股票 · 期权分析
ARM 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $181.49
- 30D ATM IV
- 74.29%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 87
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +7.81
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.942
▲ +2.07 pts 较前一交易日
概览
ARM 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 74.3%,相当于未来一个月约 ±21.3% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 87% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 7.81 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 9% 的交易日差距比这更大。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 6%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 74.29%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +7.81
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.39
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.942
对应 30 天内约 ±21.3% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.7%。
高于过去一年中 87% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 7.81 个点。
高于过去一年中 91% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.39 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 6%。
高于过去一年中 37% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 87%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 62%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 87%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 62%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $181.49
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $181.18
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 69.39%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 69.96%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 67.37%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 622,089
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.52
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 345 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 74.29% | +7.81 | 0.942 | $181.49 |
| 2026-11-09 | 72.22% | +7.34 | 0.950 | $186.30 |
| 2026-11-06 | 76.54% | +10.42 | 0.928 | $174.62 |
| 2026-11-05 | 84.32% | +11.60 | 0.867 | $166.72 |
| 2026-11-04 | 76.78% | +4.08 | 0.892 | $191.80 |
| 2026-11-03 | 79.73% | +2.24 | 0.877 | $202.49 |
| 2026-11-02 | 80.66% | +4.01 | 0.874 | $196.79 |
| 2026-10-30 | 79.19% | +5.57 | 0.866 | $205.97 |
| 2026-10-29 | 72.44% | -1.76 | 0.899 | $228.77 |
| 2026-10-28 | 73.82% | -3.56 | 0.900 | $235.90 |
| 2026-10-27 | 75.31% | -0.77 | 0.875 | $226.60 |
| 2026-10-26 | 75.34% | +0.68 | 0.880 | $223.35 |
| 2026-10-23 | 75.78% | +1.38 | 0.870 | $210.33 |
| 2026-10-22 | 78.38% | +2.51 | 0.854 | $210.10 |
| 2026-10-21 | 75.47% | +1.00 | 0.858 | $226.59 |
| 2026-10-20 | 75.77% | +0.69 | 0.856 | $221.06 |
| 2026-10-19 | 74.76% | +2.45 | 0.857 | $228.05 |
| 2026-10-16 | 77.97% | -0.07 | 0.834 | $227.80 |
| 2026-10-15 | 74.38% | +1.16 | 0.867 | $244.79 |
| 2026-10-14 | 75.49% | -1.48 | 0.853 | $238.01 |
| 2026-10-13 | 72.60% | -3.37 | 0.862 | $255.39 |
| 2026-10-09 | 72.11% | -5.52 | 0.878 | $266.28 |
| 2026-10-08 | 75.72% | -3.18 | 0.875 | $275.29 |
| 2026-10-07 | 73.25% | -2.98 | 0.904 | $294.37 |
| 2026-10-06 | 73.51% | -4.88 | 0.899 | $302.56 |
| 2026-10-05 | 72.88% | -3.67 | 0.908 | $302.90 |
| 2026-10-02 | 70.97% | -2.84 | 0.997 | $307.49 |
| 2026-10-01 | 69.51% | -2.58 | 1.017 | $292.34 |
| 2026-09-30 | 71.22% | -3.56 | 1.020 | $289.66 |
| 2026-09-29 | 69.88% | -3.43 | 1.050 | $293.67 |
| 2026-09-28 | 69.10% | -4.63 | 1.046 | $283.33 |
| 2026-09-25 | 69.13% | -4.41 | 1.061 | $310.32 |
| 2026-09-24 | 72.76% | -5.77 | 1.019 | $306.34 |
| 2026-09-23 | 73.36% | -5.04 | 1.039 | $332.56 |
| 2026-09-22 | 73.28% | -5.83 | 1.036 | $333.20 |
| 2026-09-21 | 78.57% | -6.21 | 0.988 | $322.90 |
| 2026-09-18 | 65.63% | -5.27 | 1.062 | $275.61 |
| 2026-09-17 | 67.43% | -5.19 | 1.046 | $264.90 |
| 2026-09-16 | 63.85% | -2.50 | 1.077 | $243.98 |
| 2026-09-15 | 63.79% | -1.22 | 1.055 | $241.83 |
| 2026-09-14 | 65.30% | -5.32 | 1.057 | $239.01 |
| 2026-09-11 | 64.95% | -4.08 | 1.076 | $264.79 |
| 2026-09-10 | 64.29% | -5.28 | 1.089 | $254.18 |
| 2026-09-09 | 67.47% | -9.63 | 1.060 | $264.23 |
| 2026-09-08 | 68.97% | -6.42 | 1.072 | $261.53 |
| 2026-09-04 | 61.27% | -3.17 | 1.128 | $252.09 |
| 2026-09-03 | 58.14% | -3.76 | 1.144 | $242.59 |
| 2026-09-02 | 63.11% | -1.40 | 1.051 | $234.86 |
| 2026-09-01 | 59.69% | -3.50 | 1.089 | $234.82 |
| 2026-08-31 | 59.22% | -1.47 | 1.133 | $241.91 |
| 2026-08-28 | 60.32% | -2.70 | 1.124 | $239.05 |
| 2026-08-27 | 66.00% | -2.28 | 1.080 | $255.21 |
| 2026-08-26 | 69.43% | -4.29 | 1.052 | $251.06 |
| 2026-08-25 | 64.27% | -4.23 | 1.113 | $241.56 |
| 2026-08-24 | 67.53% | -2.47 | 1.097 | $238.78 |
| 2026-08-21 | 66.52% | -3.67 | 1.119 | $243.32 |
| 2026-08-20 | 67.97% | -3.08 | 1.126 | $250.72 |
| 2026-08-19 | 69.55% | -3.02 | 1.059 | $249.34 |
| 2026-08-18 | 68.59% | -2.36 | 1.100 | $253.32 |
| 2025-10-22 | 73.65% | -0.33 | 0.818 | $165.71 |
| 2025-10-21 | 72.46% | -1.04 | 0.832 | $169.38 |
| 2025-10-20 | 70.68% | +2.23 | 0.866 | $171.50 |
| 2025-10-17 | 75.39% | -3.35 | 0.828 | $165.61 |
| 2025-10-16 | 77.38% | -3.46 | 0.833 | $171.19 |
| 2025-10-15 | 77.41% | -4.69 | 0.841 | $170.67 |
| 2025-10-14 | 77.29% | +0.11 | 0.821 | $168.16 |
| 2025-10-10 | 71.64% | -3.05 | 0.903 | $154.81 |
| 2025-10-09 | 84.47% | -12.30 | 0.802 | $170.66 |
| 2025-10-08 | 86.28% | -12.91 | 0.794 | $166.77 |
| 2025-10-07 | 67.05% | -6.12 | 0.881 | $159.35 |
| 2025-10-06 | 65.31% | -6.86 | 0.873 | $156.22 |
| 2025-10-03 | 51.02% | -1.25 | 1.050 | $152.64 |
| 2025-10-02 | 51.11% | -0.77 | 1.062 | $152.15 |
| 2025-10-01 | 49.98% | -0.99 | 1.086 | $150.38 |
| 2025-09-30 | 47.85% | -1.02 | 1.092 | $141.49 |
| 2025-09-29 | 47.38% | +0.16 | 1.097 | $139.80 |
| 2025-09-26 | 46.21% | +1.62 | 1.106 | $139.62 |
| 2025-09-25 | 47.85% | -1.16 | 1.097 | $140.65 |
| 2025-09-24 | 49.42% | -0.36 | 1.071 | $144.30 |
| 2025-09-23 | 47.90% | -0.04 | 1.091 | $140.99 |
| 2025-09-22 | 50.28% | -1.17 | 1.048 | $144.48 |
| 2025-09-19 | 46.04% | -2.19 | 1.116 | $142.91 |
| 2025-09-18 | 48.47% | +0.20 | 1.083 | $146.54 |
| 2025-09-17 | 46.24% | +1.70 | 1.105 | $153.37 |
| 2025-09-16 | 47.14% | -0.44 | 1.105 | $153.85 |
| 2025-09-15 | 47.40% | -0.55 | 1.105 | $153.86 |
| 2025-09-12 | 45.30% | +0.27 | 1.115 | $150.64 |
| 2025-09-11 | 46.52% | -0.66 | 1.087 | $154.70 |
| 2025-09-10 | 46.03% | +1.60 | 1.128 | $154.14 |
| 2025-09-09 | 44.30% | +0.49 | 1.084 | $140.80 |
| 2025-09-08 | 42.28% | +2.25 | 1.131 | $139.14 |
| 2025-09-05 | 42.03% | +3.33 | 1.143 | $138.17 |
| 2025-09-04 | 42.30% | +1.17 | 1.133 | $135.48 |
| 2025-09-03 | 43.08% | +2.20 | 1.124 | $131.42 |
| 2025-09-02 | 45.14% | +3.32 | 1.095 | $132.34 |
| 2025-08-29 | 42.89% | +2.18 | 1.126 | $138.31 |
| 2025-08-28 | 40.52% | +2.27 | 1.168 | $142.55 |
| 2025-08-27 | 43.55% | +3.61 | 1.109 | $140.66 |
| 2025-08-26 | 43.73% | +3.15 | 1.102 | $140.26 |
| 2025-08-25 | 43.45% | +2.93 | 1.107 | $137.78 |
| 2025-08-22 | 43.13% | +1.42 | 1.108 | $137.92 |
| 2025-08-21 | 45.06% | +0.86 | 1.080 | $133.28 |
| 2025-08-20 | 44.13% | +2.31 | 1.098 | $131.16 |
| 2025-08-19 | 44.63% | +3.95 | 1.076 | $134.01 |
| 2025-08-18 | 42.38% | +2.90 | 1.104 | $141.06 |
| 2025-08-15 | 42.46% | +2.65 | 1.102 | $138.91 |
| 2025-08-14 | 42.98% | +1.45 | 1.095 | $140.55 |
| 2025-08-13 | 42.29% | -0.67 | 1.094 | $141.60 |
| 2025-08-12 | 42.08% | +1.41 | 1.085 | $142.39 |
| 2025-08-11 | 44.49% | +1.03 | 1.054 | $141.05 |
| 2025-08-08 | 43.05% | +1.02 | 1.072 | $138.50 |
| 2025-08-07 | 43.08% | +2.88 | 1.058 | $135.57 |
| 2025-08-06 | 43.23% | +3.08 | 1.071 | $136.12 |
| 2025-08-05 | 44.23% | +0.50 | 1.066 | $137.23 |
| 2025-08-04 | 45.85% | +0.68 | 1.022 | $140.05 |
| 2025-08-01 | 46.76% | +2.57 | 1.025 | $137.58 |
| 2025-07-31 | 48.03% | -0.68 | 0.986 | $141.38 |
| 2025-07-30 | 58.06% | -2.40 | 0.916 | $163.33 |
| 2025-07-29 | 62.65% | -0.68 | 0.853 | $163.47 |
| 2025-07-28 | 60.56% | -1.76 | 0.874 | $164.37 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 345 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 345 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 91.29% | 81.49% | 72.62% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 90.08% | 80.24% | 72.20% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 90.01% | 79.62% | 72.01% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 89.51% | 79.81% | 72.89% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 89.75% | 80.05% | 73.12% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 90.18% | 80.41% | 73.46% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 90.93% | 80.77% | 73.77% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 91.98% | 81.07% | 74.14% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 92.31% | 81.27% | 74.71% |
| ATM | 92.49% | 83.11% | 75.26% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 92.80% | 82.84% | 75.41% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 93.40% | 83.48% | 75.82% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 93.54% | 85.07% | 76.44% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 95.85% | 85.70% | 77.84% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 96.53% | 86.70% | 78.94% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 98.34% | 89.01% | 80.55% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 100.20% | 91.11% | 82.17% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 103.18% | 93.71% | 85.64% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 108.61% | 98.79% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $180.53 | 92.49% | 96.53% | 89.75% | +6.78 | +0.65 | 28 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $180.70 | 83.11% | 86.70% | 80.05% | +6.65 | +0.26 | 58 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $180.88 | 75.26% | 78.94% | 73.12% | +5.82 | +0.77 | 32 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $181.20 | 74.43% | 78.48% | 71.49% | +6.99 | +0.56 | 26 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $181.18 | 74.27% | 78.60% | 70.69% | +7.92 | +0.37 | 27 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $181.28 | 72.46% | 77.07% | 69.84% | +7.23 | +0.99 | 29 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $181.78 | 71.41% | 76.82% | 68.57% | +8.25 | +1.29 | 28 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $182.44 | 68.88% | 73.95% | 66.14% | +7.81 | +1.17 | 38 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $182.90 | 70.28% | 74.18% | 67.40% | +6.79 | +0.51 | 40 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $183.88 | 68.28% | 73.11% | 66.79% | +6.32 | +1.67 | 52 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $184.13 | 67.47% | 71.82% | 66.18% | +5.64 | +1.53 | 52 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $185.95 | 67.25% | 71.03% | 66.19% | +4.84 | +1.36 | 66 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $187.64 | 67.62% | 70.12% | 66.34% | +3.78 | +0.61 | 49 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $180.53 | 92.49% | $181.16 | 28 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $180.70 | 83.11% | $182.42 | 58 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $180.88 | 75.26% | $183.28 | 32 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $181.20 | 74.43% | $184.53 | 26 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $181.18 | 74.27% | $185.47 | 27 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $181.28 | 72.46% | $186.30 | 29 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $181.78 | 71.41% | $187.46 | 28 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $182.44 | 68.88% | $190.44 | 38 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $182.90 | 70.28% | $195.84 | 40 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $183.88 | 68.28% | $199.67 | 52 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $184.13 | 67.47% | $203.07 | 52 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $185.95 | 67.25% | $212.97 | 66 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $187.64 | 67.62% | $227.99 | 49 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 74.29%
- 60 天
- 69.39%
- 90 天
- 69.96%
- 180 天
- 67.37%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 345 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 1 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 1 次中 0 次
- 0% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 12.3%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 13.1%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 收盘后 | 12.3% | -13.1% | 1.06× |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。