股票 · 期权分析
C 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $122.27
- 30D ATM IV
- 29.14%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 58
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +4.84
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.014
▲ +0.49 pts 较前一交易日
概览
C 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 29.1%,相当于未来一个月约 ±8.4% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 58% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 4.84 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-12(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±3.1% 的波动,C 实际平均波动 16.6%,6 次中有 4 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 29.14%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +4.84
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.47
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.014
对应 30 天内约 ±8.4% 的波动，平常一天约 ±1.8%。
高于过去一年中 58% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 4.84 个点。
高于过去一年中 77% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.47 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 1%。
高于过去一年中 49% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 58%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 20%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 60%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 21%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $122.27
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $122.52
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 30.04%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 29.53%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 29.57%
- 使用的到期日数
- 15
- 总未平仓量
- 656,494
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.28
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 348 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 29.14% | +4.84 | 1.014 | $122.27 |
| 2026-11-09 | 28.64% | +6.02 | 1.028 | $121.97 |
| 2026-11-06 | 31.20% | +5.55 | 0.980 | $119.05 |
| 2026-11-05 | 32.60% | +5.05 | 0.962 | $118.45 |
| 2026-11-04 | 26.82% | +4.92 | 1.070 | $124.74 |
| 2026-11-03 | 30.53% | +3.61 | 0.982 | $122.71 |
| 2026-11-02 | 31.43% | +2.87 | 0.944 | $123.10 |
| 2026-10-30 | 29.87% | +4.22 | 0.983 | $122.64 |
| 2026-10-29 | 27.09% | +2.53 | 1.030 | $125.76 |
| 2026-10-28 | 26.48% | +2.36 | 1.066 | $124.11 |
| 2026-10-27 | 27.50% | +3.38 | 1.039 | $122.69 |
| 2026-10-26 | 28.86% | +2.85 | 1.008 | $121.04 |
| 2026-10-23 | 28.56% | +2.54 | 1.003 | $120.62 |
| 2026-10-22 | 28.45% | +3.07 | 1.012 | $122.51 |
| 2026-10-21 | 27.28% | +2.25 | 1.018 | $123.85 |
| 2026-10-20 | 27.99% | +2.36 | 1.006 | $122.51 |
| 2026-10-19 | 27.66% | +2.65 | 1.010 | $121.69 |
| 2026-10-16 | 27.62% | +2.74 | 1.019 | $124.26 |
| 2026-10-15 | 27.05% | +2.35 | 1.020 | $123.21 |
| 2026-10-14 | 28.66% | +2.22 | 0.991 | $122.27 |
| 2026-10-13 | 28.22% | +1.29 | 0.998 | $124.53 |
| 2026-10-09 | 31.64% | +1.80 | 0.923 | $129.64 |
| 2026-10-08 | 31.82% | +2.15 | 0.929 | $128.08 |
| 2026-10-07 | 31.44% | +1.74 | 0.933 | $127.32 |
| 2026-10-06 | 31.71% | +1.58 | 0.923 | $128.52 |
| 2026-10-05 | 31.18% | +1.45 | 0.952 | $128.55 |
| 2026-10-02 | 32.40% | +1.84 | 0.933 | $128.50 |
| 2026-10-01 | 32.64% | +1.61 | 0.949 | $127.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | 31.67% | +2.17 | 0.939 | $129.48 |
| 2026-09-29 | 32.36% | +2.22 | 0.939 | $130.80 |
| 2026-09-28 | 33.21% | +1.41 | 0.916 | $131.31 |
| 2026-09-25 | 32.62% | +2.17 | 0.929 | $134.28 |
| 2026-09-24 | 32.75% | +1.86 | 0.938 | $132.10 |
| 2026-09-23 | 32.95% | +2.09 | 0.936 | $131.93 |
| 2026-09-22 | 32.52% | +2.01 | 0.944 | $132.47 |
| 2026-09-21 | 31.70% | +1.68 | 0.947 | $135.05 |
| 2026-09-18 | 31.39% | +2.37 | 0.957 | $131.77 |
| 2026-09-17 | 31.43% | +1.94 | 0.960 | $132.70 |
| 2026-09-16 | 33.01% | +2.58 | 0.947 | $132.95 |
| 2026-09-15 | 31.94% | +2.42 | 0.965 | $136.17 |
| 2026-09-14 | 31.96% | +1.60 | 0.945 | $136.18 |
| 2026-09-11 | 28.66% | +1.64 | 1.047 | $138.82 |
| 2026-09-10 | 29.04% | +1.23 | 1.048 | $138.50 |
| 2026-09-09 | 27.55% | +1.36 | 1.110 | $137.80 |
| 2026-09-08 | 29.97% | +1.46 | 1.014 | $136.74 |
| 2026-09-04 | 26.02% | +1.79 | 1.130 | $137.72 |
| 2026-09-03 | 26.75% | +1.88 | 1.078 | $138.14 |
| 2026-09-02 | 26.26% | +2.21 | 1.104 | $134.34 |
| 2026-09-01 | 26.42% | +1.47 | 1.088 | $132.54 |
| 2026-08-31 | 25.55% | +1.53 | 1.104 | $131.62 |
| 2026-08-28 | 25.53% | +2.29 | 1.118 | $132.90 |
| 2026-08-27 | 26.13% | +2.27 | 1.105 | $132.68 |
| 2026-08-26 | 26.88% | +0.67 | 1.096 | $133.56 |
| 2026-08-25 | 27.53% | +2.49 | 1.077 | $133.25 |
| 2026-08-24 | 28.07% | +2.23 | 1.069 | $131.72 |
| 2026-08-21 | 27.94% | +2.32 | 1.077 | $131.65 |
| 2026-08-20 | 27.65% | +1.62 | 1.073 | $129.67 |
| 2026-08-19 | 27.65% | +1.65 | 1.064 | $132.89 |
| 2026-08-18 | 26.44% | +1.96 | 1.108 | $137.65 |
| 2026-08-17 | 27.41% | +1.06 | 1.082 | $138.51 |
| 2025-10-22 | 31.42% | +3.85 | 0.975 | $96.30 |
| 2025-10-21 | 30.16% | +4.48 | 0.980 | $98.25 |
| 2025-10-20 | 30.44% | +5.27 | 1.001 | $99.30 |
| 2025-10-17 | 33.94% | +5.08 | 0.942 | $97.07 |
| 2025-10-16 | 38.31% | +5.96 | 0.863 | $96.26 |
| 2025-10-15 | 31.55% | +3.29 | 0.983 | $99.78 |
| 2025-10-14 | 31.89% | +2.86 | 0.960 | $99.84 |
| 2025-10-10 | 37.84% | +3.30 | 0.872 | $93.93 |
| 2025-10-09 | 34.43% | +2.72 | 0.897 | $95.92 |
| 2025-10-08 | 34.06% | +2.00 | 0.896 | $96.70 |
| 2025-10-07 | 33.79% | +2.27 | 0.904 | $97.80 |
| 2025-10-06 | 34.24% | +2.81 | 0.899 | $98.05 |
| 2025-10-03 | 32.70% | +2.10 | 0.926 | $97.74 |
| 2025-10-02 | 33.03% | +3.47 | 0.921 | $97.34 |
| 2025-10-01 | 32.46% | +2.97 | 0.942 | $98.71 |
| 2025-09-30 | 32.71% | +2.95 | 0.924 | $101.50 |
| 2025-09-29 | 31.49% | +2.87 | 0.939 | $103.16 |
| 2025-09-26 | 30.72% | +2.40 | 0.959 | $103.42 |
| 2025-09-25 | 32.12% | +2.48 | 0.944 | $102.11 |
| 2025-09-24 | 33.47% | +1.80 | 0.890 | $101.65 |
| 2025-09-23 | 31.41% | +2.61 | 0.941 | $103.00 |
| 2025-09-22 | 30.18% | +2.25 | 0.957 | $103.49 |
| 2025-09-19 | 30.65% | +2.46 | 0.949 | $102.68 |
| 2025-09-18 | 30.39% | +1.77 | 0.951 | $102.41 |
| 2025-09-17 | 31.11% | +2.30 | 0.941 | $101.76 |
| 2025-09-16 | 30.89% | +2.80 | 0.947 | $100.64 |
| 2025-09-15 | 29.93% | +2.73 | 0.966 | $99.79 |
| 2025-09-12 | 27.69% | +2.89 | 1.043 | $99.44 |
| 2025-09-11 | 26.02% | +4.59 | 1.126 | $98.82 |
| 2025-09-10 | 27.70% | +3.08 | 1.082 | $97.17 |
| 2025-09-09 | 27.08% | +2.72 | 1.080 | $97.34 |
| 2025-09-08 | 26.81% | +2.78 | 1.084 | $95.87 |
| 2025-09-05 | 26.63% | +3.29 | 1.093 | $95.40 |
| 2025-09-04 | 26.85% | +3.57 | 1.090 | $97.08 |
| 2025-09-03 | 26.95% | +3.58 | 1.075 | $95.03 |
| 2025-09-02 | 26.75% | +4.42 | 1.077 | $94.78 |
| 2025-08-29 | 26.13% | +3.04 | 1.105 | $96.57 |
| 2025-08-28 | 25.60% | +2.81 | 1.119 | $96.82 |
| 2025-08-27 | 27.04% | +3.28 | 1.062 | $96.87 |
| 2025-08-26 | 26.00% | +3.31 | 1.086 | $95.72 |
| 2025-08-25 | 26.24% | +3.40 | 1.094 | $95.00 |
| 2025-08-22 | 25.46% | +2.78 | 1.102 | $95.26 |
| 2025-08-21 | 27.69% | +3.68 | 1.059 | $92.59 |
| 2025-08-20 | 27.10% | +3.19 | 1.067 | $93.17 |
| 2025-08-19 | 26.76% | +3.06 | 1.077 | $93.74 |
| 2025-08-18 | 26.27% | +2.84 | 1.077 | $94.22 |
| 2025-08-15 | 26.24% | +2.80 | 1.092 | $93.69 |
| 2025-08-14 | 25.88% | +2.78 | 1.090 | $95.46 |
| 2025-08-13 | 26.22% | +3.22 | 1.079 | $94.65 |
| 2025-08-12 | 25.24% | +2.82 | 1.095 | $95.74 |
| 2025-08-11 | 26.62% | +2.93 | 1.074 | $92.31 |
| 2025-08-08 | 25.71% | +3.25 | 1.097 | $92.73 |
| 2025-08-07 | 26.67% | +2.72 | 1.084 | $91.23 |
| 2025-08-06 | 25.81% | +3.79 | 1.104 | $92.23 |
| 2025-08-05 | 26.63% | +2.98 | 1.085 | $91.52 |
| 2025-08-04 | 25.80% | +2.87 | 1.083 | $92.08 |
| 2025-08-01 | 28.09% | +3.80 | 1.044 | $91.83 |
| 2025-07-31 | 25.32% | +2.81 | 1.107 | $93.70 |
| 2025-07-30 | 25.20% | +2.57 | 1.087 | $95.81 |
| 2025-07-29 | 24.49% | +1.82 | 1.121 | $94.48 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 348 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 33.34% | 29.46% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 33.05% | 29.45% | 26.35% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 33.47% | 29.51% | 26.36% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 33.68% | 29.89% | 26.69% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 33.85% | 30.27% | 26.88% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 34.01% | 30.62% | 27.37% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 34.27% | 30.86% | 27.83% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 34.49% | 31.23% | 28.06% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 34.48% | 31.83% | 28.22% |
| ATM | 34.45% | 31.94% | 28.81% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 34.54% | 32.19% | 30.05% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 34.81% | 32.81% | 30.64% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 35.18% | 33.19% | 31.30% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 35.73% | 32.95% | 31.50% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 36.34% | 33.96% | 31.66% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 37.23% | 34.29% | 32.57% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 38.49% | 36.05% | 33.22% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 40.14% | 37.60% | 35.21% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 43.74% | 41.31% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $122.05 | 34.45% | 36.34% | 33.85% | +2.50 | +0.64 | 21 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $122.13 | 31.94% | 33.96% | 30.27% | +3.69 | +0.17 | 26 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $122.42 | 28.81% | 31.66% | 26.88% | +4.78 | +0.47 | 23 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $122.35 | 28.98% | 31.59% | 27.38% | +4.21 | +0.51 | 21 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $122.55 | 29.16% | 32.08% | 27.16% | +4.92 | +0.46 | 27 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $122.51 | 29.33% | 32.10% | 27.43% | +4.68 | +0.43 | 14 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $122.91 | 29.79% | 32.62% | 26.66% | +5.96 | -0.15 | 22 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $123.06 | 30.10% | 32.35% | 28.23% | +4.12 | +0.19 | 16 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $122.95 | 29.36% | 31.89% | 27.31% | +4.57 | +0.24 | 14 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $123.40 | 29.59% | 31.88% | 27.54% | +4.34 | +0.12 | 17 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $123.88 | 29.45% | 31.61% | 27.76% | +3.85 | +0.23 | 19 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $123.93 | 29.62% | 31.83% | 27.77% | +4.06 | +0.18 | 19 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $124.18 | 29.51% | 31.84% | 28.11% | +3.73 | +0.47 | 31 |
| 2027-07-16 | 248 | $124.56 | 29.67% | 31.83% | 27.83% | +4.01 | +0.16 | 20 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $124.84 | 29.33% | 31.90% | 27.92% | +3.98 | +0.58 | 28 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
15 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $122.05 | 34.45% | $122.11 | 21 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $122.13 | 31.94% | $122.30 | 26 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $122.42 | 28.81% | $122.65 | 23 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $122.35 | 28.98% | $122.69 | 21 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $122.55 | 29.16% | $122.99 | 27 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $122.51 | 29.33% | $123.06 | 14 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $122.91 | 29.79% | $123.57 | 22 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $123.06 | 30.10% | $124.07 | 16 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $122.95 | 29.36% | $124.43 | 14 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $123.40 | 29.59% | $125.33 | 17 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $123.88 | 29.45% | $126.21 | 19 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $123.93 | 29.62% | $126.82 | 19 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $124.18 | 29.51% | $127.47 | 31 |
| 2027-07-16 | 248 天 | $124.56 | 29.67% | $128.34 | 20 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $124.84 | 29.33% | $129.50 | 28 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 29.14%
- 60 天
- 30.04%
- 90 天
- 29.53%
- 180 天
- 29.57%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 4 次
- 67% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 3.1%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 16.6%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | 未说明时间 | 3.3% | -1.8% | 0.55× |
| 2026-07-14 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-14 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-14 | 未说明时间 | 3.5% | +38.7% | 11.03× |
| 2025-07-15 | 未说明时间 | 2.9% | +52.7% | 17.99× |
| 2025-04-15 | 未说明时间 | 3.7% | -3.5% | 0.94× |
| 2025-01-15 | 未说明时间 | 2.2% | +0.3% | 0.14× |
| 2024-10-15 | 未说明时间 | 3.0% | +2.6% | 0.87× |
| 2024-04-12 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-12 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-10 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-13 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。