股票 · 期权分析
ARES 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $139.41
- 30D ATM IV
- —
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- —
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- —
- 期限斜率 90/30
- —
本交易日无法计算任何指标
概览
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-28(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 7 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±6.1% 的波动,ARES 实际平均波动 8.5%,7 次中有 4 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- —
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- —
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- —
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- —
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 75 个交易日(一年窗口)
这个窗口内的历史不足,无法定位当前读数。
- IV 百分位,1 年
- —
- IV 排名,1 年
- —
- IV 百分位,2 年
- —
- IV 排名,2 年
- —
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $139.41
- 30 天隐含远期价
- —
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 37.68%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 39.36%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 39.12%
- 使用的到期日数
- 6
- 总未平仓量
- 37,820
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.69
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 345 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | — | — | — | $139.41 |
| 2026-11-09 | 39.74% | +5.36 | 0.984 | $139.58 |
| 2026-11-06 | 39.67% | +4.54 | 1.011 | $133.98 |
| 2026-11-05 | 42.73% | +6.07 | 0.925 | $133.72 |
| 2026-11-04 | 38.05% | +4.25 | 0.995 | $136.85 |
| 2026-11-03 | 40.56% | +3.75 | 0.965 | $128.93 |
| 2026-11-02 | 40.29% | +1.86 | 0.967 | $132.96 |
| 2026-10-30 | — | — | — | $128.15 |
| 2026-10-29 | 39.77% | +3.36 | 0.976 | $127.47 |
| 2026-10-28 | — | — | — | $123.82 |
| 2026-10-27 | 46.71% | +5.67 | 0.887 | $122.19 |
| 2026-10-26 | 47.50% | +4.98 | 0.874 | $121.88 |
| 2026-10-23 | 46.47% | +3.94 | 0.889 | $122.08 |
| 2026-10-22 | 46.39% | +4.62 | 0.881 | $123.70 |
| 2026-10-21 | 45.78% | +6.05 | 0.890 | $117.01 |
| 2026-10-20 | 44.79% | +2.64 | 0.932 | $116.29 |
| 2026-10-19 | 44.29% | +3.04 | 0.914 | $113.00 |
| 2026-10-16 | — | — | — | $112.27 |
| 2026-10-15 | 43.87% | +3.33 | 0.918 | $114.03 |
| 2026-10-14 | 44.47% | +2.91 | 0.913 | $112.49 |
| 2026-10-13 | 43.71% | +4.74 | 0.919 | $115.62 |
| 2026-10-09 | 42.43% | +2.50 | 0.957 | $117.22 |
| 2026-10-08 | 43.46% | +2.98 | 0.936 | $116.26 |
| 2026-10-07 | 41.76% | +1.95 | 0.970 | $115.75 |
| 2026-10-06 | 43.88% | +2.46 | 0.927 | $117.74 |
| 2026-10-05 | 43.45% | +3.80 | 0.956 | $117.13 |
| 2026-10-02 | — | — | — | $117.55 |
| 2026-10-01 | — | — | — | $116.57 |
| 2026-09-30 | 41.31% | +2.41 | 1.020 | $116.17 |
| 2026-09-29 | 42.87% | +3.02 | 1.006 | $118.97 |
| 2026-09-28 | 44.25% | +2.68 | 0.974 | $118.34 |
| 2026-09-25 | 42.35% | +2.47 | 1.008 | $122.01 |
| 2026-09-24 | 41.62% | +2.59 | 1.010 | $120.11 |
| 2026-09-23 | 41.60% | +2.21 | 1.002 | $121.48 |
| 2026-09-22 | 41.83% | +2.99 | 1.016 | $124.72 |
| 2026-09-21 | 41.09% | +2.59 | 0.999 | $126.67 |
| 2026-09-18 | — | — | — | $123.80 |
| 2026-09-17 | 40.15% | +2.34 | 1.020 | $125.32 |
| 2026-09-16 | 39.96% | +2.69 | 1.060 | $124.21 |
| 2026-09-15 | 39.22% | +1.82 | 1.057 | $129.10 |
| 2026-09-14 | — | — | — | $131.52 |
| 2026-09-11 | — | — | — | $131.64 |
| 2026-09-10 | — | — | — | $130.63 |
| 2026-09-09 | 41.19% | +0.91 | 0.987 | $134.37 |
| 2026-09-08 | — | — | — | $138.62 |
| 2026-09-04 | 36.80% | +3.97 | 1.041 | $140.15 |
| 2026-09-03 | — | — | — | $141.52 |
| 2026-09-02 | — | — | — | $138.06 |
| 2026-09-01 | 37.90% | +1.52 | 1.032 | $139.09 |
| 2026-08-31 | 38.54% | +2.19 | 1.021 | $143.17 |
| 2026-08-28 | 37.28% | +4.34 | 1.026 | $142.53 |
| 2026-08-27 | 37.16% | +2.51 | 1.035 | $142.41 |
| 2026-08-26 | 38.30% | +2.42 | 1.038 | $141.98 |
| 2026-08-25 | 37.67% | +4.18 | 1.062 | $142.76 |
| 2026-08-24 | 38.23% | +2.89 | 1.038 | $140.01 |
| 2026-08-21 | 38.35% | +3.03 | 1.041 | $141.25 |
| 2026-08-20 | 39.95% | +0.50 | 1.018 | $140.23 |
| 2026-08-19 | 38.30% | +1.82 | 1.040 | $143.10 |
| 2026-08-18 | — | — | — | $140.31 |
| 2025-10-22 | 44.25% | +4.04 | 0.906 | $150.10 |
| 2025-10-21 | — | — | — | $150.11 |
| 2025-10-20 | — | — | — | $146.61 |
| 2025-10-17 | — | — | — | $141.87 |
| 2025-10-16 | — | — | — | $141.24 |
| 2025-10-15 | — | — | — | $151.09 |
| 2025-10-14 | — | — | — | $149.58 |
| 2025-10-10 | — | — | — | $140.88 |
| 2025-10-09 | — | — | — | $147.26 |
| 2025-10-08 | — | — | — | $149.80 |
| 2025-10-07 | — | — | — | $148.64 |
| 2025-10-06 | — | — | — | $150.10 |
| 2025-10-03 | — | — | — | $152.40 |
| 2025-10-02 | — | — | — | $150.61 |
| 2025-10-01 | — | — | — | $154.14 |
| 2025-09-30 | — | — | — | $159.89 |
| 2025-09-29 | — | — | — | $163.42 |
| 2025-09-26 | 35.23% | +3.29 | 0.992 | $163.05 |
| 2025-09-25 | — | — | — | $163.32 |
| 2025-09-24 | 33.81% | +3.69 | 1.005 | $168.23 |
| 2025-09-23 | 33.23% | +4.94 | 0.963 | $181.15 |
| 2025-09-22 | 30.71% | +2.05 | 1.013 | $181.99 |
| 2025-09-19 | 30.83% | +5.75 | 1.082 | $183.00 |
| 2025-09-18 | 31.36% | -0.80 | 1.035 | $183.42 |
| 2025-09-17 | 31.32% | +2.05 | 1.056 | $178.89 |
| 2025-09-16 | — | — | — | $178.61 |
| 2025-09-15 | — | — | — | $179.92 |
| 2025-09-12 | — | — | — | $182.79 |
| 2025-09-11 | — | — | — | $184.71 |
| 2025-09-10 | — | — | — | $178.93 |
| 2025-09-09 | — | — | — | $175.07 |
| 2025-09-08 | — | — | — | $176.25 |
| 2025-09-05 | — | — | — | $177.31 |
| 2025-09-04 | 32.11% | +3.37 | 1.002 | $180.05 |
| 2025-09-03 | — | — | — | $176.82 |
| 2025-09-02 | 37.52% | +1.90 | 0.939 | $179.78 |
| 2025-08-29 | 30.40% | +2.20 | 1.036 | $179.20 |
| 2025-08-28 | 29.42% | +2.20 | 1.074 | $180.27 |
| 2025-08-27 | — | — | — | $179.51 |
| 2025-08-26 | — | — | — | $178.93 |
| 2025-08-25 | — | — | — | $178.13 |
| 2025-08-22 | — | — | — | $181.07 |
| 2025-08-21 | 31.63% | +4.31 | 1.012 | $178.26 |
| 2025-08-20 | 32.88% | +3.79 | 0.981 | $178.93 |
| 2025-08-19 | — | — | — | $180.59 |
| 2025-08-18 | — | — | — | $189.27 |
| 2025-08-15 | — | — | — | $187.78 |
| 2025-08-14 | — | — | — | $190.45 |
| 2025-08-13 | — | — | — | $190.94 |
| 2025-08-12 | — | — | — | $192.76 |
| 2025-08-11 | — | — | — | $186.55 |
| 2025-08-08 | — | — | — | $188.43 |
| 2025-08-07 | — | — | — | $186.95 |
| 2025-08-06 | — | — | — | $189.29 |
| 2025-08-05 | — | — | — | $187.98 |
| 2025-08-04 | — | — | — | $188.55 |
| 2025-08-01 | — | — | — | $182.83 |
| 2025-07-31 | — | — | — | $185.53 |
| 2025-07-30 | 34.14% | +5.11 | 0.930 | $187.73 |
| 2025-07-29 | 34.02% | +3.76 | 0.932 | $187.93 |
| 2025-07-28 | — | — | — | $187.36 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 345 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 345 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
38d (2026-12-18) · 66d (2027-01-15) · 101d (2027-02-19)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 38d | 66d | 101d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Δ 看涨 | 36.38% | — | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 37.23% | 35.59% | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 37.55% | 35.83% | 38.50% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 37.90% | 35.97% | 38.15% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 38.29% | 36.10% | 38.13% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 38.75% | 36.27% | 38.42% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 39.15% | 36.73% | 38.57% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 39.31% | 37.13% | 39.27% |
| ATM | 39.44% | 37.39% | 39.93% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 39.86% | 37.49% | 40.17% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 40.64% | 37.55% | 39.70% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 40.99% | 37.78% | 40.70% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 41.12% | 38.23% | 42.08% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 41.69% | 38.95% | 42.82% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 43.61% | 39.85% | 43.79% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 44.79% | 42.19% | 45.48% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | — | 45.35% | 46.53% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $139.55 | 39.44% | 41.69% | 37.90% | +3.79 | +0.36 | 10 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $139.29 | 37.39% | 38.95% | 35.97% | +2.98 | +0.07 | 12 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $140.10 | 39.93% | 42.82% | 38.15% | +4.68 | +0.56 | 14 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $139.49 | 39.56% | 41.10% | 38.47% | +2.62 | +0.22 | 16 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $140.15 | 38.92% | 41.89% | 38.01% | +3.88 | +1.03 | 22 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $140.88 | 39.25% | 42.96% | 37.54% | +5.43 | +1.00 | 19 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
6 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $139.55 | 39.44% | $140.68 | 10 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $139.29 | 37.39% | $141.07 | 12 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $140.10 | 39.93% | $143.23 | 14 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $139.49 | 39.56% | $143.40 | 16 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $140.15 | 38.92% | $146.67 | 22 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $140.88 | 39.25% | $150.44 | 19 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- —
- 60 天
- 37.68%
- 90 天
- 39.36%
- 180 天
- 39.12%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 345 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 7 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 7 次中 4 次
- 57% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 6.1%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 8.5%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | 未说明时间 | 5.1% | -3.0% | 0.60× |
| 2026-10-30 | 未说明时间 | 5.5% | +3.8% | 0.68× |
| 2026-10-29 | 收盘后 | 3.3% | +0.5% | 0.16× |
| 2026-07-31 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-03 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-01 | 收盘后 | 6.8% | -23.3% | 3.42× |
| 2025-05-05 | 收盘后 | 7.1% | -12.7% | 1.78× |
| 2025-02-05 | 开盘前 | 7.8% | -2.9% | 0.37× |
| 2024-11-01 | 收盘后 | 7.0% | -13.3% | 1.90× |
| 2024-08-02 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-02 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-08 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-31 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。