股票 · 期权分析
CAR 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $124.08
- 30D ATM IV
- 59.21%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 44
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- -1.78
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.005
▼ -2.34 pts 较前一交易日
本交易日部分指标不可用
概览
CAR 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 59.2%,相当于未来一个月约 ±17.0% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 224 个交易日中 44% 的读数。
它的 25-delta call 比 put 的隐含波动率高 1.78 个波动率点,比过去一年中 96% 的交易日都更接近。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-01(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±12.9% 的波动,CAR 实际平均波动 23.4%,6 次中有 2 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 59.21%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- -1.78
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +2.73
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.005
对应 30 天内约 ±17.0% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.7%。
高于过去一年中 44% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，call 比 put的隐含波动率高 1.78 个点。
高于过去一年中 4% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 2.73 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
高于过去一年中 45% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 224 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 44%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 35%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 43%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 33%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $124.08
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $124.30
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 57.53%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 59.48%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- —
- 使用的到期日数
- 4
- 总未平仓量
- 17,486
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.32
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 305 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 59.21% | -1.78 | 1.005 | $124.08 |
| 2026-11-09 | 61.55% | -4.41 | 1.062 | $127.65 |
| 2026-11-06 | — | — | — | $118.83 |
| 2026-11-05 | — | — | — | $120.44 |
| 2026-11-04 | — | — | — | $119.81 |
| 2026-11-03 | 70.95% | -2.56 | 0.884 | $109.34 |
| 2026-11-02 | 71.92% | -1.71 | 0.903 | $111.52 |
| 2026-10-30 | 75.14% | +0.29 | 0.863 | $107.99 |
| 2026-10-29 | 73.35% | +0.40 | 0.887 | $108.16 |
| 2026-10-28 | — | — | — | $101.74 |
| 2026-10-27 | 70.73% | -3.59 | 0.910 | $102.21 |
| 2026-10-26 | — | — | — | $101.86 |
| 2026-10-23 | 72.45% | +0.54 | 0.873 | $101.34 |
| 2026-10-22 | 72.80% | +3.71 | 0.894 | $101.55 |
| 2026-10-21 | 73.36% | +0.74 | 0.847 | $98.39 |
| 2026-10-20 | 71.46% | -0.37 | 0.862 | $102.45 |
| 2026-10-19 | 69.38% | +0.52 | 0.878 | $102.38 |
| 2026-10-16 | — | — | — | $102.83 |
| 2026-10-15 | 71.18% | +1.18 | 0.865 | $109.77 |
| 2026-10-14 | 71.73% | -0.32 | 0.906 | $106.72 |
| 2026-10-13 | 69.85% | +4.82 | 0.895 | $107.60 |
| 2026-10-09 | 66.04% | -1.20 | 0.965 | $105.98 |
| 2026-10-08 | 72.76% | -2.89 | 0.872 | $110.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | 67.82% | -0.29 | 0.885 | $110.22 |
| 2026-10-06 | 67.11% | -1.82 | 0.958 | $112.65 |
| 2026-10-05 | 66.12% | -1.14 | 0.951 | $107.98 |
| 2026-10-02 | 76.28% | -0.75 | 0.816 | $111.22 |
| 2026-10-01 | — | — | — | $106.12 |
| 2026-09-30 | 70.47% | +1.54 | 0.904 | $106.67 |
| 2026-09-29 | 67.30% | -6.87 | 0.947 | $106.79 |
| 2026-09-28 | 66.96% | -9.16 | 0.926 | $104.93 |
| 2026-09-25 | — | — | — | $108.29 |
| 2026-09-24 | 59.38% | -1.81 | 1.067 | $103.54 |
| 2026-09-23 | 66.67% | -5.22 | 0.954 | $105.67 |
| 2026-09-22 | 54.76% | +1.81 | 1.079 | $107.73 |
| 2026-09-21 | 57.93% | -1.78 | 1.054 | $117.26 |
| 2026-09-18 | 54.17% | -1.57 | 1.114 | $117.71 |
| 2026-09-17 | 53.46% | -1.29 | 1.108 | $115.24 |
| 2026-09-16 | 53.56% | -1.63 | 1.140 | $116.96 |
| 2025-10-22 | — | — | — | $151.71 |
| 2025-10-21 | — | — | — | $153.09 |
| 2025-10-20 | — | — | — | $149.11 |
| 2025-10-17 | 57.46% | +2.01 | 0.907 | $150.39 |
| 2025-10-16 | — | — | — | $151.20 |
| 2025-10-15 | — | — | — | $152.22 |
| 2025-10-14 | — | — | — | $155.49 |
| 2025-10-10 | 63.98% | +4.85 | 0.831 | $146.99 |
| 2025-10-09 | 63.27% | +3.92 | 0.813 | $146.87 |
| 2025-10-08 | 61.63% | +3.82 | 0.838 | $146.32 |
| 2025-10-07 | 58.02% | +4.06 | 0.917 | $149.22 |
| 2025-10-06 | 60.77% | +3.78 | 0.882 | $148.41 |
| 2025-10-03 | 53.49% | +4.97 | 0.978 | $154.56 |
| 2025-10-02 | 51.51% | +3.74 | 1.016 | $159.71 |
| 2025-10-01 | 51.85% | +5.13 | 1.018 | $159.01 |
| 2025-09-30 | 52.41% | +4.92 | 0.991 | $160.58 |
| 2025-09-29 | 52.29% | +4.60 | 0.987 | $161.53 |
| 2025-09-26 | 49.92% | +5.33 | 1.033 | $161.27 |
| 2025-09-25 | 52.15% | +3.08 | 1.021 | $163.28 |
| 2025-09-24 | 51.12% | +3.77 | 1.049 | $161.68 |
| 2025-09-23 | 46.94% | +4.20 | 1.100 | $159.38 |
| 2025-09-22 | 50.28% | +3.99 | 1.033 | $157.73 |
| 2025-09-19 | 49.31% | +1.91 | 1.044 | $157.66 |
| 2025-09-18 | 48.42% | +3.67 | 1.059 | $155.92 |
| 2025-09-17 | 46.82% | +3.41 | 1.078 | $153.15 |
| 2025-09-16 | 46.96% | +3.76 | 1.085 | $155.21 |
| 2025-09-15 | — | — | — | $152.35 |
| 2025-09-12 | 45.15% | +2.29 | 1.105 | $155.53 |
| 2025-09-11 | 46.70% | +5.01 | 1.082 | $157.03 |
| 2025-09-10 | 46.88% | +4.36 | 1.063 | $155.78 |
| 2025-09-09 | 46.84% | +3.33 | 1.080 | $157.91 |
| 2025-09-08 | 46.55% | +6.84 | 1.101 | $158.53 |
| 2025-09-05 | 47.14% | +4.26 | 1.072 | $156.28 |
| 2025-09-04 | 45.51% | +5.37 | 1.122 | $156.53 |
| 2025-09-03 | 45.50% | +2.67 | 1.110 | $157.09 |
| 2025-09-02 | 46.58% | +6.20 | 1.103 | $161.20 |
| 2025-08-29 | 44.33% | +4.23 | 1.130 | $158.23 |
| 2025-08-28 | 44.38% | +4.15 | 1.136 | $158.54 |
| 2025-08-27 | 45.36% | +6.27 | 1.082 | $156.95 |
| 2025-08-26 | 45.77% | +3.96 | 1.114 | $153.23 |
| 2025-08-25 | 44.86% | +3.16 | 1.136 | $153.17 |
| 2025-08-22 | 42.88% | +4.37 | 1.176 | $155.49 |
| 2025-08-21 | 46.98% | +4.28 | 1.091 | $150.29 |
| 2025-08-20 | 46.37% | +1.31 | 1.095 | $147.94 |
| 2025-08-19 | 43.77% | +3.92 | 1.100 | $156.62 |
| 2025-08-18 | 43.92% | +3.51 | 1.108 | $158.76 |
| 2025-08-15 | 43.30% | +6.03 | 1.111 | $155.63 |
| 2025-08-14 | 42.68% | +4.35 | 1.120 | $158.32 |
| 2025-08-13 | 41.77% | +4.36 | 1.129 | $161.25 |
| 2025-08-12 | 42.42% | +3.35 | 1.094 | $159.85 |
| 2025-08-11 | — | — | — | $153.08 |
| 2025-08-08 | 44.43% | +3.24 | 1.081 | $153.71 |
| 2025-08-07 | 46.16% | +2.83 | 1.047 | $156.75 |
| 2025-08-06 | 47.26% | +1.33 | 1.033 | $156.64 |
| 2025-08-05 | 47.04% | +4.25 | 1.047 | $159.21 |
| 2025-08-04 | 49.90% | +3.60 | 1.004 | $160.46 |
| 2025-08-01 | 50.30% | +4.18 | 1.089 | $164.07 |
| 2025-07-31 | 50.31% | +3.41 | 1.065 | $170.24 |
| 2025-07-30 | 50.56% | +3.23 | 1.033 | $172.46 |
| 2025-07-29 | 60.16% | +1.82 | 0.948 | $203.88 |
| 2025-07-28 | 59.94% | +0.29 | 0.949 | $206.04 |
| 2025-07-25 | 60.86% | +0.50 | 0.947 | $206.79 |
| 2025-07-24 | 62.63% | -0.18 | 0.933 | $207.55 |
| 2025-07-23 | 63.41% | +1.54 | 0.910 | $207.49 |
| 2025-07-22 | 60.02% | +3.75 | 0.954 | $199.75 |
| 2025-07-21 | 57.99% | +3.56 | 0.961 | $190.08 |
| 2025-07-18 | 59.96% | +3.33 | 0.951 | $192.48 |
| 2025-07-17 | 61.58% | +4.64 | 0.967 | $196.09 |
| 2025-07-16 | 63.02% | +4.63 | 0.937 | $191.73 |
| 2025-07-15 | 64.38% | +5.30 | 0.918 | $192.58 |
| 2025-07-14 | 61.74% | +1.21 | 0.969 | $194.86 |
| 2025-07-11 | 60.91% | +0.75 | 0.962 | $191.39 |
| 2025-07-10 | — | — | — | $189.19 |
| 2025-07-09 | 63.89% | +3.59 | 0.939 | $177.80 |
| 2025-07-08 | 67.22% | +6.19 | 0.915 | $178.52 |
| 2025-07-07 | 71.43% | +2.47 | 0.916 | $181.52 |
| 2025-07-03 | 60.26% | +3.56 | 1.026 | $181.31 |
| 2025-07-02 | 59.02% | +4.22 | 1.060 | $177.60 |
| 2025-07-01 | 61.28% | +4.91 | 1.038 | $171.89 |
| 2025-06-30 | 60.08% | +2.51 | 1.045 | $169.05 |
| 2025-06-27 | 62.54% | +0.38 | 1.029 | $174.22 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 305 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 305 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
10d (2026-11-20) · 38d (2026-12-18) · 66d (2027-01-15)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 10d | 38d | 66d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | — | — | 84.37% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | — | — | 74.06% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | — | — | 67.38% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 67.75% | 65.22% | 62.07% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 65.45% | 62.54% | 61.46% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 63.77% | 60.69% | 60.37% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 64.94% | 60.65% | 59.09% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 63.01% | 59.99% | 58.10% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 63.39% | 58.55% | 57.82% |
| ATM | 63.47% | 58.74% | 57.33% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 63.32% | 58.98% | 56.52% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 63.81% | 59.24% | 56.34% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 63.71% | 59.60% | 56.34% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 64.86% | 60.02% | 56.44% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 66.93% | 60.39% | 56.81% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | — | 61.43% | 57.55% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | — | 62.46% | 59.13% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | — | — | 62.58% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | — | — | 62.97% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $124.05 | 63.47% | 66.93% | 65.45% | +1.48 | +2.72 | 15 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $124.40 | 58.74% | 60.39% | 62.54% | -2.15 | +2.73 | 12 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $124.29 | 57.33% | 56.81% | 61.46% | -4.66 | +1.80 | 17 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $125.56 | 60.11% | 63.72% | 67.44% | -3.72 | +5.46 | 18 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
4 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $124.05 | 63.47% | $124.74 | 15 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $124.40 | 58.74% | $126.65 | 12 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $124.29 | 57.33% | $128.04 | 17 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $125.56 | 60.11% | $131.99 | 18 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 59.21%
- 60 天
- 57.53%
- 90 天
- 59.48%
- 180 天
- —
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 305 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 2 次
- 33% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 12.9%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 23.4%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 收盘后 | 13.3% | +9.6% | 0.72× |
| 2026-10-26 | 未说明时间 | 7.2% | +0.3% | 0.05× |
| 2026-07-28 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-18 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-27 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-29 | 收盘后 | 11.2% | -42.6% | 3.79× |
| 2025-05-07 | 收盘后 | 13.0% | +16.4% | 1.26× |
| 2025-02-11 | 收盘后 | 16.5% | +30.4% | 1.84× |
| 2024-10-31 | 收盘后 | 16.2% | +40.9% | 2.53× |
| 2024-08-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-12 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。