股票 · 期权分析
CRDO 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $129.80
- 30D ATM IV
- 109.32%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- —
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +8.04
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.847
▲ +1.77 pts 较前一交易日
概览
CRDO 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 109.3%,相当于未来一个月约 ±31.3% 的波动。它在本站的历史只有 303 个交易日,不到计算百分位所需的 180 个,所以这个读数还没有和它自己的过去作比较。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 8.04 个波动率点。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 15%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2026-12-01 收盘后。
在最近 4 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±25.0% 的波动,CRDO 实际平均波动 166.3%,4 次中有 0 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 109.32%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +8.04
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +1.61
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.847
对应 30 天内约 ±31.3% 的波动，平常一天约 ±6.9%。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 8.04 个点。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 1.61 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 15%。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 172 个交易日(一年窗口)
这个窗口内的历史不足,无法定位当前读数。
- IV 百分位,1 年
- —
- IV 排名,1 年
- —
- IV 百分位,2 年
- —
- IV 排名,2 年
- —
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $129.80
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $129.68
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 97.76%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 92.65%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 90.75%
- 使用的到期日数
- 15
- 总未平仓量
- 248,065
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.44
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 303 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 109.32% | +8.04 | 0.847 | $129.80 |
| 2026-11-09 | 107.55% | +9.54 | 0.863 | $132.89 |
| 2026-11-06 | 114.86% | +11.60 | 0.835 | $120.51 |
| 2026-11-05 | 121.83% | +9.91 | 0.796 | $112.33 |
| 2026-11-04 | 104.40% | +4.19 | 0.839 | $136.50 |
| 2026-11-03 | 101.31% | +4.86 | 0.866 | $150.91 |
| 2026-11-02 | 100.98% | +1.12 | 0.875 | $140.02 |
| 2026-10-30 | 93.88% | +2.89 | 0.923 | $150.99 |
| 2026-10-29 | 82.67% | +0.91 | 1.019 | $165.29 |
| 2026-10-28 | 85.43% | -5.54 | 0.967 | $173.69 |
| 2026-10-27 | 81.19% | +3.87 | 1.023 | $167.43 |
| 2026-10-26 | 84.38% | +2.35 | 0.988 | $151.15 |
| 2026-10-23 | 86.25% | +2.25 | 0.965 | $147.29 |
| 2026-10-22 | 85.05% | +1.90 | 0.975 | $162.77 |
| 2026-10-21 | 80.31% | +1.70 | 0.998 | $182.28 |
| 2026-10-20 | 80.69% | +2.09 | 1.012 | $171.51 |
| 2026-10-19 | 80.14% | +0.88 | 1.003 | $172.81 |
| 2026-10-16 | 81.14% | +8.01 | 0.998 | $169.70 |
| 2026-10-15 | 79.09% | +2.94 | 1.035 | $178.50 |
| 2026-10-14 | 78.59% | +1.64 | 1.030 | $179.23 |
| 2026-10-13 | 79.37% | +3.54 | 1.013 | $198.31 |
| 2026-10-09 | 75.70% | -0.82 | 1.048 | $216.55 |
| 2026-10-08 | 79.25% | -3.22 | 1.032 | $211.86 |
| 2026-10-07 | 74.50% | -1.39 | 1.047 | $220.01 |
| 2026-10-06 | 74.22% | -4.93 | 1.053 | $220.83 |
| 2026-10-05 | 70.68% | -3.18 | 1.108 | $212.48 |
| 2026-10-02 | 77.90% | -2.52 | 1.063 | $218.64 |
| 2026-10-01 | 78.56% | -1.92 | 1.060 | $210.17 |
| 2026-09-30 | 79.97% | -4.25 | 1.020 | $194.79 |
| 2026-09-29 | 76.71% | -3.74 | 1.059 | $192.35 |
| 2026-09-28 | 76.93% | -4.97 | 1.049 | $192.67 |
| 2026-09-25 | 77.21% | -3.26 | 1.062 | $210.97 |
| 2026-09-24 | 74.12% | -2.59 | 1.078 | $195.97 |
| 2026-09-23 | 74.10% | -3.03 | 1.093 | $193.87 |
| 2026-09-22 | 73.72% | -5.22 | 1.080 | $192.56 |
| 2026-09-21 | 73.49% | -4.33 | 1.053 | $187.27 |
| 2026-09-18 | 67.32% | -1.90 | 1.114 | $175.89 |
| 2026-09-17 | 67.32% | +0.14 | 1.110 | $168.25 |
| 2025-10-22 | 86.14% | +5.52 | 1.054 | $137.20 |
| 2025-10-21 | 88.42% | +7.37 | 1.010 | $144.17 |
| 2025-10-20 | 89.99% | +5.35 | 0.993 | $151.66 |
| 2025-10-17 | 90.41% | +7.39 | 0.992 | $143.61 |
| 2025-10-16 | 91.01% | +5.77 | 0.976 | $136.53 |
| 2025-10-15 | 89.14% | +5.27 | 0.986 | $131.41 |
| 2025-10-14 | 92.06% | +3.19 | 0.949 | $129.75 |
| 2025-10-10 | 90.84% | +3.61 | 0.989 | $138.83 |
| 2025-10-09 | 81.91% | +2.59 | 1.046 | $151.15 |
| 2025-10-08 | 80.45% | +1.31 | 1.043 | $148.87 |
| 2025-10-07 | 84.41% | -1.96 | 1.009 | $137.20 |
| 2025-10-06 | 81.88% | -0.76 | 1.027 | $147.42 |
| 2025-10-03 | 80.57% | -1.61 | 1.011 | $143.87 |
| 2025-10-02 | 80.42% | +2.24 | 1.024 | $149.63 |
| 2025-10-01 | 75.67% | +0.60 | 1.052 | $144.91 |
| 2025-09-30 | 77.33% | -5.46 | 1.022 | $145.61 |
| 2025-09-29 | 75.80% | +0.30 | 1.050 | $146.01 |
| 2025-09-26 | 73.69% | +6.43 | 1.060 | $142.93 |
| 2025-09-25 | 80.24% | +4.17 | 1.021 | $144.94 |
| 2025-09-24 | 80.50% | -4.67 | 1.010 | $149.38 |
| 2025-09-23 | 73.79% | -5.74 | 1.074 | $162.26 |
| 2025-09-22 | 73.98% | +0.31 | 1.046 | $164.10 |
| 2025-09-19 | 69.66% | +1.89 | 1.079 | $169.56 |
| 2025-09-18 | 70.93% | +3.75 | — | $172.31 |
| 2025-09-17 | 69.29% | +1.65 | — | $164.44 |
| 2025-09-16 | 69.16% | +1.23 | — | $164.42 |
| 2025-09-15 | 68.63% | +0.91 | — | $163.98 |
| 2025-09-12 | 67.05% | -0.88 | — | $161.99 |
| 2025-09-11 | 68.95% | +0.94 | — | $159.32 |
| 2025-09-10 | 69.55% | +3.35 | — | $163.96 |
| 2025-09-09 | 65.99% | +5.46 | — | $149.03 |
| 2025-09-08 | 68.77% | +3.24 | — | $147.53 |
| 2025-09-05 | 68.19% | +5.61 | — | $140.82 |
| 2025-09-04 | 71.50% | +5.61 | — | $134.00 |
| 2025-09-03 | 91.44% | +7.37 | — | $124.77 |
| 2025-09-02 | 97.94% | +4.57 | — | $124.27 |
| 2025-08-29 | 98.44% | +1.24 | — | $123.06 |
| 2025-08-28 | 93.14% | +2.80 | — | $131.82 |
| 2025-08-27 | 96.76% | +4.77 | — | $122.73 |
| 2025-08-26 | 96.58% | +10.36 | — | $120.10 |
| 2025-08-25 | 96.08% | +5.22 | — | $115.41 |
| 2025-08-22 | 91.96% | +6.77 | 0.879 | $114.04 |
| 2025-08-21 | 95.89% | +5.53 | 0.845 | $110.86 |
| 2025-08-20 | 95.83% | +13.80 | 0.848 | $105.99 |
| 2025-08-19 | — | — | — | $106.30 |
| 2025-08-18 | — | — | — | $118.74 |
| 2025-08-15 | — | — | — | $116.74 |
| 2025-08-14 | — | — | — | $117.33 |
| 2025-08-13 | — | — | — | $121.13 |
| 2025-08-12 | — | — | — | $125.38 |
| 2025-08-11 | 95.69% | +0.69 | 0.835 | $118.57 |
| 2025-08-08 | 91.07% | +1.24 | — | $120.41 |
| 2025-08-07 | 92.99% | +2.03 | — | $119.78 |
| 2025-08-06 | 91.69% | +1.25 | — | $117.34 |
| 2025-08-05 | 89.91% | +4.10 | 0.920 | $110.29 |
| 2025-08-04 | 87.66% | +3.84 | 0.921 | $114.70 |
| 2025-08-01 | 89.18% | +2.39 | 0.943 | $107.56 |
| 2025-07-31 | 87.12% | +1.76 | — | $111.55 |
| 2025-07-30 | — | — | — | $116.01 |
| 2025-07-29 | 79.81% | +2.60 | — | $109.38 |
| 2025-07-28 | 79.48% | -0.27 | — | $107.95 |
| 2025-07-25 | 74.28% | +1.54 | — | $101.22 |
| 2025-07-24 | 75.73% | +0.04 | — | $101.17 |
| 2025-07-23 | 77.72% | -0.45 | — | $98.41 |
| 2025-07-22 | 75.06% | +1.78 | 1.045 | $92.93 |
| 2025-07-21 | 74.15% | -0.97 | — | $95.74 |
| 2025-07-18 | 71.57% | -0.81 | — | $93.47 |
| 2025-07-17 | 71.38% | -0.18 | — | $98.45 |
| 2025-07-16 | 67.93% | +1.67 | — | $101.19 |
| 2025-07-15 | — | — | — | $102.59 |
| 2025-07-14 | — | — | — | $98.70 |
| 2025-07-11 | — | — | — | $98.52 |
| 2025-07-10 | — | — | — | $97.29 |
| 2025-07-09 | — | — | — | $97.59 |
| 2025-07-08 | 69.54% | -0.43 | — | $93.36 |
| 2025-07-07 | 71.53% | +1.58 | — | $92.73 |
| 2025-07-03 | 67.21% | +1.49 | — | $93.61 |
| 2025-07-02 | — | — | — | $89.37 |
| 2025-07-01 | 67.81% | +0.56 | — | $87.59 |
| 2025-06-30 | 66.25% | +1.06 | — | $92.59 |
| 2025-06-27 | 65.35% | +1.51 | — | $93.49 |
| 2025-06-26 | 66.49% | +1.10 | — | $95.05 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 303 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 303 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 126.17% | 106.01% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 124.47% | 108.64% | 95.54% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 125.04% | 108.10% | 96.75% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 126.46% | 107.64% | 97.08% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 127.19% | 107.60% | 98.10% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 127.92% | 108.37% | 99.07% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 129.05% | 109.09% | 99.83% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 128.64% | 109.90% | 100.08% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 127.24% | 111.33% | 100.31% |
| ATM | 128.31% | 112.09% | 100.93% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 130.97% | 112.71% | 101.75% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 132.26% | 112.73% | 101.19% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 134.96% | 114.70% | 103.08% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 134.03% | 115.00% | 104.70% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 135.62% | 117.40% | 105.99% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 136.44% | 118.51% | 108.08% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 139.44% | 121.45% | 110.60% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 146.31% | 127.56% | 114.71% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 153.39% | 133.97% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $129.40 | 128.31% | 135.62% | 127.19% | +8.43 | +3.09 | 50 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $129.25 | 112.09% | 117.40% | 107.60% | +9.80 | +0.41 | 42 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $129.70 | 100.93% | 105.99% | 98.10% | +7.89 | +1.11 | 31 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $129.55 | 114.66% | 117.86% | 108.66% | +9.20 | -1.40 | 22 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $129.70 | 108.62% | 114.58% | 106.69% | +7.89 | +2.02 | 22 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $129.95 | 105.14% | 110.79% | 102.27% | +8.52 | +1.39 | 34 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $131.31 | 97.90% | 109.02% | 99.48% | +9.54 | +6.35 | 21 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $130.55 | 97.72% | 101.86% | 94.06% | +7.81 | +0.24 | 35 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $131.16 | 91.07% | 93.95% | 89.23% | +4.73 | +0.51 | 32 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $131.42 | 92.85% | 96.27% | 90.15% | +6.12 | +0.36 | 43 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $131.99 | 92.84% | 95.43% | 89.75% | +5.68 | -0.25 | 33 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $133.31 | 89.84% | 91.46% | 89.54% | +1.92 | +0.66 | 39 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $133.97 | 89.87% | 91.81% | 91.49% | +0.32 | +1.78 | 51 |
| 2027-07-16 | 248 | $133.51 | 87.27% | 89.34% | 88.66% | +0.68 | +1.72 | 51 |
| 2027-10-15 | 339 | $136.30 | 86.69% | 88.93% | 86.37% | +2.56 | +0.95 | 52 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
15 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $129.40 | 128.31% | $130.28 | 50 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $129.25 | 112.09% | $131.49 | 42 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $129.70 | 100.93% | $132.81 | 31 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $129.55 | 114.66% | $135.27 | 22 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $129.70 | 108.62% | $136.36 | 22 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $129.95 | 105.14% | $137.65 | 34 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $131.31 | 97.90% | $139.12 | 21 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $130.55 | 97.72% | $142.33 | 35 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $131.16 | 91.07% | $147.11 | 32 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $131.42 | 92.85% | $153.05 | 43 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $131.99 | 92.84% | $158.87 | 33 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $133.31 | 89.84% | $164.84 | 39 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $133.97 | 89.87% | $170.70 | 51 |
| 2027-07-16 | 248 天 | $133.51 | 87.27% | $172.93 | 51 |
| 2027-10-15 | 339 天 | $136.30 | 86.69% | $193.23 | 52 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 109.32%
- 60 天
- 97.76%
- 90 天
- 92.65%
- 180 天
- 90.75%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 303 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 4 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 4 次中 0 次
- 0% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 25.0%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 166.3%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-02 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-09 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-03 | 收盘后 | 17.0% | +34.8% | 2.05× |
| 2025-06-02 | 收盘后 | 22.3% | +168.6% | 7.56× |
| 2025-03-04 | 收盘后 | 31.2% | +209.7% | 6.72× |
| 2024-12-02 | 收盘后 | 29.3% | +252.0% | 8.59× |
| 2024-09-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-27 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。