股票 · 期权分析
CRM 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $213.48
- 30D ATM IV
- 52.98%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 98
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +3.64
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.856
▲ +1.60 pts 较前一交易日
概览
CRM 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 53.0%,相当于未来一个月约 ±15.2% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 98% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 3.64 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 14%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2026-11-25(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±9.8% 的波动,CRM 实际平均波动 15.8%,6 次中有 2 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 52.98%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +3.64
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- -0.07
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.856
对应 30 天内约 ±15.2% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.3%。
高于过去一年中 98% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 3.64 个点。
高于过去一年中 79% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值低 0.07 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 14%。
高于过去一年中 23% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 98%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 94%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 99%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 94%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $213.48
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $212.51
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 47.53%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 45.34%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 45.07%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 432,201
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.12
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 348 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 52.98% | +3.64 | 0.856 | $213.48 |
| 2026-11-09 | 51.39% | +3.48 | 0.876 | $214.94 |
| 2026-11-06 | 53.37% | +3.57 | 0.871 | $213.65 |
| 2026-11-05 | 54.90% | +2.55 | 0.856 | $222.41 |
| 2026-11-04 | 51.10% | +3.17 | 0.873 | $227.11 |
| 2026-11-03 | 52.24% | +1.84 | 0.887 | $222.20 |
| 2026-11-02 | 51.26% | +1.44 | 0.908 | $226.18 |
| 2026-10-30 | 47.31% | +1.95 | 0.969 | $229.17 |
| 2026-10-29 | 43.87% | -0.30 | 1.017 | $230.90 |
| 2026-10-28 | 43.01% | +1.17 | 1.037 | $242.11 |
| 2026-10-27 | 42.75% | +1.36 | 1.058 | $240.89 |
| 2026-10-26 | 43.58% | +2.76 | 1.034 | $247.61 |
| 2026-10-23 | 43.45% | +2.42 | 1.042 | $248.57 |
| 2026-10-22 | 42.76% | +1.12 | 1.043 | $250.29 |
| 2026-10-21 | 41.74% | +1.22 | 1.055 | $241.78 |
| 2026-10-20 | 41.46% | +1.37 | 1.062 | $242.43 |
| 2026-10-19 | 41.62% | +1.21 | 1.058 | $242.45 |
| 2026-10-16 | 42.21% | +2.17 | 1.052 | $240.70 |
| 2026-10-15 | 41.00% | -0.01 | 1.050 | $246.74 |
| 2026-10-14 | 41.71% | +0.34 | 1.042 | $235.95 |
| 2026-10-13 | 39.62% | +0.03 | 1.090 | $238.01 |
| 2026-10-09 | 38.33% | +0.97 | 1.102 | $229.13 |
| 2026-10-08 | 38.84% | +2.05 | 1.090 | $227.80 |
| 2026-10-07 | 37.95% | -0.92 | 1.118 | $224.56 |
| 2026-10-06 | 37.91% | +0.65 | 1.119 | $224.99 |
| 2026-10-05 | 38.45% | +0.83 | 1.121 | $229.79 |
| 2026-10-02 | 38.63% | +1.10 | 1.130 | $234.69 |
| 2026-10-01 | 39.38% | +1.75 | 1.130 | $236.69 |
| 2026-09-30 | 39.48% | +0.58 | 1.117 | $229.57 |
| 2026-09-29 | 40.95% | +0.47 | 1.082 | $225.31 |
| 2026-09-28 | 40.23% | -0.17 | 1.094 | $227.27 |
| 2026-09-25 | 38.43% | -0.24 | 1.136 | $234.02 |
| 2026-09-24 | 38.93% | +0.08 | 1.118 | $238.22 |
| 2026-09-23 | 40.42% | -0.19 | 1.092 | $237.58 |
| 2026-09-22 | 39.98% | +0.82 | 1.091 | $233.28 |
| 2026-09-21 | 39.40% | +0.92 | 1.108 | $236.42 |
| 2026-09-18 | 38.00% | +0.90 | 1.135 | $237.92 |
| 2026-09-17 | 38.75% | +0.64 | 1.119 | $242.85 |
| 2026-09-16 | 40.67% | +1.42 | 1.090 | $250.54 |
| 2026-09-15 | 41.87% | +0.33 | 1.074 | $255.65 |
| 2026-09-14 | 40.95% | +1.34 | 1.098 | $259.43 |
| 2026-09-11 | 38.13% | +0.69 | 1.126 | $247.72 |
| 2026-09-10 | 39.40% | +1.57 | 1.103 | $243.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | 40.07% | +0.78 | 1.086 | $244.16 |
| 2026-09-08 | 39.81% | +2.25 | 1.070 | $249.12 |
| 2026-09-04 | 37.95% | -0.29 | 1.112 | $259.23 |
| 2026-09-03 | 37.88% | -0.10 | 1.087 | $264.43 |
| 2026-09-02 | 37.34% | +1.01 | 1.088 | $256.93 |
| 2026-09-01 | 38.57% | +0.96 | 1.059 | $258.11 |
| 2026-08-31 | 37.79% | -0.81 | 1.063 | $257.54 |
| 2026-08-28 | 37.94% | -1.26 | 1.057 | $256.00 |
| 2026-08-27 | 40.73% | -0.60 | 1.038 | $252.05 |
| 2026-08-26 | 49.56% | +0.77 | 0.884 | $205.62 |
| 2026-08-25 | 50.03% | -0.03 | 0.878 | $205.69 |
| 2026-08-24 | 50.54% | -0.89 | 0.886 | $209.06 |
| 2026-08-21 | 48.89% | -1.05 | 0.907 | $209.17 |
| 2026-08-20 | 49.03% | -1.27 | 0.907 | $205.43 |
| 2026-08-19 | 51.12% | -2.41 | 0.888 | $206.09 |
| 2026-08-18 | 49.88% | -1.08 | 0.897 | $196.14 |
| 2026-08-17 | 49.78% | -1.91 | 0.895 | $190.97 |
| 2025-10-22 | 32.78% | +0.59 | 1.124 | $256.64 |
| 2025-10-21 | 33.27% | +0.43 | 1.115 | $263.41 |
| 2025-10-20 | 34.03% | +1.14 | 1.114 | $254.28 |
| 2025-10-17 | 35.90% | +0.94 | 1.080 | $243.08 |
| 2025-10-16 | 40.06% | +1.60 | 1.022 | $246.00 |
| 2025-10-15 | 38.87% | -1.54 | 1.068 | $236.58 |
| 2025-10-14 | 38.73% | -1.14 | 1.064 | $239.77 |
| 2025-10-10 | 39.57% | +0.05 | 1.038 | $241.68 |
| 2025-10-09 | 37.09% | -0.12 | 1.069 | $245.33 |
| 2025-10-08 | 37.45% | +0.08 | 1.071 | $240.43 |
| 2025-10-07 | 38.58% | -0.84 | 1.032 | $239.74 |
| 2025-10-06 | 37.52% | +0.35 | 1.065 | $245.78 |
| 2025-10-03 | 33.95% | +1.15 | 1.122 | $240.36 |
| 2025-10-02 | 34.09% | +0.54 | 1.119 | $238.88 |
| 2025-10-01 | 34.06% | -0.69 | 1.115 | $235.69 |
| 2025-09-30 | 33.24% | -0.21 | 1.127 | $237.00 |
| 2025-09-29 | 32.12% | +0.01 | 1.127 | $245.10 |
| 2025-09-26 | 31.05% | -0.39 | 1.159 | $243.43 |
| 2025-09-25 | 31.99% | +0.20 | 1.146 | $240.95 |
| 2025-09-24 | 31.60% | -0.35 | 1.150 | $245.89 |
| 2025-09-23 | 32.11% | +0.08 | 1.137 | $244.56 |
| 2025-09-22 | 30.94% | +1.57 | 1.151 | $249.69 |
| 2025-09-19 | 29.56% | +0.19 | 1.184 | $247.09 |
| 2025-09-18 | 30.41% | +0.70 | 1.162 | $244.28 |
| 2025-09-17 | 30.11% | +0.53 | 1.145 | $242.21 |
| 2025-09-16 | 30.62% | +0.18 | 1.127 | $239.31 |
| 2025-09-15 | 30.07% | +0.47 | 1.126 | $242.52 |
| 2025-09-12 | 28.61% | +0.61 | 1.141 | $242.76 |
| 2025-09-11 | 29.02% | +1.01 | 1.142 | $246.28 |
| 2025-09-10 | 29.39% | +4.19 | 1.106 | $242.57 |
| 2025-09-09 | 27.65% | +1.24 | 1.143 | $252.06 |
| 2025-09-08 | 27.70% | +0.01 | 1.121 | $252.27 |
| 2025-09-05 | 27.42% | +0.80 | 1.135 | $250.76 |
| 2025-09-04 | 27.31% | +0.39 | 1.124 | $244.01 |
| 2025-09-03 | 43.36% | +2.78 | 0.864 | $256.45 |
| 2025-09-02 | 45.15% | +2.39 | 0.814 | $252.86 |
| 2025-08-29 | 43.83% | +0.67 | 0.815 | $256.25 |
| 2025-08-28 | 43.70% | +1.06 | 0.806 | $254.53 |
| 2025-08-27 | 43.30% | +1.50 | 0.820 | $250.16 |
| 2025-08-26 | 44.95% | +4.24 | 0.801 | $243.74 |
| 2025-08-25 | 44.19% | +1.16 | 0.806 | $247.87 |
| 2025-08-22 | 44.43% | +0.09 | 0.798 | $248.29 |
| 2025-08-21 | 45.18% | +2.04 | 0.798 | $245.83 |
| 2025-08-20 | 44.65% | -3.10 | 0.804 | $246.45 |
| 2025-08-19 | 45.00% | -0.59 | 0.796 | $246.00 |
| 2025-08-18 | 44.24% | +1.67 | 0.814 | $243.97 |
| 2025-08-15 | 44.15% | +1.34 | 0.811 | $242.44 |
| 2025-08-14 | 45.35% | +0.25 | 0.796 | $233.37 |
| 2025-08-13 | 44.87% | +0.07 | 0.822 | $237.03 |
| 2025-08-12 | 45.13% | -1.30 | 0.837 | $231.66 |
| 2025-08-11 | 44.44% | +3.52 | 0.827 | $232.68 |
| 2025-08-08 | 43.43% | +1.29 | 0.819 | $240.51 |
| 2025-08-07 | 43.66% | +3.06 | 0.814 | $240.88 |
| 2025-08-06 | 42.24% | +1.32 | 0.815 | $249.17 |
| 2025-08-05 | 43.39% | +3.22 | 0.802 | $247.49 |
| 2025-08-04 | 41.83% | +2.71 | 0.820 | $252.32 |
| 2025-08-01 | 40.22% | +3.03 | 0.858 | $250.74 |
| 2025-07-31 | 40.08% | +1.88 | 0.852 | $258.33 |
| 2025-07-30 | 38.66% | -1.91 | 0.865 | $264.81 |
| 2025-07-29 | 36.48% | +1.14 | 0.915 | $267.39 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 348 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 46.62% | 43.74% | 41.13% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 46.92% | 43.12% | 41.12% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 47.00% | 43.02% | 41.30% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 46.85% | 42.92% | 41.40% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 46.97% | 43.08% | 41.64% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 47.30% | 43.18% | 42.13% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 47.76% | 43.48% | 42.30% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 48.22% | 44.06% | 42.54% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 48.56% | 44.31% | 42.94% |
| ATM | 48.80% | 44.39% | 43.28% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 48.90% | 44.61% | 43.35% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 48.98% | 44.85% | 43.34% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 49.46% | 44.99% | 43.70% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 50.41% | 45.51% | 44.14% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 50.93% | 46.17% | 44.80% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 51.54% | 46.65% | 45.08% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 52.66% | 47.53% | 45.68% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 54.64% | 48.70% | 47.81% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 58.92% | 53.55% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $212.45 | 48.80% | 50.93% | 46.97% | +3.96 | +0.15 | 22 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $212.55 | 44.39% | 46.17% | 43.08% | +3.09 | +0.24 | 29 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $212.80 | 43.28% | 44.80% | 41.64% | +3.16 | -0.05 | 24 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $213.04 | 53.27% | 55.16% | 51.73% | +3.43 | +0.17 | 17 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $212.42 | 52.95% | 54.68% | 51.00% | +3.67 | -0.11 | 18 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $213.29 | 51.36% | 53.77% | 49.71% | +4.06 | +0.38 | 26 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $212.64 | 50.28% | 52.51% | 47.91% | +4.60 | -0.07 | 14 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $213.60 | 46.82% | 48.84% | 45.31% | +3.54 | +0.26 | 26 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $214.58 | 44.89% | 46.85% | 43.69% | +3.16 | +0.38 | 24 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $215.05 | 46.49% | 48.11% | 45.39% | +2.71 | +0.26 | 29 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $216.57 | 44.84% | 46.45% | 43.59% | +2.86 | +0.18 | 33 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $217.41 | 45.59% | 47.49% | 44.34% | +3.15 | +0.33 | 39 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $219.53 | 45.72% | 47.07% | 43.97% | +3.10 | -0.20 | 41 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $212.45 | 48.80% | $212.66 | 22 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $212.55 | 44.39% | $213.12 | 29 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $212.80 | 43.28% | $213.73 | 24 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $213.04 | 53.27% | $215.04 | 17 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $212.42 | 52.95% | $214.96 | 18 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $213.29 | 51.36% | $216.24 | 26 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $212.64 | 50.28% | $215.90 | 14 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $213.60 | 46.82% | $217.88 | 26 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $214.58 | 44.89% | $220.65 | 24 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $215.05 | 46.49% | $223.42 | 29 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $216.57 | 44.84% | $228.34 | 33 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $217.41 | 45.59% | $231.40 | 39 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $219.53 | 45.72% | $239.98 | 41 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 52.98%
- 60 天
- 47.53%
- 90 天
- 45.34%
- 180 天
- 45.07%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 2 次
- 33% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 9.8%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 15.8%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 收盘后 | 9.0% | +22.6% | 2.50× |
| 2026-05-27 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-03 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-03 | 收盘后 | 9.9% | -25.5% | 2.57× |
| 2025-05-28 | 收盘后 | 9.2% | -30.8% | 3.35× |
| 2025-02-26 | 收盘后 | 10.9% | -4.0% | 0.37× |
| 2024-12-03 | 收盘后 | 9.3% | +11.0% | 1.18× |
| 2024-08-28 | 收盘后 | 10.2% | -0.7% | 0.07× |
| 2024-05-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-28 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。