股票 · 期权分析
ALB 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $94.93
- 30D ATM IV
- 52.14%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 31
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- -0.62
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.995
▲ +2.48 pts 较前一交易日
概览
ALB 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 52.1%,相当于未来一个月约 ±14.9% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 251 个交易日中 31% 的读数。
它的 25-delta call 比 put 的隐含波动率高 0.62 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-03(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±8.1% 的波动,ALB 实际平均波动 66.7%,5 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 52.14%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- -0.62
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +1.08
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.995
对应 30 天内约 ±14.9% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.3%。
高于过去一年中 31% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，call 比 put的隐含波动率高 0.62 个点。
高于过去一年中 22% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 1.08 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
高于过去一年中 56% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 251 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 31%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 16%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 36%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 24%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $94.93
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $95.06
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 51.86%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 51.88%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 51.01%
- 使用的到期日数
- 14
- 总未平仓量
- 139,003
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.97
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 345 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 52.14% | -0.62 | 0.995 | $94.93 |
| 2026-11-09 | 49.66% | +2.28 | 1.041 | $99.12 |
| 2026-11-06 | 50.69% | +0.62 | 1.044 | $99.25 |
| 2026-11-05 | 54.22% | +1.24 | 0.979 | $98.37 |
| 2026-11-04 | 57.29% | +4.85 | 0.902 | $94.97 |
| 2026-11-03 | 58.05% | +0.12 | 0.927 | $90.19 |
| 2026-11-02 | 57.66% | -0.62 | 0.925 | $90.56 |
| 2026-10-30 | 55.98% | +0.60 | 0.932 | $91.00 |
| 2026-10-29 | 53.29% | +1.02 | 0.967 | $93.27 |
| 2026-10-28 | 55.42% | -0.90 | 0.944 | $96.96 |
| 2026-10-27 | 55.07% | +0.31 | 0.960 | $98.96 |
| 2026-10-26 | 58.41% | -0.18 | 0.881 | $93.42 |
| 2026-10-23 | 58.49% | -0.43 | 0.908 | $93.67 |
| 2026-10-22 | 55.85% | +2.67 | 0.922 | $92.54 |
| 2026-10-21 | 55.43% | +1.86 | 0.907 | $94.47 |
| 2026-10-20 | 56.98% | +1.12 | 0.904 | $95.77 |
| 2026-10-19 | 60.54% | -1.99 | 0.857 | $94.64 |
| 2026-10-16 | 55.21% | +0.06 | 0.923 | $95.48 |
| 2026-10-15 | 55.80% | -1.28 | 0.903 | $98.18 |
| 2026-10-14 | 57.81% | -0.96 | 0.906 | $97.97 |
| 2026-10-13 | 53.36% | +1.19 | 0.920 | $97.65 |
| 2026-10-09 | 53.63% | +1.43 | 0.923 | $101.27 |
| 2026-10-08 | 54.42% | +0.96 | 0.923 | $102.10 |
| 2026-10-07 | 55.57% | +1.29 | 0.913 | $102.75 |
| 2026-10-06 | 54.15% | -1.12 | 0.926 | $106.35 |
| 2026-10-05 | 54.63% | +0.48 | 0.941 | $104.37 |
| 2026-10-02 | 52.87% | -0.36 | 0.992 | $104.59 |
| 2026-10-01 | 52.75% | +0.34 | 0.987 | $105.03 |
| 2026-09-30 | 51.10% | -1.28 | 1.019 | $105.78 |
| 2026-09-29 | 49.88% | -1.68 | 1.034 | $107.62 |
| 2026-09-28 | 50.50% | +0.43 | 1.028 | $107.39 |
| 2026-09-25 | 50.00% | -0.78 | 1.054 | $109.73 |
| 2026-09-24 | 50.34% | +0.97 | 1.024 | $108.25 |
| 2026-09-23 | 48.74% | +0.31 | 1.071 | $113.47 |
| 2026-09-22 | 50.04% | -0.62 | 1.048 | $116.80 |
| 2026-09-21 | 48.67% | +0.21 | 1.070 | $112.92 |
| 2026-09-18 | 46.69% | -0.06 | 1.101 | $110.91 |
| 2026-09-17 | 46.76% | +1.10 | 1.090 | $115.05 |
| 2026-09-16 | 48.90% | +0.37 | 1.072 | $109.47 |
| 2026-09-15 | 49.84% | +1.17 | 1.057 | $113.45 |
| 2026-09-14 | 49.47% | +1.36 | 1.050 | $115.03 |
| 2026-09-11 | 49.47% | +0.82 | 1.080 | $117.52 |
| 2026-09-10 | 51.37% | +0.48 | 1.037 | $122.11 |
| 2026-09-09 | 50.73% | +0.13 | 1.035 | $125.91 |
| 2026-09-08 | 51.89% | +0.52 | 1.034 | $129.57 |
| 2026-09-04 | 47.39% | -0.57 | 1.054 | $126.28 |
| 2026-09-03 | 46.74% | +0.32 | 1.076 | $132.16 |
| 2026-09-02 | 47.87% | +0.00 | 1.058 | $137.75 |
| 2026-09-01 | 47.27% | +0.48 | 1.064 | $135.54 |
| 2026-08-31 | 45.75% | +2.73 | 1.096 | $134.97 |
| 2026-08-28 | 46.07% | -1.80 | 1.118 | $137.36 |
| 2026-08-27 | 46.16% | +0.21 | 1.098 | $135.77 |
| 2026-08-26 | 47.31% | -1.51 | 1.098 | $134.51 |
| 2026-08-25 | 49.53% | -1.62 | 1.042 | $133.18 |
| 2026-08-24 | 48.89% | +0.90 | 1.073 | $141.51 |
| 2026-08-21 | 48.63% | -0.56 | 1.066 | $143.25 |
| 2026-08-20 | 47.68% | -1.02 | 1.065 | $134.19 |
| 2026-08-19 | 46.50% | -0.59 | 1.043 | $134.28 |
| 2026-08-18 | 46.94% | -1.09 | 1.079 | $132.71 |
| 2025-10-22 | 70.71% | -1.78 | 0.837 | $91.27 |
| 2025-10-21 | 66.54% | -2.47 | 0.889 | $91.34 |
| 2025-10-20 | 65.54% | +3.02 | 0.896 | $96.14 |
| 2025-10-17 | 67.92% | -1.22 | 0.882 | $92.74 |
| 2025-10-16 | 72.25% | -4.23 | 0.863 | $95.29 |
| 2025-10-15 | 71.41% | -4.29 | 0.861 | $98.16 |
| 2025-10-14 | 72.99% | -3.67 | 0.860 | $96.24 |
| 2025-10-10 | 73.01% | -1.03 | 0.833 | $89.86 |
| 2025-10-09 | 66.59% | +0.49 | 0.903 | $96.50 |
| 2025-10-08 | 67.10% | -7.39 | 0.870 | $91.69 |
| 2025-10-07 | 63.56% | +0.46 | 0.903 | $90.53 |
| 2025-10-06 | 63.54% | -1.68 | 0.904 | $92.03 |
| 2025-10-03 | 61.21% | -0.90 | 0.931 | $88.22 |
| 2025-10-02 | 58.62% | +1.18 | 0.975 | $87.61 |
| 2025-10-01 | 60.62% | -1.10 | 0.940 | $84.47 |
| 2025-09-30 | 60.25% | -2.79 | 0.936 | $81.08 |
| 2025-09-29 | 59.06% | -0.36 | 0.991 | $86.88 |
| 2025-09-26 | 57.89% | +1.18 | 0.995 | $88.10 |
| 2025-09-25 | 60.18% | +0.81 | 0.942 | $84.83 |
| 2025-09-24 | 60.85% | -4.00 | 0.920 | $81.58 |
| 2025-09-23 | 56.29% | +0.70 | 0.973 | $80.12 |
| 2025-09-22 | 57.25% | -1.75 | 0.980 | $80.38 |
| 2025-09-19 | 55.37% | -0.66 | 0.955 | $81.84 |
| 2025-09-18 | 53.67% | -1.33 | 0.988 | $80.93 |
| 2025-09-17 | 54.03% | +2.13 | 0.975 | $80.16 |
| 2025-09-16 | 54.93% | -0.51 | 0.990 | $80.94 |
| 2025-09-15 | 54.25% | -0.73 | 0.949 | $81.04 |
| 2025-09-12 | 52.90% | +0.21 | 1.032 | $75.98 |
| 2025-09-11 | 52.23% | -0.78 | 1.003 | $75.05 |
| 2025-09-10 | 54.26% | -1.28 | 0.982 | $73.32 |
| 2025-09-09 | 56.46% | +0.00 | 0.958 | $72.58 |
| 2025-09-08 | 54.90% | -7.12 | 0.957 | $82.00 |
| 2025-09-05 | 50.99% | +4.10 | 1.026 | $81.54 |
| 2025-09-04 | 50.30% | -0.71 | 1.031 | $79.27 |
| 2025-09-03 | 50.52% | -1.45 | 1.027 | $80.11 |
| 2025-09-02 | 53.90% | -2.75 | 0.965 | $79.54 |
| 2025-08-29 | 48.28% | -1.27 | 1.051 | $84.92 |
| 2025-08-28 | 47.20% | -1.00 | 1.080 | $84.92 |
| 2025-08-27 | 51.80% | +0.22 | 0.991 | $87.68 |
| 2025-08-26 | 48.16% | +1.51 | 1.044 | $81.53 |
| 2025-08-25 | 48.74% | +0.99 | 1.037 | $81.29 |
| 2025-08-22 | 49.32% | -0.58 | 0.996 | $81.34 |
| 2025-08-21 | 50.31% | +1.26 | 1.014 | $78.94 |
| 2025-08-20 | 50.84% | -0.31 | 1.033 | $78.12 |
| 2025-08-19 | 49.13% | +1.30 | 1.056 | $80.55 |
| 2025-08-18 | 49.05% | -0.71 | 1.033 | $83.09 |
| 2025-08-15 | 50.53% | +0.26 | 1.021 | $82.19 |
| 2025-08-14 | 52.49% | -1.14 | 1.006 | $81.43 |
| 2025-08-13 | 48.89% | -1.71 | 1.093 | $81.67 |
| 2025-08-12 | 53.61% | -0.83 | 0.998 | $77.98 |
| 2025-08-11 | 57.02% | -3.27 | 0.947 | $80.76 |
| 2025-08-08 | 55.99% | -0.05 | 0.976 | $75.48 |
| 2025-08-07 | 51.76% | +1.26 | 1.008 | $70.06 |
| 2025-08-06 | 50.78% | +3.85 | 1.019 | $67.30 |
| 2025-08-05 | 56.98% | +1.80 | 0.935 | $68.25 |
| 2025-08-04 | 52.97% | +0.30 | 0.987 | $68.56 |
| 2025-08-01 | 50.77% | -0.28 | 1.061 | $67.90 |
| 2025-07-31 | 51.27% | +2.93 | 1.024 | $67.85 |
| 2025-07-30 | 56.08% | +1.08 | 0.969 | $68.89 |
| 2025-07-29 | 61.63% | -0.04 | 0.898 | $71.60 |
| 2025-07-28 | 60.90% | +2.84 | 0.905 | $74.77 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 345 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 345 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 65.21% | 55.43% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 63.46% | 54.77% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 62.55% | 55.12% | 54.14% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 63.75% | 57.14% | 52.53% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 62.76% | 55.90% | 52.33% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 63.42% | 54.92% | 52.36% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 61.11% | 56.24% | 52.74% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 62.34% | 56.73% | 53.56% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 63.35% | 55.86% | 53.49% |
| ATM | 63.65% | 56.34% | 53.71% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 63.11% | 57.95% | 53.54% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 63.77% | 59.16% | 54.75% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 65.57% | 58.49% | 54.53% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 64.29% | 57.85% | 56.04% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 64.73% | 57.43% | 55.10% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 64.80% | 58.49% | 55.61% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 64.46% | 60.27% | — |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 65.60% | 57.84% | — |
| 5Δ 看跌 | — | 59.10% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $94.85 | 63.65% | 64.73% | 62.76% | +1.97 | +0.09 | 16 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $95.00 | 56.34% | 57.43% | 55.90% | +1.53 | +0.32 | 23 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $94.92 | 53.71% | 55.10% | 52.33% | +2.77 | +0.01 | 19 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $95.13 | 51.82% | 54.00% | 52.36% | +1.64 | +1.36 | 28 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $95.05 | 52.19% | 52.78% | 53.69% | -0.91 | +1.05 | 21 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $95.05 | 52.50% | 53.48% | 51.33% | +2.15 | -0.09 | 11 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $95.40 | 54.89% | 57.09% | 50.29% | +6.80 | -1.20 | 17 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $95.25 | 51.08% | 51.16% | 50.29% | +0.86 | -0.35 | 14 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $96.11 | 52.12% | 54.04% | 53.31% | +0.73 | +1.55 | 13 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $95.56 | 50.90% | 52.10% | 51.00% | +1.10 | +0.65 | 17 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $96.51 | 51.03% | 52.68% | 50.27% | +2.42 | +0.45 | 22 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $96.59 | 51.11% | 52.44% | 50.68% | +1.76 | +0.45 | 17 |
| 2027-08-20 | 283 | $97.12 | 50.52% | 52.09% | 51.33% | +0.76 | +1.18 | 23 |
| 2027-11-19 | 374 | $97.54 | 51.29% | 51.73% | 51.17% | +0.56 | +0.16 | 29 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
14 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $94.85 | 63.65% | $95.01 | 16 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $95.00 | 56.34% | $95.41 | 23 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $94.92 | 53.71% | $95.56 | 19 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $95.13 | 51.82% | $95.97 | 28 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $95.05 | 52.19% | $96.16 | 21 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $95.05 | 52.50% | $96.42 | 11 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $95.40 | 54.89% | $97.15 | 17 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $95.25 | 51.08% | $97.53 | 14 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $96.11 | 52.12% | $99.79 | 13 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $95.56 | 50.90% | $100.03 | 17 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $96.51 | 51.03% | $103.35 | 22 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $96.59 | 51.11% | $104.47 | 17 |
| 2027-08-20 | 283 天 | $97.12 | 50.52% | $107.22 | 23 |
| 2027-11-19 | 374 天 | $97.54 | 51.29% | $111.61 | 29 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 52.14%
- 60 天
- 51.86%
- 90 天
- 51.88%
- 180 天
- 51.01%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 345 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 1 次
- 20% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 8.1%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 66.7%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2026-11-04 | 收盘后 | 8.0% | +3.6% | 0.45× |
| 2026-08-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-11 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-30 | 收盘后 | 4.8% | +92.6% | 19.50× |
| 2025-04-30 | 收盘后 | 8.8% | +126.7% | 14.45× |
| 2025-02-12 | 收盘后 | 8.9% | +73.3% | 8.24× |
| 2024-11-06 | 收盘后 | 10.1% | +37.4% | 3.71× |
| 2024-07-31 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-14 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。