股票 · 期权分析
COIN 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $132.13
- 30D ATM IV
- 70.23%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 75
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +4.98
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.967
▲ +2.04 pts 较前一交易日
概览
COIN 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 70.2%,相当于未来一个月约 ±20.1% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 75% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 4.98 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 3%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-28(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±9.8% 的波动,COIN 实际平均波动 27.0%,6 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 70.23%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +4.98
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- -0.60
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.967
对应 30 天内约 ±20.1% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.4%。
高于过去一年中 75% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 4.98 个点。
高于过去一年中 89% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值低 0.60 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 3%。
高于过去一年中 32% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 75%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 46%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 63%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 44%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $132.13
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $132.17
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 67.18%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 67.93%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 68.37%
- 使用的到期日数
- 14
- 总未平仓量
- 703,072
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.04
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 343 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 70.23% | +4.98 | 0.967 | $132.13 |
| 2026-11-09 | 68.19% | +5.25 | 0.986 | $136.10 |
| 2026-11-06 | 69.73% | +6.64 | 0.982 | $134.76 |
| 2026-11-05 | 72.60% | +7.01 | 0.966 | $136.82 |
| 2026-11-04 | 65.18% | +0.19 | 1.000 | $151.50 |
| 2026-11-03 | 69.17% | +3.97 | 0.973 | $145.45 |
| 2026-11-02 | 71.18% | +4.04 | 0.969 | $137.83 |
| 2026-10-30 | 67.61% | +3.52 | 0.977 | $143.54 |
| 2026-10-29 | 68.43% | +1.11 | 0.936 | $160.59 |
| 2026-10-28 | 65.44% | +1.61 | 0.976 | $162.32 |
| 2026-10-27 | 69.22% | -1.87 | 0.923 | $161.09 |
| 2026-10-26 | 70.13% | +0.04 | 0.924 | $159.60 |
| 2026-10-23 | 70.15% | +0.55 | 0.919 | $164.45 |
| 2026-10-22 | 71.16% | -0.22 | 0.912 | $169.09 |
| 2026-10-21 | 68.50% | +0.28 | 0.928 | $177.08 |
| 2026-10-20 | 69.21% | +0.75 | 0.916 | $170.85 |
| 2026-10-19 | 69.65% | +0.73 | 0.907 | $168.45 |
| 2026-10-16 | 74.30% | +2.35 | 0.881 | $173.16 |
| 2026-10-15 | 69.29% | -0.39 | 0.915 | $183.81 |
| 2026-10-14 | 69.08% | -0.93 | 0.915 | $172.89 |
| 2026-10-13 | 65.72% | -1.59 | 0.939 | $181.79 |
| 2026-10-09 | 64.56% | -1.62 | 0.971 | $179.39 |
| 2026-10-08 | 66.64% | -2.29 | 0.937 | $172.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | 62.96% | +2.14 | 0.962 | $178.45 |
| 2026-10-06 | 64.42% | -2.07 | 0.969 | $185.74 |
| 2026-10-05 | 63.75% | +3.02 | 0.979 | $188.22 |
| 2026-10-02 | 61.55% | -3.76 | 1.019 | $183.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | 64.09% | -0.38 | 1.000 | $189.29 |
| 2026-09-30 | 65.98% | -6.00 | 0.974 | $186.41 |
| 2026-09-29 | 67.85% | -5.67 | 0.952 | $190.02 |
| 2026-09-28 | 64.97% | -3.79 | 1.004 | $191.79 |
| 2026-09-25 | 63.19% | -3.57 | 1.046 | $195.11 |
| 2026-09-24 | 63.75% | -3.61 | 1.051 | $199.21 |
| 2026-09-23 | 64.45% | -4.26 | 1.041 | $198.13 |
| 2026-09-22 | 66.58% | -4.63 | 1.026 | $201.07 |
| 2026-09-21 | 66.65% | -3.21 | 1.047 | $201.05 |
| 2026-09-18 | 64.06% | -4.65 | 1.087 | $194.25 |
| 2026-09-17 | 60.79% | -1.36 | 1.114 | $173.97 |
| 2026-09-16 | 63.41% | -0.87 | 1.068 | $164.51 |
| 2026-09-15 | 65.24% | -2.69 | 1.073 | $172.11 |
| 2026-09-14 | 69.52% | -2.87 | 1.033 | $191.45 |
| 2026-09-11 | 65.88% | -4.82 | 1.076 | $175.26 |
| 2026-09-10 | 64.39% | -5.10 | 1.083 | $172.28 |
| 2026-09-09 | 66.75% | -4.97 | 1.071 | $174.72 |
| 2026-09-08 | 68.55% | -4.98 | 1.054 | $178.94 |
| 2026-09-04 | 64.81% | -3.80 | 1.092 | $184.64 |
| 2026-09-03 | 66.63% | -4.20 | 1.060 | $192.70 |
| 2026-09-02 | 62.13% | -1.92 | 1.109 | $174.96 |
| 2026-09-01 | 62.88% | -4.53 | 1.103 | $176.82 |
| 2026-08-31 | 65.22% | -2.62 | 1.081 | $188.12 |
| 2026-08-28 | 60.61% | -4.11 | 1.133 | $178.64 |
| 2026-08-27 | 66.24% | -3.41 | 1.062 | $190.72 |
| 2026-08-26 | 63.62% | -9.73 | 1.146 | $181.78 |
| 2026-08-25 | 67.09% | -2.76 | 1.066 | $187.16 |
| 2026-08-24 | 65.64% | -3.80 | 1.093 | $179.48 |
| 2026-08-21 | 68.91% | -6.97 | 1.057 | $186.49 |
| 2026-08-20 | 70.53% | -7.02 | 1.034 | $172.35 |
| 2026-08-19 | 66.88% | -5.44 | 1.054 | $160.20 |
| 2025-10-22 | 69.82% | -0.22 | 0.921 | $320.33 |
| 2025-10-21 | 67.34% | -2.08 | 0.939 | $338.62 |
| 2025-10-20 | 68.75% | -2.05 | 0.927 | $343.78 |
| 2025-10-17 | 71.79% | +0.64 | 0.913 | $336.02 |
| 2025-10-16 | 75.22% | +1.19 | 0.898 | $330.25 |
| 2025-10-15 | 70.48% | +0.70 | 0.930 | $336.30 |
| 2025-10-14 | 72.72% | +1.13 | 0.917 | $341.55 |
| 2025-10-10 | 73.30% | +3.32 | 0.920 | $357.01 |
| 2025-10-09 | 69.95% | -3.19 | 0.943 | $387.00 |
| 2025-10-08 | 71.04% | -4.39 | 0.930 | $387.27 |
| 2025-10-07 | 69.42% | -3.54 | 0.953 | $375.78 |
| 2025-10-06 | 71.34% | -5.59 | 0.945 | $386.07 |
| 2025-10-03 | 67.65% | -4.16 | 0.971 | $380.02 |
| 2025-10-02 | 66.85% | -11.04 | 0.993 | $372.07 |
| 2025-10-01 | 67.52% | -6.99 | 0.950 | $346.17 |
| 2025-09-30 | 59.30% | +1.72 | 1.063 | $337.49 |
| 2025-09-29 | 59.10% | -0.75 | 1.060 | $333.99 |
| 2025-09-26 | 56.99% | -2.35 | 1.063 | $312.59 |
| 2025-09-25 | 59.60% | -2.43 | 1.047 | $306.69 |
| 2025-09-24 | 56.61% | -3.10 | 1.089 | $321.77 |
| 2025-09-23 | 58.81% | -3.44 | 1.051 | $320.07 |
| 2025-09-22 | 57.21% | -3.82 | 1.086 | $331.95 |
| 2025-09-19 | 56.97% | -4.62 | 1.091 | $342.46 |
| 2025-09-18 | 57.66% | -5.34 | 1.075 | $343.13 |
| 2025-09-17 | 54.60% | -0.80 | 1.075 | $320.56 |
| 2025-09-16 | 54.37% | -1.75 | 1.085 | $327.91 |
| 2025-09-15 | 54.68% | -2.82 | 1.074 | $327.02 |
| 2025-09-12 | 52.89% | -1.47 | 1.084 | $323.04 |
| 2025-09-11 | 50.31% | +1.53 | 1.116 | $323.95 |
| 2025-09-10 | 50.31% | +0.45 | 1.119 | $315.34 |
| 2025-09-09 | 51.93% | -1.13 | 1.100 | $318.78 |
| 2025-09-08 | 50.30% | +0.74 | 1.098 | $302.20 |
| 2025-09-05 | 52.45% | +1.57 | 1.075 | $299.07 |
| 2025-09-04 | 50.04% | +1.37 | 1.108 | $306.80 |
| 2025-09-03 | 51.99% | +1.27 | 1.085 | $302.31 |
| 2025-09-02 | 53.54% | +0.78 | 1.078 | $303.56 |
| 2025-08-29 | 50.47% | +2.53 | 1.109 | $304.54 |
| 2025-08-28 | 49.46% | +3.70 | 1.149 | $308.47 |
| 2025-08-27 | 52.97% | -0.73 | 1.088 | $308.97 |
| 2025-08-26 | 55.23% | -1.99 | 1.072 | $308.48 |
| 2025-08-25 | 54.88% | -0.60 | 1.064 | $306.00 |
| 2025-08-22 | 53.49% | -0.89 | 1.089 | $319.85 |
| 2025-08-21 | 55.29% | +1.05 | 1.054 | $300.28 |
| 2025-08-20 | 55.57% | +1.00 | 1.062 | $304.39 |
| 2025-08-19 | 56.70% | +1.56 | 1.047 | $302.07 |
| 2025-08-18 | 53.68% | -3.42 | 1.079 | $320.73 |
| 2025-08-15 | 55.19% | -1.17 | 1.070 | $317.55 |
| 2025-08-14 | 59.54% | -2.35 | 1.020 | $324.89 |
| 2025-08-13 | 57.47% | -3.11 | 1.060 | $327.01 |
| 2025-08-12 | 54.96% | -4.20 | 1.065 | $322.62 |
| 2025-08-11 | 55.49% | -5.17 | 1.085 | $319.62 |
| 2025-08-08 | 53.58% | +0.03 | 1.093 | $310.54 |
| 2025-08-07 | 55.34% | +1.12 | 1.053 | $310.79 |
| 2025-08-06 | 55.43% | +0.61 | 1.050 | $303.58 |
| 2025-08-05 | 57.43% | +2.57 | 1.029 | $297.99 |
| 2025-08-04 | 55.58% | +2.94 | 1.042 | $318.17 |
| 2025-08-01 | 59.60% | +3.79 | 0.991 | $314.69 |
| 2025-07-31 | 60.52% | +1.01 | 0.985 | $377.76 |
| 2025-07-30 | 62.27% | +0.83 | 0.956 | $377.48 |
| 2025-07-29 | 63.22% | +1.69 | 0.946 | $371.44 |
| 2025-07-28 | 62.85% | +0.16 | 0.964 | $379.49 |
| 2025-07-25 | 59.85% | -2.07 | 0.986 | $391.66 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 343 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 343 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 85.50% | 78.30% | 69.91% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 82.86% | 74.45% | 67.53% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 82.94% | 73.00% | 66.62% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 82.84% | 72.66% | 66.51% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 82.65% | 72.55% | 66.78% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 82.81% | 72.55% | 67.02% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 82.96% | 73.05% | 67.28% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 83.40% | 73.06% | 67.46% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 83.87% | 73.42% | 67.80% |
| ATM | 83.16% | 73.57% | 68.18% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 83.66% | 74.25% | 69.08% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 85.45% | 74.76% | 69.60% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 85.42% | 75.32% | 70.05% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 85.83% | 76.34% | 70.67% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 86.41% | 76.75% | 71.77% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 87.22% | 78.01% | 72.50% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 88.39% | 79.79% | 73.73% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 91.33% | 82.42% | 76.56% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 96.36% | 89.28% | 81.72% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $132.00 | 83.16% | 86.41% | 82.65% | +3.77 | +1.37 | 47 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $132.18 | 73.57% | 76.75% | 72.55% | +4.20 | +1.09 | 52 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $132.35 | 68.18% | 71.77% | 66.78% | +4.99 | +1.09 | 43 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $132.38 | 69.26% | 72.79% | 67.32% | +5.48 | +0.80 | 20 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $132.13 | 70.36% | 72.04% | 67.12% | +4.92 | -0.78 | 22 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $132.74 | 68.95% | 72.37% | 67.00% | +5.37 | +0.74 | 38 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $132.56 | 67.86% | 71.31% | 66.92% | +4.40 | +1.25 | 26 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $133.19 | 67.01% | 70.69% | 64.84% | +5.85 | +0.76 | 37 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $133.56 | 68.20% | 71.63% | 67.57% | +4.07 | +1.40 | 36 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $134.16 | 68.28% | 71.59% | 67.20% | +4.38 | +1.12 | 40 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $134.52 | 68.08% | 70.69% | 66.46% | +4.23 | +0.49 | 47 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $135.26 | 68.49% | 71.44% | 66.95% | +4.49 | +0.70 | 53 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $135.56 | 68.11% | 70.42% | 66.67% | +3.75 | +0.44 | 40 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $136.84 | 67.83% | 69.95% | 66.99% | +2.97 | +0.64 | 39 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
14 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $132.00 | 83.16% | $132.38 | 47 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $132.18 | 73.57% | $133.16 | 52 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $132.35 | 68.18% | $133.79 | 43 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $132.38 | 69.26% | $134.49 | 20 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $132.13 | 70.36% | $134.94 | 22 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $132.74 | 68.95% | $136.07 | 38 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $132.56 | 67.86% | $136.29 | 26 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $133.19 | 67.01% | $138.70 | 37 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $133.56 | 68.20% | $142.44 | 36 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $134.16 | 68.28% | $145.68 | 40 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $134.52 | 68.08% | $148.62 | 47 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $135.26 | 68.49% | $153.02 | 53 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $135.56 | 68.11% | $155.80 | 40 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $136.84 | 67.83% | $166.47 | 39 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 70.23%
- 60 天
- 67.18%
- 90 天
- 67.93%
- 180 天
- 68.37%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 343 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 1 次
- 17% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 9.8%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 27.0%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 收盘后 | 9.3% | -10.6% | 1.14× |
| 2026-10-28 | 未说明时间 | 10.2% | -1.1% | 0.10× |
| 2026-07-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-12 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-31 | 收盘后 | 8.0% | -57.6% | 7.18× |
| 2025-05-08 | 收盘后 | 8.4% | -22.4% | 2.67× |
| 2025-02-13 | 收盘后 | 11.7% | -46.3% | 3.97× |
| 2024-10-30 | 收盘后 | 11.1% | -24.3% | 2.20× |
| 2024-08-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-02 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-15 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-02 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。