股票 · 期权分析
CRCL 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $64.98
- 30D ATM IV
- 73.61%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- —
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +0.75
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.988
▲ +0.14 pts 较前一交易日
概览
CRCL 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 73.6%,相当于未来一个月约 ±21.1% 的波动。它在本站的历史只有 132 个交易日,不到计算百分位所需的 180 个,所以这个读数还没有和它自己的过去作比较。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 0.75 个波动率点。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 1%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-03(根据其财报周期估算)。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 73.61%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +0.75
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +2.33
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.988
对应 30 天内约 ±21.1% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.6%。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 0.75 个点。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 2.33 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 1%。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 127 个交易日(一年窗口)
这个窗口内的历史不足,无法定位当前读数。
- IV 百分位,1 年
- —
- IV 排名,1 年
- —
- IV 百分位,2 年
- —
- IV 排名,2 年
- —
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $64.98
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $64.99
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 72.45%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 72.74%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 73.38%
- 使用的到期日数
- 11
- 总未平仓量
- 492,057
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.82
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 132 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 73.61% | +0.75 | 0.988 | $64.98 |
| 2026-11-09 | 73.47% | +3.01 | 0.976 | $67.56 |
| 2026-11-06 | 74.88% | +6.25 | 0.972 | $67.88 |
| 2026-11-05 | 76.48% | +6.00 | 0.976 | $69.48 |
| 2026-11-04 | 75.50% | +0.36 | 0.962 | $76.12 |
| 2026-11-03 | 86.17% | +1.75 | 0.873 | $75.22 |
| 2026-11-02 | 85.21% | +0.01 | 0.904 | $72.08 |
| 2026-10-30 | 85.13% | -0.81 | 0.892 | $72.54 |
| 2026-10-29 | 84.18% | -2.34 | 0.881 | $79.99 |
| 2026-10-28 | 88.35% | -1.14 | 0.844 | $81.71 |
| 2026-10-27 | 80.31% | -0.83 | 0.928 | $81.58 |
| 2026-10-26 | 83.35% | +0.60 | 0.897 | $79.84 |
| 2026-10-23 | 83.63% | +0.07 | 0.905 | $85.91 |
| 2026-10-22 | 84.17% | -0.85 | 0.896 | $86.62 |
| 2026-10-21 | 81.83% | -0.84 | 0.902 | $89.71 |
| 2026-10-20 | 81.17% | -0.01 | 0.897 | $85.87 |
| 2026-10-19 | 80.66% | -1.28 | 0.903 | $81.37 |
| 2026-10-16 | 83.21% | -0.73 | 0.881 | $82.22 |
| 2026-10-15 | 82.40% | -2.54 | 0.890 | $86.97 |
| 2026-10-14 | 78.26% | -6.05 | 0.900 | $79.55 |
| 2026-10-13 | 76.94% | -4.36 | 0.902 | $84.27 |
| 2026-10-09 | 74.33% | -5.21 | 0.933 | $84.51 |
| 2026-10-08 | 75.71% | -3.69 | 0.914 | $80.84 |
| 2026-10-07 | 62.42% | -5.16 | 1.110 | $80.84 |
| 2026-10-06 | 69.88% | -3.84 | 0.993 | $84.13 |
| 2026-10-05 | 68.15% | -3.19 | 1.034 | $83.30 |
| 2026-10-02 | 66.03% | -5.30 | 1.067 | $81.25 |
| 2026-10-01 | 74.26% | -4.59 | 0.980 | $82.91 |
| 2026-09-30 | 67.67% | -4.30 | 1.059 | $82.17 |
| 2026-09-29 | 71.04% | -5.96 | 1.038 | $83.70 |
| 2026-09-28 | 73.25% | -7.73 | 1.009 | $85.80 |
| 2026-09-25 | 69.68% | -4.96 | 1.078 | $89.00 |
| 2026-09-24 | 75.19% | -5.32 | 1.038 | $93.00 |
| 2026-09-23 | 74.42% | -4.94 | 1.045 | $91.72 |
| 2026-09-22 | 75.66% | -6.59 | 1.035 | $94.59 |
| 2026-09-21 | 74.82% | -3.98 | 1.047 | $94.49 |
| 2026-09-18 | 72.79% | -4.38 | 1.061 | $91.78 |
| 2026-09-17 | 70.50% | -3.20 | 1.070 | $85.09 |
| 2025-10-22 | 103.21% | -26.43 | 0.874 | $124.79 |
| 2025-10-21 | 106.08% | -29.71 | 0.873 | $129.85 |
| 2025-10-20 | 100.77% | -15.28 | 0.830 | $130.81 |
| 2025-10-17 | 94.74% | -12.40 | 0.895 | $126.49 |
| 2025-10-16 | 92.02% | -10.72 | 0.957 | $128.46 |
| 2025-10-15 | 84.93% | -21.96 | 1.034 | $134.48 |
| 2025-10-14 | 102.76% | -17.53 | 0.894 | $134.46 |
| 2025-10-10 | 110.98% | -11.91 | 0.894 | $132.94 |
| 2025-10-09 | 94.88% | -18.11 | 1.018 | $150.48 |
| 2025-10-08 | 99.75% | -20.33 | 0.914 | $150.46 |
| 2025-10-07 | 95.08% | -19.17 | 0.954 | $148.72 |
| 2025-10-06 | 92.33% | -10.21 | 0.950 | $148.51 |
| 2025-10-03 | 91.76% | -13.37 | 0.939 | $145.78 |
| 2025-10-02 | 92.15% | -13.12 | 1.005 | $149.72 |
| 2025-10-01 | 84.45% | -19.20 | 1.023 | $129.03 |
| 2025-09-30 | 85.03% | -19.55 | 1.002 | $132.58 |
| 2025-09-29 | 85.71% | -9.29 | 1.007 | $133.66 |
| 2025-09-26 | 83.51% | -11.63 | 1.007 | $126.99 |
| 2025-09-25 | 85.98% | -19.47 | 1.049 | $124.66 |
| 2025-09-24 | 93.11% | -16.70 | 0.930 | $131.58 |
| 2025-09-23 | 89.88% | -3.38 | 0.992 | $130.97 |
| 2025-09-22 | 88.92% | -20.14 | 1.025 | $137.64 |
| 2025-09-19 | 90.04% | -10.08 | 1.000 | $144.14 |
| 2025-09-18 | 96.96% | -14.84 | 0.934 | $140.42 |
| 2025-09-17 | 95.59% | -19.73 | 0.949 | $131.04 |
| 2025-09-16 | 93.64% | -16.13 | 0.949 | $134.81 |
| 2025-09-15 | 95.11% | -14.75 | 0.896 | $134.05 |
| 2025-09-12 | 89.22% | -13.31 | 0.901 | $125.32 |
| 2025-09-11 | 93.32% | -9.47 | 0.907 | $133.70 |
| 2025-09-10 | 80.00% | +2.54 | 0.969 | $113.69 |
| 2025-09-09 | 77.81% | +0.78 | 1.007 | $117.99 |
| 2025-09-08 | 70.12% | -1.60 | 1.127 | $112.46 |
| 2025-09-05 | 73.07% | +2.09 | 1.022 | $114.56 |
| 2025-09-04 | 71.50% | -1.76 | 1.050 | $117.49 |
| 2025-09-03 | 68.51% | +0.08 | 1.098 | $118.46 |
| 2025-09-02 | 77.85% | -3.55 | 0.998 | $120.14 |
| 2025-08-29 | 68.46% | -3.73 | 1.127 | $131.98 |
| 2025-08-28 | 67.35% | +3.65 | 1.155 | $130.94 |
| 2025-08-27 | 67.67% | -4.98 | 1.143 | $127.40 |
| 2025-08-26 | 75.32% | -1.83 | 1.001 | $129.05 |
| 2025-08-25 | 77.99% | -9.91 | 1.071 | $125.24 |
| 2025-08-22 | 72.47% | -4.31 | 1.076 | $135.04 |
| 2025-08-21 | 67.30% | -4.30 | 1.153 | $131.80 |
| 2025-08-20 | 72.42% | -3.36 | 1.039 | $137.81 |
| 2025-08-19 | 69.51% | -0.15 | 1.079 | $135.23 |
| 2025-08-18 | 73.44% | -4.04 | 1.070 | $141.58 |
| 2025-08-15 | 82.65% | -1.44 | 0.988 | $149.26 |
| 2025-08-14 | 87.51% | +0.67 | 0.966 | $139.23 |
| 2025-08-13 | 86.09% | -10.06 | 0.942 | $153.16 |
| 2025-08-12 | 81.19% | -7.11 | 0.982 | $163.21 |
| 2025-08-11 | 88.48% | -3.82 | 0.915 | $161.17 |
| 2025-08-08 | 70.97% | +1.09 | 1.119 | $159.03 |
| 2025-08-07 | 79.16% | -0.29 | 0.992 | $152.93 |
| 2025-08-06 | 79.41% | -1.69 | 0.924 | $161.71 |
| 2025-08-05 | 81.31% | -2.42 | 0.930 | $153.93 |
| 2025-08-04 | 80.87% | -7.13 | 0.940 | $164.82 |
| 2025-08-01 | 84.78% | -7.51 | 0.913 | $168.10 |
| 2025-07-31 | 73.42% | -2.10 | 0.963 | $183.52 |
| 2025-07-30 | 64.98% | +2.37 | 1.028 | $190.50 |
| 2025-07-29 | 77.67% | -10.00 | 0.858 | $181.64 |
| 2025-07-28 | 73.00% | -8.93 | 0.923 | $185.36 |
| 2025-07-25 | 70.36% | -9.45 | 0.982 | $192.86 |
| 2025-07-24 | 74.68% | -16.12 | 0.999 | $193.08 |
| 2025-07-23 | 83.94% | -16.80 | 0.884 | $202.41 |
| 2025-07-22 | 86.19% | -14.67 | 0.926 | $198.31 |
| 2025-07-21 | 90.38% | -14.79 | 0.943 | $216.10 |
| 2025-07-18 | 105.27% | -23.14 | 0.845 | $223.78 |
| 2025-07-17 | 102.80% | -18.23 | 0.825 | $235.08 |
| 2025-07-16 | 102.95% | -11.78 | 0.816 | $233.20 |
| 2025-07-15 | 91.29% | -5.80 | 0.897 | $195.33 |
| 2025-07-14 | 98.48% | -8.07 | 0.872 | $204.70 |
| 2025-07-11 | 94.74% | -0.94 | 0.933 | $187.33 |
| 2025-07-10 | 91.70% | -9.42 | 0.949 | $202.90 |
| 2025-07-09 | 93.37% | -9.07 | 0.923 | $200.68 |
| 2025-07-08 | 100.46% | -4.03 | 0.898 | $204.81 |
| 2025-07-07 | 104.19% | -14.77 | 0.894 | $207.46 |
| 2025-07-03 | 96.60% | -11.12 | 0.933 | $188.77 |
| 2025-07-02 | 96.12% | -9.99 | 0.961 | $177.97 |
| 2025-07-01 | 115.98% | -11.61 | 0.865 | $192.53 |
| 2025-06-30 | 117.32% | -13.33 | 0.906 | $181.29 |
| 2025-06-27 | 134.15% | -14.66 | 0.900 | $180.43 |
| 2025-06-26 | 122.73% | -16.28 | 0.956 | $213.63 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 132 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 132 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 91.95% | 82.07% | 77.76% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 90.59% | 80.35% | 73.51% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 89.52% | 79.55% | 72.88% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 89.81% | 79.71% | 72.88% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 89.53% | 80.15% | 73.17% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 89.63% | 79.86% | 73.67% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 89.96% | 80.28% | 74.19% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 90.53% | 80.27% | 74.80% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 91.28% | 80.88% | 75.36% |
| ATM | 91.89% | 81.71% | 75.25% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 92.66% | 82.14% | 75.80% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 93.50% | 83.28% | 75.49% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 94.20% | 83.92% | 75.86% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 95.02% | 84.57% | 76.73% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 96.23% | 85.36% | 77.47% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 97.86% | 86.98% | 78.05% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 100.13% | 88.39% | 79.08% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 102.45% | 90.97% | 81.38% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 106.53% | 95.05% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $65.02 | 91.89% | 96.23% | 89.53% | +6.70 | +0.99 | 30 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $65.10 | 81.71% | 85.36% | 80.15% | +5.21 | +1.04 | 39 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $65.05 | 75.25% | 77.47% | 73.17% | +4.30 | +0.07 | 36 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $65.10 | 74.52% | 78.59% | 73.28% | +5.31 | +1.41 | 37 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $64.97 | 73.50% | 76.03% | 75.86% | +0.17 | +2.45 | 30 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $65.28 | 74.19% | 77.43% | 72.67% | +4.75 | +0.86 | 22 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $65.08 | 71.62% | 77.40% | 71.55% | +5.84 | +2.86 | 25 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $65.58 | 72.66% | 75.50% | 71.40% | +4.10 | +0.79 | 27 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $66.09 | 72.81% | 75.59% | 72.79% | +2.80 | +1.38 | 29 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $66.30 | 72.79% | 75.90% | 71.86% | +4.04 | +1.09 | 24 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $66.26 | 74.09% | 75.54% | 73.98% | +1.56 | +0.68 | 31 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
11 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $65.02 | 91.89% | $65.25 | 30 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $65.10 | 81.71% | $65.70 | 39 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $65.05 | 75.25% | $65.91 | 36 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $65.10 | 74.52% | $66.30 | 37 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $64.97 | 73.50% | $66.48 | 30 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $65.28 | 74.19% | $67.17 | 22 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $65.08 | 71.62% | $67.12 | 25 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $65.58 | 72.66% | $68.79 | 27 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $66.09 | 72.81% | $72.58 | 29 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $66.30 | 72.79% | $74.30 | 24 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $66.26 | 74.09% | $78.12 | 31 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 73.61%
- 60 天
- 72.45%
- 90 天
- 72.74%
- 180 天
- 73.38%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 132 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 2 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 2 次中 2 次
- 100% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 14.0%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 1.2%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2026-11-04 | 开盘前 | 13.5% | +1.2% | 0.09× |
| 2026-08-05 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-11 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-25 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-12 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-12 | 开盘前 | 14.4% | +1.3% | 0.09× |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。