股票 · 期权分析
COHR 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $214.66
- 30D ATM IV
- 84.88%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 91
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +10.88
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.932
▲ +0.06 pts 较前一交易日
概览
COHR 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 84.9%,相当于未来一个月约 ±24.3% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 232 个交易日中 91% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 10.88 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 6% 的交易日差距比这更大。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 7%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-03(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±14.2% 的波动,COHR 实际平均波动 177.2%,5 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 84.88%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +10.88
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +1.13
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.932
对应 30 天内约 ±24.3% 的波动，平常一天约 ±5.3%。
高于过去一年中 91% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 10.88 个点。
高于过去一年中 94% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 1.13 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 7%。
高于过去一年中 41% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 232 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 91%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 64%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 93%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 65%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $214.66
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $215.44
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 78.75%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 79.09%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 77.86%
- 使用的到期日数
- 14
- 总未平仓量
- 243,739
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 2.10
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 343 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 84.88% | +10.88 | 0.932 | $214.66 |
| 2026-11-09 | 84.82% | +6.35 | 0.922 | $225.19 |
| 2026-11-06 | 86.49% | +14.61 | 0.929 | $192.81 |
| 2026-11-05 | 96.07% | +13.46 | 0.865 | $169.76 |
| 2026-11-04 | 92.93% | -1.58 | 0.817 | $195.09 |
| 2026-11-03 | 88.64% | +3.76 | 0.870 | $207.49 |
| 2026-11-02 | 90.65% | -0.98 | 0.872 | $199.95 |
| 2026-10-30 | 87.20% | +3.93 | 0.868 | $210.32 |
| 2026-10-29 | 79.31% | +0.35 | 0.907 | $237.22 |
| 2026-10-28 | 79.21% | -0.75 | 0.904 | $239.59 |
| 2026-10-27 | 82.45% | -3.54 | 0.870 | $235.79 |
| 2026-10-26 | 81.29% | +3.45 | 0.880 | $221.50 |
| 2026-10-23 | 80.11% | +2.82 | 0.894 | $209.29 |
| 2026-10-22 | 85.81% | +1.44 | 0.858 | $207.82 |
| 2026-10-21 | 81.98% | +3.98 | 0.849 | $237.53 |
| 2026-10-20 | 81.86% | +2.56 | 0.867 | $231.80 |
| 2026-10-19 | 77.67% | +3.32 | 0.888 | $232.02 |
| 2026-10-16 | 80.26% | +2.78 | 0.878 | $232.90 |
| 2026-10-15 | 78.00% | +0.99 | 0.878 | $250.60 |
| 2026-10-14 | 77.91% | +1.61 | 0.883 | $263.32 |
| 2026-10-13 | 76.81% | +0.23 | 0.892 | $289.98 |
| 2026-10-09 | 72.75% | +0.61 | 0.936 | $312.62 |
| 2026-10-08 | 75.79% | -2.74 | 0.913 | $302.35 |
| 2026-10-07 | 76.31% | -4.41 | 0.915 | $334.56 |
| 2026-10-06 | 73.66% | -2.75 | 0.944 | $338.36 |
| 2026-10-05 | 71.72% | +1.64 | 0.983 | $333.64 |
| 2026-10-02 | 72.12% | -0.94 | 1.007 | $337.04 |
| 2026-10-01 | 73.57% | -1.45 | 0.992 | $319.19 |
| 2026-09-30 | 70.25% | -1.61 | 1.026 | $287.81 |
| 2026-09-29 | 73.45% | -0.58 | 0.985 | $292.21 |
| 2026-09-28 | 71.80% | -3.32 | 1.024 | $282.45 |
| 2026-09-25 | 70.67% | +0.00 | 1.043 | $295.83 |
| 2026-09-24 | 73.64% | -3.65 | 1.003 | $290.61 |
| 2026-09-23 | 74.31% | -2.35 | 1.026 | $300.60 |
| 2026-09-22 | 73.72% | -3.04 | 1.035 | $310.39 |
| 2026-09-21 | 74.65% | -3.29 | 1.033 | $321.52 |
| 2026-09-18 | 73.15% | -0.15 | 1.020 | $317.36 |
| 2026-09-17 | 71.05% | +0.41 | 1.053 | $295.98 |
| 2026-09-16 | 75.25% | -0.08 | 1.002 | $289.93 |
| 2026-09-15 | 70.40% | +0.48 | 1.025 | $271.17 |
| 2026-09-14 | 71.77% | +0.25 | 1.027 | $266.50 |
| 2026-09-11 | 73.41% | -0.57 | 1.034 | $305.37 |
| 2026-09-10 | 72.61% | +5.38 | 1.076 | $293.17 |
| 2026-09-09 | 75.84% | -5.03 | 1.032 | $303.48 |
| 2026-09-08 | 76.53% | +3.65 | 1.021 | $301.88 |
| 2026-09-04 | 67.07% | -1.42 | 1.121 | $281.86 |
| 2026-09-03 | 67.93% | -3.56 | 1.044 | $264.41 |
| 2026-09-02 | 66.51% | -2.18 | 1.058 | $268.64 |
| 2026-09-01 | 70.62% | -1.65 | 1.041 | $272.03 |
| 2026-08-31 | 70.12% | -1.72 | 1.105 | $277.83 |
| 2026-08-28 | 70.73% | -3.94 | 1.058 | $279.20 |
| 2026-08-27 | 72.95% | +0.90 | 1.092 | $295.39 |
| 2026-08-26 | 76.03% | -1.91 | 1.046 | $294.37 |
| 2026-08-25 | 78.61% | +3.32 | 1.003 | $288.14 |
| 2026-08-24 | 76.06% | -4.43 | 1.070 | $275.49 |
| 2026-08-21 | 77.79% | -2.54 | 1.045 | $289.52 |
| 2026-08-20 | 74.60% | +0.77 | 1.062 | $290.03 |
| 2026-08-19 | 76.17% | -1.76 | 1.060 | $287.47 |
| 2025-10-22 | 74.00% | +4.96 | 0.805 | $115.37 |
| 2025-10-21 | 71.53% | +4.72 | 0.835 | $120.79 |
| 2025-10-20 | 74.37% | +4.84 | — | $120.20 |
| 2025-10-17 | 73.10% | +4.69 | 0.859 | $116.35 |
| 2025-10-16 | 86.68% | +2.62 | 0.756 | $115.96 |
| 2025-10-15 | 79.55% | +4.37 | 0.810 | $110.41 |
| 2025-10-14 | 75.68% | +2.44 | 0.839 | $109.37 |
| 2025-10-10 | 71.40% | +4.34 | 0.882 | $111.10 |
| 2025-10-09 | 78.30% | +3.81 | 0.784 | $122.35 |
| 2025-10-08 | 75.45% | +7.03 | 0.817 | $116.67 |
| 2025-10-07 | 66.51% | +3.80 | 0.919 | $113.56 |
| 2025-10-06 | 69.73% | -1.09 | 0.881 | $114.77 |
| 2025-10-03 | 59.57% | +3.28 | 0.995 | $113.58 |
| 2025-10-02 | 56.22% | -0.32 | 1.032 | $112.79 |
| 2025-10-01 | 57.10% | +0.36 | 1.007 | $114.65 |
| 2025-09-30 | 59.78% | +0.49 | 0.961 | $107.72 |
| 2025-09-29 | 55.03% | +0.48 | 1.038 | $107.97 |
| 2025-09-26 | 52.79% | +0.81 | 1.081 | $106.99 |
| 2025-09-25 | 58.08% | +3.56 | 1.004 | $106.57 |
| 2025-09-24 | 59.18% | +2.39 | 0.997 | $106.52 |
| 2025-09-23 | 57.36% | +0.21 | 1.004 | $109.29 |
| 2025-09-22 | 53.65% | +0.22 | 1.054 | $114.60 |
| 2025-09-19 | 50.50% | +0.18 | 1.107 | $109.11 |
| 2025-09-18 | 50.56% | -0.20 | 1.060 | $108.05 |
| 2025-09-17 | 49.46% | +0.47 | 1.139 | $103.41 |
| 2025-09-16 | — | — | — | $104.47 |
| 2025-09-15 | 50.23% | -0.00 | 1.052 | $106.34 |
| 2025-09-12 | 47.13% | -0.43 | 1.107 | $102.99 |
| 2025-09-11 | 48.16% | -0.52 | 1.071 | $103.51 |
| 2025-09-10 | 47.81% | +0.45 | 1.090 | $103.49 |
| 2025-09-09 | — | — | — | $99.22 |
| 2025-09-08 | — | — | — | $98.67 |
| 2025-09-05 | — | — | — | $97.84 |
| 2025-09-04 | — | — | — | $95.62 |
| 2025-09-03 | — | — | — | $88.47 |
| 2025-09-02 | 47.34% | +3.21 | 1.043 | $87.80 |
| 2025-08-29 | — | — | — | $90.47 |
| 2025-08-28 | 43.74% | +1.86 | 1.088 | $95.20 |
| 2025-08-27 | 45.22% | +2.43 | 1.054 | $90.71 |
| 2025-08-26 | 48.72% | +1.93 | 1.016 | $91.58 |
| 2025-08-25 | 45.69% | +1.89 | 1.078 | $90.50 |
| 2025-08-22 | 46.85% | +6.28 | 1.016 | $89.90 |
| 2025-08-21 | 46.18% | +3.67 | 1.029 | $86.60 |
| 2025-08-20 | 45.91% | +3.37 | 1.050 | $86.55 |
| 2025-08-19 | 45.60% | +2.57 | 1.040 | $87.76 |
| 2025-08-18 | 45.85% | +2.42 | 1.027 | $90.49 |
| 2025-08-15 | 45.68% | +1.96 | 1.044 | $93.40 |
| 2025-08-14 | — | — | — | $91.65 |
| 2025-08-13 | 58.88% | +1.56 | 0.834 | $114.01 |
| 2025-08-12 | 59.01% | +2.96 | 0.854 | $116.56 |
| 2025-08-11 | — | — | — | $113.60 |
| 2025-08-08 | 52.27% | +3.42 | 1.003 | $115.44 |
| 2025-08-07 | 61.41% | +2.19 | 0.859 | $113.82 |
| 2025-08-06 | 62.91% | +2.72 | 0.836 | $107.15 |
| 2025-08-05 | 62.42% | +3.27 | 0.837 | $105.60 |
| 2025-08-04 | 60.65% | -0.60 | 0.845 | $106.74 |
| 2025-08-01 | 63.86% | +4.36 | 0.827 | $102.79 |
| 2025-07-31 | 59.31% | +3.68 | 0.868 | $107.60 |
| 2025-07-30 | 58.62% | +1.56 | 0.856 | $107.23 |
| 2025-07-29 | 59.08% | -3.34 | 0.844 | $106.98 |
| 2025-07-28 | 59.35% | -2.79 | 0.815 | $104.30 |
| 2025-07-25 | 56.75% | +1.00 | 0.857 | $100.14 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 343 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 343 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Δ 看涨 | 114.35% | 96.91% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 111.55% | 95.97% | 87.98% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 110.13% | 96.09% | 87.22% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 108.11% | 98.43% | 87.84% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 113.64% | 97.36% | 89.30% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 110.67% | 98.36% | 90.16% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 111.04% | 99.84% | 90.05% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 112.31% | 101.60% | 91.59% |
| ATM | 110.51% | 98.18% | 90.48% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 114.21% | 102.42% | 90.13% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 114.04% | 102.76% | 91.63% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 116.41% | 102.42% | 92.23% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 115.91% | 103.87% | 94.31% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 120.88% | 104.82% | 93.91% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 125.01% | 106.30% | 95.09% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 122.92% | 108.31% | 98.18% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 122.86% | 113.79% | — |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 125.27% | — | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $214.05 | 110.51% | 120.88% | 108.11% | +12.77 | +3.99 | 23 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $214.55 | 98.18% | 104.82% | 98.43% | +6.39 | +3.44 | 37 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $214.00 | 90.48% | 93.91% | 87.84% | +6.07 | +0.39 | 21 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $214.75 | 88.08% | 91.64% | 83.77% | +7.86 | -0.38 | 24 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $215.55 | 84.46% | 91.42% | 80.14% | +11.28 | +1.33 | 23 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $214.67 | 83.05% | 88.17% | 80.46% | +7.71 | +1.27 | 27 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $214.20 | 83.10% | 85.46% | 81.31% | +4.15 | +0.28 | 23 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $215.62 | 77.62% | 81.49% | 76.78% | +4.70 | +1.51 | 31 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $216.16 | 79.53% | 82.96% | 79.95% | +3.01 | +1.93 | 33 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $217.06 | 78.06% | 79.32% | 76.88% | +2.44 | +0.04 | 44 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $218.52 | 76.70% | 79.89% | 73.88% | +6.02 | +0.19 | 42 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $217.60 | 78.35% | 79.04% | 77.89% | +1.15 | +0.12 | 43 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $219.08 | 76.35% | 78.37% | 76.41% | +1.95 | +1.04 | 47 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $221.61 | 76.14% | 77.93% | 74.36% | +3.57 | +0.01 | 48 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
14 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $214.05 | 110.51% | $215.13 | 23 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $214.55 | 98.18% | $217.40 | 37 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $214.00 | 90.48% | $218.12 | 21 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $214.75 | 88.08% | $220.30 | 24 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $215.55 | 84.46% | $222.18 | 23 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $214.67 | 83.05% | $222.52 | 27 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $214.20 | 83.10% | $223.30 | 23 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $215.62 | 77.62% | $227.69 | 31 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $216.16 | 79.53% | $235.92 | 33 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $217.06 | 78.06% | $241.73 | 44 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $218.52 | 76.70% | $247.99 | 42 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $217.60 | 78.35% | $255.72 | 43 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $219.08 | 76.35% | $260.95 | 47 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $221.61 | 76.14% | $283.69 | 48 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 84.88%
- 60 天
- 78.75%
- 90 天
- 79.09%
- 180 天
- 77.86%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 343 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 1 次
- 20% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 14.2%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 177.2%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2026-11-04 | 收盘后 | 13.6% | -13.0% | 0.96× |
| 2026-08-12 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-13 | 收盘后 | 12.8% | +152.1% | 11.87× |
| 2025-05-07 | 收盘后 | 12.2% | +312.9% | 25.59× |
| 2025-02-05 | 收盘后 | 18.9% | +219.1% | 11.59× |
| 2024-11-06 | 收盘后 | 13.6% | +189.1% | 13.93× |
| 2024-08-15 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。