股票 · 期权分析
DDOG 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $178.40
- 30D ATM IV
- 61.33%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 82
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +6.86
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.987
▼ -1.55 pts 较前一交易日
概览
DDOG 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 61.3%,相当于未来一个月约 ±17.6% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 82% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 6.86 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 10% 的交易日差距比这更大。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 1%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-03(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±12.1% 的波动,DDOG 实际平均波动 4.5%,6 次中有 6 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 61.33%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +6.86
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.07
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.987
对应 30 天内约 ±17.6% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.9%。
高于过去一年中 82% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 6.86 个点。
高于过去一年中 90% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.07 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 1%。
高于过去一年中 43% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 82%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 56%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 87%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 56%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $178.40
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $178.71
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 58.46%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 60.56%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 62.68%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 138,594
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.46
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 341 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 61.33% | +6.86 | 0.987 | $178.40 |
| 2026-11-09 | 62.88% | +4.87 | 0.969 | $179.62 |
| 2026-11-06 | 66.23% | +4.90 | 0.963 | $179.04 |
| 2026-11-05 | 71.78% | +8.02 | 0.924 | $174.60 |
| 2026-11-04 | 64.39% | +4.43 | 0.968 | $188.72 |
| 2026-11-03 | 84.25% | +7.34 | 0.824 | $220.52 |
| 2026-11-02 | 87.24% | +2.37 | 0.818 | $216.10 |
| 2026-10-30 | 85.26% | +6.53 | 0.802 | $235.27 |
| 2026-10-29 | 76.61% | +2.61 | 0.860 | $265.84 |
| 2026-10-28 | 81.09% | +4.35 | 0.812 | $278.41 |
| 2026-10-27 | 79.47% | +0.63 | 0.827 | $280.82 |
| 2026-10-26 | 80.01% | +3.03 | 0.817 | $280.24 |
| 2026-10-23 | 77.62% | +3.76 | 0.840 | $269.65 |
| 2026-10-22 | 80.40% | +1.50 | 0.786 | $257.75 |
| 2026-10-21 | 73.24% | +2.40 | 0.830 | $273.09 |
| 2026-10-20 | 77.65% | +2.48 | 0.807 | $256.43 |
| 2026-10-19 | 75.08% | +4.19 | 0.835 | $260.36 |
| 2026-10-16 | 77.27% | +1.76 | 0.805 | $247.11 |
| 2026-10-15 | 75.54% | +1.25 | 0.811 | $266.25 |
| 2026-10-14 | 74.52% | -0.77 | 0.827 | $269.33 |
| 2026-10-13 | 69.90% | -2.31 | 0.857 | $283.34 |
| 2026-10-09 | 68.90% | +0.83 | 0.871 | $293.26 |
| 2026-10-08 | 65.07% | -1.61 | 0.915 | $273.80 |
| 2026-10-07 | 68.99% | -3.68 | 0.862 | $271.34 |
| 2026-10-06 | 63.71% | +3.05 | 0.946 | $278.24 |
| 2026-10-05 | 60.38% | +2.00 | 1.018 | $276.42 |
| 2026-10-02 | 62.46% | -3.71 | 0.989 | $277.22 |
| 2026-10-01 | 67.79% | -0.31 | 0.951 | $276.46 |
| 2026-09-30 | 59.14% | +2.12 | 1.080 | $273.85 |
| 2026-09-29 | 58.49% | +3.15 | 1.096 | $268.56 |
| 2026-09-28 | 59.29% | -0.26 | 1.078 | $268.70 |
| 2026-09-25 | 58.49% | +0.41 | 1.085 | $268.13 |
| 2026-09-24 | 57.43% | +1.19 | 1.117 | $256.92 |
| 2026-09-23 | 57.07% | -0.84 | 1.105 | $251.49 |
| 2026-09-22 | 55.91% | +0.55 | 1.118 | $247.48 |
| 2026-09-21 | 56.19% | +2.32 | 1.118 | $245.05 |
| 2026-09-18 | 53.18% | +0.22 | 1.151 | $229.92 |
| 2026-09-17 | 54.21% | +0.55 | 1.138 | $236.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | 56.11% | -0.21 | 1.121 | $230.79 |
| 2026-09-15 | 56.72% | +1.60 | 1.112 | $230.27 |
| 2026-09-14 | 56.95% | +0.53 | 1.112 | $230.05 |
| 2026-09-11 | 53.99% | +1.63 | 1.161 | $221.21 |
| 2026-09-10 | 56.61% | -0.36 | 1.126 | $221.72 |
| 2026-09-09 | 56.68% | +2.77 | 1.148 | $225.27 |
| 2026-09-08 | 56.73% | +1.27 | 1.122 | $210.23 |
| 2026-09-04 | 52.56% | +0.84 | 1.167 | $212.93 |
| 2026-09-03 | 54.89% | -0.80 | 1.143 | $214.76 |
| 2026-09-02 | 56.76% | -1.03 | 1.105 | $209.23 |
| 2026-09-01 | 58.22% | -0.14 | 1.097 | $223.84 |
| 2026-08-31 | 55.96% | +1.09 | 1.124 | $237.04 |
| 2026-08-28 | 55.21% | +0.33 | 1.138 | $236.98 |
| 2026-08-27 | 57.23% | +1.58 | 1.121 | $242.93 |
| 2026-08-26 | 56.25% | -0.08 | 1.155 | $227.67 |
| 2026-08-25 | 55.25% | +2.31 | 1.144 | $222.99 |
| 2026-08-24 | 55.36% | +0.93 | 1.165 | $225.77 |
| 2026-08-21 | 53.02% | +1.27 | 1.184 | $235.62 |
| 2026-08-20 | 55.02% | -0.34 | 1.138 | $232.55 |
| 2025-10-22 | 55.73% | +2.33 | 0.803 | $154.21 |
| 2025-10-21 | 54.24% | +2.38 | 0.837 | $156.25 |
| 2025-10-20 | 55.24% | +4.01 | 0.831 | $156.30 |
| 2025-10-17 | 60.33% | +0.06 | 0.815 | $152.87 |
| 2025-10-16 | 58.38% | +3.57 | 0.850 | $151.17 |
| 2025-10-15 | 57.21% | +1.07 | 0.807 | $160.02 |
| 2025-10-14 | 54.30% | +3.65 | 0.866 | $160.88 |
| 2025-10-10 | 58.14% | +4.13 | 0.854 | $158.74 |
| 2025-10-09 | 53.25% | -0.69 | 0.901 | $164.07 |
| 2025-10-08 | 52.98% | +0.21 | 0.921 | $164.12 |
| 2025-10-07 | 50.09% | -2.68 | 0.928 | $154.52 |
| 2025-10-06 | 50.97% | +0.75 | 0.940 | $157.36 |
| 2025-10-03 | 46.18% | +0.80 | 1.023 | $151.82 |
| 2025-10-02 | 44.07% | -0.15 | 1.061 | $151.57 |
| 2025-10-01 | 43.65% | -0.14 | 1.081 | $152.70 |
| 2025-09-30 | 41.80% | +0.70 | 1.097 | $142.40 |
| 2025-09-29 | 41.27% | +1.68 | 1.097 | $145.26 |
| 2025-09-26 | 39.81% | +0.66 | 1.134 | $139.07 |
| 2025-09-25 | 40.52% | +0.66 | 1.124 | $136.60 |
| 2025-09-24 | 39.57% | +0.58 | 1.142 | $136.57 |
| 2025-09-23 | 41.26% | +0.16 | 1.099 | $137.49 |
| 2025-09-22 | 39.30% | +0.56 | 1.130 | $138.35 |
| 2025-09-19 | 37.24% | +1.71 | 1.166 | $138.82 |
| 2025-09-18 | 37.87% | +0.79 | 1.160 | $136.81 |
| 2025-09-17 | 37.78% | +1.88 | 1.145 | $134.23 |
| 2025-09-16 | 38.28% | +1.13 | 1.152 | $134.59 |
| 2025-09-15 | 38.47% | +1.45 | 1.120 | $138.65 |
| 2025-09-12 | 36.83% | +1.36 | 1.173 | $136.50 |
| 2025-09-11 | 36.78% | +1.25 | 1.157 | $139.15 |
| 2025-09-10 | 37.07% | +2.82 | 1.163 | $139.13 |
| 2025-09-09 | 35.15% | +1.36 | 1.199 | $140.46 |
| 2025-09-08 | 35.27% | +2.23 | 1.186 | $136.44 |
| 2025-09-05 | 35.27% | +2.73 | 1.184 | $136.08 |
| 2025-09-04 | 35.41% | +1.77 | 1.162 | $131.78 |
| 2025-09-03 | 34.64% | +2.82 | 1.199 | $132.60 |
| 2025-09-02 | 34.76% | +2.21 | 1.207 | $134.69 |
| 2025-08-29 | 33.79% | +3.29 | 1.248 | $136.68 |
| 2025-08-28 | 34.38% | +1.77 | 1.206 | $140.96 |
| 2025-08-27 | 37.03% | +2.11 | 1.125 | $131.73 |
| 2025-08-26 | 35.76% | +1.98 | 1.172 | $126.31 |
| 2025-08-25 | 35.56% | +2.58 | 1.171 | $128.38 |
| 2025-08-22 | 34.63% | +4.88 | 1.207 | $131.22 |
| 2025-08-21 | 36.57% | +2.11 | 1.100 | $129.15 |
| 2025-08-20 | 35.81% | +3.55 | 1.145 | $128.46 |
| 2025-08-19 | 35.89% | +3.82 | 1.128 | $128.99 |
| 2025-08-18 | 35.71% | +2.27 | 1.153 | $129.07 |
| 2025-08-15 | 34.76% | +1.11 | 1.147 | $127.25 |
| 2025-08-14 | 35.40% | +1.16 | 1.133 | $124.52 |
| 2025-08-13 | 32.67% | +2.62 | 1.213 | $128.71 |
| 2025-08-12 | 35.66% | +1.85 | 1.104 | $128.96 |
| 2025-08-11 | 35.45% | +0.17 | 1.120 | $128.83 |
| 2025-08-08 | 33.37% | +3.35 | 1.166 | $130.91 |
| 2025-08-07 | 31.80% | +4.51 | 1.191 | $136.38 |
| 2025-08-06 | 49.11% | +2.68 | 0.865 | $136.96 |
| 2025-08-05 | 47.09% | +6.35 | 0.902 | $132.94 |
| 2025-08-04 | 45.99% | +4.17 | 0.880 | $139.13 |
| 2025-08-01 | 49.01% | +2.36 | 0.840 | $135.60 |
| 2025-07-31 | 48.31% | -0.67 | 0.849 | $139.98 |
| 2025-07-30 | 47.59% | +1.09 | 0.833 | $148.88 |
| 2025-07-29 | 45.35% | +1.42 | 0.858 | $150.27 |
| 2025-07-28 | 43.80% | +0.24 | 0.869 | $150.77 |
| 2025-07-25 | 44.79% | +1.03 | 0.826 | $149.84 |
| 2025-07-24 | 44.66% | +1.75 | 0.830 | $146.56 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 341 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 341 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 79.69% | — | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 75.07% | — | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 73.19% | 64.82% | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 73.10% | 64.61% | 58.97% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 73.77% | 63.24% | 59.53% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 73.86% | 63.38% | 59.99% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 74.64% | 65.25% | 61.19% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 75.87% | 67.05% | 62.00% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 76.18% | 66.78% | 62.63% |
| ATM | 76.59% | 68.26% | 63.15% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 77.21% | 68.47% | 66.66% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 78.14% | 68.93% | 63.95% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 78.82% | 69.92% | 64.84% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 79.18% | 70.54% | 66.92% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 80.93% | 71.05% | 66.16% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 82.13% | 72.24% | 66.75% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 87.67% | 74.13% | 68.28% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 95.13% | 79.45% | 73.37% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 107.76% | — | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $178.75 | 76.59% | 80.93% | 73.77% | +7.16 | +0.76 | 15 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $178.87 | 68.26% | 71.05% | 63.24% | +7.81 | -1.11 | 18 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $179.00 | 63.15% | 66.16% | 59.53% | +6.63 | -0.31 | 17 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $179.12 | 62.42% | 66.07% | 59.43% | +6.65 | +0.33 | 15 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $178.65 | 61.19% | 64.67% | 57.78% | +6.88 | +0.03 | 13 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $179.17 | 61.52% | 65.16% | 57.24% | +7.91 | -0.32 | 21 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $179.35 | 60.11% | 65.54% | 57.60% | +7.94 | +1.46 | 12 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $179.60 | 58.04% | 61.96% | 57.21% | +4.75 | +1.54 | 25 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $180.20 | 62.57% | 64.79% | 60.90% | +3.90 | +0.27 | 35 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $180.38 | 61.95% | 65.11% | 60.19% | +4.92 | +0.70 | 28 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $182.31 | 63.56% | 65.67% | 60.85% | +4.82 | -0.30 | 37 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $183.38 | 64.39% | 65.51% | 61.78% | +3.73 | -0.74 | 40 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $178.75 | 76.59% | $179.18 | 15 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $178.87 | 68.26% | $180.02 | 18 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $179.00 | 63.15% | $180.67 | 17 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $179.12 | 62.42% | $181.43 | 15 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $178.65 | 61.19% | $181.51 | 13 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $179.17 | 61.52% | $182.74 | 21 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $179.35 | 60.11% | $183.29 | 12 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $179.60 | 58.04% | $185.15 | 25 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $180.20 | 62.57% | $193.11 | 35 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $180.38 | 61.95% | $195.90 | 28 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $182.31 | 63.56% | $205.80 | 37 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $183.38 | 64.39% | $218.80 | 40 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 61.33%
- 60 天
- 58.46%
- 90 天
- 60.56%
- 180 天
- 62.68%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 341 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 6 次
- 100% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 12.1%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 4.5%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | 未说明时间 | 6.0% | +2.5% | 0.43× |
| 2026-11-04 | 开盘前 | 18.1% | -14.4% | 0.79× |
| 2026-08-06 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-10 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-06 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-07 | 开盘前 | 10.7% | -0.4% | 0.04× |
| 2025-05-06 | 开盘前 | 14.5% | +0.3% | 0.02× |
| 2025-02-13 | 开盘前 | 11.6% | -8.2% | 0.71× |
| 2024-11-07 | 开盘前 | 11.7% | +1.1% | 0.10× |
| 2024-08-08 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-07 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-13 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-07 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。