股票 · 期权分析
BX 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $122.53
- 30D ATM IV
- 37.03%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 65
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +4.09
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.008
▲ +0.51 pts 较前一交易日
概览
BX 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 37.0%,相当于未来一个月约 ±10.6% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 244 个交易日中 65% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 4.09 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-21(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±5.3% 的波动,BX 实际平均波动 3.1%,5 次中有 4 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 37.03%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +4.09
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.77
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.008
对应 30 天内约 ±10.6% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.3%。
高于过去一年中 65% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 4.09 个点。
高于过去一年中 43% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.77 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
高于过去一年中 55% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 244 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 65%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 24%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 74%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 27%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $122.53
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $122.62
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 36.15%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 37.31%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 37.28%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 297,000
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.93
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 343 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 37.03% | +4.09 | 1.008 | $122.53 |
| 2026-11-09 | 36.52% | +6.94 | 1.010 | $124.05 |
| 2026-11-06 | 38.85% | +5.07 | 0.972 | $119.50 |
| 2026-11-05 | 42.01% | +5.77 | 0.942 | $119.82 |
| 2026-11-04 | 36.18% | +5.03 | 1.014 | $125.57 |
| 2026-11-03 | 39.06% | +2.59 | 0.976 | $118.19 |
| 2026-11-02 | 39.66% | +2.78 | 0.961 | $120.14 |
| 2026-10-30 | 38.47% | +3.11 | 0.997 | $118.51 |
| 2026-10-29 | 35.45% | +3.36 | 1.032 | $120.60 |
| 2026-10-28 | 37.47% | +4.48 | 0.973 | $117.06 |
| 2026-10-27 | 36.49% | +0.68 | 1.008 | $116.70 |
| 2026-10-26 | 37.70% | +3.60 | 1.004 | $119.06 |
| 2026-10-23 | 39.03% | +2.73 | 0.960 | $117.97 |
| 2026-10-22 | 39.75% | +5.64 | 0.947 | $118.75 |
| 2026-10-21 | 40.71% | +4.36 | 0.932 | $109.57 |
| 2026-10-20 | 41.76% | +7.39 | 0.919 | $110.34 |
| 2026-10-19 | 42.75% | +6.24 | 0.907 | $107.09 |
| 2026-10-16 | 44.33% | +5.26 | 0.895 | $106.61 |
| 2026-10-15 | 42.40% | +2.53 | 0.914 | $109.20 |
| 2026-10-14 | 45.63% | +5.79 | 0.868 | $106.21 |
| 2026-10-13 | 41.32% | +3.91 | 0.909 | $109.98 |
| 2026-10-09 | 41.78% | +3.85 | 0.904 | $114.29 |
| 2026-10-08 | 41.17% | +3.17 | 0.924 | $112.68 |
| 2026-10-07 | 39.75% | +0.95 | 0.970 | $111.83 |
| 2026-10-06 | 41.21% | +4.01 | 0.926 | $113.36 |
| 2026-10-05 | 42.23% | +3.81 | 0.899 | $111.65 |
| 2026-10-02 | 43.23% | +2.44 | 0.871 | $111.75 |
| 2026-10-01 | 43.14% | +3.66 | 0.897 | $112.24 |
| 2026-09-30 | 40.76% | +2.90 | 0.936 | $112.09 |
| 2026-09-29 | 41.13% | +4.07 | 0.940 | $114.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | 41.42% | +3.20 | 0.943 | $114.56 |
| 2026-09-25 | 39.74% | +2.63 | 0.952 | $118.42 |
| 2026-09-24 | 40.01% | +2.63 | 0.957 | $117.21 |
| 2026-09-23 | 37.58% | +2.50 | 0.993 | $119.27 |
| 2026-09-22 | 37.44% | +2.51 | 0.994 | $124.01 |
| 2026-09-21 | 37.08% | +2.65 | 1.000 | $126.41 |
| 2026-09-18 | 36.56% | +2.42 | 1.032 | $124.96 |
| 2026-09-17 | 36.89% | +2.26 | 1.049 | $125.41 |
| 2026-09-16 | 38.04% | +3.07 | 1.028 | $123.45 |
| 2026-09-15 | 37.29% | +1.77 | 1.042 | $126.70 |
| 2026-09-14 | 37.31% | +2.59 | 1.046 | $128.29 |
| 2026-09-11 | 36.49% | +2.41 | 1.067 | $128.51 |
| 2026-09-10 | 37.89% | +1.74 | 1.049 | $125.41 |
| 2026-09-09 | 36.79% | +0.93 | 1.052 | $129.07 |
| 2026-09-08 | 36.78% | +1.49 | 1.038 | $133.97 |
| 2026-09-04 | 34.17% | +1.23 | 1.080 | $136.15 |
| 2026-09-03 | 34.66% | +2.23 | 1.062 | $137.68 |
| 2026-09-02 | 36.04% | +1.94 | 1.035 | $136.82 |
| 2026-09-01 | 36.10% | +2.03 | 1.029 | $136.66 |
| 2026-08-31 | 34.72% | +1.29 | 1.052 | $143.24 |
| 2026-08-28 | 33.81% | +1.11 | 1.073 | $142.39 |
| 2026-08-27 | 34.00% | +0.89 | 1.065 | $143.64 |
| 2026-08-26 | 34.79% | +1.14 | 1.055 | $143.20 |
| 2026-08-25 | 35.05% | +1.85 | 1.041 | $143.41 |
| 2026-08-24 | 35.24% | +1.53 | 1.037 | $143.64 |
| 2026-08-21 | 35.94% | +1.46 | 1.036 | $143.38 |
| 2026-08-20 | 35.97% | +0.80 | 1.026 | $141.35 |
| 2026-08-19 | 34.70% | +1.54 | 1.046 | $145.09 |
| 2025-10-22 | 38.44% | +5.99 | 0.867 | $161.72 |
| 2025-10-21 | 34.59% | +7.37 | 0.930 | $161.43 |
| 2025-10-20 | 38.19% | +10.15 | 0.891 | $160.44 |
| 2025-10-17 | 41.33% | +9.38 | 0.897 | $156.31 |
| 2025-10-16 | 44.21% | +10.75 | 0.857 | $157.97 |
| 2025-10-15 | 38.46% | +4.75 | 0.856 | $163.91 |
| 2025-10-14 | 39.62% | +5.12 | 0.873 | $163.98 |
| 2025-10-10 | 41.01% | +5.32 | 0.877 | $153.77 |
| 2025-10-09 | 37.00% | +4.59 | 0.890 | $160.65 |
| 2025-10-08 | 37.44% | +3.52 | 0.889 | $162.46 |
| 2025-10-07 | 36.77% | +5.09 | 0.901 | $164.91 |
| 2025-10-06 | 36.20% | +4.43 | 0.908 | $166.89 |
| 2025-10-03 | 35.20% | +5.04 | 0.940 | $168.45 |
| 2025-10-02 | 36.01% | +4.56 | 0.918 | $166.58 |
| 2025-10-01 | 38.36% | +1.12 | 0.859 | $168.10 |
| 2025-09-30 | 34.46% | +4.07 | 0.945 | $170.85 |
| 2025-09-29 | 34.50% | +5.19 | 0.915 | $176.14 |
| 2025-09-26 | 33.36% | +4.81 | 0.949 | $175.32 |
| 2025-09-25 | 33.92% | +4.79 | 0.958 | $175.60 |
| 2025-09-24 | 34.53% | +7.08 | 0.934 | $178.08 |
| 2025-09-23 | 31.84% | +3.10 | 0.993 | $184.91 |
| 2025-09-22 | 31.25% | +2.03 | 0.979 | $185.64 |
| 2025-09-19 | 29.38% | +2.65 | 1.024 | $187.62 |
| 2025-09-18 | 30.83% | +2.67 | 0.966 | $188.68 |
| 2025-09-17 | — | — | — | $183.62 |
| 2025-09-16 | 31.33% | +5.09 | 0.984 | $183.72 |
| 2025-09-15 | 31.12% | +3.48 | 0.996 | $183.80 |
| 2025-09-12 | 27.85% | +3.23 | 1.064 | $181.35 |
| 2025-09-11 | 29.29% | +3.08 | 1.022 | $183.92 |
| 2025-09-10 | 25.16% | +6.29 | 1.166 | $178.23 |
| 2025-09-09 | 29.06% | +4.83 | 1.028 | $173.17 |
| 2025-09-08 | 27.35% | +4.21 | 1.060 | $173.30 |
| 2025-09-05 | 27.05% | +4.21 | 1.089 | $169.99 |
| 2025-09-04 | 28.07% | +4.93 | 1.075 | $169.90 |
| 2025-09-03 | 28.63% | +3.44 | 1.057 | $167.34 |
| 2025-09-02 | 28.37% | +4.95 | 1.048 | $169.55 |
| 2025-08-29 | 27.33% | +4.51 | 1.094 | $171.40 |
| 2025-08-28 | 26.09% | +3.19 | 1.129 | $172.02 |
| 2025-08-27 | 27.88% | +4.03 | 1.065 | $171.64 |
| 2025-08-26 | 27.29% | +3.98 | 1.096 | $171.43 |
| 2025-08-25 | 28.55% | +4.21 | 1.056 | $169.50 |
| 2025-08-22 | 27.50% | +3.31 | 1.096 | $170.50 |
| 2025-08-21 | 30.71% | +3.25 | 1.007 | $163.44 |
| 2025-08-20 | 27.96% | +1.61 | 1.113 | $164.47 |
| 2025-08-19 | 29.65% | +4.17 | 1.025 | $167.29 |
| 2025-08-18 | 27.77% | +3.97 | 1.078 | $169.22 |
| 2025-08-15 | 26.22% | +4.85 | 1.115 | $171.62 |
| 2025-08-14 | 25.41% | +4.30 | 1.149 | $174.68 |
| 2025-08-13 | 26.91% | +4.50 | 1.067 | $176.62 |
| 2025-08-12 | 26.65% | +3.62 | 1.105 | $173.74 |
| 2025-08-11 | 28.65% | +4.62 | 1.052 | $170.07 |
| 2025-08-08 | 28.17% | +5.60 | 1.052 | $168.91 |
| 2025-08-07 | 29.09% | +4.89 | 1.045 | $167.64 |
| 2025-08-06 | 28.73% | +5.99 | 1.036 | $169.35 |
| 2025-08-05 | 27.79% | +5.80 | 1.083 | $167.68 |
| 2025-08-04 | 27.21% | +4.37 | 1.106 | $170.50 |
| 2025-08-01 | 30.48% | +3.37 | 1.014 | $170.40 |
| 2025-07-31 | 28.69% | +4.52 | 1.034 | $172.96 |
| 2025-07-30 | 27.45% | +4.67 | 1.066 | $175.34 |
| 2025-07-29 | 26.44% | +2.56 | 1.071 | $177.04 |
| 2025-07-28 | 26.55% | +3.86 | 1.053 | $176.94 |
| 2025-07-25 | 25.79% | +1.59 | 1.093 | $178.10 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 343 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 343 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 41.45% | — | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 41.60% | 37.34% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 41.07% | 37.23% | 33.84% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 41.49% | 37.17% | 34.08% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 41.56% | 37.29% | 35.00% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 41.42% | 37.43% | 35.14% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 40.81% | 38.62% | 35.94% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 42.00% | 39.16% | 36.18% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 43.27% | 39.78% | 37.04% |
| ATM | 43.33% | 39.96% | 36.24% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 43.81% | 40.32% | 37.24% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 45.80% | 40.46% | 38.00% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 47.25% | 41.59% | 38.77% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 47.32% | 42.14% | 39.26% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 46.98% | 42.54% | 39.30% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 48.73% | 43.33% | 39.79% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 49.22% | 44.37% | 41.33% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 51.30% | 45.91% | 43.55% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 51.78% | 50.87% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $122.23 | 43.33% | 46.98% | 41.56% | +5.42 | +0.94 | 17 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $122.31 | 39.96% | 42.54% | 37.29% | +5.25 | -0.05 | 24 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $122.50 | 36.24% | 39.30% | 35.00% | +4.30 | +0.90 | 24 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $122.45 | 36.71% | 38.31% | 34.86% | +3.46 | -0.12 | 26 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $122.65 | 37.07% | 40.04% | 35.87% | +4.17 | +0.88 | 26 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $122.61 | 36.42% | 39.81% | 34.76% | +5.05 | +0.87 | 10 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $122.85 | 36.85% | 39.60% | 34.84% | +4.76 | +0.38 | 24 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $123.04 | 35.98% | 39.28% | 34.01% | +5.27 | +0.67 | 14 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $122.77 | 37.71% | 40.72% | 34.78% | +5.95 | +0.04 | 14 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $122.82 | 37.38% | 40.21% | 35.50% | +4.71 | +0.47 | 19 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $122.95 | 37.23% | 40.43% | 35.26% | +5.17 | +0.61 | 24 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $123.34 | 37.43% | 40.33% | 35.58% | +4.75 | +0.52 | 30 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $122.23 | 43.33% | $122.32 | 17 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $122.31 | 39.96% | $122.57 | 24 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $122.50 | 36.24% | $122.88 | 24 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $122.45 | 36.71% | $122.99 | 26 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $122.65 | 37.07% | $123.37 | 26 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $122.61 | 36.42% | $123.46 | 10 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $122.85 | 36.85% | $123.86 | 24 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $123.04 | 35.98% | $124.48 | 14 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $122.77 | 37.71% | $125.21 | 14 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $122.82 | 37.38% | $125.89 | 19 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $122.95 | 37.23% | $128.17 | 24 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $123.34 | 37.43% | $130.92 | 30 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 37.03%
- 60 天
- 36.15%
- 90 天
- 37.31%
- 180 天
- 37.28%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 343 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 4 次
- 80% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 5.3%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 3.1%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 开盘前 | 3.4% | -0.7% | 0.19× |
| 2026-07-23 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-23 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-29 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-23 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-24 | 开盘前 | 4.2% | +3.6% | 0.85× |
| 2025-04-17 | 开盘前 | 8.9% | +0.8% | 0.09× |
| 2025-01-30 | 开盘前 | 5.1% | -4.1% | 0.80× |
| 2024-10-17 | 开盘前 | 4.8% | +6.3% | 1.30× |
| 2024-07-18 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-18 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-25 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-19 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。