |
| 2025-09-24 | 45.60% | +0.02 | 1.083 | $160.88 |
| 2025-09-23 | 46.13% | -0.59 | 1.074 | $160.90 |
| 2025-09-22 | 45.39% | -1.21 | 1.078 | $159.79 |
| 2025-09-19 | 43.31% | -0.86 | 1.108 | $157.39 |
| 2025-09-18 | 44.68% | -0.74 | 1.083 | $157.92 |
| 2025-09-17 | 43.11% | +0.17 | 1.092 | $159.16 |
| 2025-09-16 | 43.19% | -0.13 | 1.091 | $160.46 |
| 2025-09-15 | 43.35% | -0.80 | 1.092 | $161.16 |
| 2025-09-12 | 41.78% | -0.20 | 1.115 | $158.57 |
| 2025-09-11 | 41.21% | +0.51 | 1.124 | $155.67 |
| 2025-09-10 | 42.51% | +0.60 | 1.087 | $159.54 |
| 2025-09-09 | 40.82% | +1.69 | 1.116 | $155.82 |
| 2025-09-08 | 41.09% | +2.50 | 1.110 | $151.41 |
| 2025-09-05 | 40.54% | +4.22 | 1.128 | $151.14 |
| 2025-09-04 | 38.09% | +3.09 | 1.162 | $161.79 |
| 2025-09-03 | 40.64% | +2.65 | 1.112 | $162.13 |
| 2025-09-02 | 41.58% | +2.37 | 1.097 | $162.32 |
| 2025-08-29 | 39.88% | +1.89 | 1.137 | $162.63 |
| 2025-08-28 | 39.21% | +1.34 | 1.138 | $168.58 |
| 2025-08-27 | 42.42% | +0.81 | 1.084 | $167.13 |
| 2025-08-26 | 42.43% | +1.63 | 1.088 | $166.62 |
| 2025-08-25 | 42.02% | +2.12 | 1.094 | $163.36 |
| 2025-08-22 | 41.42% | +2.19 | 1.103 | $167.76 |
| 2025-08-21 | 43.14% | +3.67 | 1.075 | $163.71 |
| 2025-08-20 | 43.35% | +3.17 | 1.067 | $165.20 |
| 2025-08-19 | 43.59% | +2.81 | 1.059 | $166.55 |
| 2025-08-18 | 41.88% | +0.69 | 1.087 | $176.14 |
| 2025-08-15 | 42.59% | -0.02 | 1.072 | $177.51 |
| 2025-08-14 | 43.72% | -0.28 | 1.055 | $180.95 |
| 2025-08-13 | 44.37% | -0.15 | 1.045 | $184.42 |
| 2025-08-12 | 42.41% | -0.29 | 1.053 | $174.95 |
| 2025-08-11 | 43.81% | +1.01 | 1.028 | $172.28 |
| 2025-08-08 | 42.31% | -0.07 | 1.036 | $172.76 |
| 2025-08-07 | 43.76% | -0.07 | 1.011 | $172.40 |
| 2025-08-06 | 42.72% | +0.52 | 1.016 | $163.12 |
| 2025-08-05 | 52.71% | +1.70 | 0.926 | $174.31 |
| 2025-08-04 | 53.16% | -0.99 | 0.903 | $176.78 |
| 2025-08-01 | 55.91% | +0.82 | 0.878 | $171.70 |
| 2025-07-31 | 55.62% | -1.54 | 0.866 | $176.31 |
| 2025-07-30 | 55.81% | -2.60 | 0.868 | $179.51 |
| 2025-07-29 | 56.63% | -0.01 | 0.858 | $177.44 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 348 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-11) · 3d (2026-11-13) · 6d (2026-11-16)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 3d | 6d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 91.86% | 88.34% | 72.97% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 91.76% | 87.27% | 71.84% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 91.63% | 87.43% | 71.99% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 92.34% | 87.94% | 72.04% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 92.44% | 88.04% | 71.97% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 92.93% | 88.57% | 72.26% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 93.10% | 88.43% | 72.65% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 93.28% | 89.01% | 72.87% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 93.99% | 89.48% | 73.41% |
| ATM | 94.55% | 89.96% | 73.96% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 95.61% | 90.95% | 74.54% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 95.85% | 91.74% | 75.22% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 96.22% | 91.41% | 75.56% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 97.08% | 92.40% | 76.47% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 98.17% | 93.36% | 77.10% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 99.87% | 94.19% | 78.18% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 101.57% | 95.66% | 79.52% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 104.09% | 98.46% | 81.61% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 108.65% | 102.74% | 84.86% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | 1 | $511.45 | 94.55% | 98.17% | 92.44% | +5.73 | +0.75 | 81 |
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $511.62 | 89.96% | 93.36% | 88.04% | +5.33 | +0.74 | 148 |
| 2026-11-16 | 6 | $511.67 | 73.96% | 77.10% | 71.97% | +5.13 | +0.57 | 121 |
| 2026-11-18 | 8 | $512.95 | 76.63% | 81.94% | 76.11% | +5.83 | +2.40 | 121 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $512.05 | 77.77% | 81.19% | 75.70% | +5.48 | +0.68 | 100 |
| 2026-11-23 | 13 | $513.80 | 72.21% | 74.42% | 70.53% | +3.90 | +0.26 | 66 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $512.50 | 69.25% | 71.62% | 67.79% | +3.83 | +0.46 | 96 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $513.27 | 66.59% | 69.87% | 64.51% | +5.37 | +0.60 | 94 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $513.67 | 65.10% | 68.82% | 63.83% | +4.99 | +1.22 | 93 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $513.49 | 64.81% | 68.04% | 62.07% | +5.97 | +0.24 | 74 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $515.83 | 62.75% | 66.27% | 60.34% | +5.93 | +0.56 | 79 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $516.10 | 60.24% | 63.91% | 58.69% | +5.22 | +1.06 | 92 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $517.98 | 61.11% | 63.63% | 59.10% | +4.53 | +0.26 | 102 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $520.13 | 59.72% | 62.93% | 57.87% | +5.05 | +0.68 | 126 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $522.60 | 58.33% | 61.60% | 57.24% | +4.36 | +1.09 | 118 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $525.79 | 58.18% | 60.48% | 56.97% | +3.51 | +0.54 | 133 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $533.35 | 57.30% | 59.52% | 56.33% | +3.19 | +0.63 | 136 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
17 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | 1 天 | $511.45 | 94.55% | $512.08 | 81 |
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $511.62 | 89.96% | $513.33 | 148 |
| 2026-11-16 | 6 天 | $511.67 | 73.96% | $513.98 | 121 |
| 2026-11-18 | 8 天 | $512.95 | 76.63% | $516.26 | 121 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $512.05 | 77.77% | $516.31 | 100 |
| 2026-11-23 | 13 天 | $513.80 | 72.21% | $518.59 | 66 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $512.50 | 69.25% | $518.25 | 96 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $513.27 | 66.59% | $520.81 | 94 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $513.67 | 65.10% | $523.00 | 93 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $513.49 | 64.81% | $524.84 | 74 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $515.83 | 62.75% | $528.22 | 79 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $516.10 | 60.24% | $533.31 | 92 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $517.98 | 61.11% | $545.44 | 102 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $520.13 | 59.72% | $553.96 | 126 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $522.60 | 58.33% | $562.27 | 118 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $525.79 | 58.18% | $581.99 | 133 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $533.35 | 57.30% | $613.42 | 136 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 65.28%
- 60 天
- 60.75%
- 90 天
- 60.91%
- 180 天
- 58.26%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 3 次
- 60% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 10.5%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 124.3%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 收盘后 | 9.9% | +1.0% | 0.10× |
| 2026-08-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-05 | 收盘后 | 10.2% | +190.3% | 18.60× |
| 2025-05-06 | 收盘后 | 10.2% | +413.1% | 40.50× |
| 2025-02-04 | 收盘后 | 10.9% | -6.3% | 0.58× |
| 2024-10-29 | 收盘后 | 11.1% | -10.6% | 0.96× |
| 2024-07-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-31 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。