ETF · 期权分析
ARKK 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $77.10
- 30D ATM IV
- 42.98%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 73
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +3.88
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.956
▲ +0.91 pts 较前一交易日
概览
ARKK 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 43.0%,相当于未来一个月约 ±12.3% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 251 个交易日中 73% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 3.88 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 4%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 42.98%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +3.88
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +1.11
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.956
对应 30 天内约 ±12.3% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.7%。
高于过去一年中 73% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 3.88 个点。
高于过去一年中 41% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 1.11 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 4%。
高于过去一年中 26% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 251 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 73%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 27%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 80%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 31%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $77.10
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $76.76
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 41.62%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 41.11%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 42.06%
- 使用的到期日数
- 9
- 总未平仓量
- 367,206
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.50
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 345 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 42.98% | +3.88 | 0.956 | $77.10 |
| 2026-11-09 | 42.07% | +4.98 | 1.006 | $78.98 |
| 2026-11-06 | 46.12% | +6.31 | 0.928 | $75.46 |
| 2026-11-05 | 49.02% | +8.17 | 0.898 | $73.15 |
| 2026-11-04 | 39.14% | +4.42 | 1.024 | $80.37 |
| 2026-11-03 | 42.47% | +2.21 | 0.963 | $80.32 |
| 2026-11-02 | 43.86% | +4.32 | 0.963 | $78.96 |
| 2026-10-30 | 44.74% | +3.84 | 0.909 | $80.75 |
| 2026-10-29 | 38.58% | +2.45 | 0.976 | $85.97 |
| 2026-10-28 | 39.08% | +2.16 | 0.922 | $86.12 |
| 2026-10-27 | 39.78% | -2.11 | 0.887 | $84.78 |
| 2026-10-26 | 36.52% | +2.86 | 1.020 | $81.84 |
| 2026-10-23 | 37.97% | +2.33 | 1.070 | $81.99 |
| 2026-10-22 | 44.25% | +3.01 | 0.901 | $81.86 |
| 2026-10-21 | 35.59% | +3.80 | 1.032 | $85.42 |
| 2026-10-20 | 37.28% | +3.98 | 1.014 | $83.42 |
| 2026-10-19 | 38.67% | +2.39 | 0.966 | $82.31 |
| 2026-10-16 | 40.19% | +4.16 | 0.906 | $81.65 |
| 2026-10-15 | 34.49% | +3.69 | 1.002 | $85.69 |
| 2026-10-14 | 35.87% | +3.71 | 1.008 | $84.48 |
| 2026-10-13 | 34.66% | +2.26 | 1.025 | $87.17 |
| 2026-10-09 | 32.23% | +3.90 | 1.064 | $89.62 |
| 2026-10-08 | 34.22% | +1.88 | 1.040 | $87.60 |
| 2026-10-07 | 34.69% | +1.39 | 1.030 | $88.30 |
| 2026-10-06 | 35.06% | +2.70 | 0.988 | $90.49 |
| 2026-10-05 | 34.64% | +4.06 | 1.037 | $92.78 |
| 2026-10-02 | 33.35% | +2.89 | 1.080 | $89.83 |
| 2026-10-01 | 35.59% | +1.27 | 1.037 | $88.58 |
| 2026-09-30 | 35.94% | +2.51 | 0.997 | $89.10 |
| 2026-09-29 | 34.66% | +1.69 | 1.060 | $89.45 |
| 2026-09-28 | 36.00% | +1.99 | 1.035 | $89.25 |
| 2026-09-25 | 35.11% | +3.05 | 1.005 | $90.77 |
| 2026-09-24 | 34.43% | +3.86 | 1.006 | $91.70 |
| 2026-09-23 | 34.42% | +0.68 | 0.982 | $89.77 |
| 2026-09-22 | 33.67% | +2.50 | 1.063 | $91.61 |
| 2026-09-21 | 34.60% | +2.24 | 1.042 | $90.72 |
| 2026-09-18 | 32.12% | +2.23 | 1.095 | $88.23 |
| 2026-09-17 | 33.64% | +2.40 | 1.050 | $86.92 |
| 2026-09-16 | 34.47% | +6.14 | 1.071 | $83.18 |
| 2026-09-15 | 35.75% | +4.23 | 1.057 | $83.49 |
| 2026-09-14 | 34.91% | +2.26 | 1.099 | $84.72 |
| 2026-09-11 | 36.29% | -0.02 | 1.024 | $83.58 |
| 2026-09-10 | 35.85% | +4.15 | 1.052 | $83.06 |
| 2026-09-09 | 35.80% | +1.04 | 1.024 | $84.56 |
| 2026-09-08 | 36.25% | +2.33 | 1.032 | $86.08 |
| 2026-09-04 | 34.64% | +0.06 | 1.057 | $86.22 |
| 2026-09-03 | 33.74% | +4.16 | 1.053 | $87.14 |
| 2026-09-02 | 32.50% | +2.84 | 1.149 | $83.39 |
| 2026-09-01 | 37.43% | +1.51 | 0.978 | $83.08 |
| 2026-08-31 | 33.97% | +3.81 | 1.135 | $85.57 |
| 2026-08-28 | 34.72% | +1.00 | 1.121 | $84.59 |
| 2026-08-27 | 35.83% | +0.72 | 1.098 | $87.38 |
| 2026-08-26 | 36.75% | +1.93 | 1.020 | $85.78 |
| 2026-08-25 | 35.66% | +3.67 | 1.091 | $86.37 |
| 2026-08-24 | 37.15% | +0.93 | 0.971 | $83.92 |
| 2026-08-21 | 34.59% | +3.77 | 1.155 | $86.21 |
| 2026-08-20 | 35.44% | +1.44 | 1.084 | $83.27 |
| 2026-08-19 | 37.09% | +0.61 | 1.030 | $83.31 |
| 2026-08-18 | — | — | — | $79.15 |
| 2025-10-22 | 47.69% | +5.01 | 0.948 | $85.35 |
| 2025-10-21 | 43.26% | +4.56 | 1.000 | $88.65 |
| 2025-10-20 | 46.34% | +4.59 | 0.931 | $90.01 |
| 2025-10-17 | 52.79% | +7.98 | 0.901 | $86.24 |
| 2025-10-16 | 51.75% | +7.72 | 0.938 | $86.68 |
| 2025-10-15 | 44.27% | +10.21 | 1.040 | $89.30 |
| 2025-10-14 | 49.33% | +7.75 | 0.928 | $86.86 |
| 2025-10-10 | 46.05% | +7.70 | 0.981 | $86.52 |
| 2025-10-09 | 47.83% | +6.54 | 0.920 | $91.66 |
| 2025-10-08 | 46.74% | +3.66 | 0.966 | $92.53 |
| 2025-10-07 | 41.69% | +4.02 | 1.006 | $89.11 |
| 2025-10-06 | 46.17% | +4.23 | 0.945 | $91.59 |
| 2025-10-03 | 45.26% | +3.52 | 0.914 | $88.32 |
| 2025-10-02 | 44.72% | +5.28 | 0.883 | $89.22 |
| 2025-10-01 | 44.69% | +6.31 | 0.924 | $86.92 |
| 2025-09-30 | 41.22% | +5.09 | 0.960 | $86.30 |
| 2025-09-29 | 41.58% | +7.47 | 0.932 | $86.17 |
| 2025-09-26 | 44.85% | +4.21 | 0.937 | $83.10 |
| 2025-09-25 | 45.63% | +1.50 | 0.939 | $81.63 |
| 2025-09-24 | 37.38% | +5.56 | 1.062 | $83.46 |
| 2025-09-23 | 38.72% | +3.08 | 1.006 | $83.58 |
| 2025-09-22 | 38.57% | +3.33 | 0.991 | $84.69 |
| 2025-09-19 | 38.23% | +1.02 | 1.044 | $84.96 |
| 2025-09-18 | 37.80% | +4.03 | 1.004 | $83.16 |
| 2025-09-17 | 36.97% | +4.90 | 1.003 | $80.67 |
| 2025-09-16 | 36.20% | +5.49 | 1.020 | $81.03 |
| 2025-09-15 | 35.22% | +3.86 | 1.051 | $79.72 |
| 2025-09-12 | 34.17% | +3.67 | 1.068 | $78.57 |
| 2025-09-11 | 33.92% | +3.27 | 1.056 | $78.30 |
| 2025-09-10 | 35.09% | +4.35 | 1.039 | $75.56 |
| 2025-09-09 | 34.17% | +6.40 | 1.060 | $76.59 |
| 2025-09-08 | 34.24% | +5.11 | 1.067 | $76.13 |
| 2025-09-05 | 33.99% | +4.97 | 1.078 | $75.37 |
| 2025-09-04 | 34.67% | +5.07 | 1.079 | $75.02 |
| 2025-09-03 | 36.18% | +5.40 | 1.033 | $74.79 |
| 2025-09-02 | 37.75% | +7.83 | 1.014 | $74.41 |
| 2025-08-29 | 33.65% | +6.88 | 1.112 | $74.96 |
| 2025-08-28 | 35.07% | +3.34 | 1.069 | $76.07 |
| 2025-08-27 | 42.87% | -0.40 | 0.815 | $75.52 |
| 2025-08-26 | 35.14% | +8.40 | 1.068 | $76.27 |
| 2025-08-25 | 35.63% | +6.16 | 1.073 | $75.66 |
| 2025-08-22 | 34.28% | +4.20 | 1.100 | $76.52 |
| 2025-08-21 | 37.28% | +5.29 | 1.040 | $73.51 |
| 2025-08-20 | 35.68% | +4.85 | 1.079 | $73.78 |
| 2025-08-19 | 37.63% | +3.57 | 1.033 | $74.03 |
| 2025-08-18 | 36.19% | +2.45 | 1.042 | $77.11 |
| 2025-08-15 | 35.83% | +3.52 | 1.068 | $77.01 |
| 2025-08-14 | 37.88% | +2.95 | 1.017 | $77.05 |
| 2025-08-13 | 37.49% | +3.65 | 1.015 | $77.91 |
| 2025-08-12 | 36.68% | +3.73 | 1.035 | $76.78 |
| 2025-08-11 | 40.01% | +3.33 | 0.984 | $75.23 |
| 2025-08-08 | 36.71% | +3.90 | 1.037 | $74.76 |
| 2025-08-07 | 36.26% | +7.06 | 1.058 | $74.35 |
| 2025-08-06 | 37.62% | +5.21 | 1.027 | $74.16 |
| 2025-08-05 | 40.27% | +4.95 | 0.990 | $72.63 |
| 2025-08-04 | 38.14% | +5.20 | 1.013 | $73.59 |
| 2025-08-01 | 35.52% | +8.54 | 1.127 | $71.16 |
| 2025-07-31 | 38.42% | +6.68 | 1.047 | $75.33 |
| 2025-07-30 | 38.79% | +6.22 | 1.018 | $75.65 |
| 2025-07-29 | 38.42% | +9.13 | 1.037 | $74.74 |
| 2025-07-28 | 37.76% | +5.22 | 1.026 | $76.84 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 345 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 345 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 49.42% | 45.44% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 47.86% | 44.01% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 46.85% | 43.15% | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 46.63% | 43.10% | 40.96% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 47.37% | 45.84% | 42.15% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 47.42% | 43.88% | 40.86% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 47.54% | 42.81% | 41.61% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 48.04% | 44.48% | 41.90% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 48.77% | 45.42% | 42.12% |
| ATM | 49.51% | 45.47% | 42.44% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 50.19% | 46.10% | 43.14% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 50.94% | 46.34% | 43.82% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 51.91% | 46.81% | 44.48% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 53.03% | 48.71% | 45.61% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 54.30% | 48.78% | 47.13% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 55.07% | 50.67% | 47.59% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 55.40% | 52.19% | 49.22% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 56.56% | — | 50.31% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 59.14% | — | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $76.85 | 49.51% | 54.30% | 47.37% | +6.93 | +1.32 | 17 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $76.78 | 45.47% | 48.78% | 45.84% | +2.93 | +1.84 | 25 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $76.69 | 42.44% | 47.13% | 42.15% | +4.98 | +2.19 | 20 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $76.82 | 41.77% | 47.13% | 42.61% | +4.52 | +3.10 | 23 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $76.75 | 43.13% | 45.89% | 42.09% | +3.80 | +0.86 | 16 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $76.72 | 42.45% | 44.81% | 40.11% | +4.69 | +0.01 | 29 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $76.85 | 41.49% | 42.22% | 38.84% | +3.38 | -0.96 | 40 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $77.77 | 40.79% | 43.55% | 38.83% | +4.72 | +0.40 | 42 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $77.77 | 42.62% | 43.03% | 39.97% | +3.05 | -1.12 | 33 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
9 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $76.85 | 49.51% | $76.93 | 17 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $76.78 | 45.47% | $77.00 | 25 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $76.69 | 42.44% | $77.01 | 20 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $76.82 | 41.77% | $77.26 | 23 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $76.75 | 43.13% | $77.36 | 16 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $76.72 | 42.45% | $77.45 | 29 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $76.85 | 41.49% | $78.05 | 40 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $77.77 | 40.79% | $80.09 | 42 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $77.77 | 42.62% | $82.12 | 33 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 42.98%
- 60 天
- 41.62%
- 90 天
- 41.11%
- 180 天
- 42.06%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 345 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。