股票 · 期权分析
CHTR 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $134.06
- 30D ATM IV
- 59.31%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 81
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +1.98
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.015
▲ +1.81 pts 较前一交易日
概览
CHTR 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 59.3%,相当于未来一个月约 ±17.0% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 220 个交易日中 81% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 1.98 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-05(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 7 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±13.1% 的波动,CHTR 实际平均波动 8.6%,7 次中有 6 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 59.31%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +1.98
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.07
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.015
对应 30 天内约 ±17.0% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.7%。
高于过去一年中 81% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 1.98 个点。
高于过去一年中 29% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.07 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 1%。
高于过去一年中 39% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 220 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 81%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 60%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 86%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 60%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $134.06
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $135.04
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 57.43%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 60.17%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 63.16%
- 使用的到期日数
- 6
- 总未平仓量
- 90,166
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.79
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 343 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 59.31% | +1.98 | 1.015 | $134.06 |
| 2026-11-09 | 57.50% | +2.61 | 1.047 | $121.20 |
| 2026-11-06 | 58.26% | +2.10 | 1.001 | $118.07 |
| 2026-11-05 | 79.42% | +1.98 | 0.803 | $125.86 |
| 2026-11-04 | 70.13% | +9.71 | 0.915 | $120.25 |
| 2026-11-03 | 77.49% | +4.12 | 0.804 | $113.79 |
| 2026-11-02 | 76.22% | +4.67 | 0.862 | $115.54 |
| 2026-10-30 | 77.67% | +1.02 | 0.846 | $111.49 |
| 2026-10-29 | 72.62% | +2.61 | 0.888 | $109.00 |
| 2026-10-28 | 82.01% | +1.25 | 0.792 | $105.39 |
| 2026-10-27 | 76.02% | -0.24 | 0.864 | $104.93 |
| 2026-10-26 | 75.71% | +6.78 | 0.855 | $102.18 |
| 2026-10-23 | 74.30% | +3.46 | 0.860 | $108.61 |
| 2026-10-22 | 77.77% | +3.30 | 0.814 | $111.77 |
| 2026-10-21 | 74.00% | +2.14 | 0.864 | $107.26 |
| 2026-10-20 | 76.87% | +3.86 | 0.815 | $110.03 |
| 2026-10-19 | 78.28% | +1.86 | 0.825 | $108.51 |
| 2026-10-16 | — | — | — | $110.11 |
| 2026-10-15 | 75.55% | +2.78 | 0.839 | $109.99 |
| 2026-10-14 | 71.24% | +0.40 | 0.871 | $105.14 |
| 2026-10-13 | 75.91% | -3.21 | 0.831 | $106.95 |
| 2026-10-09 | 68.87% | +0.79 | 0.924 | $103.38 |
| 2026-10-08 | 67.84% | +0.58 | 0.911 | $109.67 |
| 2026-10-07 | 68.61% | +0.74 | 0.888 | $106.96 |
| 2026-10-06 | 74.03% | +0.76 | 0.855 | $108.64 |
| 2026-10-05 | 71.34% | +0.20 | 0.893 | $107.77 |
| 2026-10-02 | 64.17% | -1.20 | 0.966 | $109.29 |
| 2026-10-01 | 69.00% | -2.88 | 0.923 | $111.37 |
| 2026-09-30 | 70.45% | -5.34 | 0.899 | $110.90 |
| 2026-09-29 | 61.51% | +0.14 | 1.033 | $110.67 |
| 2026-09-28 | 60.42% | -0.40 | 1.041 | $111.40 |
| 2026-09-25 | 61.78% | +4.89 | 1.000 | $112.91 |
| 2026-09-24 | 53.61% | +3.08 | 1.159 | $117.55 |
| 2026-09-23 | 55.19% | -0.88 | 1.095 | $116.61 |
| 2026-09-22 | 52.01% | -1.86 | 1.155 | $117.26 |
| 2026-09-21 | 59.07% | -2.82 | 0.978 | $123.35 |
| 2026-09-18 | 54.64% | +0.33 | 1.098 | $128.17 |
| 2026-09-17 | 49.73% | +0.03 | 1.200 | $133.37 |
| 2026-09-16 | 52.08% | -0.03 | 1.091 | $135.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | — | — | — | $141.20 |
| 2026-09-14 | 53.22% | +0.21 | 1.064 | $143.35 |
| 2026-09-11 | — | — | — | $145.77 |
| 2026-09-10 | — | — | — | $140.56 |
| 2026-09-09 | — | — | — | $133.89 |
| 2026-09-08 | — | — | — | $145.74 |
| 2026-09-04 | — | — | — | $151.99 |
| 2026-09-03 | — | — | — | $151.38 |
| 2026-09-02 | — | — | — | $158.97 |
| 2026-09-01 | — | — | — | $146.19 |
| 2026-08-31 | 54.37% | -2.94 | 1.029 | $152.44 |
| 2026-08-28 | — | — | — | $153.62 |
| 2026-08-27 | — | — | — | $148.32 |
| 2026-08-26 | 52.52% | +0.13 | 1.174 | $153.89 |
| 2026-08-25 | 58.49% | -0.25 | 1.088 | $155.14 |
| 2026-08-24 | 52.33% | -4.27 | 1.120 | $150.30 |
| 2026-08-21 | 49.29% | -9.03 | 1.286 | $150.17 |
| 2026-08-20 | 52.54% | -3.74 | 1.194 | $147.76 |
| 2026-08-19 | — | — | — | $152.47 |
| 2025-10-22 | 69.77% | +2.11 | 0.759 | $244.94 |
| 2025-10-21 | 64.59% | +3.03 | 0.804 | $252.52 |
| 2025-10-20 | 63.90% | +3.81 | 0.787 | $251.51 |
| 2025-10-17 | 63.59% | +3.13 | 0.784 | $253.16 |
| 2025-10-16 | 66.58% | +2.32 | 0.761 | $255.34 |
| 2025-10-15 | 60.34% | +0.07 | 0.795 | $264.56 |
| 2025-10-14 | 64.39% | +1.23 | 0.739 | $266.25 |
| 2025-10-10 | 55.86% | +2.27 | 0.888 | $259.49 |
| 2025-10-09 | 65.01% | +1.98 | 0.763 | $265.00 |
| 2025-10-08 | 63.38% | -0.54 | 0.769 | $274.37 |
| 2025-10-07 | 61.42% | +0.87 | 0.804 | $276.48 |
| 2025-10-06 | 63.11% | +2.34 | 0.790 | $282.74 |
| 2025-10-03 | 62.74% | +3.18 | 0.790 | $280.01 |
| 2025-10-02 | 61.71% | +1.77 | 0.801 | $269.61 |
| 2025-10-01 | 62.52% | -0.51 | 0.780 | $275.10 |
| 2025-09-30 | 58.99% | +0.99 | 0.830 | $275.11 |
| 2025-09-29 | 54.82% | -0.54 | 0.874 | $276.12 |
| 2025-09-26 | 45.90% | +0.76 | 1.033 | $273.40 |
| 2025-09-25 | 46.83% | -1.42 | 1.014 | $270.57 |
| 2025-09-24 | 40.75% | +0.45 | 1.169 | $263.39 |
| 2025-09-23 | 41.96% | -0.59 | 1.133 | $267.04 |
| 2025-09-22 | 47.87% | +0.90 | 0.989 | $266.13 |
| 2025-09-19 | 40.89% | +1.09 | 1.161 | $262.55 |
| 2025-09-18 | 40.06% | +2.13 | 1.168 | $262.17 |
| 2025-09-17 | 40.04% | +5.62 | 1.167 | $268.02 |
| 2025-09-16 | 39.96% | +1.52 | 1.173 | $261.08 |
| 2025-09-15 | 38.13% | +2.05 | 1.184 | $260.72 |
| 2025-09-12 | 35.43% | +3.99 | 1.231 | $263.40 |
| 2025-09-11 | 36.35% | +1.24 | 1.160 | $263.92 |
| 2025-09-10 | 40.39% | +3.50 | 1.080 | $263.00 |
| 2025-09-09 | 38.06% | +2.06 | 1.146 | $263.35 |
| 2025-09-08 | 38.29% | +2.04 | 1.129 | $263.88 |
| 2025-09-05 | 37.19% | +1.28 | 1.149 | $261.50 |
| 2025-09-04 | 37.26% | +2.36 | 1.138 | $259.51 |
| 2025-09-03 | 36.69% | -0.15 | 1.137 | $261.22 |
| 2025-09-02 | 36.07% | +1.89 | 1.137 | $264.42 |
| 2025-08-29 | 37.32% | -0.25 | 1.091 | $265.58 |
| 2025-08-28 | 34.77% | +1.74 | 1.156 | $263.63 |
| 2025-08-27 | 35.78% | +3.84 | 1.123 | $269.15 |
| 2025-08-26 | 35.59% | +2.96 | 1.109 | $266.67 |
| 2025-08-25 | 35.13% | +2.31 | 1.115 | $273.44 |
| 2025-08-22 | 33.85% | +2.12 | 1.125 | $277.58 |
| 2025-08-21 | 34.45% | +2.90 | 1.130 | $267.98 |
| 2025-08-20 | 36.65% | +2.68 | 1.108 | $266.62 |
| 2025-08-19 | 37.15% | +2.19 | 1.108 | $267.01 |
| 2025-08-18 | 37.20% | +2.66 | 1.109 | $266.81 |
| 2025-08-15 | 36.97% | +3.35 | 1.106 | $267.80 |
| 2025-08-14 | 37.41% | +2.41 | 1.106 | $263.20 |
| 2025-08-13 | 36.33% | +2.44 | 1.144 | $269.00 |
| 2025-08-12 | 37.56% | +2.20 | 1.121 | $263.10 |
| 2025-08-11 | 38.30% | +3.03 | 1.108 | $258.77 |
| 2025-08-08 | 36.87% | +3.45 | 1.145 | $256.57 |
| 2025-08-07 | 36.99% | +2.61 | 1.125 | $258.78 |
| 2025-08-06 | 35.67% | +2.86 | 1.158 | $262.04 |
| 2025-08-05 | 36.46% | +2.62 | 1.135 | $265.98 |
| 2025-08-04 | 36.61% | +2.41 | 1.120 | $261.75 |
| 2025-08-01 | 34.55% | +2.22 | 1.168 | $264.69 |
| 2025-07-31 | 36.82% | +2.05 | 1.059 | $269.36 |
| 2025-07-30 | 35.64% | +1.55 | 1.066 | $279.89 |
| 2025-07-29 | 34.92% | +2.03 | 1.082 | $280.68 |
| 2025-07-28 | 32.92% | +2.05 | 1.076 | $298.27 |
| 2025-07-25 | 33.30% | +2.39 | 1.084 | $309.75 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 343 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 343 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 38d (2026-12-18)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 38d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | — | — | 58.98% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | — | — | 56.60% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 75.52% | — | 57.05% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 73.80% | 64.03% | 57.12% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 71.69% | 64.78% | 57.67% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 71.42% | 64.77% | 57.52% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 71.10% | 64.65% | 57.48% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 71.67% | 64.63% | 57.67% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 69.52% | 64.72% | 58.29% |
| ATM | 68.69% | 64.88% | 58.69% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 69.58% | 65.36% | 58.85% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 70.04% | 64.93% | 58.70% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 70.41% | 63.64% | 58.79% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 70.37% | 64.89% | 59.18% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 70.71% | 67.36% | 59.58% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | — | 66.38% | 60.68% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | — | 68.11% | 63.57% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | — | 68.93% | 63.98% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $134.60 | 68.69% | 70.71% | 71.69% | -0.98 | +2.51 | 14 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $134.75 | 64.88% | 67.36% | 64.78% | +2.58 | +1.19 | 14 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $135.15 | 58.69% | 59.58% | 57.67% | +1.91 | -0.07 | 16 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $135.65 | 57.23% | 58.80% | 55.87% | +2.93 | +0.10 | 18 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $136.32 | 62.52% | 63.15% | 60.73% | +2.42 | -0.58 | 32 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $136.44 | 63.45% | 62.85% | 58.82% | +4.04 | -2.62 | 28 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
6 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $134.60 | 68.69% | $134.86 | 14 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $134.75 | 64.88% | $135.53 | 14 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $135.15 | 58.69% | $137.60 | 16 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $135.65 | 57.23% | $139.73 | 18 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $136.32 | 62.52% | $146.07 | 32 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $136.44 | 63.45% | $153.95 | 28 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 59.31%
- 60 天
- 57.43%
- 90 天
- 60.17%
- 180 天
- 63.16%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 343 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 7 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 7 次中 6 次
- 86% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 13.1%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 8.6%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | 开盘前 | 17.5% | -6.2% | 0.35× |
| 2026-10-30 | 未说明时间 | 16.9% | +3.6% | 0.22× |
| 2026-10-23 | 未说明时间 | 8.6% | -5.9% | 0.69× |
| 2026-07-24 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-24 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-30 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-31 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-25 | 开盘前 | 11.9% | -18.5% | 1.55× |
| 2025-04-25 | 开盘前 | 12.7% | +11.4% | 0.90× |
| 2025-01-31 | 开盘前 | 11.6% | +2.6% | 0.23× |
| 2024-11-01 | 开盘前 | 12.7% | +11.9% | 0.94× |
| 2024-07-26 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-26 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-02 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-27 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。