股票 · 期权分析
BA 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $173.38
- 30D ATM IV
- 33.06%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 55
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +1.65
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.045
▲ +0.82 pts 较前一交易日
概览
BA 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 33.1%,相当于未来一个月约 ±9.5% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 55% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 1.65 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-27(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 8 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±5.4% 的波动,BA 实际平均波动 9.7%,8 次中有 5 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 33.06%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +1.65
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.02
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.045
对应 30 天内约 ±9.5% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.1%。
高于过去一年中 55% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 1.65 个点。
高于过去一年中 45% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率与平值大致相同。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 5%。
高于过去一年中 52% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 55%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 15%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 44%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 15%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $173.38
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $174.47
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 32.56%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 34.55%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 35.08%
- 使用的到期日数
- 14
- 总未平仓量
- 764,366
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.97
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 345 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 33.06% | +1.65 | 1.045 | $173.38 |
| 2026-11-09 | 32.23% | +1.72 | 1.049 | $172.38 |
| 2026-11-06 | 32.73% | +3.79 | 1.067 | $173.40 |
| 2026-11-05 | 34.09% | +4.24 | 1.017 | $172.50 |
| 2026-11-04 | 30.09% | +1.01 | 1.086 | $177.00 |
| 2026-11-03 | 31.45% | +1.21 | 1.054 | $173.31 |
| 2026-11-02 | 31.81% | +2.17 | 1.051 | $175.40 |
| 2026-10-30 | 31.39% | +2.21 | 1.063 | $171.55 |
| 2026-10-29 | 29.82% | +0.50 | 1.067 | $172.65 |
| 2026-10-28 | 30.01% | +0.59 | 1.073 | $167.14 |
| 2026-10-27 | 30.68% | +0.05 | 1.022 | $168.18 |
| 2026-10-26 | 37.53% | -0.17 | 0.918 | $188.31 |
| 2026-10-23 | 38.09% | +0.30 | 0.921 | $188.35 |
| 2026-10-22 | 38.12% | -0.43 | 0.892 | $187.55 |
| 2026-10-21 | 36.25% | +0.32 | 0.941 | $192.28 |
| 2026-10-20 | 37.31% | -0.13 | 0.872 | $190.47 |
| 2026-10-19 | 36.42% | +1.08 | 0.907 | $191.42 |
| 2026-10-16 | 36.83% | +0.88 | 0.906 | $190.21 |
| 2026-10-15 | 36.81% | +0.25 | 0.918 | $188.73 |
| 2026-10-14 | 37.01% | -0.02 | 0.901 | $184.66 |
| 2026-10-13 | 36.23% | -0.62 | 0.917 | $186.49 |
| 2026-10-09 | 36.23% | -0.16 | 0.926 | $190.37 |
| 2026-10-08 | 36.81% | -1.19 | 0.930 | $187.75 |
| 2026-10-07 | 37.35% | -0.95 | 0.913 | $188.32 |
| 2026-10-06 | 36.83% | -1.82 | 0.930 | $189.82 |
| 2026-10-05 | 36.79% | -0.24 | 0.938 | $192.72 |
| 2026-10-02 | 38.54% | -1.65 | 0.912 | $193.56 |
| 2026-10-01 | 39.26% | -0.13 | 0.898 | $192.28 |
| 2026-09-30 | 38.46% | -0.80 | 0.920 | $186.05 |
| 2026-09-29 | 36.98% | -0.42 | 0.937 | $187.68 |
| 2026-09-28 | 35.09% | +1.03 | 0.995 | $184.39 |
| 2026-09-25 | 31.52% | -0.35 | 1.060 | $198.07 |
| 2026-09-24 | 31.65% | -0.74 | 1.061 | $196.80 |
| 2026-09-23 | 30.89% | +0.08 | 1.088 | $199.93 |
| 2026-09-22 | 30.09% | +0.53 | 1.112 | $197.72 |
| 2026-09-21 | 30.30% | +0.14 | 1.103 | $201.15 |
| 2026-09-18 | 29.55% | +0.29 | 1.140 | $198.20 |
| 2026-09-17 | 31.12% | -0.10 | 1.091 | $197.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | 32.43% | +0.45 | 1.078 | $201.96 |
| 2026-09-15 | 31.26% | +0.42 | 1.088 | $209.69 |
| 2026-09-14 | 30.28% | +0.74 | 1.098 | $210.27 |
| 2026-09-11 | 29.56% | +0.72 | 1.145 | $210.45 |
| 2026-09-10 | 31.21% | +0.09 | 1.081 | $204.80 |
| 2026-09-09 | 30.59% | -1.17 | 1.076 | $206.42 |
| 2026-09-08 | 30.27% | -1.03 | 1.097 | $210.73 |
| 2026-09-04 | 29.24% | -0.00 | 1.121 | $212.25 |
| 2026-09-03 | 28.16% | +0.63 | 1.142 | $210.51 |
| 2026-09-02 | 28.97% | +0.34 | 1.079 | $208.87 |
| 2026-09-01 | 28.43% | +0.05 | 1.136 | $205.66 |
| 2026-08-31 | 28.35% | -0.07 | 1.143 | $207.78 |
| 2026-08-28 | 27.89% | +0.31 | 1.152 | $209.82 |
| 2026-08-27 | 28.00% | -0.35 | 1.154 | $209.89 |
| 2026-08-26 | 29.28% | -0.12 | 1.116 | $212.09 |
| 2026-08-25 | 28.91% | -0.40 | 1.129 | $211.08 |
| 2026-08-24 | 29.77% | -0.34 | 1.124 | $210.46 |
| 2026-08-21 | 29.67% | +1.39 | 1.075 | $214.20 |
| 2026-08-20 | 30.26% | +1.27 | 1.057 | $215.10 |
| 2026-08-19 | 28.26% | +1.51 | 1.121 | $222.20 |
| 2026-08-18 | 28.98% | +0.05 | 1.070 | $223.06 |
| 2025-10-22 | 36.83% | +0.87 | 0.887 | $216.59 |
| 2025-10-21 | 36.96% | +1.71 | 0.903 | $217.26 |
| 2025-10-20 | 36.67% | +2.35 | 0.897 | $216.82 |
| 2025-10-17 | 40.72% | +2.07 | 0.864 | $212.94 |
| 2025-10-16 | 42.02% | +1.89 | 0.831 | $211.89 |
| 2025-10-15 | 39.09% | +2.33 | 0.902 | $214.00 |
| 2025-10-14 | 42.72% | -2.18 | 0.804 | $214.30 |
| 2025-10-10 | 42.26% | +0.26 | 0.866 | $210.73 |
| 2025-10-09 | 39.55% | +0.97 | 0.876 | $216.00 |
| 2025-10-08 | 38.04% | +1.52 | 0.876 | $225.32 |
| 2025-10-07 | 38.86% | +0.03 | 0.860 | $221.82 |
| 2025-10-06 | 38.53% | +1.27 | 0.884 | $219.73 |
| 2025-10-03 | 36.64% | +0.60 | 0.907 | $216.30 |
| 2025-10-02 | 37.08% | +0.68 | 0.958 | $217.43 |
| 2025-10-01 | 36.90% | -0.35 | 0.913 | $215.20 |
| 2025-09-30 | 37.79% | -1.82 | 0.904 | $215.83 |
| 2025-09-29 | 37.29% | -1.00 | 0.921 | $217.08 |
| 2025-09-26 | 34.91% | -0.25 | 0.982 | $221.26 |
| 2025-09-25 | 36.80% | -0.50 | 0.961 | $213.53 |
| 2025-09-24 | 36.35% | -3.39 | 0.971 | $215.10 |
| 2025-09-23 | 36.78% | -1.18 | 0.950 | $216.34 |
| 2025-09-22 | 33.45% | -1.30 | 0.991 | $212.09 |
| 2025-09-19 | 31.89% | -0.20 | 1.007 | $215.65 |
| 2025-09-18 | 31.04% | +0.66 | 1.070 | $215.66 |
| 2025-09-17 | 29.81% | -0.05 | 1.072 | $214.63 |
| 2025-09-16 | 29.80% | +0.01 | 1.068 | $215.02 |
| 2025-09-15 | 29.76% | +0.80 | 1.065 | $215.75 |
| 2025-09-12 | 29.19% | +1.44 | 1.108 | $215.94 |
| 2025-09-11 | 29.70% | +1.38 | 1.068 | $219.99 |
| 2025-09-10 | 29.83% | +2.34 | 1.057 | $227.52 |
| 2025-09-09 | 30.63% | +1.52 | 1.030 | $229.52 |
| 2025-09-08 | 29.56% | +1.70 | 1.058 | $230.95 |
| 2025-09-05 | 30.30% | +2.71 | 1.023 | $229.61 |
| 2025-09-04 | 27.94% | +2.96 | 1.113 | $230.75 |
| 2025-09-03 | 28.89% | +1.92 | 1.088 | $232.38 |
| 2025-09-02 | 29.51% | +1.64 | 1.052 | $237.38 |
| 2025-08-29 | 27.61% | +2.42 | 1.102 | $234.68 |
| 2025-08-28 | 27.10% | +1.57 | 1.108 | $236.16 |
| 2025-08-27 | 28.62% | +3.41 | 1.074 | $235.62 |
| 2025-08-26 | 29.40% | +2.86 | 1.055 | $234.83 |
| 2025-08-25 | 28.68% | -0.29 | 1.065 | $226.87 |
| 2025-08-22 | 27.28% | +1.55 | 1.095 | $230.12 |
| 2025-08-21 | 29.16% | +1.94 | 1.073 | $224.46 |
| 2025-08-20 | 28.48% | +2.67 | 1.084 | $225.62 |
| 2025-08-19 | 28.11% | +1.71 | 1.072 | $225.00 |
| 2025-08-18 | 27.47% | +2.31 | 1.078 | $232.41 |
| 2025-08-15 | 26.60% | +1.91 | 1.103 | $235.26 |
| 2025-08-14 | 27.82% | +1.30 | 1.063 | $233.19 |
| 2025-08-13 | 26.10% | +1.22 | 1.127 | $233.37 |
| 2025-08-12 | 27.27% | +1.00 | 1.070 | $232.61 |
| 2025-08-11 | 27.14% | +2.00 | 1.052 | $225.96 |
| 2025-08-08 | 26.41% | +1.34 | 1.056 | $229.12 |
| 2025-08-07 | 26.99% | +2.38 | 1.091 | $227.33 |
| 2025-08-06 | 25.85% | +4.66 | 1.123 | $225.04 |
| 2025-08-05 | 26.91% | +0.06 | 1.112 | $224.86 |
| 2025-08-04 | 26.78% | +2.12 | 1.109 | $222.34 |
| 2025-08-01 | 29.17% | +2.23 | 1.051 | $221.90 |
| 2025-07-31 | 27.67% | +0.56 | 1.057 | $221.84 |
| 2025-07-30 | 27.60% | -0.00 | 1.046 | $225.84 |
| 2025-07-29 | 27.77% | +0.28 | 1.034 | $226.08 |
| 2025-07-28 | 31.18% | +1.36 | 0.942 | $236.41 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 345 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 345 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 39.14% | 37.21% | 34.43% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 37.96% | 34.98% | 31.75% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 37.55% | 34.11% | 31.54% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 37.18% | 33.80% | 31.19% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 36.88% | 33.80% | 31.03% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 36.70% | 33.83% | 31.06% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 36.57% | 34.04% | 31.21% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 36.48% | 34.01% | 31.55% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 36.49% | 33.60% | 31.63% |
| ATM | 36.75% | 33.60% | 31.71% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 37.15% | 33.98% | 32.05% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 37.47% | 34.12% | 32.36% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 37.60% | 34.15% | 32.58% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 37.70% | 34.27% | 32.67% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 37.84% | 34.63% | 32.85% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 38.15% | 35.15% | 33.31% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 38.70% | 36.21% | 34.04% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 39.93% | 37.68% | 36.34% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 43.85% | 39.80% | 39.23% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $173.92 | 36.75% | 37.84% | 36.88% | +0.96 | +0.61 | 13 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $174.10 | 33.60% | 34.63% | 33.80% | +0.83 | +0.61 | 29 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $174.37 | 31.71% | 32.85% | 31.03% | +1.83 | +0.23 | 21 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $174.47 | 32.58% | 33.66% | 31.68% | +1.98 | +0.09 | 11 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $174.47 | 33.12% | 33.94% | 32.33% | +1.61 | +0.02 | 11 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $174.77 | 32.54% | 34.42% | 31.65% | +2.77 | +0.49 | 23 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $174.55 | 32.97% | 34.08% | 32.08% | +2.00 | +0.11 | 12 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $175.58 | 32.46% | 34.76% | 31.26% | +3.50 | +0.55 | 22 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $176.14 | 35.15% | 36.69% | 33.68% | +3.01 | +0.03 | 24 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $176.85 | 34.86% | 36.83% | 33.78% | +3.04 | +0.44 | 28 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $177.65 | 34.27% | 37.00% | 33.39% | +3.61 | +0.92 | 29 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $178.41 | 35.42% | 37.51% | 33.61% | +3.90 | +0.14 | 33 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $178.69 | 35.43% | 37.50% | 34.16% | +3.34 | +0.40 | 40 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $180.68 | 36.20% | 37.62% | 34.54% | +3.08 | -0.12 | 45 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
14 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $173.92 | 36.75% | $174.02 | 13 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $174.10 | 33.60% | $174.37 | 29 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $174.37 | 31.71% | $174.78 | 21 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $174.47 | 32.58% | $175.08 | 11 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $174.47 | 33.12% | $175.29 | 11 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $174.77 | 32.54% | $175.74 | 23 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $174.55 | 32.97% | $175.69 | 12 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $175.58 | 32.46% | $177.26 | 22 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $176.14 | 35.15% | $179.18 | 24 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $176.85 | 34.86% | $180.69 | 28 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $177.65 | 34.27% | $182.19 | 29 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $178.41 | 35.42% | $184.40 | 33 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $178.69 | 35.43% | $185.55 | 40 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $180.68 | 36.20% | $191.05 | 45 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 33.06%
- 60 天
- 32.56%
- 90 天
- 34.55%
- 180 天
- 35.08%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 345 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 8 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 8 次中 5 次
- 63% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 5.4%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 9.7%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 未说明时间 | 2.7% | -2.5% | 0.93× |
| 2026-10-28 | 未说明时间 | 2.9% | +3.3% | 1.14× |
| 2026-10-27 | 开盘前 | 6.7% | -10.7% | 1.59× |
| 2026-07-28 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-22 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-27 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-29 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-29 | 开盘前 | 5.9% | -4.4% | 0.74× |
| 2025-04-23 | 开盘前 | 7.4% | +6.1% | 0.82× |
| 2025-01-28 | 开盘前 | 5.8% | +1.5% | 0.26× |
| 2024-10-23 | 开盘前 | 6.9% | -1.8% | 0.26× |
| 2024-10-11 | 收盘后 | 5.0% | +47.7% | 9.50× |
| 2024-07-31 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-24 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-31 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-25 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。