股票 · 期权分析
CLS 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $223.89
- 30D ATM IV
- 78.97%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 76
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +8.78
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.986
▼ -6.67 pts 较前一交易日
概览
CLS 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 79.0%,相当于未来一个月约 ±22.6% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 250 个交易日中 76% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 8.78 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 8% 的交易日差距比这更大。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 1%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-25(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 4 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±14.8% 的波动,CLS 实际平均波动 143.2%,4 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 78.97%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +8.78
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.61
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.986
对应 30 天内约 ±22.6% 的波动，平常一天约 ±5.0%。
高于过去一年中 76% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 8.78 个点。
高于过去一年中 92% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.61 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 1%。
高于过去一年中 48% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 250 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 76%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 36%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 80%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 43%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $223.89
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $225.10
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 77.01%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 77.89%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 76.41%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 98,188
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.03
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 305 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 78.97% | +8.78 | 0.986 | $223.89 |
| 2026-11-09 | 85.64% | +8.25 | 0.918 | $222.92 |
| 2026-11-06 | 89.91% | +14.21 | 0.890 | $206.68 |
| 2026-11-05 | 97.45% | +7.90 | 0.854 | $205.64 |
| 2026-11-04 | 80.03% | +4.65 | 0.907 | $236.41 |
| 2026-11-03 | 75.34% | +5.10 | 0.962 | $259.94 |
| 2026-11-02 | 79.97% | +5.54 | 0.901 | $249.22 |
| 2026-10-30 | 69.04% | +3.49 | 1.002 | $265.53 |
| 2026-10-29 | 67.67% | +0.84 | 0.975 | $282.75 |
| 2026-10-28 | 67.62% | -2.50 | 0.964 | $299.80 |
| 2026-10-27 | 71.00% | -0.47 | 0.961 | $276.54 |
| 2026-10-26 | 87.85% | +1.96 | 0.831 | $246.65 |
| 2026-10-23 | 83.31% | +1.64 | 0.869 | $260.01 |
| 2026-10-22 | 83.69% | +3.46 | 0.844 | $269.01 |
| 2026-10-21 | 78.63% | +0.70 | 0.842 | $304.61 |
| 2026-10-20 | 77.44% | +5.27 | 0.889 | $299.69 |
| 2026-10-19 | 79.73% | +3.65 | 0.851 | $300.35 |
| 2026-10-16 | 82.69% | -0.59 | 0.823 | $303.81 |
| 2026-10-15 | 81.08% | +3.77 | 0.840 | $315.25 |
| 2026-10-14 | 82.22% | -2.70 | 0.808 | $323.32 |
| 2026-10-13 | 75.73% | +1.31 | 0.840 | $357.44 |
| 2026-10-09 | 73.27% | -1.86 | 0.850 | $362.16 |
| 2026-10-08 | 72.83% | -0.12 | 0.855 | $356.53 |
| 2026-10-07 | 73.54% | -6.06 | 0.849 | $371.57 |
| 2026-10-06 | 71.82% | -1.83 | 0.864 | $388.24 |
| 2026-10-05 | 74.15% | -2.55 | 0.858 | $382.69 |
| 2026-10-02 | 74.47% | -1.29 | 0.885 | $387.32 |
| 2026-10-01 | 74.64% | +1.73 | 0.891 | $373.09 |
| 2026-09-30 | 75.43% | -4.42 | 0.885 | $361.43 |
| 2026-09-29 | 73.49% | -5.35 | 0.906 | $366.47 |
| 2026-09-28 | 70.02% | -0.09 | 0.948 | $356.53 |
| 2026-09-25 | 63.93% | -0.62 | 1.034 | $365.44 |
| 2026-09-24 | 62.99% | +4.83 | 1.072 | $373.56 |
| 2026-09-23 | 68.68% | -1.86 | 0.979 | $361.84 |
| 2026-09-22 | 61.61% | +0.34 | 1.099 | $356.09 |
| 2026-09-21 | 64.97% | -0.75 | 1.044 | $344.40 |
| 2026-09-18 | 60.59% | -0.45 | 1.110 | $332.63 |
| 2026-09-17 | 60.88% | -1.41 | 1.106 | $329.94 |
| 2026-09-16 | 63.44% | -0.30 | 1.085 | $323.83 |
| 2025-10-22 | 85.66% | +2.03 | — | $270.89 |
| 2025-10-21 | 85.80% | +0.09 | — | $264.69 |
| 2025-10-20 | 85.65% | +1.51 | — | $273.50 |
| 2025-10-17 | 87.40% | +1.49 | — | $276.46 |
| 2025-10-16 | 89.06% | -0.40 | — | $279.86 |
| 2025-10-15 | 89.26% | +3.65 | 0.823 | $269.96 |
| 2025-10-14 | 88.35% | +1.97 | 0.853 | $247.75 |
| 2025-10-10 | 87.81% | +4.04 | 0.846 | $243.72 |
| 2025-10-09 | 87.99% | +2.17 | 0.828 | $259.78 |
| 2025-10-08 | 88.04% | +5.01 | 0.828 | $254.88 |
| 2025-10-07 | 86.99% | +1.49 | 0.831 | $237.79 |
| 2025-10-06 | 87.31% | +1.84 | 0.825 | $235.34 |
| 2025-10-03 | 85.82% | +1.81 | 0.836 | $233.67 |
| 2025-10-02 | 81.62% | +1.81 | 0.862 | $250.91 |
| 2025-10-01 | 82.21% | +0.44 | 0.856 | $251.69 |
| 2025-09-30 | 79.52% | -0.12 | 0.895 | $246.38 |
| 2025-09-29 | 78.73% | +0.13 | 0.907 | $245.95 |
| 2025-09-26 | 68.81% | +1.11 | 1.034 | $243.79 |
| 2025-09-25 | 70.02% | +1.30 | 1.022 | $244.64 |
| 2025-09-24 | 64.70% | +1.49 | 1.102 | $240.46 |
| 2025-09-23 | 64.23% | +2.77 | 1.109 | $257.64 |
| 2025-09-22 | 62.25% | +0.44 | 1.141 | $254.79 |
| 2025-09-19 | 61.88% | +2.47 | 1.142 | $252.93 |
| 2025-09-18 | 60.46% | +2.59 | 1.153 | $252.04 |
| 2025-09-17 | 63.64% | +0.27 | 1.108 | $247.66 |
| 2025-09-16 | 63.18% | +2.89 | 1.124 | $254.39 |
| 2025-09-15 | 63.25% | +0.05 | 1.118 | $248.99 |
| 2025-09-12 | 61.32% | +0.97 | 1.141 | $241.77 |
| 2025-09-11 | 64.21% | +0.21 | 1.096 | $245.74 |
| 2025-09-10 | 65.59% | +1.13 | 1.091 | $253.03 |
| 2025-09-09 | 63.36% | +2.24 | 1.140 | $244.08 |
| 2025-09-08 | 62.86% | +2.54 | 1.139 | $244.33 |
| 2025-09-05 | 62.47% | +2.58 | — | $242.68 |
| 2025-09-04 | 59.53% | +5.19 | 1.166 | $221.34 |
| 2025-09-03 | 61.42% | +2.95 | 1.137 | $211.87 |
| 2025-09-02 | 62.44% | +3.91 | 1.100 | $200.63 |
| 2025-08-29 | 59.14% | +3.83 | 1.142 | $194.75 |
| 2025-08-28 | 55.16% | +4.96 | 1.179 | $212.33 |
| 2025-08-27 | 54.80% | +2.53 | 1.204 | $202.10 |
| 2025-08-26 | 55.03% | +1.72 | 1.199 | $198.62 |
| 2025-08-25 | 57.89% | +2.23 | 1.154 | $192.91 |
| 2025-08-22 | 55.85% | +2.96 | 1.174 | $188.92 |
| 2025-08-21 | 58.87% | +3.73 | 1.112 | $181.34 |
| 2025-08-20 | 60.19% | +3.60 | 1.099 | $182.90 |
| 2025-08-19 | 58.13% | +2.75 | 1.130 | $184.73 |
| 2025-08-18 | 56.72% | +2.27 | 1.143 | $194.88 |
| 2025-08-15 | 57.21% | +2.36 | 1.140 | $195.48 |
| 2025-08-14 | 58.70% | +1.69 | 1.106 | $196.64 |
| 2025-08-13 | 56.76% | +2.68 | 1.134 | $204.22 |
| 2025-08-12 | 55.65% | +3.88 | 1.135 | $213.45 |
| 2025-08-11 | 57.85% | +3.78 | 1.115 | $204.60 |
| 2025-08-08 | 56.01% | +2.40 | 1.126 | $207.66 |
| 2025-08-07 | 57.89% | +3.59 | 1.112 | $201.21 |
| 2025-08-06 | 57.77% | +4.05 | 1.123 | $198.63 |
| 2025-08-05 | 58.37% | +3.13 | 1.106 | $196.51 |
| 2025-08-04 | 61.25% | +4.50 | 1.051 | $201.45 |
| 2025-08-01 | 59.92% | +1.54 | 1.073 | $194.74 |
| 2025-07-31 | 59.70% | +2.35 | 1.048 | $199.86 |
| 2025-07-30 | 60.12% | +1.56 | 1.058 | $202.41 |
| 2025-07-29 | 60.39% | -0.24 | — | $202.00 |
| 2025-07-28 | 71.25% | +2.03 | — | $173.37 |
| 2025-07-25 | 69.88% | -1.04 | 0.907 | $170.22 |
| 2025-07-24 | 71.70% | +1.63 | 0.887 | $163.98 |
| 2025-07-23 | 75.31% | +2.08 | — | $168.79 |
| 2025-07-22 | 71.33% | +2.89 | 0.887 | $156.91 |
| 2025-07-21 | 72.19% | +1.67 | 0.866 | $163.02 |
| 2025-07-18 | 70.13% | +1.82 | 0.884 | $160.12 |
| 2025-07-17 | 72.32% | +2.82 | 0.839 | $162.89 |
| 2025-07-16 | 74.65% | +1.10 | 0.863 | $160.10 |
| 2025-07-15 | 75.28% | +2.04 | 0.857 | $160.49 |
| 2025-07-14 | 74.13% | +0.87 | 0.862 | $162.24 |
| 2025-07-11 | 75.70% | +2.40 | 0.856 | $161.03 |
| 2025-07-10 | 73.61% | +1.12 | 0.872 | $158.83 |
| 2025-07-09 | 75.97% | +0.83 | 0.852 | $160.90 |
| 2025-07-08 | 72.95% | +3.55 | 0.891 | $155.70 |
| 2025-07-07 | 73.30% | +4.92 | 0.901 | $154.00 |
| 2025-07-03 | 73.02% | +4.33 | — | $159.26 |
| 2025-07-02 | 67.18% | +2.32 | 0.967 | $154.90 |
| 2025-07-01 | 70.82% | +2.45 | — | $148.91 |
| 2025-06-30 | 61.53% | +1.54 | — | $156.11 |
| 2025-06-27 | 59.20% | +4.45 | — | $152.67 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 305 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 305 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Δ 看涨 | 102.09% | 88.43% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 103.55% | 88.73% | 76.90% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 103.74% | 89.01% | 77.64% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 103.92% | 89.14% | 80.95% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 104.06% | 89.70% | 79.37% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 104.24% | 90.02% | 80.66% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 105.33% | 90.04% | 81.15% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 106.36% | 90.94% | 81.71% |
| ATM | 105.87% | 91.22% | 82.10% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 105.83% | 91.18% | 84.23% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 106.21% | 92.23% | 83.76% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 106.51% | 92.96% | 84.75% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 107.29% | 93.70% | 85.74% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 108.01% | 95.00% | 84.36% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 108.31% | 96.20% | 87.17% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 109.16% | 97.87% | 89.01% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 111.29% | 100.25% | — |
| 5Δ 看跌 | — | 104.92% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $223.80 | 105.87% | 108.01% | 103.92% | +4.09 | +0.10 | 29 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $223.95 | 91.22% | 95.00% | 89.14% | +5.87 | +0.85 | 36 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $224.50 | 82.10% | 84.36% | 80.95% | +3.42 | +0.55 | 22 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $224.50 | 81.00% | 83.87% | 77.92% | +5.94 | -0.10 | 21 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $225.20 | 78.71% | 83.99% | 74.84% | +9.15 | +0.70 | 26 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $224.68 | 80.91% | 83.03% | 76.84% | +6.19 | -0.98 | 24 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $226.02 | 76.38% | 79.20% | 73.93% | +5.27 | +0.18 | 29 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $226.21 | 78.34% | 81.05% | 78.37% | +2.68 | +1.37 | 29 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $227.77 | 76.45% | 79.97% | 75.30% | +4.67 | +1.18 | 38 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $229.23 | 76.40% | 78.26% | 77.47% | +0.79 | +1.47 | 42 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $229.74 | 75.58% | 77.21% | 76.80% | +0.41 | +1.43 | 42 |
| 2027-08-20 | 283 | $231.81 | 75.20% | 77.35% | 76.13% | +1.22 | +1.54 | 46 |
| 2027-11-19 | 374 | $234.71 | 74.77% | 77.53% | 75.77% | +1.76 | +1.88 | 55 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $223.80 | 105.87% | $224.83 | 29 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $223.95 | 91.22% | $226.52 | 36 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $224.50 | 82.10% | $228.05 | 22 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $224.50 | 81.00% | $229.39 | 21 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $225.20 | 78.71% | $231.20 | 26 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $224.68 | 80.91% | $232.47 | 24 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $226.02 | 76.38% | $238.26 | 29 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $226.21 | 78.34% | $246.25 | 29 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $227.77 | 76.45% | $252.55 | 38 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $229.23 | 76.40% | $267.27 | 42 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $229.74 | 75.58% | $272.68 | 42 |
| 2027-08-20 | 283 天 | $231.81 | 75.20% | $288.63 | 46 |
| 2027-11-19 | 374 天 | $234.71 | 74.77% | $312.55 | 55 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 78.97%
- 60 天
- 77.01%
- 90 天
- 77.89%
- 180 天
- 76.41%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 305 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 4 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 4 次中 1 次
- 25% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 14.8%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 143.2%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 收盘后 | 16.9% | +12.1% | 0.72× |
| 2026-07-27 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-27 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-28 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-27 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-28 | 收盘后 | 14.0% | +86.8% | 6.22× |
| 2025-04-24 | 收盘后 | 13.9% | +251.5% | 18.05× |
| 2025-01-29 | 收盘后 | 14.3% | +222.3% | 15.54× |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。