股票 · 期权分析
APP 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $395.51
- 30D ATM IV
- 61.11%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 31
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +2.47
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.029
▲ +2.58 pts 较前一交易日
概览
APP 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 61.1%,相当于未来一个月约 ±17.5% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 31% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 2.47 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-03(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±19.3% 的波动,APP 实际平均波动 31.0%,5 次中有 2 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 61.11%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +2.47
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +1.36
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.029
对应 30 天内约 ±17.5% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.8%。
高于过去一年中 31% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 2.47 个点。
高于过去一年中 53% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 1.36 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 3%。
高于过去一年中 49% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 31%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 13%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 33%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 22%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $395.51
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $396.16
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 59.60%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 62.87%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 65.28%
- 使用的到期日数
- 11
- 总未平仓量
- 252,038
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.65
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 345 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 61.11% | +2.47 | 1.029 | $395.51 |
| 2026-11-09 | 58.53% | +3.65 | 1.058 | $410.00 |
| 2026-11-06 | 59.28% | +2.46 | 1.064 | $391.22 |
| 2026-11-05 | 64.06% | +3.60 | 1.007 | $356.10 |
| 2026-11-04 | 84.73% | +4.33 | 0.826 | $271.75 |
| 2026-11-03 | 90.84% | +7.69 | 0.825 | $245.51 |
| 2026-11-02 | 96.99% | +3.89 | 0.787 | $228.85 |
| 2026-10-30 | 94.83% | +6.67 | 0.782 | $228.50 |
| 2026-10-29 | 82.29% | +1.36 | 0.830 | $254.91 |
| 2026-10-28 | 80.61% | +3.43 | 0.839 | $259.97 |
| 2026-10-27 | 81.90% | +2.81 | 0.825 | $262.82 |
| 2026-10-26 | 82.55% | +3.91 | 0.810 | $260.74 |
| 2026-10-23 | 82.47% | +2.57 | 0.808 | $260.25 |
| 2026-10-22 | 81.78% | +3.29 | 0.821 | $264.28 |
| 2026-10-21 | 79.72% | +5.83 | 0.807 | $267.90 |
| 2026-10-20 | 79.16% | +3.81 | 0.834 | $272.46 |
| 2026-10-19 | 77.63% | +3.18 | 0.833 | $269.12 |
| 2026-10-16 | 81.35% | +3.79 | 0.813 | $266.13 |
| 2026-10-15 | 79.18% | +2.23 | 0.826 | $279.29 |
| 2026-10-14 | 77.48% | +2.54 | 0.841 | $262.19 |
| 2026-10-13 | 77.00% | -0.47 | 0.845 | $272.28 |
| 2026-10-09 | 74.03% | -1.30 | 0.852 | $277.04 |
| 2026-10-08 | 73.66% | +0.68 | 0.875 | $280.12 |
| 2026-10-07 | 70.70% | -1.11 | 0.908 | $281.29 |
| 2026-10-06 | 68.10% | -0.92 | 0.947 | $278.78 |
| 2026-10-05 | 68.06% | -0.49 | 0.966 | $281.97 |
| 2026-10-02 | 59.35% | -2.05 | 1.100 | $268.22 |
| 2026-10-01 | 58.96% | +0.37 | 1.124 | $281.31 |
| 2026-09-30 | 56.00% | -0.77 | 1.157 | $290.43 |
| 2026-09-29 | 56.74% | -1.87 | 1.155 | $305.66 |
| 2026-09-28 | 56.77% | -0.69 | 1.161 | $308.24 |
| 2026-09-25 | 53.92% | -1.86 | 1.198 | $310.75 |
| 2026-09-24 | 55.97% | -0.03 | 1.182 | $312.47 |
| 2026-09-23 | 55.34% | -2.64 | 1.191 | $315.25 |
| 2026-09-22 | 56.39% | -0.69 | 1.166 | $328.73 |
| 2026-09-21 | 55.11% | +2.64 | 1.219 | $330.17 |
| 2026-09-18 | 53.37% | -0.17 | 1.223 | $308.06 |
| 2026-09-17 | 53.38% | +0.06 | 1.195 | $321.60 |
| 2026-09-16 | 55.12% | -0.34 | 1.130 | $326.56 |
| 2026-09-15 | 56.43% | +2.54 | 1.225 | $331.46 |
| 2026-09-14 | 54.28% | +0.07 | 1.223 | $334.24 |
| 2026-09-11 | 54.71% | -4.62 | 1.158 | $323.96 |
| 2026-09-10 | 53.70% | +0.65 | 1.239 | $314.49 |
| 2026-09-09 | 53.93% | +0.45 | 1.232 | $305.06 |
| 2026-09-08 | 56.69% | -1.78 | 1.173 | $312.01 |
| 2026-09-04 | 54.85% | -0.79 | 1.193 | $320.56 |
| 2026-09-03 | 54.24% | -2.75 | 1.225 | $313.58 |
| 2026-09-02 | 54.88% | -7.59 | 1.169 | $319.05 |
| 2026-09-01 | 54.27% | +0.80 | 1.238 | $311.74 |
| 2026-08-31 | 50.39% | -0.23 | 1.324 | $312.06 |
| 2026-08-28 | 54.21% | -0.71 | 1.210 | $317.76 |
| 2026-08-27 | 51.03% | -0.01 | 1.291 | $312.63 |
| 2026-08-26 | 55.13% | -7.23 | 1.181 | $308.11 |
| 2026-08-25 | 55.14% | +2.45 | 1.192 | $310.54 |
| 2026-08-24 | 52.29% | +5.47 | 1.264 | $298.59 |
| 2026-08-21 | 54.52% | -0.95 | 1.256 | $305.77 |
| 2026-08-20 | 53.96% | +1.61 | 1.232 | $308.77 |
| 2026-08-19 | 54.06% | -2.10 | 1.223 | $310.79 |
| 2026-08-18 | 53.52% | -0.55 | 1.213 | $307.26 |
| 2025-10-22 | 82.09% | +4.81 | 0.838 | $564.82 |
| 2025-10-21 | 81.55% | +3.25 | 0.825 | $552.64 |
| 2025-10-20 | 81.61% | +3.60 | 0.819 | $565.94 |
| 2025-10-17 | 79.44% | +5.98 | 0.846 | $599.31 |
| 2025-10-16 | 82.26% | +4.43 | 0.816 | $605.68 |
| 2025-10-15 | 83.57% | +1.31 | 0.797 | $602.30 |
| 2025-10-14 | 80.19% | +6.77 | 0.826 | $590.03 |
| 2025-10-10 | 81.03% | +5.91 | 0.849 | $569.89 |
| 2025-10-09 | 78.69% | +6.05 | 0.846 | $600.32 |
| 2025-10-08 | 81.17% | +4.52 | 0.827 | $629.70 |
| 2025-10-07 | 79.48% | +6.12 | 0.852 | $631.85 |
| 2025-10-06 | 83.80% | +6.25 | 0.838 | $587.00 |
| 2025-10-03 | 63.41% | +1.20 | 1.040 | $682.76 |
| 2025-10-02 | 59.33% | +1.50 | 1.107 | $683.64 |
| 2025-10-01 | 61.61% | -4.71 | 1.105 | $704.09 |
| 2025-09-30 | 58.77% | +0.52 | 1.148 | $718.54 |
| 2025-09-29 | 58.10% | +1.44 | — | $712.36 |
| 2025-09-26 | 54.42% | +5.29 | 1.189 | $669.86 |
| 2025-09-25 | 49.94% | +2.09 | 1.269 | $639.91 |
| 2025-09-24 | 55.64% | +0.54 | 1.160 | $641.92 |
| 2025-09-23 | 57.61% | +2.42 | 1.137 | $651.18 |
| 2025-09-22 | 53.39% | +2.92 | 1.204 | $643.50 |
| 2025-09-19 | 53.09% | +2.61 | 1.194 | $649.59 |
| 2025-09-18 | 51.26% | +2.18 | 1.232 | $621.52 |
| 2025-09-17 | 51.21% | +2.77 | 1.203 | $606.66 |
| 2025-09-16 | 51.97% | +2.32 | 1.199 | $603.80 |
| 2025-09-15 | 51.68% | +2.69 | 1.180 | $593.14 |
| 2025-09-12 | 51.43% | +2.12 | 1.190 | $582.00 |
| 2025-09-11 | 50.55% | +4.50 | 1.174 | $571.31 |
| 2025-09-10 | 54.86% | +1.53 | 1.117 | $567.12 |
| 2025-09-09 | 53.45% | -0.39 | 1.146 | $558.17 |
| 2025-09-08 | 52.96% | +0.54 | 1.153 | $547.04 |
| 2025-09-05 | 59.39% | +3.69 | 1.128 | $490.24 |
| 2025-09-04 | 60.05% | +5.31 | 1.110 | $499.97 |
| 2025-09-03 | 58.71% | +2.36 | 1.143 | $487.35 |
| 2025-09-02 | 60.20% | +1.56 | 1.119 | $481.73 |
| 2025-08-29 | 57.15% | +1.97 | 1.139 | $478.59 |
| 2025-08-28 | 56.53% | -0.81 | 1.135 | $483.75 |
| 2025-08-27 | 56.84% | -0.76 | 1.192 | $462.94 |
| 2025-08-26 | 63.04% | +0.45 | 1.053 | $469.33 |
| 2025-08-25 | 61.92% | +5.56 | 1.087 | $450.68 |
| 2025-08-22 | 55.87% | +5.46 | 1.204 | $441.68 |
| 2025-08-21 | 58.99% | +3.66 | 1.134 | $418.76 |
| 2025-08-20 | 59.01% | +3.98 | 1.109 | $412.38 |
| 2025-08-19 | 57.96% | +3.98 | 1.120 | $412.60 |
| 2025-08-18 | 53.74% | +3.12 | 1.170 | $438.54 |
| 2025-08-15 | 53.65% | +2.35 | 1.153 | $438.68 |
| 2025-08-14 | 54.57% | +2.48 | 1.157 | $433.34 |
| 2025-08-13 | 54.09% | -5.02 | 1.148 | $446.40 |
| 2025-08-12 | 51.87% | +2.72 | 1.145 | $467.00 |
| 2025-08-11 | 55.31% | +0.62 | 1.148 | $465.58 |
| 2025-08-08 | 55.82% | -0.80 | 1.126 | $455.98 |
| 2025-08-07 | 56.94% | +3.65 | 1.078 | $437.34 |
| 2025-08-06 | 85.55% | -0.03 | 0.821 | $390.57 |
| 2025-08-05 | 85.00% | -0.17 | 0.849 | $377.93 |
| 2025-08-04 | 84.08% | +1.80 | 0.870 | $395.01 |
| 2025-08-01 | 84.41% | +2.69 | 0.869 | $379.17 |
| 2025-07-31 | 80.72% | -0.00 | 0.852 | $390.70 |
| 2025-07-30 | 85.14% | -3.18 | 0.800 | $363.31 |
| 2025-07-29 | 82.36% | -0.48 | 0.824 | $361.63 |
| 2025-07-28 | 81.46% | -0.56 | 0.841 | $370.96 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 345 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 345 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 74.14% | — | 60.53% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 73.04% | 66.15% | 59.56% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 72.21% | 65.20% | 59.28% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 71.92% | 65.61% | 59.17% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 71.83% | 65.18% | 59.33% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 71.33% | 65.44% | 59.52% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 71.51% | 65.08% | 59.52% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 71.80% | 65.29% | 60.08% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 72.49% | 65.79% | 60.08% |
| ATM | 72.43% | 65.91% | 59.76% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 72.62% | 64.87% | 59.11% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 72.77% | 65.48% | 59.63% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 72.77% | 65.07% | 58.81% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 73.74% | 65.64% | 59.77% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 73.97% | 65.97% | 60.49% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 76.00% | 66.61% | 61.38% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 77.48% | 67.96% | 62.65% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 79.63% | 70.16% | 64.61% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 83.78% | 77.87% | 68.94% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $395.30 | 72.43% | 73.97% | 71.83% | +2.14 | +0.47 | 42 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $395.20 | 65.91% | 65.97% | 65.18% | +0.79 | -0.33 | 45 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $395.80 | 59.76% | 60.49% | 59.33% | +1.16 | +0.16 | 50 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $396.80 | 60.72% | 62.40% | 58.88% | +3.52 | -0.08 | 44 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $396.05 | 61.16% | 63.87% | 61.53% | +2.34 | +1.54 | 37 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $396.89 | 59.34% | 60.78% | 58.28% | +2.51 | +0.19 | 39 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $395.88 | 63.17% | 61.26% | 59.39% | +1.87 | -2.85 | 42 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $397.83 | 58.67% | 59.51% | 57.67% | +1.84 | -0.08 | 47 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $399.24 | 64.08% | 66.68% | 63.38% | +3.31 | +0.95 | 62 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $401.93 | 63.13% | 65.34% | 61.93% | +3.42 | +0.51 | 63 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $401.33 | 66.23% | 65.47% | 64.78% | +0.69 | -1.10 | 105 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
11 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $395.30 | 72.43% | $396.15 | 42 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $395.20 | 65.91% | $397.56 | 45 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $395.80 | 59.76% | $399.11 | 50 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $396.80 | 60.72% | $401.64 | 44 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $396.05 | 61.16% | $402.40 | 37 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $396.89 | 59.34% | $404.23 | 39 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $395.88 | 63.17% | $405.52 | 42 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $397.83 | 58.67% | $410.41 | 47 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $399.24 | 64.08% | $422.58 | 62 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $401.93 | 63.13% | $431.25 | 63 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $401.33 | 66.23% | $457.77 | 105 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 61.11%
- 60 天
- 59.60%
- 90 天
- 62.87%
- 180 天
- 65.28%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 345 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 2 次
- 40% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 19.3%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 31.0%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 收盘后 | 18.1% | +31.0% | 1.71× |
| 2026-08-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-11 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-06 | 收盘后 | 18.0% | -21.3% | 1.19× |
| 2025-05-07 | 收盘后 | 22.8% | +1.3% | 0.05× |
| 2025-02-12 | 收盘后 | 21.5% | -19.2% | 0.89× |
| 2024-11-06 | 收盘后 | 15.8% | +82.3% | 5.19× |
| 2024-08-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-08 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-14 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-08 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。