股票 · 期权分析
CVNA 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $73.02
- 30D ATM IV
- 55.08%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 32
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +6.43
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.003
▲ +0.98 pts 较前一交易日
概览
CVNA 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 55.1%,相当于未来一个月约 ±15.8% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 32% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 6.43 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-27(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±14.2% 的波动,CVNA 实际平均波动 52.6%,6 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 55.08%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +6.43
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +1.12
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.003
对应 30 天内约 ±15.8% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.5%。
高于过去一年中 32% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 6.43 个点。
高于过去一年中 44% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 1.12 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
高于过去一年中 49% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 32%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 13%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 35%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 17%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $73.02
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $72.28
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 54.75%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 55.27%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 59.55%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 518,124
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.53
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 343 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 55.08% | +6.43 | 1.003 | $73.02 |
| 2026-11-09 | 54.10% | +5.96 | 0.991 | $76.26 |
| 2026-11-06 | 55.65% | +9.90 | 1.000 | $73.57 |
| 2026-11-05 | 57.85% | +5.24 | 0.966 | $72.08 |
| 2026-11-04 | 52.47% | +3.03 | 1.001 | $77.56 |
| 2026-11-03 | 56.20% | +5.12 | 0.973 | $71.28 |
| 2026-11-02 | 57.83% | +4.23 | 0.962 | $72.00 |
| 2026-10-30 | 56.03% | +5.31 | 0.974 | $68.29 |
| 2026-10-29 | 56.16% | +4.76 | 0.987 | $68.31 |
| 2026-10-28 | 77.59% | +7.86 | 0.815 | $59.05 |
| 2026-10-27 | 76.51% | +5.83 | 0.834 | $59.23 |
| 2026-10-26 | 76.46% | +5.37 | 0.838 | $56.61 |
| 2026-10-23 | 75.65% | +6.00 | 0.838 | $57.81 |
| 2026-10-22 | 77.08% | +6.38 | 0.822 | $58.72 |
| 2026-10-21 | 76.87% | +6.34 | 0.816 | $59.19 |
| 2026-10-20 | 76.66% | +6.65 | 0.833 | $60.26 |
| 2026-10-19 | 77.78% | +6.84 | 0.834 | $58.71 |
| 2026-10-16 | 81.27% | +8.21 | 0.823 | $58.83 |
| 2026-10-15 | 80.75% | +4.67 | 0.799 | $60.62 |
| 2026-10-14 | 80.41% | +6.32 | 0.831 | $57.96 |
| 2026-10-13 | 80.40% | +3.71 | 0.824 | $60.39 |
| 2026-10-09 | 73.96% | +4.78 | 0.833 | $63.73 |
| 2026-10-08 | 76.49% | +3.06 | 0.822 | $63.20 |
| 2026-10-07 | 74.17% | +2.53 | 0.850 | $62.76 |
| 2026-10-06 | 74.12% | +2.97 | 0.843 | $63.88 |
| 2026-10-05 | 75.88% | +2.26 | 0.834 | $63.72 |
| 2026-10-02 | 76.24% | +5.37 | 0.851 | $63.77 |
| 2026-10-01 | 78.06% | +4.23 | 0.842 | $63.04 |
| 2026-09-30 | 77.98% | +3.44 | 0.833 | $62.54 |
| 2026-09-29 | 71.81% | +3.41 | 0.908 | $63.62 |
| 2026-09-28 | 69.24% | +7.39 | 0.944 | $60.47 |
| 2026-09-25 | 60.27% | +3.09 | 1.039 | $65.06 |
| 2026-09-24 | 57.25% | +3.26 | 1.102 | $64.18 |
| 2026-09-23 | 57.94% | +4.15 | 1.099 | $63.95 |
| 2026-09-22 | 56.38% | +0.72 | 1.111 | $65.40 |
| 2026-09-21 | 56.72% | +1.80 | 1.114 | $67.18 |
| 2026-09-18 | 56.91% | +3.96 | 1.129 | $65.11 |
| 2026-09-17 | 56.60% | +3.39 | 1.134 | $65.84 |
| 2026-09-16 | 60.10% | +4.60 | 1.083 | $65.40 |
| 2026-09-15 | 59.71% | +4.64 | 1.076 | $66.90 |
| 2026-09-14 | 57.29% | +4.05 | 1.115 | $70.87 |
| 2026-09-11 | 56.04% | +3.50 | 1.129 | $69.16 |
| 2026-09-10 | 57.84% | +3.90 | 1.113 | $70.28 |
| 2026-09-09 | 55.72% | -0.67 | 1.139 | $73.41 |
| 2026-09-08 | 57.85% | +2.75 | 1.095 | $74.72 |
| 2026-09-04 | 55.11% | +2.23 | 1.141 | $74.59 |
| 2026-09-03 | 54.85% | +3.00 | 1.139 | $73.43 |
| 2026-09-02 | 54.52% | +2.85 | 1.150 | $74.16 |
| 2026-09-01 | 55.11% | +4.05 | 1.133 | $72.18 |
| 2026-08-31 | 53.93% | +2.80 | 1.155 | $73.46 |
| 2026-08-28 | 53.58% | +2.77 | 1.172 | $74.04 |
| 2026-08-27 | 55.53% | +2.60 | 1.157 | $74.09 |
| 2026-08-26 | 55.05% | +5.23 | 1.154 | $73.95 |
| 2026-08-25 | 56.60% | +3.33 | 1.137 | $75.77 |
| 2026-08-24 | 56.05% | +3.30 | 1.164 | $72.33 |
| 2026-08-21 | 55.85% | +3.81 | 1.159 | $69.91 |
| 2026-08-20 | 55.20% | +5.12 | 1.143 | $71.52 |
| 2026-08-19 | 57.36% | +3.49 | 1.105 | $70.44 |
| 2025-10-22 | 92.73% | +17.49 | 0.798 | $326.88 |
| 2025-10-21 | 82.89% | +15.93 | 0.815 | $355.87 |
| 2025-10-20 | 85.65% | +18.36 | 0.802 | $337.60 |
| 2025-10-17 | 86.63% | +19.76 | 0.807 | $333.81 |
| 2025-10-16 | 88.10% | +15.03 | 0.782 | $344.71 |
| 2025-10-15 | 80.96% | +13.91 | 0.806 | $355.42 |
| 2025-10-14 | 81.12% | +13.09 | 0.810 | $345.91 |
| 2025-10-10 | 86.01% | +14.57 | 0.796 | $329.24 |
| 2025-10-09 | 76.38% | +10.43 | 0.815 | $360.03 |
| 2025-10-08 | 79.23% | +6.72 | 0.785 | $360.91 |
| 2025-10-07 | 77.47% | +9.81 | 0.802 | $370.31 |
| 2025-10-06 | 78.09% | +9.45 | 0.806 | $369.60 |
| 2025-10-03 | 75.67% | +8.61 | 0.818 | $375.72 |
| 2025-10-02 | 71.91% | +6.74 | 0.814 | $394.71 |
| 2025-10-01 | 70.76% | +9.12 | 0.852 | $395.41 |
| 2025-09-30 | 65.59% | +6.18 | 0.928 | $377.24 |
| 2025-09-29 | 63.42% | +8.65 | 0.947 | $392.66 |
| 2025-09-26 | 56.46% | +7.35 | 1.037 | $369.29 |
| 2025-09-25 | 54.21% | +8.13 | 1.088 | $371.38 |
| 2025-09-24 | 50.69% | +4.77 | 1.137 | $374.81 |
| 2025-09-23 | 51.15% | +5.88 | 1.117 | $378.10 |
| 2025-09-22 | 48.76% | +7.57 | 1.166 | $390.85 |
| 2025-09-19 | 47.46% | +6.19 | 1.176 | $391.89 |
| 2025-09-18 | 48.95% | +6.51 | 1.151 | $378.16 |
| 2025-09-17 | 47.00% | +6.89 | 1.198 | $378.06 |
| 2025-09-16 | 50.60% | +7.25 | 1.136 | $364.59 |
| 2025-09-15 | 49.49% | +8.08 | 1.160 | $365.35 |
| 2025-09-12 | 47.58% | +6.90 | 1.190 | $361.77 |
| 2025-09-11 | 48.09% | +7.76 | 1.181 | $354.24 |
| 2025-09-10 | 46.79% | +7.18 | 1.194 | $365.12 |
| 2025-09-09 | 46.38% | +6.55 | 1.183 | $375.00 |
| 2025-09-08 | 46.65% | +6.87 | 1.183 | $372.21 |
| 2025-09-05 | 48.48% | +4.29 | 1.181 | $368.88 |
| 2025-09-04 | 48.25% | +7.31 | 1.168 | $370.17 |
| 2025-09-03 | 48.83% | +5.95 | 1.168 | $362.32 |
| 2025-09-02 | 50.28% | +5.46 | 1.156 | $366.39 |
| 2025-08-29 | 46.09% | +5.31 | 1.208 | $371.92 |
| 2025-08-28 | 46.05% | +3.90 | 1.219 | $377.38 |
| 2025-08-27 | 48.57% | +3.69 | 1.169 | $367.35 |
| 2025-08-26 | 47.71% | +4.29 | 1.182 | $372.20 |
| 2025-08-25 | 49.22% | +4.77 | 1.170 | $362.12 |
| 2025-08-22 | 49.00% | +5.66 | 1.169 | $357.81 |
| 2025-08-21 | 52.37% | +6.59 | 1.103 | $339.07 |
| 2025-08-20 | 50.57% | +7.06 | 1.139 | $338.61 |
| 2025-08-19 | 48.85% | +6.55 | 1.155 | $344.24 |
| 2025-08-18 | 46.52% | +5.48 | 1.182 | $359.51 |
| 2025-08-15 | 46.66% | +4.87 | 1.168 | $349.99 |
| 2025-08-14 | 47.47% | +5.53 | 1.151 | $342.59 |
| 2025-08-13 | 47.25% | +5.95 | 1.146 | $349.87 |
| 2025-08-12 | 45.50% | +7.50 | 1.180 | $345.11 |
| 2025-08-11 | 48.41% | +6.33 | 1.119 | $345.25 |
| 2025-08-08 | 47.33% | +5.49 | 1.104 | $347.56 |
| 2025-08-07 | 46.74% | +5.07 | 1.108 | $357.75 |
| 2025-08-06 | 45.88% | +5.03 | 1.118 | $354.89 |
| 2025-08-05 | 47.75% | +5.17 | 1.089 | $350.74 |
| 2025-08-04 | 46.24% | +4.66 | 1.113 | $360.66 |
| 2025-08-01 | 47.99% | +5.80 | 1.089 | $367.78 |
| 2025-07-31 | 46.18% | +4.58 | 1.068 | $390.17 |
| 2025-07-30 | 68.26% | +7.82 | 0.834 | $333.59 |
| 2025-07-29 | 69.83% | +8.54 | 0.836 | $336.50 |
| 2025-07-28 | 70.47% | +7.98 | 0.837 | $336.33 |
| 2025-07-25 | 71.84% | +7.82 | 0.829 | $332.12 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 343 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 343 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | — | 55.97% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 64.83% | 56.15% | 50.22% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 65.06% | 56.37% | 51.23% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 64.54% | 56.77% | 51.74% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 65.17% | 57.18% | 52.24% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 65.76% | 57.71% | 52.91% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 66.16% | 58.21% | 53.32% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 66.88% | 58.69% | 54.17% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 67.78% | 59.30% | 55.68% |
| ATM | 68.64% | 60.23% | 55.53% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 69.44% | 61.12% | 56.20% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 70.16% | 61.81% | 56.61% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 70.87% | 62.71% | 56.91% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 71.66% | 63.53% | 57.68% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 72.96% | 64.30% | 58.54% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 74.49% | 65.43% | 59.62% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 76.69% | 66.67% | 61.35% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 80.62% | 70.85% | 64.60% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 89.46% | 74.82% | 71.33% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $72.26 | 68.64% | 72.96% | 65.17% | +7.79 | +0.43 | 15 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $72.33 | 60.23% | 64.30% | 57.18% | +7.12 | +0.51 | 24 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $72.30 | 55.53% | 58.54% | 52.24% | +6.30 | -0.14 | 29 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $72.30 | 56.21% | 61.31% | 51.82% | +9.48 | +0.36 | 26 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $72.28 | 54.94% | 59.18% | 53.14% | +6.03 | +1.22 | 19 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $72.53 | 54.79% | 59.70% | 52.06% | +7.64 | +1.09 | 28 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $72.30 | 56.87% | 60.04% | 53.63% | +6.41 | -0.04 | 16 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $72.65 | 54.20% | 57.88% | 51.41% | +6.47 | +0.44 | 25 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $73.15 | 55.58% | 59.32% | 53.15% | +6.17 | +0.65 | 12 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $72.78 | 58.41% | 60.67% | 55.31% | +5.36 | -0.41 | 40 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $73.75 | 59.73% | 62.99% | 58.75% | +4.24 | +1.14 | 16 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $73.51 | 59.05% | 61.06% | 59.92% | +1.14 | +1.44 | 49 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $72.26 | 68.64% | $72.40 | 15 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $72.33 | 60.23% | $72.69 | 24 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $72.30 | 55.53% | $72.82 | 29 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $72.30 | 56.21% | $73.06 | 26 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $72.28 | 54.94% | $73.21 | 19 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $72.53 | 54.79% | $73.67 | 28 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $72.30 | 56.87% | $73.72 | 16 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $72.65 | 54.20% | $74.61 | 25 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $73.15 | 55.58% | $76.35 | 12 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $72.78 | 58.41% | $77.30 | 40 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $73.75 | 59.73% | $81.00 | 16 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $73.51 | 59.05% | $81.62 | 49 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 55.08%
- 60 天
- 54.75%
- 90 天
- 55.27%
- 180 天
- 59.55%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 343 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 1 次
- 17% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 14.2%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 52.6%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 未说明时间 | 4.8% | -7.1% | 1.49× |
| 2026-10-28 | 收盘后 | 16.7% | +15.7% | 0.94× |
| 2026-07-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-18 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-30 | 收盘后 | 14.8% | -78.9% | 5.34× |
| 2025-05-07 | 收盘后 | 16.3% | -72.8% | 4.47× |
| 2025-02-19 | 收盘后 | 16.2% | -75.0% | 4.62× |
| 2024-10-30 | 收盘后 | 16.5% | -66.0% | 3.99× |
| 2024-07-31 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-22 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-02 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。