股票 · 期权分析
ALAB 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $216.18
- 30D ATM IV
- 94.47%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 82
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +8.90
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.911
▲ +0.61 pts 较前一交易日
概览
ALAB 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 94.5%,相当于未来一个月约 ±27.1% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 244 个交易日中 82% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 8.90 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 9%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-02(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±19.7% 的波动,ALAB 实际平均波动 165.5%,5 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 94.47%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +8.90
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +1.66
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.911
对应 30 天内约 ±27.1% 的波动，平常一天约 ±6.0%。
高于过去一年中 82% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 8.90 个点。
高于过去一年中 89% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 1.66 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 9%。
高于过去一年中 42% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 244 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 82%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 53%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 84%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 53%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $216.18
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $215.82
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 87.88%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 86.02%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 84.49%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 198,382
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.23
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 305 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 94.47% | +8.90 | 0.911 | $216.18 |
| 2026-11-09 | 93.87% | +11.81 | 0.930 | $216.87 |
| 2026-11-06 | 98.28% | +9.63 | 0.912 | $190.71 |
| 2026-11-05 | 108.71% | +3.08 | 0.847 | $179.47 |
| 2026-11-04 | 90.54% | +0.18 | 0.902 | $223.27 |
| 2026-11-03 | 100.52% | +8.39 | 0.829 | $233.62 |
| 2026-11-02 | 102.95% | -2.20 | 0.847 | $229.67 |
| 2026-10-30 | 97.96% | +4.37 | 0.875 | $258.70 |
| 2026-10-29 | 90.97% | +0.65 | 0.896 | $290.43 |
| 2026-10-28 | 89.01% | +7.10 | 0.897 | $297.20 |
| 2026-10-27 | 90.92% | +2.81 | 0.885 | $286.69 |
| 2026-10-26 | 93.78% | +4.47 | 0.893 | $259.51 |
| 2026-10-23 | 92.38% | +1.46 | 0.867 | $257.16 |
| 2026-10-22 | 95.46% | +1.50 | 0.856 | $257.82 |
| 2026-10-21 | 90.54% | -1.32 | 0.868 | $290.06 |
| 2026-10-20 | 90.65% | -0.13 | 0.872 | $284.80 |
| 2026-10-19 | 89.04% | -0.15 | 0.867 | $286.58 |
| 2026-10-16 | 91.57% | -0.43 | 0.860 | $285.82 |
| 2026-10-15 | 87.66% | +1.20 | 0.896 | $301.98 |
| 2026-10-14 | 95.06% | -3.60 | 0.835 | $300.28 |
| 2026-10-13 | 91.77% | -2.13 | 0.877 | $325.41 |
| 2026-10-09 | 88.04% | -2.27 | 0.903 | $342.21 |
| 2026-10-08 | 89.60% | -4.36 | 0.904 | $347.05 |
| 2026-10-07 | 87.14% | -5.12 | 0.908 | $382.25 |
| 2026-10-06 | 85.92% | -3.08 | 0.944 | $389.80 |
| 2026-10-05 | 81.63% | -0.87 | 0.982 | $362.34 |
| 2026-10-02 | 81.75% | -3.25 | 1.004 | $350.33 |
| 2026-10-01 | 84.26% | -3.46 | 0.987 | $356.42 |
| 2026-09-30 | 90.60% | -4.77 | 0.942 | $355.97 |
| 2026-09-29 | 84.22% | -0.30 | 1.034 | $357.84 |
| 2026-09-28 | 85.55% | -1.91 | 0.987 | $351.31 |
| 2026-09-25 | 83.00% | -4.56 | 1.003 | $364.62 |
| 2026-09-24 | 83.29% | -3.75 | 1.028 | $360.51 |
| 2026-09-23 | 85.49% | -5.69 | 0.989 | $360.46 |
| 2026-09-22 | 83.62% | -2.17 | 1.023 | $363.46 |
| 2026-09-21 | 83.45% | +0.41 | 1.019 | $340.74 |
| 2026-09-18 | 74.03% | -1.12 | 1.080 | $303.25 |
| 2026-09-17 | 74.29% | -0.08 | 1.062 | $293.56 |
| 2026-09-16 | 74.86% | -0.93 | 1.064 | $269.18 |
| 2025-10-22 | 107.17% | +3.02 | 0.830 | $154.85 |
| 2025-10-21 | 102.34% | -1.59 | 0.872 | $157.51 |
| 2025-10-20 | 104.16% | +1.16 | 0.864 | $156.31 |
| 2025-10-17 | 105.86% | +1.81 | 0.834 | $159.80 |
| 2025-10-16 | 113.31% | -4.21 | 0.811 | $163.55 |
| 2025-10-15 | 114.49% | -4.20 | 0.809 | $161.47 |
| 2025-10-14 | 115.63% | -4.28 | 0.802 | $161.55 |
| 2025-10-10 | 109.24% | -3.62 | 0.809 | $206.21 |
| 2025-10-09 | 108.93% | -5.03 | 0.808 | $225.43 |
| 2025-10-08 | 108.30% | +0.24 | 0.819 | $219.36 |
| 2025-10-07 | 100.91% | -0.64 | 0.869 | $212.10 |
| 2025-10-06 | 99.64% | -5.67 | 0.912 | $220.81 |
| 2025-10-03 | 84.52% | +0.00 | 1.039 | $200.74 |
| 2025-10-02 | 81.41% | +0.14 | 1.066 | $209.60 |
| 2025-10-01 | 76.06% | +1.65 | 1.125 | $194.50 |
| 2025-09-30 | 77.31% | +3.40 | 1.096 | $195.80 |
| 2025-09-29 | 76.42% | -2.09 | 1.111 | $198.80 |
| 2025-09-26 | 74.77% | +0.62 | 1.135 | $197.78 |
| 2025-09-25 | 77.47% | +4.72 | 1.137 | $200.64 |
| 2025-09-24 | 82.66% | +0.97 | 1.056 | $205.27 |
| 2025-09-23 | 78.52% | -0.75 | 1.130 | $230.11 |
| 2025-09-22 | 78.52% | -0.20 | 1.088 | $237.30 |
| 2025-09-19 | 76.23% | -0.05 | 1.131 | $245.20 |
| 2025-09-18 | 76.17% | -1.85 | — | $251.88 |
| 2025-09-17 | 73.98% | -0.18 | — | $249.38 |
| 2025-09-16 | 74.23% | -0.91 | — | $238.79 |
| 2025-09-15 | 71.81% | -0.95 | 1.118 | $231.29 |
| 2025-09-12 | 67.48% | +0.78 | — | $229.50 |
| 2025-09-11 | 69.69% | -1.58 | — | $232.90 |
| 2025-09-10 | 69.98% | -0.53 | — | $230.37 |
| 2025-09-09 | 68.65% | -0.02 | — | $214.49 |
| 2025-09-08 | 69.75% | -1.66 | — | $216.10 |
| 2025-09-05 | 66.09% | +2.25 | — | $191.20 |
| 2025-09-04 | 65.87% | +2.19 | — | $187.95 |
| 2025-09-03 | 65.55% | +1.12 | — | $176.61 |
| 2025-09-02 | 72.76% | -0.59 | 1.023 | $174.24 |
| 2025-08-29 | 63.27% | -0.02 | — | $182.20 |
| 2025-08-28 | 65.38% | +2.93 | — | $189.15 |
| 2025-08-27 | 67.22% | +1.31 | — | $179.20 |
| 2025-08-26 | 68.16% | +0.12 | — | $178.56 |
| 2025-08-25 | 67.66% | +1.81 | — | $174.15 |
| 2025-08-22 | 69.29% | +2.29 | — | $179.09 |
| 2025-08-21 | 72.07% | +2.21 | — | $177.53 |
| 2025-08-20 | 73.53% | +2.49 | — | $172.45 |
| 2025-08-19 | 72.17% | +2.04 | — | $171.06 |
| 2025-08-18 | 69.69% | +1.51 | — | $186.43 |
| 2025-08-15 | 69.28% | -0.02 | — | $185.85 |
| 2025-08-14 | 69.20% | +0.43 | — | $190.69 |
| 2025-08-13 | 69.69% | -2.96 | — | $193.64 |
| 2025-08-12 | 71.45% | -1.03 | — | $192.00 |
| 2025-08-11 | 69.52% | -1.22 | — | $179.43 |
| 2025-08-08 | 71.19% | +0.69 | — | $179.28 |
| 2025-08-07 | 72.13% | +0.50 | — | $170.89 |
| 2025-08-06 | 72.14% | -3.64 | — | $174.39 |
| 2025-08-05 | 87.26% | +3.31 | — | $135.54 |
| 2025-08-04 | 89.68% | +2.67 | — | $137.93 |
| 2025-08-01 | 89.80% | +3.60 | — | $131.10 |
| 2025-07-31 | 92.89% | +5.00 | — | $136.73 |
| 2025-07-30 | 93.72% | +4.26 | 0.807 | $128.87 |
| 2025-07-29 | 84.43% | +0.37 | 0.842 | $118.41 |
| 2025-07-28 | 85.26% | -2.96 | 0.841 | $124.05 |
| 2025-07-25 | 81.32% | +0.81 | 0.866 | $122.23 |
| 2025-07-24 | 84.92% | +0.48 | 0.870 | $121.68 |
| 2025-07-23 | 93.31% | -5.01 | 0.809 | $119.48 |
| 2025-07-22 | 90.75% | -7.40 | 0.829 | $116.91 |
| 2025-07-21 | 80.61% | +0.64 | 0.987 | $121.89 |
| 2025-07-18 | 93.26% | +0.24 | 0.799 | $102.13 |
| 2025-07-17 | 94.80% | -0.31 | 0.801 | $97.95 |
| 2025-07-16 | 92.76% | +0.17 | 0.804 | $91.94 |
| 2025-07-15 | 93.20% | +2.42 | 0.801 | $92.36 |
| 2025-07-14 | 96.07% | -1.02 | 0.791 | $90.32 |
| 2025-07-11 | 91.35% | +4.05 | 0.813 | $95.90 |
| 2025-07-10 | 97.25% | -1.59 | 0.757 | $97.02 |
| 2025-07-09 | 88.93% | +0.89 | 0.838 | $99.86 |
| 2025-07-08 | 82.24% | -2.81 | 0.884 | $92.30 |
| 2025-07-07 | 78.07% | -5.16 | 0.969 | $89.62 |
| 2025-07-03 | 68.38% | +0.35 | 1.073 | $90.80 |
| 2025-07-02 | 69.80% | -0.26 | 1.071 | $88.57 |
| 2025-07-01 | 73.08% | +1.24 | 1.041 | $88.66 |
| 2025-06-30 | 66.09% | +1.61 | 1.150 | $90.42 |
| 2025-06-27 | 62.71% | +3.50 | 1.165 | $91.02 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 305 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 305 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 118.13% | — | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 115.73% | 101.52% | 91.75% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 116.71% | 102.46% | 92.61% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 117.43% | 102.51% | 93.13% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 117.56% | 103.21% | 92.83% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 118.59% | 104.09% | 94.18% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 119.07% | 104.62% | 94.69% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 120.34% | 105.86% | 96.68% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 121.21% | 106.64% | 96.77% |
| ATM | 121.96% | 107.55% | 98.17% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 123.93% | 108.51% | 98.45% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 124.03% | 108.97% | 98.32% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 124.38% | 110.15% | 99.67% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 125.46% | 111.27% | 100.00% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 126.49% | 112.72% | 100.40% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 127.84% | 114.27% | 102.32% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 129.38% | 116.45% | 105.08% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 132.53% | 119.83% | 109.44% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 138.68% | 127.44% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $214.32 | 121.96% | 126.49% | 117.56% | +8.93 | +0.07 | 37 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $214.42 | 107.55% | 112.72% | 103.21% | +9.52 | +0.42 | 55 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $215.05 | 98.17% | 100.40% | 92.83% | +7.57 | -1.55 | 32 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $215.35 | 95.93% | 99.77% | 91.65% | +8.12 | -0.23 | 30 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $215.90 | 94.28% | 100.68% | 91.68% | +9.00 | +1.90 | 35 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $215.53 | 93.54% | 97.95% | 89.75% | +8.20 | +0.31 | 35 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $215.38 | 92.86% | 97.61% | 90.98% | +6.63 | +1.44 | 31 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $216.93 | 86.59% | 92.45% | 85.71% | +6.73 | +2.49 | 48 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $219.11 | 85.54% | 90.56% | 84.15% | +6.41 | +1.81 | 57 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $218.98 | 84.68% | 87.66% | 83.50% | +4.16 | +0.90 | 69 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $221.05 | 84.26% | 86.09% | 83.26% | +2.83 | +0.42 | 67 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $223.66 | 83.15% | 84.50% | 81.97% | +2.54 | +0.08 | 69 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $214.32 | 121.96% | $215.64 | 37 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $214.42 | 107.55% | $217.85 | 55 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $215.05 | 98.17% | $219.93 | 32 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $215.35 | 95.93% | $221.97 | 30 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $215.90 | 94.28% | $224.21 | 35 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $215.53 | 93.54% | $225.57 | 35 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $215.38 | 92.86% | $226.87 | 31 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $216.93 | 86.59% | $232.14 | 48 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $219.11 | 85.54% | $249.36 | 57 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $218.98 | 84.68% | $255.50 | 69 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $221.05 | 84.26% | $273.53 | 67 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $223.66 | 83.15% | $300.27 | 69 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 94.47%
- 60 天
- 87.88%
- 90 天
- 86.02%
- 180 天
- 84.49%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 305 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 1 次
- 20% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 19.7%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 165.5%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 收盘后 | 16.6% | -4.4% | 0.27× |
| 2026-08-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-10 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-05 | 收盘后 | 17.6% | +98.6% | 5.60× |
| 2025-05-06 | 收盘后 | 16.7% | +277.2% | 16.60× |
| 2025-02-10 | 收盘后 | 24.2% | +160.6% | 6.63× |
| 2024-11-04 | 收盘后 | 23.4% | +286.5% | 12.27× |
| 2024-08-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。