股票 · 期权分析
DASH 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $178.25
- 30D ATM IV
- 50.27%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 67
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +5.96
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.013
▼ -1.31 pts 较前一交易日
概览
DASH 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 50.3%,相当于未来一个月约 ±14.4% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 242 个交易日中 67% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 5.96 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-28(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±9.1% 的波动,DASH 实际平均波动 15.8%,6 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 50.27%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +5.96
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +1.16
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.013
对应 30 天内约 ±14.4% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.2%。
高于过去一年中 67% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 5.96 个点。
高于过去一年中 81% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 1.16 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 1%。
高于过去一年中 51% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 242 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 67%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 41%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 75%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 48%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $178.25
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $177.03
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 49.35%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 50.94%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 51.81%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 117,097
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.76
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 341 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 50.27% | +5.96 | 1.013 | $178.25 |
| 2026-11-09 | 51.59% | +5.30 | 0.976 | $180.96 |
| 2026-11-06 | 53.70% | +6.19 | 0.963 | $179.67 |
| 2026-11-05 | 58.74% | +6.57 | 0.899 | $179.92 |
| 2026-11-04 | 49.25% | +4.48 | 0.991 | $198.59 |
| 2026-11-03 | 51.77% | +2.44 | 0.970 | $183.32 |
| 2026-11-02 | 51.79% | +3.43 | 0.956 | $190.07 |
| 2026-10-30 | 53.35% | +2.49 | 0.952 | $178.99 |
| 2026-10-29 | 52.44% | +3.02 | 0.952 | $179.00 |
| 2026-10-28 | 64.90% | +5.00 | 0.834 | $169.49 |
| 2026-10-27 | 63.87% | +2.18 | 0.840 | $170.56 |
| 2026-10-26 | 66.56% | +7.24 | 0.809 | $168.44 |
| 2026-10-23 | 63.20% | +3.50 | 0.803 | $179.38 |
| 2026-10-22 | 63.96% | +4.96 | 0.804 | $185.94 |
| 2026-10-21 | 61.78% | +0.77 | 0.813 | $184.45 |
| 2026-10-20 | 58.63% | +5.13 | 0.866 | $191.67 |
| 2026-10-19 | 59.62% | +4.38 | 0.843 | $193.53 |
| 2026-10-16 | 61.61% | +2.61 | 0.814 | $189.15 |
| 2026-10-15 | 58.68% | +4.69 | 0.824 | $193.05 |
| 2026-10-14 | 59.87% | +3.32 | 0.863 | $184.01 |
| 2026-10-13 | 58.33% | +1.06 | 0.818 | $193.09 |
| 2026-10-09 | 55.27% | +3.33 | 0.856 | $196.50 |
| 2026-10-08 | 57.51% | +4.93 | 0.846 | $191.71 |
| 2026-10-07 | 57.07% | -0.57 | 0.855 | $191.24 |
| 2026-10-06 | 57.24% | +4.51 | 0.855 | $193.62 |
| 2026-10-05 | 56.62% | +0.62 | 0.876 | $191.77 |
| 2026-10-02 | 51.91% | +1.48 | 0.973 | $189.15 |
| 2026-10-01 | 50.77% | +0.01 | 1.018 | $182.18 |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.76% | -2.08 | 1.015 | $183.55 |
| 2026-09-29 | 53.32% | +2.77 | 0.954 | $187.10 |
| 2026-09-28 | 52.77% | -0.33 | 0.939 | $178.39 |
| 2026-09-25 | 44.26% | +1.92 | 1.063 | $193.36 |
| 2026-09-24 | 44.39% | +2.19 | 1.087 | $187.53 |
| 2026-09-23 | 42.85% | +2.49 | 1.112 | $189.27 |
| 2026-09-22 | 43.39% | +1.35 | 1.098 | $192.21 |
| 2026-09-21 | 42.92% | +2.19 | 1.092 | $193.83 |
| 2026-09-18 | 40.81% | +0.65 | 1.139 | $192.94 |
| 2026-09-17 | 41.62% | +2.53 | 1.159 | $194.56 |
| 2026-09-16 | 42.87% | +2.56 | 1.128 | $196.76 |
| 2026-09-15 | — | — | — | $198.26 |
| 2026-09-14 | 43.88% | +3.49 | 1.083 | $203.54 |
| 2026-09-11 | 42.06% | +2.42 | 1.182 | $201.95 |
| 2026-09-10 | 44.06% | +2.62 | 1.123 | $201.03 |
| 2026-09-09 | — | — | — | $197.25 |
| 2026-09-08 | 41.36% | +3.05 | 1.114 | $200.44 |
| 2026-09-04 | — | — | — | $211.73 |
| 2026-09-03 | 38.38% | -0.39 | 1.132 | $222.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | — | — | — | $226.24 |
| 2026-09-01 | — | — | — | $225.66 |
| 2026-08-31 | 37.42% | +1.76 | 1.136 | $231.74 |
| 2026-08-28 | 36.07% | +0.89 | 1.188 | $236.74 |
| 2026-08-27 | — | — | — | $231.89 |
| 2026-08-26 | — | — | — | $236.93 |
| 2026-08-25 | — | — | — | $233.50 |
| 2026-08-24 | — | — | — | $229.06 |
| 2026-08-21 | 38.13% | +1.92 | 1.184 | $223.49 |
| 2026-08-20 | 38.82% | +2.87 | 1.165 | $222.36 |
| 2025-10-22 | 54.69% | +8.76 | 0.867 | $252.31 |
| 2025-10-21 | 55.13% | +5.18 | 0.810 | $261.97 |
| 2025-10-20 | 54.24% | +6.74 | 0.818 | $265.37 |
| 2025-10-17 | 58.19% | +6.83 | 0.811 | $263.06 |
| 2025-10-16 | 60.06% | +6.44 | 0.780 | $266.67 |
| 2025-10-15 | 54.39% | +3.41 | 0.790 | $272.61 |
| 2025-10-14 | 50.61% | +5.09 | 0.864 | $270.54 |
| 2025-10-10 | 59.26% | +6.62 | 0.785 | $266.02 |
| 2025-10-09 | 53.58% | +5.00 | 0.814 | $275.44 |
| 2025-10-08 | 53.09% | +5.43 | 0.827 | $281.05 |
| 2025-10-07 | 53.06% | +3.64 | 0.839 | $276.78 |
| 2025-10-06 | 51.40% | +5.90 | 0.865 | $281.74 |
| 2025-10-03 | 46.58% | +4.08 | 0.932 | $271.22 |
| 2025-10-02 | 46.68% | +3.25 | 0.937 | $270.09 |
| 2025-10-01 | 46.06% | +3.03 | 0.932 | $267.64 |
| 2025-09-30 | 41.55% | +3.49 | 1.052 | $271.99 |
| 2025-09-29 | 43.35% | +3.57 | 0.995 | $272.50 |
| 2025-09-26 | 38.04% | +2.74 | 1.131 | $262.47 |
| 2025-09-25 | 38.81% | +2.99 | 1.135 | $262.08 |
| 2025-09-24 | 37.02% | +2.05 | 1.152 | $260.74 |
| 2025-09-23 | 36.49% | +2.43 | 1.162 | $265.75 |
| 2025-09-22 | 36.83% | +2.14 | 1.138 | $262.75 |
| 2025-09-19 | 35.87% | +2.49 | 1.174 | $265.29 |
| 2025-09-18 | 36.12% | +2.06 | 1.169 | $268.07 |
| 2025-09-17 | 36.81% | +0.40 | 1.169 | $259.25 |
| 2025-09-16 | 36.72% | +2.76 | 1.178 | $263.09 |
| 2025-09-15 | 36.65% | +1.03 | 1.161 | $258.09 |
| 2025-09-12 | 34.37% | +2.57 | 1.209 | $257.98 |
| 2025-09-11 | 34.22% | +3.77 | 1.191 | $260.19 |
| 2025-09-10 | 34.84% | +3.85 | 1.194 | $257.43 |
| 2025-09-09 | 34.33% | +3.65 | 1.212 | $256.53 |
| 2025-09-08 | 36.46% | +3.37 | 1.146 | $250.60 |
| 2025-09-05 | 35.63% | +2.65 | 1.172 | $246.85 |
| 2025-09-04 | 34.35% | +3.26 | 1.222 | $248.78 |
| 2025-09-03 | 35.17% | +4.11 | 1.191 | $248.83 |
| 2025-09-02 | 36.03% | +4.20 | 1.164 | $244.10 |
| 2025-08-29 | 33.89% | +3.36 | 1.220 | $245.25 |
| 2025-08-28 | 33.66% | +4.88 | 1.232 | $247.33 |
| 2025-08-27 | 34.01% | +5.72 | 1.228 | $245.65 |
| 2025-08-26 | 34.78% | +3.11 | 1.202 | $248.79 |
| 2025-08-25 | 35.10% | +3.69 | 1.195 | $245.28 |
| 2025-08-22 | 33.56% | +3.88 | 1.219 | $247.32 |
| 2025-08-21 | 36.00% | +3.62 | 1.170 | $245.18 |
| 2025-08-20 | 35.65% | +3.20 | 1.171 | $243.82 |
| 2025-08-19 | 35.13% | +3.98 | 1.134 | $248.37 |
| 2025-08-18 | 34.38% | +3.07 | 1.186 | $253.34 |
| 2025-08-15 | 34.86% | +4.04 | 1.145 | $248.00 |
| 2025-08-14 | 35.18% | +2.78 | 1.138 | $247.44 |
| 2025-08-13 | 34.86% | +4.65 | 1.164 | $254.20 |
| 2025-08-12 | 33.06% | +2.16 | 1.193 | $264.32 |
| 2025-08-11 | 34.37% | +3.36 | 1.169 | $256.09 |
| 2025-08-08 | 33.48% | +3.76 | 1.190 | $259.19 |
| 2025-08-07 | 33.07% | +1.56 | 1.200 | $270.99 |
| 2025-08-06 | 50.20% | +6.87 | 0.834 | $258.08 |
| 2025-08-05 | 49.75% | +5.00 | 0.886 | $255.28 |
| 2025-08-04 | 50.73% | +5.45 | 0.884 | $258.02 |
| 2025-08-01 | 52.25% | +5.81 | 0.855 | $248.35 |
| 2025-07-31 | 49.19% | +4.33 | 0.875 | $250.25 |
| 2025-07-30 | 49.12% | +3.80 | 0.875 | $248.00 |
| 2025-07-29 | 50.14% | +3.51 | 0.853 | $243.20 |
| 2025-07-28 | 49.33% | +4.97 | 0.864 | $246.44 |
| 2025-07-25 | 48.82% | +4.92 | 0.875 | $249.92 |
| 2025-07-24 | 50.27% | +3.61 | 0.843 | $243.69 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 341 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 341 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 59.68% | 52.33% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 59.33% | 54.01% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 59.31% | 55.25% | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 60.87% | 55.41% | 48.93% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 60.75% | 55.95% | 49.33% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 59.90% | 56.24% | 50.61% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 60.34% | 56.90% | 52.80% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 61.00% | 57.44% | 52.70% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 61.84% | 57.59% | 51.61% |
| ATM | 62.39% | 53.68% | 50.43% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 62.56% | 54.61% | 50.83% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 62.77% | 54.95% | 52.24% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 63.19% | 55.45% | 52.33% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 63.76% | 56.29% | 53.70% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 64.56% | 59.04% | 53.76% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 66.03% | 61.38% | 54.51% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | — | 62.55% | — |
| 10Δ 看跌 | — | 63.48% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $177.00 | 62.39% | 64.56% | 60.75% | +3.81 | +0.26 | 10 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $176.60 | 53.68% | 59.04% | 55.95% | +3.09 | +3.82 | 17 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $176.70 | 50.43% | 53.76% | 49.33% | +4.44 | +1.11 | 13 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $177.63 | 48.83% | 55.32% | 49.10% | +6.22 | +3.38 | 11 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $176.93 | 50.46% | 54.29% | 48.36% | +5.93 | +0.87 | 10 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $177.67 | 50.87% | 53.69% | 48.77% | +4.92 | +0.36 | 15 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $178.36 | 49.11% | 53.17% | 46.81% | +6.37 | +0.88 | 20 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $179.34 | 51.48% | 55.51% | 49.44% | +6.07 | +0.99 | 20 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $180.00 | 51.15% | 54.15% | 49.15% | +5.00 | +0.50 | 22 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $179.72 | 51.92% | 53.99% | 49.78% | +4.21 | -0.04 | 26 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $180.62 | 51.37% | 53.43% | 49.87% | +3.56 | +0.29 | 30 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $182.64 | 51.42% | 53.77% | 49.25% | +4.52 | +0.09 | 34 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $177.00 | 62.39% | $177.28 | 10 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $176.60 | 53.68% | $177.30 | 17 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $176.70 | 50.43% | $177.75 | 13 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $177.63 | 48.83% | $179.03 | 11 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $176.93 | 50.46% | $178.85 | 10 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $177.67 | 50.87% | $180.07 | 15 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $178.36 | 49.11% | $182.29 | 20 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $179.34 | 51.48% | $186.04 | 20 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $180.00 | 51.15% | $188.52 | 22 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $179.72 | 51.92% | $192.92 | 26 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $180.62 | 51.37% | $195.49 | 30 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $182.64 | 51.42% | $204.42 | 34 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 50.27%
- 60 天
- 49.35%
- 90 天
- 50.94%
- 180 天
- 51.81%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 341 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 1 次
- 17% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 9.1%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 15.8%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 收盘后 | 5.0% | -9.4% | 1.88× |
| 2026-10-29 | 开盘前 | 4.8% | +5.6% | 1.16× |
| 2026-08-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-18 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-06 | 收盘后 | 11.3% | -13.8% | 1.23× |
| 2025-05-06 | 开盘前 | 10.9% | -7.4% | 0.69× |
| 2025-02-11 | 收盘后 | 11.8% | +15.2% | 1.28× |
| 2024-10-30 | 收盘后 | 10.7% | +43.2% | 4.05× |
| 2024-08-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-15 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。