股票 · 期权分析
ACN 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $258.51
- 30D ATM IV
- 42.82%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 78
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +2.54
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.062
▼ -0.60 pts 较前一交易日
概览
ACN 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 42.8%,相当于未来一个月约 ±12.3% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 246 个交易日中 78% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 2.54 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
较长期限的期权波动率更高:90 天波动率比 30 天高 6%。
它的下一次财报在 2026-12-17(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±8.1% 的波动,ACN 实际平均波动 7.5%,6 次中有 4 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 42.82%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +2.54
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.71
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.062
对应 30 天内约 ±12.3% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.7%。
高于过去一年中 78% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 2.54 个点。
高于过去一年中 48% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.71 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 6%。
高于过去一年中 58% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 246 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 78%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 67%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 84%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 68%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $258.51
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $260.16
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 47.47%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 45.48%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 45.81%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 169,946
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.46
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 347 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 42.82% | +2.54 | 1.062 | $258.51 |
| 2026-11-09 | 43.42% | -0.25 | 1.064 | $254.37 |
| 2026-11-06 | 48.36% | +1.53 | 0.959 | $260.50 |
| 2026-11-05 | 45.36% | -0.15 | 1.043 | $265.16 |
| 2026-11-04 | 44.79% | +1.14 | 1.040 | $264.27 |
| 2026-11-03 | 45.04% | +2.08 | 1.046 | $254.56 |
| 2026-11-02 | 45.33% | +2.17 | 1.054 | $260.94 |
| 2026-10-30 | 43.83% | +0.99 | 1.080 | $258.24 |
| 2026-10-29 | 42.63% | +1.39 | 1.080 | $247.22 |
| 2026-10-28 | 41.45% | +0.28 | 1.074 | $243.40 |
| 2026-10-27 | 41.76% | -1.52 | 1.056 | $235.16 |
| 2026-10-26 | 41.71% | +0.33 | 1.068 | $247.23 |
| 2026-10-23 | 42.51% | +0.55 | 1.040 | $249.37 |
| 2026-10-22 | 40.65% | +0.61 | 1.043 | $258.74 |
| 2026-10-21 | 39.70% | +1.42 | 1.035 | $240.26 |
| 2026-10-20 | 39.93% | +0.99 | 1.045 | $239.12 |
| 2026-10-19 | 39.12% | +1.28 | 1.075 | $236.93 |
| 2026-10-16 | 40.81% | -1.01 | 1.037 | $229.68 |
| 2026-10-15 | 40.42% | -0.02 | 1.032 | $224.92 |
| 2026-10-14 | 41.15% | +2.01 | 1.061 | $214.96 |
| 2026-10-13 | 43.19% | -2.36 | 0.996 | $213.56 |
| 2026-10-09 | 43.22% | -1.30 | 0.997 | $209.06 |
| 2026-10-08 | 43.48% | +0.60 | 1.036 | $208.36 |
| 2026-10-07 | 43.13% | -0.13 | 1.010 | $196.64 |
| 2026-10-06 | 43.22% | -2.77 | 1.019 | $193.40 |
| 2026-10-05 | 43.17% | -1.15 | 1.022 | $195.05 |
| 2026-10-02 | 42.60% | -1.15 | 1.038 | $198.90 |
| 2026-10-01 | 44.36% | -1.36 | 1.000 | $212.30 |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.87% | +0.31 | 0.912 | $183.37 |
| 2026-09-29 | 49.80% | +0.81 | 0.950 | $177.12 |
| 2026-09-28 | 53.01% | -0.88 | 0.896 | $174.47 |
| 2026-09-25 | 52.51% | -1.98 | 0.884 | $176.11 |
| 2026-09-24 | 51.74% | +3.39 | 0.905 | $177.41 |
| 2026-09-23 | 52.72% | -2.12 | 0.888 | $183.52 |
| 2026-09-22 | 53.18% | -1.45 | 0.871 | $183.72 |
| 2026-09-21 | 52.72% | +1.85 | 0.913 | $186.11 |
| 2026-09-18 | 52.61% | -0.13 | 0.878 | $181.29 |
| 2026-09-17 | 52.17% | +0.78 | 0.922 | $190.29 |
| 2026-09-16 | 53.28% | +1.06 | 0.893 | $189.64 |
| 2026-09-15 | 54.63% | -0.90 | 0.897 | $193.40 |
| 2026-09-14 | — | — | — | $195.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | 52.03% | +1.41 | 0.894 | $183.90 |
| 2026-09-10 | 53.10% | -0.26 | 0.931 | $177.91 |
| 2026-09-09 | 53.09% | +0.01 | 0.906 | $175.80 |
| 2026-09-08 | 55.12% | -1.66 | 0.857 | $179.03 |
| 2026-09-04 | 48.78% | +1.28 | 0.979 | $186.72 |
| 2026-09-03 | 53.86% | -0.66 | 0.889 | $193.12 |
| 2026-09-02 | 48.85% | +0.28 | 0.946 | $187.68 |
| 2026-09-01 | 50.44% | +1.37 | 0.927 | $188.09 |
| 2026-08-31 | — | — | — | $189.76 |
| 2026-08-28 | 48.95% | +0.81 | 0.974 | $189.61 |
| 2026-08-26 | 45.08% | -1.10 | 1.102 | $181.38 |
| 2026-08-25 | — | — | — | $186.93 |
| 2026-08-24 | 49.05% | +1.10 | 0.992 | $186.53 |
| 2026-08-21 | 45.34% | +1.62 | 1.140 | $185.28 |
| 2026-08-20 | 45.39% | -2.16 | 1.074 | $181.35 |
| 2026-08-19 | 43.49% | +3.26 | 1.126 | $183.17 |
| 2026-08-18 | — | — | — | $172.93 |
| 2026-08-17 | — | — | — | $169.98 |
| 2025-10-22 | 31.68% | +3.71 | 1.109 | $249.14 |
| 2025-10-21 | 31.46% | +1.46 | 1.147 | $250.51 |
| 2025-10-20 | 32.47% | +0.66 | 1.097 | $242.18 |
| 2025-10-17 | 33.41% | +2.31 | 1.092 | $238.39 |
| 2025-10-16 | 35.19% | +1.38 | 1.054 | $234.02 |
| 2025-10-15 | 34.60% | +3.15 | 1.021 | $239.71 |
| 2025-10-14 | 34.78% | +1.66 | 1.024 | $244.20 |
| 2025-10-10 | 35.13% | +1.26 | 1.058 | $240.94 |
| 2025-10-09 | 32.28% | +0.69 | 1.085 | $252.04 |
| 2025-10-08 | 31.79% | +0.20 | 1.097 | $252.98 |
| 2025-10-07 | 32.17% | +1.89 | 1.088 | $251.23 |
| 2025-10-06 | 31.34% | +1.35 | 1.117 | $248.17 |
| 2025-10-03 | 30.64% | +1.60 | 1.129 | $245.32 |
| 2025-10-02 | 31.26% | +1.26 | 1.116 | $244.34 |
| 2025-10-01 | 31.06% | +1.26 | 1.117 | $243.71 |
| 2025-09-30 | 30.91% | -0.54 | 1.109 | $246.60 |
| 2025-09-29 | 30.38% | +1.06 | 1.134 | $247.00 |
| 2025-09-26 | 29.82% | -0.32 | 1.108 | $238.97 |
| 2025-09-25 | 30.47% | +2.25 | 1.116 | $232.56 |
| 2025-09-24 | 44.03% | +1.07 | 0.870 | $239.08 |
| 2025-09-23 | 45.84% | -0.22 | 0.862 | $235.50 |
| 2025-09-22 | 46.65% | +1.62 | 0.855 | $239.99 |
| 2025-09-19 | 45.55% | +2.03 | 0.884 | $239.70 |
| 2025-09-18 | 45.03% | +2.22 | 0.871 | $239.55 |
| 2025-09-17 | 42.82% | +3.98 | 0.913 | $241.24 |
| 2025-09-16 | 43.86% | +2.10 | 0.876 | $236.81 |
| 2025-09-15 | 42.86% | +2.26 | 0.892 | $237.87 |
| 2025-09-12 | 41.40% | +3.46 | 0.892 | $238.54 |
| 2025-09-11 | 41.18% | +3.13 | 0.897 | $244.15 |
| 2025-09-10 | 40.43% | +4.41 | 0.901 | $243.11 |
| 2025-09-09 | 39.68% | +3.73 | 0.882 | $251.99 |
| 2025-09-08 | 38.27% | +4.47 | 0.895 | $255.57 |
| 2025-09-05 | 38.60% | +4.05 | 0.903 | $254.95 |
| 2025-09-04 | 38.87% | +5.54 | 0.882 | $252.94 |
| 2025-09-03 | 37.81% | +2.99 | 0.906 | $254.15 |
| 2025-09-02 | 37.95% | +4.21 | 0.883 | $256.17 |
| 2025-08-29 | 35.78% | +4.27 | 0.909 | $259.97 |
| 2025-08-28 | 35.89% | +3.47 | 0.921 | $256.17 |
| 2025-08-27 | 36.11% | +5.21 | 0.909 | $257.12 |
| 2025-08-26 | 36.08% | +5.27 | 0.890 | $255.42 |
| 2025-08-25 | 34.06% | +3.28 | 0.956 | $256.05 |
| 2025-08-22 | 29.54% | +3.07 | 1.090 | $259.22 |
| 2025-08-21 | 30.32% | +2.98 | 1.096 | $253.99 |
| 2025-08-20 | 27.74% | +2.57 | 1.192 | $255.05 |
| 2025-08-19 | 28.60% | +3.07 | 1.171 | $255.88 |
| 2025-08-18 | 27.81% | +3.18 | 1.198 | $249.13 |
| 2025-08-15 | 27.89% | +3.87 | 1.206 | $247.01 |
| 2025-08-14 | 28.36% | +3.06 | 1.198 | $246.16 |
| 2025-08-13 | 29.13% | +3.22 | 1.182 | $245.68 |
| 2025-08-12 | 29.57% | +2.95 | 1.183 | $237.87 |
| 2025-08-11 | 30.72% | +3.97 | 1.131 | $238.61 |
| 2025-08-08 | 30.29% | +4.73 | 1.122 | $239.20 |
| 2025-08-07 | 31.91% | +4.78 | 1.096 | $241.72 |
| 2025-08-06 | 28.33% | +3.64 | 1.170 | $247.54 |
| 2025-08-05 | 27.94% | +4.21 | 1.154 | $247.07 |
| 2025-08-04 | 26.23% | +3.17 | 1.083 | $258.78 |
| 2025-08-01 | 26.82% | +2.90 | 1.083 | $255.37 |
| 2025-07-31 | 23.81% | +4.89 | 1.156 | $267.10 |
| 2025-07-30 | 23.76% | +2.34 | 1.122 | $274.00 |
| 2025-07-29 | 23.02% | +3.72 | 1.151 | $278.90 |
| 2025-07-28 | 24.16% | +3.69 | 1.076 | $277.04 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 347 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 347 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 50.00% | — | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 51.81% | — | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 52.18% | 44.71% | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 51.41% | 43.18% | 41.66% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 50.93% | 43.25% | 41.20% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 51.03% | 43.07% | 41.35% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 50.17% | 43.44% | 41.46% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 49.20% | 43.72% | 42.14% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 49.55% | 43.54% | 42.66% |
| ATM | 49.52% | 43.77% | 42.88% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 49.16% | 43.85% | 42.72% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 49.41% | 43.93% | 42.47% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 49.97% | 44.47% | 42.75% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 50.57% | 44.98% | 42.98% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 50.73% | 45.22% | 43.14% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 50.94% | 45.87% | 43.79% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 51.71% | 47.51% | — |
| 10Δ 看跌 | — | 49.73% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $258.95 | 49.52% | 50.73% | 50.93% | -0.20 | +1.31 | 12 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $259.30 | 43.77% | 45.22% | 43.25% | +1.97 | +0.47 | 18 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $259.65 | 42.88% | 43.14% | 41.20% | +1.94 | -0.71 | 11 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $259.65 | 41.59% | 43.15% | 41.39% | +1.75 | +0.68 | 13 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $260.25 | 42.97% | 45.00% | 42.37% | +2.63 | +0.71 | 14 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $260.00 | 49.33% | 50.91% | 48.71% | +2.20 | +0.48 | 27 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $259.70 | 47.17% | 47.80% | 46.03% | +1.77 | -0.25 | 18 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $260.30 | 44.95% | 48.13% | 44.09% | +4.03 | +1.16 | 30 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $261.47 | 46.33% | 48.13% | 45.25% | +2.88 | +0.35 | 26 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $261.79 | 45.73% | 47.59% | 45.31% | +2.28 | +0.73 | 42 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $263.03 | 46.05% | 48.16% | 45.68% | +2.48 | +0.87 | 31 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $264.31 | 46.27% | 46.97% | 45.51% | +1.46 | -0.03 | 38 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $258.95 | 49.52% | $259.21 | 12 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $259.30 | 43.77% | $259.98 | 18 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $259.65 | 42.88% | $260.76 | 11 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $259.65 | 41.59% | $261.13 | 13 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $260.25 | 42.97% | $262.30 | 14 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $260.00 | 49.33% | $263.31 | 27 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $259.70 | 47.17% | $264.98 | 18 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $260.30 | 44.95% | $267.68 | 30 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $261.47 | 46.33% | $271.58 | 26 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $261.79 | 45.73% | $276.59 | 42 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $263.03 | 46.05% | $280.30 | 31 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $264.31 | 46.27% | $289.55 | 38 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 42.82%
- 60 天
- 47.47%
- 90 天
- 45.48%
- 180 天
- 45.81%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 347 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 4 次
- 67% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 8.1%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 7.5%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | 开盘前 | 9.3% | +15.8% | 1.70× |
| 2026-06-18 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-19 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-18 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-25 | 开盘前 | 9.3% | -2.7% | 0.29× |
| 2025-06-20 | 开盘前 | 8.2% | -6.9% | 0.84× |
| 2025-03-20 | 开盘前 | 7.6% | -7.3% | 0.95× |
| 2024-12-19 | 开盘前 | 7.0% | +7.1% | 1.01× |
| 2024-09-26 | 开盘前 | 7.0% | +5.6% | 0.79× |
| 2024-06-20 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-21 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-19 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-28 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。