股票 · 期权分析
CLF 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $12.86
- 30D ATM IV
- 65.10%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 44
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +4.55
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.972
▼ -0.71 pts 较前一交易日
概览
CLF 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 65.1%,相当于未来一个月约 ±18.7% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 249 个交易日中 44% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 4.55 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 3%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-18(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 7 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±10.7% 的波动,CLF 实际平均波动 17.3%,7 次中有 3 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 65.10%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +4.55
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.17
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.972
对应 30 天内约 ±18.7% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.1%。
高于过去一年中 44% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 4.55 个点。
高于过去一年中 75% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.17 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 3%。
高于过去一年中 58% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 249 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 44%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 22%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 49%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 29%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $12.86
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $12.88
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 61.89%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 63.29%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 65.45%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 559,462
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.57
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 305 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 65.10% | +4.55 | 0.972 | $12.86 |
| 2026-11-09 | 65.81% | +8.78 | 0.968 | $12.26 |
| 2026-11-06 | 67.50% | +1.94 | 0.957 | $11.46 |
| 2026-11-05 | 70.88% | +4.83 | 0.917 | $11.27 |
| 2026-11-04 | 64.71% | -0.60 | 0.962 | $12.84 |
| 2026-11-03 | 66.70% | -1.12 | 0.924 | $14.14 |
| 2026-11-02 | 64.93% | +0.75 | 0.930 | $14.27 |
| 2026-10-30 | 64.77% | -1.73 | 0.899 | $14.25 |
| 2026-10-29 | 60.03% | -0.90 | 0.968 | $14.26 |
| 2026-10-28 | 65.29% | -0.13 | 0.954 | $13.94 |
| 2026-10-27 | 59.66% | +0.55 | 0.965 | $13.90 |
| 2026-10-26 | 62.91% | -1.17 | 0.921 | $13.38 |
| 2026-10-23 | 63.33% | +1.51 | 0.951 | $13.90 |
| 2026-10-22 | 64.92% | -3.38 | 0.897 | $13.05 |
| 2026-10-21 | 57.07% | +0.31 | 0.990 | $14.03 |
| 2026-10-20 | 61.73% | -0.11 | 0.938 | $13.65 |
| 2026-10-19 | 66.62% | +0.59 | 0.925 | $14.10 |
| 2026-10-16 | 76.87% | -1.11 | 0.856 | $12.12 |
| 2026-10-15 | 75.40% | -2.67 | 0.875 | $12.15 |
| 2026-10-14 | 74.13% | +2.45 | 0.893 | $12.58 |
| 2026-10-13 | 72.30% | +2.77 | 0.898 | $12.86 |
| 2026-10-09 | 73.84% | -4.53 | 0.897 | $12.98 |
| 2026-10-08 | 71.68% | -4.61 | 0.901 | $12.19 |
| 2026-10-07 | 72.72% | -0.51 | 0.893 | $12.06 |
| 2026-10-06 | 70.48% | +0.25 | 0.930 | $12.25 |
| 2026-10-05 | 70.45% | -1.31 | 0.920 | $12.20 |
| 2026-10-02 | 71.57% | -2.56 | 0.906 | $11.32 |
| 2026-10-01 | 72.01% | -3.52 | 0.904 | $11.47 |
| 2026-09-30 | 64.56% | +0.41 | 0.960 | $11.01 |
| 2026-09-29 | 66.61% | +2.65 | 0.951 | $11.01 |
| 2026-09-28 | 68.13% | +0.40 | 0.941 | $11.22 |
| 2026-09-25 | 64.48% | +1.65 | 0.988 | $12.18 |
| 2026-09-24 | 64.91% | -1.11 | 0.988 | $12.50 |
| 2026-09-23 | 64.26% | +0.39 | 0.979 | $12.87 |
| 2026-09-22 | 62.52% | +4.29 | 1.027 | $12.53 |
| 2026-09-21 | 60.55% | +0.28 | 1.028 | $12.07 |
| 2026-09-18 | 59.20% | -0.13 | 1.043 | $12.50 |
| 2026-09-17 | 59.73% | -0.34 | 1.062 | $12.76 |
| 2026-09-16 | 59.13% | +0.92 | 1.059 | $12.15 |
| 2025-10-22 | 67.31% | -0.62 | 0.953 | $13.00 |
| 2025-10-21 | 66.52% | -0.25 | 0.953 | $13.39 |
| 2025-10-20 | 69.84% | +0.76 | 0.948 | $16.18 |
| 2025-10-17 | 74.08% | +1.93 | 0.911 | $13.32 |
| 2025-10-16 | 77.18% | +2.39 | 0.867 | $13.56 |
| 2025-10-15 | 74.42% | +0.59 | 0.886 | $13.95 |
| 2025-10-14 | 74.69% | +1.44 | 0.897 | $13.96 |
| 2025-10-10 | 75.07% | +0.48 | 0.916 | $13.18 |
| 2025-10-09 | 76.23% | +0.63 | 0.883 | $14.20 |
| 2025-10-08 | 74.41% | +0.93 | 0.880 | $13.90 |
| 2025-10-07 | 69.24% | +6.57 | 0.941 | $12.81 |
| 2025-10-06 | 75.83% | -2.02 | 0.863 | $12.64 |
| 2025-10-03 | 73.06% | +1.55 | 0.887 | $12.75 |
| 2025-10-02 | 72.46% | -0.30 | 0.907 | $12.70 |
| 2025-10-01 | 73.82% | +1.94 | 0.905 | $12.44 |
| 2025-09-30 | 74.28% | -5.49 | 0.894 | $12.20 |
| 2025-09-29 | 72.32% | +0.48 | 0.886 | $12.84 |
| 2025-09-26 | 67.06% | -1.18 | 0.930 | $12.37 |
| 2025-09-25 | 64.81% | +3.74 | 0.966 | $12.07 |
| 2025-09-24 | 69.85% | -5.84 | 0.903 | $11.73 |
| 2025-09-23 | 67.47% | +0.94 | 0.939 | $11.50 |
| 2025-09-22 | 66.25% | -2.45 | 0.956 | $11.75 |
| 2025-09-19 | 63.45% | -0.32 | 0.970 | $11.61 |
| 2025-09-18 | 63.93% | -1.48 | 0.985 | $11.43 |
| 2025-09-17 | 59.55% | +3.45 | 1.050 | $11.29 |
| 2025-09-16 | 60.26% | +3.04 | 1.031 | $11.72 |
| 2025-09-15 | 59.69% | +3.13 | 1.031 | $11.89 |
| 2025-09-12 | 59.04% | +2.83 | 1.018 | $11.68 |
| 2025-09-11 | 59.61% | +0.58 | 1.024 | $11.79 |
| 2025-09-10 | 58.38% | +6.66 | 1.059 | $11.37 |
| 2025-09-09 | 61.84% | +2.56 | 1.005 | $10.81 |
| 2025-09-08 | 61.03% | +3.97 | 1.049 | $11.02 |
| 2025-09-05 | 59.58% | +1.65 | 1.043 | $11.39 |
| 2025-09-04 | 61.65% | +0.64 | 1.011 | $10.52 |
| 2025-09-03 | 66.19% | +2.07 | 0.954 | $10.47 |
| 2025-09-02 | 67.07% | +4.19 | 0.951 | $10.45 |
| 2025-08-29 | 64.55% | +1.22 | 0.976 | $10.75 |
| 2025-08-28 | 66.04% | +1.74 | 0.967 | $10.88 |
| 2025-08-27 | 69.13% | -2.24 | 0.936 | $10.79 |
| 2025-08-26 | 61.72% | +1.62 | 0.981 | $10.54 |
| 2025-08-25 | 61.86% | +7.21 | 0.974 | $10.50 |
| 2025-08-22 | 60.70% | +2.88 | 0.987 | $10.44 |
| 2025-08-21 | 64.05% | +2.01 | 0.963 | $10.07 |
| 2025-08-20 | 63.28% | +3.61 | 0.973 | $10.22 |
| 2025-08-19 | 63.84% | +4.90 | 0.972 | $10.43 |
| 2025-08-18 | 62.89% | +3.54 | 0.980 | $10.58 |
| 2025-08-15 | 62.26% | +4.17 | 0.990 | $10.41 |
| 2025-08-14 | 63.43% | +3.97 | 0.983 | $10.56 |
| 2025-08-13 | 64.12% | +2.54 | 0.967 | $10.63 |
| 2025-08-12 | 63.08% | +3.78 | 0.970 | $9.91 |
| 2025-08-11 | 66.42% | +4.33 | 0.941 | $9.72 |
| 2025-08-08 | 63.23% | +4.15 | 0.962 | $9.56 |
| 2025-08-07 | 64.32% | +1.58 | 0.988 | $9.42 |
| 2025-08-06 | 65.47% | -0.21 | 0.974 | $9.37 |
| 2025-08-05 | 64.32% | +2.43 | 0.983 | $9.65 |
| 2025-08-04 | 64.25% | +3.01 | 0.985 | $9.71 |
| 2025-08-01 | 62.87% | +3.34 | 1.012 | $10.06 |
| 2025-07-31 | 59.99% | +1.44 | 1.029 | $10.52 |
| 2025-07-30 | 59.90% | +2.23 | 1.021 | $10.49 |
| 2025-07-29 | 61.50% | +3.43 | 0.992 | $10.86 |
| 2025-07-28 | 62.36% | +5.47 | 0.955 | $11.26 |
| 2025-07-25 | 57.77% | +0.95 | 1.040 | $11.44 |
| 2025-07-24 | 59.36% | +1.43 | 1.023 | $10.91 |
| 2025-07-23 | 58.83% | +3.09 | 1.022 | $11.27 |
| 2025-07-22 | 73.14% | -1.44 | 0.835 | $11.32 |
| 2025-07-21 | 64.37% | -2.72 | 0.955 | $10.66 |
| 2025-07-18 | 66.99% | +0.10 | 0.952 | $9.48 |
| 2025-07-17 | 68.32% | +1.98 | 0.932 | $9.39 |
| 2025-07-16 | 70.10% | +0.70 | 0.928 | $9.14 |
| 2025-07-15 | 70.41% | +1.36 | 0.893 | $9.07 |
| 2025-07-14 | 69.39% | +0.75 | 0.933 | $9.49 |
| 2025-07-11 | 69.01% | +1.18 | 0.929 | $9.87 |
| 2025-07-10 | 70.84% | +4.70 | 0.915 | $9.77 |
| 2025-07-09 | 68.55% | +6.61 | 0.969 | $8.85 |
| 2025-07-08 | 71.89% | +3.39 | 0.937 | $8.88 |
| 2025-07-07 | 72.63% | +3.72 | 0.937 | $8.49 |
| 2025-07-03 | 71.17% | +3.28 | 0.935 | $8.82 |
| 2025-07-02 | 67.00% | +6.99 | 0.992 | $8.76 |
| 2025-07-01 | 80.61% | +4.48 | 0.835 | $8.12 |
| 2025-06-30 | 69.10% | +3.94 | 0.980 | $7.60 |
| 2025-06-27 | 67.42% | +4.10 | 1.010 | $7.42 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 305 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 305 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 75.37% | 67.68% | 63.68% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 73.11% | 65.21% | 62.99% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 73.22% | 66.68% | 61.29% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 73.45% | 66.01% | 62.61% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 73.71% | 65.78% | 62.48% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 74.20% | 66.28% | 62.38% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 74.83% | 66.93% | 62.66% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 75.44% | 67.70% | 63.10% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 75.92% | 68.61% | 63.92% |
| ATM | 76.26% | 69.46% | 64.92% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 76.57% | 70.31% | 66.25% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 76.88% | 71.07% | 67.27% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 77.25% | 71.56% | 66.82% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 77.74% | 71.91% | 66.03% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 78.34% | 72.36% | 66.67% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 79.17% | 72.97% | 68.33% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 80.56% | 74.24% | 68.95% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 83.98% | 78.28% | 71.81% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 90.78% | 83.13% | 74.24% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $12.84 | 76.26% | 78.34% | 73.71% | +4.63 | -0.24 | 8 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $12.85 | 69.46% | 72.36% | 65.78% | +6.57 | -0.39 | 14 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $12.86 | 64.92% | 66.67% | 62.48% | +4.18 | -0.34 | 16 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $12.87 | 65.84% | 65.97% | 64.43% | +1.55 | -0.64 | 12 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $12.88 | 65.00% | 67.74% | 62.80% | +4.93 | +0.27 | 10 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $12.88 | 63.65% | 65.65% | 61.55% | +4.11 | -0.05 | 14 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $12.88 | 63.89% | 65.79% | 61.18% | +4.61 | -0.40 | 12 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $12.94 | 61.37% | 64.47% | 60.49% | +3.98 | +1.10 | 19 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $13.08 | 64.84% | 67.37% | 63.94% | +3.43 | +0.81 | 16 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $13.04 | 64.96% | 67.66% | 64.45% | +3.21 | +1.10 | 13 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $13.17 | 66.03% | 69.23% | 63.80% | +5.43 | +0.48 | 22 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $13.37 | 64.60% | 67.69% | 62.61% | +5.08 | +0.55 | 10 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $12.84 | 76.26% | $12.87 | 8 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $12.85 | 69.46% | $12.94 | 14 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $12.86 | 64.92% | $12.99 | 16 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $12.87 | 65.84% | $13.05 | 12 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $12.88 | 65.00% | $13.11 | 10 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $12.88 | 63.65% | $13.16 | 14 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $12.88 | 63.89% | $13.20 | 12 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $12.94 | 61.37% | $13.39 | 19 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $13.08 | 64.84% | $14.08 | 16 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $13.04 | 64.96% | $14.27 | 13 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $13.17 | 66.03% | $15.01 | 22 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $13.37 | 64.60% | $15.97 | 10 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 65.10%
- 60 天
- 61.89%
- 90 天
- 63.29%
- 180 天
- 65.45%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 305 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 7 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 7 次中 3 次
- 43% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 10.7%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 17.3%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2026-10-19 | 开盘前 | 9.5% | -3.2% | 0.34× |
| 2026-07-23 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-20 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-09 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-20 | 开盘前 | 13.0% | +21.5% | 1.65× |
| 2025-07-21 | 开盘前 | 11.4% | +12.4% | 1.09× |
| 2025-05-07 | 收盘后 | 10.4% | +43.1% | 4.13× |
| 2025-02-24 | 收盘后 | 9.3% | +9.0% | 0.96× |
| 2025-02-03 | 收盘后 | 7.5% | +24.7% | 3.30× |
| 2024-11-04 | 收盘后 | 13.8% | -7.3% | 0.53× |
| 2024-07-22 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-22 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-23 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。