股票 · 期权分析
CRWD 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $225.76
- 30D ATM IV
- 72.22%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 98
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +7.98
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.894
▲ +1.95 pts 较前一交易日
概览
CRWD 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 72.2%,相当于未来一个月约 ±20.7% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 98% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 7.98 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 7% 的交易日差距比这更大。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 11%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2026-11-25(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±9.2% 的波动,CRWD 实际平均波动 38.2%,6 次中有 0 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 72.22%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +7.98
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- -0.11
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.894
对应 30 天内约 ±20.7% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.5%。
高于过去一年中 98% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 7.98 个点。
高于过去一年中 93% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值低 0.11 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 11%。
高于过去一年中 24% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 98%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 94%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 99%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 94%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $225.76
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $225.64
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 65.21%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 64.59%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 62.06%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 792,349
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.74
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 343 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 72.22% | +7.98 | 0.894 | $225.76 |
| 2026-11-09 | 70.27% | +6.33 | 0.890 | $228.58 |
| 2026-11-06 | 72.73% | +11.11 | 0.868 | $216.90 |
| 2026-11-05 | 74.27% | +11.33 | 0.883 | $217.20 |
| 2026-11-04 | 70.39% | +5.77 | 0.892 | $241.00 |
| 2026-11-03 | 69.02% | +6.23 | 0.908 | $244.68 |
| 2026-11-02 | 69.29% | +6.28 | 0.923 | $241.81 |
| 2026-10-30 | 66.32% | +5.47 | 0.958 | $250.43 |
| 2026-10-29 | 60.52% | +2.93 | 1.019 | $261.15 |
| 2026-10-28 | 60.96% | +2.97 | 0.964 | $266.66 |
| 2026-10-27 | 59.64% | +0.69 | 1.002 | $268.02 |
| 2026-10-26 | 58.40% | +2.52 | 1.020 | $261.83 |
| 2026-10-23 | 59.71% | +3.32 | 1.016 | $257.57 |
| 2026-10-22 | 58.01% | +3.80 | 1.027 | $237.94 |
| 2026-10-21 | 54.64% | +3.38 | 1.029 | $239.34 |
| 2026-10-20 | 53.42% | +3.81 | 1.045 | $227.37 |
| 2026-10-19 | 53.88% | +3.79 | 1.042 | $228.10 |
| 2026-10-16 | 56.32% | +4.13 | 1.037 | $227.39 |
| 2026-10-15 | 51.78% | +1.40 | 1.090 | $244.57 |
| 2026-10-14 | 53.56% | +0.36 | 1.089 | $249.29 |
| 2026-10-13 | 51.53% | +1.00 | 1.103 | $261.21 |
| 2026-10-09 | 49.24% | -0.26 | 1.127 | $275.04 |
| 2026-10-08 | 49.94% | +0.43 | 1.120 | $263.01 |
| 2026-10-07 | 48.25% | +1.15 | 1.156 | $265.44 |
| 2026-10-06 | 50.00% | -0.23 | 1.135 | $278.86 |
| 2026-10-05 | 50.06% | -0.10 | 1.133 | $272.67 |
| 2026-10-02 | 50.68% | +0.99 | 1.141 | $270.04 |
| 2026-10-01 | 53.16% | +0.17 | 1.111 | $266.09 |
| 2026-09-30 | 52.69% | +0.41 | 1.108 | $264.75 |
| 2026-09-29 | 55.23% | +1.22 | 1.090 | $262.74 |
| 2026-09-28 | 56.19% | -0.66 | 1.071 | $259.25 |
| 2026-09-25 | 53.10% | -2.27 | 1.098 | $252.13 |
| 2026-09-24 | 53.59% | -2.59 | 1.116 | $259.67 |
| 2026-09-23 | 54.43% | +0.06 | 1.131 | $262.49 |
| 2026-09-22 | 54.02% | -0.44 | 1.085 | $250.06 |
| 2026-09-21 | 53.11% | -0.23 | 1.097 | $249.35 |
| 2026-09-18 | 51.32% | -0.23 | 1.128 | $237.65 |
| 2026-09-17 | 54.36% | -0.19 | 1.104 | $245.70 |
| 2026-09-16 | 54.81% | +0.88 | 1.106 | $241.36 |
| 2026-09-15 | 56.70% | +0.45 | 1.081 | $242.49 |
| 2026-09-14 | 56.42% | +0.77 | 1.048 | $235.38 |
| 2026-09-11 | 49.18% | +0.64 | 1.110 | $206.74 |
| 2026-09-10 | 52.04% | -0.45 | 1.061 | $208.86 |
| 2026-09-09 | 50.76% | -0.46 | 1.064 | $207.80 |
| 2026-09-08 | 51.20% | -0.40 | 1.064 | $210.02 |
| 2026-09-04 | 49.12% | +0.53 | 1.077 | $213.10 |
| 2026-09-03 | 50.96% | +2.43 | 1.044 | $214.97 |
| 2026-09-02 | 51.30% | -0.90 | 1.044 | $203.42 |
| 2026-09-01 | 52.37% | -1.57 | 1.026 | $215.07 |
| 2026-08-31 | 51.83% | -0.31 | 1.047 | $231.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | 49.76% | +0.53 | 1.061 | $218.40 |
| 2026-08-27 | 51.85% | +0.70 | 1.045 | $227.96 |
| 2026-08-26 | 63.24% | -1.11 | 0.880 | $189.18 |
| 2026-08-25 | 60.94% | -0.00 | 0.914 | $185.38 |
| 2026-08-24 | 62.30% | +0.94 | 0.901 | $190.68 |
| 2026-08-21 | 60.80% | +0.16 | 0.923 | $191.95 |
| 2026-08-20 | 61.63% | +0.97 | 0.924 | $190.34 |
| 2026-08-19 | 59.15% | +2.53 | 0.937 | $201.63 |
| 2025-10-22 | 39.99% | +2.49 | 1.093 | $500.11 |
| 2025-10-21 | 39.08% | +1.78 | 1.083 | $503.95 |
| 2025-10-20 | 39.45% | +3.25 | 1.068 | $503.61 |
| 2025-10-17 | 41.13% | +3.81 | 1.053 | $484.65 |
| 2025-10-16 | 45.69% | +1.54 | 1.006 | $482.23 |
| 2025-10-15 | 41.46% | -0.30 | 1.053 | $489.02 |
| 2025-10-14 | 40.16% | +3.13 | 1.087 | $488.94 |
| 2025-10-10 | 40.97% | +1.80 | 1.092 | $493.66 |
| 2025-10-09 | 39.47% | +2.83 | 1.101 | $509.13 |
| 2025-10-08 | 40.76% | +0.18 | 1.075 | $509.95 |
| 2025-10-07 | 39.09% | +1.06 | 1.074 | $484.62 |
| 2025-10-06 | 38.44% | +2.10 | 1.091 | $495.95 |
| 2025-10-03 | 36.66% | +0.93 | 1.121 | $489.88 |
| 2025-10-02 | 37.17% | +1.29 | 1.126 | $496.80 |
| 2025-10-01 | 37.21% | +3.02 | 1.101 | $499.96 |
| 2025-09-30 | 38.69% | +1.56 | 1.075 | $490.38 |
| 2025-09-29 | 37.63% | +2.70 | 1.106 | $488.45 |
| 2025-09-26 | 36.47% | +1.18 | 1.131 | $481.42 |
| 2025-09-25 | 38.52% | +0.31 | 1.095 | $473.09 |
| 2025-09-24 | 38.07% | +0.14 | 1.102 | $476.33 |
| 2025-09-23 | 38.56% | +2.79 | 1.101 | $484.10 |
| 2025-09-22 | 38.05% | -0.77 | 1.102 | $493.14 |
| 2025-09-19 | 36.43% | -0.24 | 1.123 | $502.55 |
| 2025-09-18 | 40.49% | -0.00 | 1.056 | $502.63 |
| 2025-09-17 | 39.17% | +1.34 | 1.039 | $445.50 |
| 2025-09-16 | 39.56% | +1.65 | 1.054 | $444.98 |
| 2025-09-15 | 37.69% | +1.17 | 1.082 | $444.77 |
| 2025-09-12 | 37.04% | +1.05 | 1.071 | $436.10 |
| 2025-09-11 | 36.22% | +0.94 | 1.080 | $433.38 |
| 2025-09-10 | 35.68% | -0.98 | 1.084 | $424.87 |
| 2025-09-09 | 34.24% | +1.00 | 1.103 | $423.51 |
| 2025-09-08 | 34.89% | +1.55 | 1.079 | $428.06 |
| 2025-09-05 | 33.69% | +2.55 | 1.115 | $417.63 |
| 2025-09-04 | 34.78% | +1.94 | 1.071 | $412.46 |
| 2025-09-03 | 34.68% | +0.94 | 1.076 | $413.20 |
| 2025-09-02 | 36.88% | +0.97 | 1.039 | $413.50 |
| 2025-08-29 | 34.82% | +2.42 | 1.045 | $423.70 |
| 2025-08-28 | 35.83% | +1.06 | 1.022 | $442.00 |
| 2025-08-27 | 48.01% | +2.37 | 0.867 | $422.61 |
| 2025-08-26 | 51.07% | +2.31 | 0.810 | $417.60 |
| 2025-08-25 | 50.98% | +3.55 | 0.835 | $418.83 |
| 2025-08-22 | 49.61% | +3.16 | 0.850 | $420.55 |
| 2025-08-21 | 53.49% | +3.00 | 0.831 | $414.06 |
| 2025-08-20 | 53.16% | +2.95 | 0.826 | $419.17 |
| 2025-08-19 | 53.52% | +3.78 | 0.826 | $418.60 |
| 2025-08-18 | 52.52% | +1.98 | 0.837 | $426.34 |
| 2025-08-15 | 52.10% | +2.77 | 0.848 | $427.90 |
| 2025-08-14 | 53.05% | +2.36 | 0.829 | $424.86 |
| 2025-08-13 | 51.55% | +4.43 | 0.841 | $432.12 |
| 2025-08-12 | 51.60% | +2.58 | 0.840 | $435.80 |
| 2025-08-11 | 52.27% | +3.69 | 0.841 | $426.43 |
| 2025-08-08 | 51.94% | +4.23 | 0.852 | $424.49 |
| 2025-08-07 | 54.73% | +3.17 | 0.821 | $425.00 |
| 2025-08-06 | 50.42% | +4.89 | 0.857 | $451.69 |
| 2025-08-05 | 50.14% | +2.12 | 0.863 | $441.75 |
| 2025-08-04 | 48.66% | +3.56 | 0.876 | $454.86 |
| 2025-08-01 | 50.39% | +2.92 | 0.874 | $446.66 |
| 2025-07-31 | 47.51% | +2.73 | 0.887 | $454.57 |
| 2025-07-30 | 45.94% | -2.30 | 0.911 | $463.15 |
| 2025-07-29 | 44.54% | +3.16 | 0.943 | $465.51 |
| 2025-07-28 | 41.41% | +3.78 | 1.000 | $472.18 |
| 2025-07-25 | 38.79% | +2.79 | 1.081 | $467.92 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 343 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 343 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 73.62% | 65.48% | 60.74% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 73.31% | 65.69% | 60.80% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 73.67% | 65.93% | 60.96% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 74.17% | 66.47% | 61.37% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 74.77% | 67.02% | 61.71% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 75.13% | 67.23% | 62.25% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 75.24% | 68.16% | 62.48% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 75.92% | 68.54% | 63.00% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 76.47% | 69.01% | 63.79% |
| ATM | 77.33% | 69.81% | 64.16% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 78.24% | 70.11% | 64.77% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 78.87% | 71.33% | 66.62% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 79.32% | 71.67% | 66.52% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 80.18% | 72.48% | 68.90% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 81.39% | 73.77% | 67.98% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 82.39% | 75.37% | 69.08% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 84.35% | 76.76% | 70.17% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 87.22% | 82.34% | 73.90% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 92.23% | 86.54% | 78.94% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $225.60 | 77.33% | 81.39% | 74.77% | +6.61 | +0.75 | 43 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $225.70 | 69.81% | 73.77% | 67.02% | +6.75 | +0.58 | 52 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $225.90 | 64.16% | 67.98% | 61.71% | +6.27 | +0.69 | 35 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $226.05 | 73.69% | 77.78% | 71.25% | +6.52 | +0.83 | 31 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $225.58 | 72.03% | 75.88% | 67.71% | +8.17 | -0.24 | 30 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $226.42 | 69.14% | 72.76% | 66.80% | +5.96 | +0.64 | 74 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $225.85 | 67.55% | 71.41% | 66.16% | +5.25 | +1.23 | 27 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $226.74 | 64.61% | 66.77% | 62.07% | +4.69 | -0.19 | 79 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $226.10 | 64.58% | 63.82% | 61.22% | +2.60 | -2.06 | 38 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $227.30 | 65.27% | 65.17% | 61.90% | +3.27 | -1.73 | 88 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $228.45 | 61.93% | 64.49% | 60.38% | +4.11 | +0.50 | 44 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $230.08 | 62.22% | 65.46% | 59.72% | +5.74 | +0.37 | 99 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $232.41 | 61.21% | 64.22% | 59.45% | +4.77 | +0.62 | 44 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $225.60 | 77.33% | $226.16 | 43 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $225.70 | 69.81% | $227.21 | 52 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $225.90 | 64.16% | $228.08 | 35 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $226.05 | 73.69% | $230.12 | 31 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $225.58 | 72.03% | $230.60 | 30 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $226.42 | 69.14% | $232.13 | 74 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $225.85 | 67.55% | $232.15 | 27 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $226.74 | 64.61% | $235.46 | 79 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $226.10 | 64.58% | $239.53 | 38 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $227.30 | 65.27% | $245.07 | 88 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $228.45 | 61.93% | $248.09 | 44 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $230.08 | 62.22% | $258.41 | 99 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $232.41 | 61.21% | $272.64 | 44 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 72.22%
- 60 天
- 65.21%
- 90 天
- 64.59%
- 180 天
- 62.06%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 343 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 0 次
- 0% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 9.2%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 38.2%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 收盘后 | 10.5% | +20.5% | 1.95× |
| 2026-06-03 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-03 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-02 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-27 | 收盘后 | 9.4% | -52.3% | 5.59× |
| 2025-06-03 | 收盘后 | 9.2% | -58.7% | 6.40× |
| 2025-05-07 | 开盘前 | 4.5% | -4.7% | 1.03× |
| 2025-03-04 | 收盘后 | 11.5% | -48.3% | 4.20× |
| 2024-11-26 | 收盘后 | 9.8% | -44.7% | 4.53× |
| 2024-08-28 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-28 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。