股票 · 期权分析
COP 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $135.59
- 30D ATM IV
- 33.64%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 78
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +0.98
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.965
▼ -0.15 pts 较前一交易日
概览
COP 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 33.6%,相当于未来一个月约 ±9.6% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 251 个交易日中 78% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 0.98 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 3%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-04(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±4.0% 的波动,COP 实际平均波动 1.9%,5 次中有 4 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 33.64%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +0.98
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.17
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.965
对应 30 天内约 ±9.6% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.1%。
高于过去一年中 78% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 0.98 个点。
高于过去一年中 20% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.17 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 3%。
高于过去一年中 35% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 251 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 78%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 23%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 84%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 26%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $135.59
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $135.17
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 32.03%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 32.47%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 33.53%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 205,468
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.44
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 348 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 33.64% | +0.98 | 0.965 | $135.59 |
| 2026-11-09 | 33.79% | +1.39 | 0.976 | $134.47 |
| 2026-11-06 | 34.88% | +3.74 | 0.974 | $136.27 |
| 2026-11-05 | 37.11% | +4.94 | 0.921 | $135.46 |
| 2026-11-04 | 38.77% | +0.96 | 0.877 | $136.94 |
| 2026-11-03 | 37.61% | +3.19 | 0.914 | $144.40 |
| 2026-11-02 | 37.92% | +0.04 | 0.903 | $146.84 |
| 2026-10-30 | 37.07% | +0.56 | 0.912 | $154.03 |
| 2026-10-29 | 35.72% | +1.10 | 0.928 | $150.03 |
| 2026-10-28 | 35.82% | +2.48 | 0.930 | $149.06 |
| 2026-10-27 | 36.60% | +0.85 | 0.911 | $147.96 |
| 2026-10-26 | 37.08% | +2.67 | 0.928 | $151.37 |
| 2026-10-23 | 36.99% | +0.06 | 0.906 | $150.80 |
| 2026-10-22 | 36.38% | +0.57 | 0.896 | $145.63 |
| 2026-10-21 | 34.37% | -0.25 | 0.914 | $145.67 |
| 2026-10-20 | 34.56% | +3.73 | 0.920 | $145.95 |
| 2026-10-19 | 34.10% | +0.51 | 0.925 | $145.24 |
| 2026-10-16 | 34.95% | +0.08 | 0.901 | $146.51 |
| 2026-10-15 | 34.57% | -0.26 | 0.902 | $141.73 |
| 2026-10-14 | 33.87% | +0.56 | 0.921 | $142.34 |
| 2026-10-13 | 33.47% | +0.15 | 0.922 | $140.90 |
| 2026-10-09 | 31.70% | +0.55 | 0.974 | $134.10 |
| 2026-10-08 | 34.47% | -1.42 | 0.903 | $134.19 |
| 2026-10-07 | 31.33% | +1.08 | 0.992 | $129.84 |
| 2026-10-06 | 33.07% | -0.95 | 0.941 | $129.35 |
| 2026-10-05 | 32.40% | -0.54 | 0.966 | $128.40 |
| 2026-10-02 | 31.45% | +0.37 | 1.008 | $126.75 |
| 2026-10-01 | 30.90% | +0.02 | 1.024 | $127.06 |
| 2026-09-30 | 32.56% | +1.11 | 0.990 | $125.15 |
| 2026-09-29 | 32.15% | +2.42 | 0.993 | $125.44 |
| 2026-09-28 | 32.12% | -0.18 | 0.992 | $126.04 |
| 2026-09-25 | 30.69% | +2.42 | 1.037 | $127.30 |
| 2026-09-24 | 31.88% | +0.06 | 1.009 | $129.34 |
| 2026-09-23 | 31.02% | +0.24 | 1.035 | $128.09 |
| 2026-09-22 | 31.10% | +1.06 | 1.038 | $125.27 |
| 2026-09-21 | 31.19% | -0.18 | 1.031 | $127.53 |
| 2026-09-18 | 30.08% | +0.59 | 1.078 | $131.83 |
| 2026-09-17 | 30.89% | +0.63 | 1.055 | $133.19 |
| 2026-09-16 | 32.08% | +0.52 | 1.038 | $132.54 |
| 2026-09-15 | 33.20% | +0.43 | 1.032 | $141.22 |
| 2026-09-14 | — | — | — | $136.67 |
| 2026-09-11 | 30.67% | +0.24 | 1.059 | $137.35 |
| 2026-09-10 | 30.95% | -0.79 | 1.081 | $137.04 |
| 2026-09-09 | 31.43% | +0.12 | 1.042 | $136.53 |
| 2026-09-08 | 31.30% | +0.23 | 1.034 | $135.04 |
| 2026-09-04 | 28.71% | -0.58 | 1.095 | $134.26 |
| 2026-09-03 | 28.89% | +0.83 | 1.089 | $135.72 |
| 2026-09-02 | 29.72% | +0.22 | 1.068 | $137.20 |
| 2026-09-01 | 30.58% | +0.02 | 1.063 | $136.19 |
| 2026-08-31 | 28.69% | +0.82 | 1.075 | $132.49 |
| 2026-08-28 | 28.37% | +0.95 | 1.092 | $130.35 |
| 2026-08-27 | 28.85% | +0.99 | 1.069 | $129.52 |
| 2026-08-26 | 29.67% | +1.41 | 1.040 | $130.61 |
| 2026-08-25 | 29.59% | +0.01 | 1.085 | $131.84 |
| 2026-08-24 | 29.72% | +0.39 | 1.079 | $133.35 |
| 2026-08-21 | 30.28% | +0.17 | 1.062 | $134.87 |
| 2026-08-20 | 30.29% | -0.47 | 1.060 | $134.89 |
| 2026-08-19 | 28.89% | +0.73 | 1.072 | $130.58 |
| 2026-08-18 | 29.31% | +0.63 | 1.062 | $129.72 |
| 2026-08-17 | 29.05% | +1.31 | 1.059 | $127.56 |
| 2025-10-22 | 32.45% | +3.75 | 0.904 | $87.41 |
| 2025-10-21 | 31.87% | +2.85 | 0.941 | $86.41 |
| 2025-10-20 | 32.32% | +3.29 | 0.923 | $87.06 |
| 2025-10-17 | 32.62% | +3.00 | 0.932 | $86.48 |
| 2025-10-16 | 34.44% | +4.46 | 0.894 | $86.91 |
| 2025-10-15 | 32.97% | +3.49 | 0.919 | $87.74 |
| 2025-10-14 | 33.55% | +1.88 | 0.899 | $88.17 |
| 2025-10-10 | 34.40% | +2.01 | 0.923 | $87.64 |
| 2025-10-09 | 32.45% | +2.51 | 0.927 | $91.95 |
| 2025-10-08 | 31.21% | +0.94 | 0.953 | $93.75 |
| 2025-10-07 | 30.79% | +2.60 | 0.963 | $95.23 |
| 2025-10-06 | 30.53% | +1.61 | 0.964 | $94.91 |
| 2025-10-03 | 29.78% | +2.24 | 0.994 | $94.16 |
| 2025-10-02 | 29.69% | +3.18 | 1.002 | $93.38 |
| 2025-10-01 | 28.93% | +2.73 | 1.017 | $95.46 |
| 2025-09-30 | 28.28% | +3.74 | 1.034 | $94.59 |
| 2025-09-29 | 28.17% | +0.92 | 1.027 | $95.85 |
| 2025-09-26 | 27.48% | +1.86 | 1.034 | $98.48 |
| 2025-09-25 | 29.34% | +2.02 | 1.015 | $96.81 |
| 2025-09-24 | 29.20% | +2.08 | 1.010 | $95.63 |
| 2025-09-23 | 29.69% | +1.40 | 1.001 | $93.47 |
| 2025-09-22 | 28.14% | +2.67 | 1.043 | $92.01 |
| 2025-09-19 | 28.44% | +2.98 | 1.028 | $91.92 |
| 2025-09-18 | 28.96% | +2.20 | 1.006 | $93.48 |
| 2025-09-17 | 28.50% | +1.61 | 0.987 | $93.82 |
| 2025-09-16 | 28.23% | +1.70 | 1.008 | $94.54 |
| 2025-09-15 | 28.48% | +2.74 | 1.000 | $92.33 |
| 2025-09-12 | 27.38% | +2.69 | 1.030 | $92.43 |
| 2025-09-11 | 27.61% | +1.55 | 1.022 | $94.13 |
| 2025-09-10 | 27.93% | +4.16 | 1.018 | $94.32 |
| 2025-09-09 | 27.29% | +2.86 | 1.054 | $91.86 |
| 2025-09-08 | 26.57% | +3.12 | 1.059 | $91.40 |
| 2025-09-05 | 26.98% | +3.70 | 1.037 | $92.95 |
| 2025-09-04 | 26.18% | +2.15 | 1.048 | $95.77 |
| 2025-09-03 | 26.65% | +2.72 | 1.050 | $94.65 |
| 2025-09-02 | 26.24% | +2.72 | 1.048 | $98.99 |
| 2025-08-29 | 24.21% | +3.40 | 1.120 | $98.97 |
| 2025-08-28 | 25.02% | +2.66 | 1.085 | $98.45 |
| 2025-08-27 | 25.51% | +4.48 | 1.072 | $97.90 |
| 2025-08-26 | 25.09% | +3.72 | 1.118 | $97.05 |
| 2025-08-25 | 25.19% | +2.42 | 1.113 | $98.18 |
| 2025-08-22 | 24.72% | +3.72 | 1.096 | $96.78 |
| 2025-08-21 | 27.44% | +3.48 | 1.040 | $94.78 |
| 2025-08-20 | 26.97% | +2.92 | 1.016 | $94.89 |
| 2025-08-19 | 27.16% | +3.08 | 1.037 | $93.76 |
| 2025-08-18 | 26.86% | +2.92 | 1.047 | $94.00 |
| 2025-08-15 | 26.94% | +2.53 | 1.043 | $95.33 |
| 2025-08-14 | 27.28% | +2.84 | 1.048 | $95.65 |
| 2025-08-13 | 26.01% | +3.19 | 1.080 | $95.88 |
| 2025-08-12 | 28.00% | +2.67 | 1.018 | $94.59 |
| 2025-08-11 | 27.53% | +4.14 | 1.050 | $93.53 |
| 2025-08-08 | 26.72% | +3.50 | 1.080 | $93.91 |
| 2025-08-07 | 27.91% | +2.75 | 1.035 | $92.60 |
| 2025-08-06 | 30.83% | +3.41 | 0.968 | $93.11 |
| 2025-08-05 | 28.84% | -1.20 | 1.025 | $93.20 |
| 2025-08-04 | 31.21% | +3.48 | 0.960 | $92.85 |
| 2025-08-01 | 30.01% | +6.20 | 1.013 | $92.76 |
| 2025-07-31 | 29.87% | +4.27 | 0.984 | $95.34 |
| 2025-07-30 | 29.81% | +1.78 | 0.969 | $96.67 |
| 2025-07-29 | 28.55% | +3.59 | 0.991 | $97.99 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 348 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | — | 34.23% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | — | 33.92% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 39.60% | 34.65% | 33.27% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 39.32% | 33.86% | 32.09% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 40.06% | 34.27% | 32.47% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 39.43% | 34.86% | 32.73% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 39.38% | 35.29% | 33.61% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 40.77% | 35.64% | 33.18% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 41.01% | 36.04% | 33.77% |
| ATM | 41.18% | 36.09% | 33.89% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 41.55% | 35.96% | 34.23% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 42.24% | 36.21% | 34.87% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 42.69% | 36.28% | 34.66% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 42.59% | 36.24% | 34.66% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 43.04% | 36.73% | 34.27% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 43.17% | 37.07% | 34.38% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 44.61% | 39.39% | 34.44% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 45.74% | — | 36.65% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 47.11% | — | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $135.74 | 41.18% | 43.04% | 40.06% | +2.98 | +0.36 | 15 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $134.87 | 36.09% | 36.73% | 34.27% | +2.46 | -0.59 | 23 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $135.13 | 33.89% | 34.27% | 32.47% | +1.80 | -0.52 | 19 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $135.18 | 33.82% | 34.11% | 32.57% | +1.54 | -0.49 | 28 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $135.17 | 33.61% | 34.32% | 33.41% | +0.91 | +0.26 | 18 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $135.33 | 32.56% | 33.65% | 32.38% | +1.27 | +0.46 | 11 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $135.23 | 33.55% | 33.43% | 31.81% | +1.62 | -0.92 | 11 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $135.88 | 31.64% | 32.55% | 31.21% | +1.34 | +0.24 | 12 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $135.81 | 32.72% | 33.21% | 32.27% | +0.94 | +0.02 | 13 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $136.17 | 32.54% | 33.64% | 31.95% | +1.69 | +0.25 | 14 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $136.05 | 33.68% | 34.84% | 32.91% | +1.93 | +0.19 | 17 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $136.13 | 33.61% | 33.90% | 32.17% | +1.73 | -0.57 | 27 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $136.69 | 33.31% | 33.89% | 32.21% | +1.68 | -0.25 | 26 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $135.74 | 41.18% | $135.84 | 15 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $134.87 | 36.09% | $135.12 | 23 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $135.13 | 33.89% | $135.49 | 19 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $135.18 | 33.82% | $135.68 | 28 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $135.17 | 33.61% | $135.82 | 18 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $135.33 | 32.56% | $136.08 | 11 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $135.23 | 33.55% | $136.15 | 11 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $135.88 | 31.64% | $137.12 | 12 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $135.81 | 32.72% | $137.84 | 13 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $136.17 | 32.54% | $138.74 | 14 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $136.05 | 33.68% | $140.17 | 17 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $136.13 | 33.61% | $140.82 | 27 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $136.69 | 33.31% | $143.30 | 26 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 33.64%
- 60 天
- 32.03%
- 90 天
- 32.47%
- 180 天
- 33.53%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 4 次
- 80% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 4.0%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 1.9%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | 开盘前 | 4.6% | -1.1% | 0.23× |
| 2026-08-06 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-30 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-05 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-06 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-07 | 开盘前 | 3.8% | -0.5% | 0.14× |
| 2025-05-08 | 开盘前 | 4.1% | +1.3% | 0.31× |
| 2025-02-06 | 开盘前 | 3.7% | -0.3% | 0.07× |
| 2024-10-31 | 开盘前 | 3.6% | +6.4% | 1.79× |
| 2024-08-01 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-02 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-08 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-02 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。