股票 · 期权分析
ANET 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $185.02
- 30D ATM IV
- 56.43%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 71
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +7.24
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.954
▲ +1.78 pts 较前一交易日
概览
ANET 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 56.4%,相当于未来一个月约 ±16.2% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 71% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 7.24 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 9% 的交易日差距比这更大。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 5%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-02(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±11.6% 的波动,ANET 实际平均波动 62.1%,5 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 56.43%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +7.24
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.67
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.954
对应 30 天内约 ±16.2% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.6%。
高于过去一年中 71% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 7.24 个点。
高于过去一年中 91% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.67 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 5%。
高于过去一年中 40% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 71%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 44%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 78%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 50%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $185.02
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $186.63
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 53.11%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 53.86%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 55.28%
- 使用的到期日数
- 11
- 总未平仓量
- 222,532
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.79
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 345 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 56.43% | +7.24 | 0.954 | $185.02 |
| 2026-11-09 | 54.65% | +8.60 | 0.984 | $186.17 |
| 2026-11-06 | 58.55% | +7.56 | 0.934 | $170.80 |
| 2026-11-05 | 63.39% | +6.57 | 0.894 | $159.16 |
| 2026-11-04 | 52.36% | +2.81 | 0.975 | $178.48 |
| 2026-11-03 | 63.09% | +4.44 | 0.852 | $169.91 |
| 2026-11-02 | 63.09% | +5.15 | 0.873 | $164.14 |
| 2026-10-30 | 62.58% | +4.28 | 0.867 | $168.86 |
| 2026-10-29 | 58.54% | +1.90 | 0.904 | $184.22 |
| 2026-10-28 | 57.48% | +2.13 | 0.883 | $186.72 |
| 2026-10-27 | 58.25% | +3.40 | 0.875 | $187.00 |
| 2026-10-26 | 58.89% | +2.84 | 0.876 | $177.24 |
| 2026-10-23 | 58.40% | +3.85 | 0.889 | $172.37 |
| 2026-10-22 | 61.63% | +4.04 | 0.858 | $171.07 |
| 2026-10-21 | 58.08% | +3.53 | 0.861 | $184.33 |
| 2026-10-20 | 57.73% | +2.26 | 0.876 | $181.19 |
| 2026-10-19 | 57.02% | +2.91 | 0.875 | $182.95 |
| 2026-10-16 | 59.15% | +3.02 | 0.879 | $176.98 |
| 2026-10-15 | 58.79% | +1.98 | 0.853 | $185.58 |
| 2026-10-14 | 58.08% | +1.56 | 0.867 | $195.42 |
| 2026-10-13 | 56.53% | +2.46 | 0.875 | $204.52 |
| 2026-10-09 | 53.64% | +1.53 | 0.899 | $216.74 |
| 2026-10-08 | 54.79% | +1.11 | 0.895 | $210.97 |
| 2026-10-07 | 54.84% | +0.67 | 0.894 | $215.83 |
| 2026-10-06 | 52.99% | +0.01 | 0.941 | $215.36 |
| 2026-10-05 | 50.63% | +0.87 | 0.973 | $206.90 |
| 2026-10-02 | 48.04% | +0.88 | 1.047 | $207.35 |
| 2026-10-01 | 47.78% | +0.97 | 1.065 | $204.49 |
| 2026-09-30 | 45.37% | +0.13 | 1.119 | $203.59 |
| 2026-09-29 | 45.88% | -2.04 | 1.103 | $202.86 |
| 2026-09-28 | 47.73% | +0.89 | 1.069 | $204.92 |
| 2026-09-25 | 44.13% | +2.02 | 1.155 | $206.55 |
| 2026-09-24 | 46.86% | +0.54 | 1.104 | $205.70 |
| 2026-09-23 | 47.19% | +0.44 | 1.118 | $203.47 |
| 2026-09-22 | 48.14% | -0.62 | 1.098 | $205.19 |
| 2026-09-21 | 48.64% | +0.76 | 1.106 | $205.42 |
| 2026-09-18 | 47.07% | +0.66 | 1.117 | $199.39 |
| 2026-09-17 | 47.48% | +0.90 | 1.107 | $199.53 |
| 2026-09-16 | 50.04% | +0.25 | 1.076 | $197.54 |
| 2026-09-15 | 48.78% | +1.73 | 1.092 | $192.84 |
| 2026-09-14 | 49.19% | +0.66 | 1.084 | $187.81 |
| 2026-09-11 | 46.31% | +2.03 | 1.143 | $199.59 |
| 2026-09-10 | 48.24% | +1.74 | 1.124 | $188.99 |
| 2026-09-09 | 48.83% | +2.19 | 1.108 | $192.93 |
| 2026-09-08 | 49.98% | +1.19 | 1.104 | $194.96 |
| 2026-09-04 | 46.26% | +1.86 | 1.116 | $193.78 |
| 2026-09-03 | 45.96% | -0.02 | 1.123 | $191.44 |
| 2026-09-02 | 45.19% | +1.18 | 1.145 | $186.10 |
| 2026-09-01 | 47.28% | +1.17 | 1.118 | $189.26 |
| 2026-08-31 | 46.44% | +1.70 | 1.134 | $195.69 |
| 2026-08-28 | 47.23% | -0.32 | 1.142 | $195.38 |
| 2026-08-27 | 48.88% | -0.86 | 1.136 | $201.09 |
| 2026-08-26 | 50.31% | +0.04 | 1.102 | $202.25 |
| 2026-08-25 | 48.48% | +2.07 | 1.123 | $190.94 |
| 2026-08-24 | 49.23% | +2.58 | 1.153 | $188.15 |
| 2026-08-21 | 49.08% | +2.70 | 1.147 | $188.65 |
| 2026-08-20 | 46.87% | +0.20 | 1.128 | $183.75 |
| 2026-08-19 | 47.53% | +0.88 | 1.119 | $186.45 |
| 2026-08-18 | 48.33% | +0.21 | 1.147 | $193.18 |
| 2025-10-22 | 68.17% | +2.88 | 0.793 | $146.59 |
| 2025-10-21 | 67.56% | +5.80 | 0.814 | $145.94 |
| 2025-10-20 | 67.18% | +1.15 | 0.809 | $146.48 |
| 2025-10-17 | 64.99% | +4.45 | 0.843 | $143.10 |
| 2025-10-16 | 70.26% | +3.05 | 0.779 | $146.01 |
| 2025-10-15 | 74.60% | -3.24 | 0.726 | $143.38 |
| 2025-10-14 | 71.32% | +2.71 | 0.784 | $138.79 |
| 2025-10-10 | 68.50% | +5.23 | 0.851 | $154.10 |
| 2025-10-09 | 65.82% | -0.22 | 0.838 | $158.23 |
| 2025-10-08 | 68.44% | -6.20 | 0.818 | $157.36 |
| 2025-10-07 | 61.77% | +0.31 | 0.863 | $145.29 |
| 2025-10-06 | 61.41% | -1.45 | 0.865 | $149.50 |
| 2025-10-03 | 50.63% | +1.19 | 0.999 | $145.50 |
| 2025-10-02 | 50.13% | -2.77 | 1.015 | $144.46 |
| 2025-10-01 | 45.85% | +0.50 | 1.077 | $149.27 |
| 2025-09-30 | 44.10% | +1.48 | 1.098 | $145.71 |
| 2025-09-29 | 45.43% | -0.03 | 1.076 | $143.37 |
| 2025-09-26 | 42.32% | +1.32 | 1.153 | $142.50 |
| 2025-09-25 | 44.47% | +1.80 | 1.110 | $143.06 |
| 2025-09-24 | 43.38% | +0.52 | 1.152 | $142.64 |
| 2025-09-23 | 43.47% | -2.18 | 1.160 | $144.09 |
| 2025-09-22 | 43.51% | +1.35 | 1.161 | $145.40 |
| 2025-09-19 | 43.90% | -0.70 | 1.117 | $149.61 |
| 2025-09-18 | 44.00% | +0.28 | 1.132 | $146.66 |
| 2025-09-17 | 43.66% | -0.23 | 1.134 | $142.84 |
| 2025-09-16 | 42.37% | +0.42 | 1.156 | $142.16 |
| 2025-09-15 | 44.71% | -0.09 | 1.106 | $145.43 |
| 2025-09-12 | 39.75% | +0.14 | 1.229 | $139.39 |
| 2025-09-11 | 47.68% | +0.51 | 1.068 | $153.04 |
| 2025-09-10 | 44.27% | -1.44 | 1.137 | $150.72 |
| 2025-09-09 | 42.13% | +0.46 | 1.136 | $141.91 |
| 2025-09-08 | 40.14% | +1.40 | 1.187 | $140.01 |
| 2025-09-05 | 42.10% | +1.95 | 1.107 | $142.85 |
| 2025-09-04 | 40.29% | +3.06 | 1.136 | $141.17 |
| 2025-09-03 | 41.36% | +3.71 | 1.136 | $137.38 |
| 2025-09-02 | 47.10% | +2.33 | 0.993 | $135.87 |
| 2025-08-29 | 39.99% | +3.51 | 1.152 | $136.55 |
| 2025-08-28 | 39.34% | +3.02 | 1.161 | $136.23 |
| 2025-08-27 | 41.72% | +3.21 | 1.096 | $133.27 |
| 2025-08-26 | 39.50% | +1.26 | 1.164 | $134.27 |
| 2025-08-25 | 39.96% | +4.60 | 1.143 | $133.04 |
| 2025-08-22 | 40.13% | +4.13 | 1.147 | $133.25 |
| 2025-08-21 | 40.90% | +4.00 | 1.127 | $132.03 |
| 2025-08-20 | 41.62% | +4.53 | 1.109 | $131.47 |
| 2025-08-19 | 41.52% | +3.93 | 1.119 | $132.78 |
| 2025-08-18 | 38.11% | +3.35 | 1.181 | $138.04 |
| 2025-08-15 | 39.87% | +2.83 | 1.125 | $137.30 |
| 2025-08-14 | 40.04% | +2.90 | 1.107 | $136.48 |
| 2025-08-13 | 41.58% | +3.32 | 1.061 | $138.01 |
| 2025-08-12 | 37.86% | +1.73 | 1.135 | $141.25 |
| 2025-08-11 | 39.53% | +4.49 | 1.104 | $137.65 |
| 2025-08-08 | 36.12% | +3.57 | 1.161 | $139.18 |
| 2025-08-07 | 37.82% | -3.13 | 1.117 | $139.28 |
| 2025-08-06 | 39.39% | -0.64 | 1.082 | $138.78 |
| 2025-08-05 | 55.09% | +2.53 | 0.852 | $118.12 |
| 2025-08-04 | 51.81% | +3.29 | 0.896 | $120.35 |
| 2025-08-01 | 57.55% | -0.10 | 0.832 | $117.57 |
| 2025-07-31 | 51.93% | -0.80 | 0.892 | $123.22 |
| 2025-07-30 | 54.47% | +6.43 | 0.858 | $122.09 |
| 2025-07-29 | 51.30% | +5.84 | 0.884 | $118.62 |
| 2025-07-28 | 55.58% | +3.75 | 0.825 | $117.55 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 345 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 345 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 68.84% | — | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 67.64% | — | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 67.81% | 59.04% | 53.79% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 68.82% | 59.73% | 54.27% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 69.04% | 60.29% | 55.19% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 67.84% | 60.72% | 55.81% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 69.24% | 61.20% | 56.11% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 70.58% | 62.08% | 56.57% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 71.25% | 62.52% | 57.37% |
| ATM | 72.26% | 62.84% | 58.52% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 73.45% | 63.68% | 58.97% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 74.68% | 63.93% | 59.42% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 74.83% | 64.52% | 59.93% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 74.57% | 64.13% | 60.17% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 75.93% | 64.89% | 60.85% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 77.72% | 66.84% | 64.44% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 78.77% | 68.47% | 64.39% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | — | 72.12% | 64.81% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | — | 76.94% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $186.03 | 72.26% | 75.93% | 69.04% | +6.89 | +0.23 | 17 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $186.15 | 62.84% | 64.89% | 60.29% | +4.60 | -0.25 | 22 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $186.45 | 58.52% | 60.85% | 55.19% | +5.66 | -0.50 | 20 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $186.50 | 57.52% | 60.08% | 54.77% | +5.30 | -0.09 | 15 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $186.66 | 56.28% | 60.79% | 53.31% | +7.49 | +0.77 | 15 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $186.53 | 54.91% | 57.99% | 52.69% | +5.29 | +0.43 | 22 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $186.51 | 55.47% | 57.52% | 51.27% | +6.25 | -1.08 | 18 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $187.51 | 52.51% | 55.47% | 50.89% | +4.57 | +0.67 | 23 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $188.68 | 54.96% | 57.74% | 53.15% | +4.58 | +0.49 | 30 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $190.82 | 55.43% | 57.25% | 53.39% | +3.86 | -0.11 | 36 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $192.77 | 54.64% | 56.91% | 53.42% | +3.49 | +0.53 | 34 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
11 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $186.03 | 72.26% | $186.42 | 17 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $186.15 | 62.84% | $187.16 | 22 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $186.45 | 58.52% | $187.94 | 20 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $186.50 | 57.52% | $188.54 | 15 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $186.66 | 56.28% | $189.18 | 15 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $186.53 | 54.91% | $189.48 | 22 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $186.51 | 55.47% | $190.00 | 18 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $187.51 | 52.51% | $192.24 | 23 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $188.68 | 54.96% | $199.02 | 30 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $190.82 | 55.43% | $209.25 | 36 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $192.77 | 54.64% | $218.92 | 34 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 56.43%
- 60 天
- 53.11%
- 90 天
- 53.86%
- 180 天
- 55.28%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 345 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 1 次
- 20% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 11.6%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 62.1%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 收盘后 | 11.6% | +5.0% | 0.44× |
| 2026-08-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-12 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-05 | 收盘后 | 11.5% | +63.5% | 5.52× |
| 2025-05-06 | 收盘后 | 12.2% | +112.8% | 9.28× |
| 2025-02-18 | 收盘后 | 12.4% | +73.9% | 5.95× |
| 2024-11-07 | 收盘后 | 10.4% | -55.2% | 5.31× |
| 2024-07-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-12 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。