股票 · 期权分析
CPNG 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $16.33
- 30D ATM IV
- 45.04%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 78
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +2.58
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.970
▲ +0.44 pts 较前一交易日
概览
CPNG 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 45.0%,相当于未来一个月约 ±12.9% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 236 个交易日中 78% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 2.58 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 3%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-02(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±10.2% 的波动,CPNG 实际平均波动 38.1%,5 次中有 0 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 45.04%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +2.58
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +1.73
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.970
对应 30 天内约 ±12.9% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.8%。
高于过去一年中 78% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 2.58 个点。
高于过去一年中 47% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 1.73 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 3%。
高于过去一年中 34% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 236 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 78%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 56%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 78%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 56%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $16.33
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $16.38
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 43.34%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 43.66%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 48.06%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 387,934
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.35
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 305 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 45.04% | +2.58 | 0.970 | $16.33 |
| 2026-11-09 | 44.60% | +4.33 | 0.982 | $16.42 |
| 2026-11-06 | 45.36% | +2.88 | 0.977 | $16.29 |
| 2026-11-05 | 45.47% | +5.10 | 0.957 | $16.42 |
| 2026-11-04 | 44.65% | +1.38 | 0.995 | $17.05 |
| 2026-11-03 | 60.26% | +3.02 | 0.823 | $15.23 |
| 2026-11-02 | 60.37% | +0.72 | 0.843 | $14.70 |
| 2026-10-30 | 57.89% | +3.95 | 0.862 | $14.37 |
| 2026-10-29 | 57.45% | +0.22 | 0.883 | $14.57 |
| 2026-10-28 | — | — | — | $14.11 |
| 2026-10-27 | 58.23% | +1.73 | 0.877 | $13.91 |
| 2026-10-26 | 58.67% | +1.07 | 0.842 | $13.75 |
| 2026-10-23 | 60.28% | +1.87 | 0.851 | $13.90 |
| 2026-10-22 | 60.89% | +4.13 | 0.835 | $13.99 |
| 2026-10-21 | 58.64% | -2.37 | 0.834 | $13.87 |
| 2026-10-20 | 59.93% | +1.17 | 0.786 | $14.32 |
| 2026-10-19 | 59.61% | +1.18 | 0.851 | $14.34 |
| 2026-10-16 | 59.71% | +2.39 | 0.855 | $14.27 |
| 2026-10-15 | 57.85% | +1.49 | 0.838 | $14.79 |
| 2026-10-14 | 56.93% | +1.61 | 0.886 | $14.40 |
| 2026-10-13 | 56.75% | +1.15 | 0.859 | $15.12 |
| 2026-10-09 | 54.68% | +4.13 | 0.903 | $15.82 |
| 2026-10-08 | 49.32% | +2.13 | 0.996 | $15.41 |
| 2026-10-07 | 57.08% | +1.08 | 0.886 | $14.81 |
| 2026-10-06 | 54.38% | +0.73 | 0.892 | $14.42 |
| 2026-10-05 | 48.48% | +3.76 | 1.023 | $14.20 |
| 2026-10-02 | 52.06% | +0.54 | 0.938 | $13.78 |
| 2026-10-01 | 53.46% | -1.62 | 0.977 | $13.80 |
| 2026-09-30 | 51.60% | +1.17 | 0.969 | $13.87 |
| 2026-09-29 | 44.15% | -0.10 | 1.097 | $13.85 |
| 2026-09-28 | 44.74% | +1.13 | 1.094 | $13.75 |
| 2026-09-25 | 47.52% | +1.23 | 1.041 | $13.88 |
| 2026-09-24 | 42.82% | -0.50 | 1.133 | $13.88 |
| 2026-09-23 | 43.21% | +2.78 | 1.130 | $14.28 |
| 2026-09-22 | 42.95% | +1.90 | 1.136 | $14.61 |
| 2026-09-21 | 44.12% | +2.62 | 1.124 | $14.62 |
| 2026-09-18 | 41.82% | +0.83 | 1.169 | $14.29 |
| 2026-09-17 | 43.13% | +0.08 | 1.163 | $14.46 |
| 2026-09-16 | 43.93% | +2.63 | 1.139 | $14.40 |
| 2025-10-22 | 42.08% | +3.14 | 0.817 | $31.13 |
| 2025-10-21 | — | — | — | $31.43 |
| 2025-10-20 | 36.33% | +2.90 | 0.979 | $31.69 |
| 2025-10-17 | 43.69% | +4.44 | 0.835 | $31.21 |
| 2025-10-16 | — | — | — | $31.50 |
| 2025-10-15 | 42.09% | +4.35 | 0.841 | $31.55 |
| 2025-10-14 | 40.46% | +2.79 | 0.873 | $31.76 |
| 2025-10-10 | 38.29% | +1.51 | 0.935 | $31.23 |
| 2025-10-09 | 34.34% | +1.84 | 0.983 | $32.47 |
| 2025-10-08 | 36.45% | -0.36 | 0.923 | $32.15 |
| 2025-10-07 | 35.49% | +0.62 | 0.947 | $32.37 |
| 2025-10-06 | 32.74% | +0.35 | 1.021 | $32.43 |
| 2025-10-03 | 33.09% | +1.76 | 1.024 | $32.36 |
| 2025-10-02 | 35.09% | +3.83 | 0.993 | $32.56 |
| 2025-10-01 | 34.72% | +1.03 | 0.987 | $32.43 |
| 2025-09-30 | 30.81% | +1.67 | 1.063 | $32.20 |
| 2025-09-29 | 30.48% | +1.82 | 1.070 | $32.83 |
| 2025-09-26 | 27.16% | +2.20 | 1.196 | $32.19 |
| 2025-09-25 | 31.25% | +1.09 | 1.053 | $31.85 |
| 2025-09-24 | 28.65% | +1.65 | 1.157 | $32.04 |
| 2025-09-23 | 30.61% | +1.70 | 1.086 | $32.24 |
| 2025-09-22 | 29.93% | +1.46 | 1.100 | $32.32 |
| 2025-09-19 | — | — | — | $32.86 |
| 2025-09-18 | 28.58% | +0.43 | 1.151 | $33.42 |
| 2025-09-17 | 28.21% | +0.33 | 1.160 | $33.53 |
| 2025-09-16 | 28.83% | +2.29 | 1.133 | $33.31 |
| 2025-09-15 | 29.72% | +0.47 | 1.130 | $33.50 |
| 2025-09-12 | — | — | — | $32.41 |
| 2025-09-11 | 29.11% | +1.57 | 1.112 | $32.45 |
| 2025-09-10 | 28.71% | +1.19 | 1.164 | $32.12 |
| 2025-09-09 | 28.05% | +2.68 | 1.205 | $32.33 |
| 2025-09-08 | 30.29% | +0.76 | 1.104 | $31.50 |
| 2025-09-05 | 26.08% | +2.61 | 1.208 | $28.91 |
| 2025-09-04 | 25.87% | +3.09 | 1.209 | $28.73 |
| 2025-09-03 | 26.68% | +2.63 | 1.192 | $28.33 |
| 2025-09-02 | 27.81% | +2.87 | 1.151 | $28.41 |
| 2025-08-29 | 25.41% | +2.17 | 1.238 | $28.58 |
| 2025-08-28 | 28.45% | +1.41 | 1.135 | $28.63 |
| 2025-08-27 | 26.93% | +1.75 | 1.180 | $28.24 |
| 2025-08-26 | 26.82% | +2.66 | 1.181 | $28.42 |
| 2025-08-25 | 27.21% | +2.89 | 1.164 | $28.54 |
| 2025-08-22 | 25.15% | +2.13 | 1.236 | $28.75 |
| 2025-08-21 | 27.25% | +2.30 | 1.182 | $28.22 |
| 2025-08-20 | 26.12% | +2.38 | 1.221 | $28.84 |
| 2025-08-19 | 25.75% | +2.13 | 1.224 | $28.85 |
| 2025-08-18 | 25.77% | +2.51 | 1.192 | $28.98 |
| 2025-08-15 | 26.15% | +4.63 | 1.210 | $28.14 |
| 2025-08-14 | 26.31% | +2.09 | 1.189 | $28.33 |
| 2025-08-13 | 26.03% | +1.33 | 1.188 | $28.47 |
| 2025-08-12 | — | — | — | $28.14 |
| 2025-08-11 | 26.94% | +2.05 | 1.162 | $27.67 |
| 2025-08-08 | 26.49% | +1.38 | 1.166 | $27.83 |
| 2025-08-07 | 28.46% | +1.88 | 1.117 | $27.81 |
| 2025-08-06 | 27.40% | +3.70 | 1.170 | $28.09 |
| 2025-08-05 | 41.73% | +0.92 | — | $29.90 |
| 2025-08-04 | 42.56% | +3.44 | 0.864 | $29.63 |
| 2025-08-01 | 41.75% | +2.84 | 0.885 | $28.74 |
| 2025-07-31 | 43.20% | +4.61 | 0.841 | $29.43 |
| 2025-07-30 | 39.51% | -0.43 | 0.891 | $29.45 |
| 2025-07-29 | 40.85% | +2.47 | 0.910 | $29.83 |
| 2025-07-28 | 39.23% | +1.51 | 0.897 | $30.06 |
| 2025-07-25 | 39.93% | +2.13 | 0.874 | $30.25 |
| 2025-07-24 | 39.56% | +6.43 | 0.881 | $30.14 |
| 2025-07-23 | 39.78% | +4.73 | 0.887 | $30.54 |
| 2025-07-22 | 40.11% | +4.35 | 0.864 | $30.78 |
| 2025-07-21 | 38.75% | +3.89 | 0.878 | $31.39 |
| 2025-07-18 | 38.87% | +3.26 | 0.877 | $31.49 |
| 2025-07-17 | 39.38% | +3.09 | 0.871 | $31.15 |
| 2025-07-16 | 39.96% | +3.62 | 0.866 | $31.22 |
| 2025-07-15 | 40.06% | +3.20 | 0.880 | $31.13 |
| 2025-07-14 | 39.42% | +5.49 | 0.892 | $30.61 |
| 2025-07-11 | 37.86% | +2.65 | 0.883 | $30.08 |
| 2025-07-10 | 37.28% | +7.43 | 0.922 | $30.45 |
| 2025-07-09 | 35.32% | +3.25 | 0.971 | $30.17 |
| 2025-07-08 | 39.21% | +3.99 | 0.889 | $29.99 |
| 2025-07-07 | 35.43% | +4.20 | 0.998 | $30.00 |
| 2025-07-03 | 33.28% | +3.68 | 1.022 | $30.29 |
| 2025-07-02 | 35.21% | +4.87 | 0.993 | $30.03 |
| 2025-07-01 | 30.22% | +3.99 | 1.145 | $29.93 |
| 2025-06-30 | 32.80% | +1.23 | 1.072 | $29.96 |
| 2025-06-27 | 32.36% | +3.83 | 1.071 | $30.81 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 305 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 305 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Δ 看涨 | 57.33% | 50.40% | 51.66% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 56.49% | 48.69% | 49.23% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 55.76% | 47.30% | 47.40% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 54.96% | 46.71% | 45.90% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 54.08% | 46.39% | 45.94% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 53.42% | 46.28% | 46.06% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 53.13% | 46.22% | 45.78% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 53.22% | 46.19% | 45.11% |
| ATM | 53.58% | 46.25% | 44.97% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 54.09% | 46.43% | 45.05% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 54.70% | 46.69% | 45.21% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 55.29% | 47.05% | 45.85% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 55.81% | 47.71% | 47.11% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 56.37% | 48.71% | 48.16% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 57.08% | 50.10% | 49.29% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 58.20% | 51.87% | 51.03% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 60.45% | 54.30% | 52.29% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 79.08% | 74.28% | 55.59% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $16.30 | 53.58% | 56.37% | 54.96% | +1.41 | +2.09 | 8 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $16.32 | 46.25% | 48.71% | 46.71% | +2.00 | +1.46 | 10 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $16.33 | 44.97% | 48.16% | 45.90% | +2.26 | +2.06 | 11 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $16.35 | 44.50% | 46.51% | 45.96% | +0.56 | +1.73 | 9 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $16.38 | 45.10% | 48.25% | 45.41% | +2.83 | +1.72 | 9 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $16.39 | 43.62% | 45.59% | 44.43% | +1.16 | +1.39 | 11 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $16.46 | 43.29% | 46.75% | 42.79% | +3.96 | +1.47 | 12 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $16.51 | 43.78% | 46.57% | 44.28% | +2.29 | +1.65 | 10 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $16.62 | 46.22% | 48.96% | 44.22% | +4.74 | +0.37 | 12 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $16.77 | 48.35% | 51.38% | 49.53% | +1.86 | +2.11 | 16 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $16.82 | 48.88% | 50.74% | 47.98% | +2.77 | +0.48 | 12 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $16.99 | 48.86% | 49.85% | 47.88% | +1.97 | +0.00 | 9 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $16.30 | 53.58% | $16.32 | 8 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $16.32 | 46.25% | $16.37 | 10 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $16.33 | 44.97% | $16.41 | 11 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $16.35 | 44.50% | $16.46 | 9 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $16.38 | 45.10% | $16.52 | 9 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $16.39 | 43.62% | $16.55 | 11 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $16.46 | 43.29% | $16.74 | 12 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $16.51 | 43.78% | $16.96 | 10 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $16.62 | 46.22% | $17.26 | 12 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $16.77 | 48.35% | $17.84 | 16 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $16.82 | 48.88% | $18.06 | 12 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $16.99 | 48.86% | $18.81 | 9 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 45.04%
- 60 天
- 43.34%
- 90 天
- 43.66%
- 180 天
- 48.06%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 305 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 0 次
- 0% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 10.2%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 38.1%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 收盘后 | 11.6% | +12.0% | 1.03× |
| 2026-08-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-26 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-05 | 收盘后 | 8.8% | -51.8% | 5.87× |
| 2025-05-06 | 收盘后 | 9.0% | -40.0% | 4.46× |
| 2025-02-25 | 收盘后 | 10.4% | -40.4% | 3.89× |
| 2024-11-05 | 收盘后 | 11.3% | -46.4% | 4.12× |
| 2024-08-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-27 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。