股票 · 期权分析
DG 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $137.31
- 30D ATM IV
- 44.66%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 79
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +0.34
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.886
▼ -4.76 pts 较前一交易日
概览
DG 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 44.7%,相当于未来一个月约 ±12.8% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 251 个交易日中 79% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 0.34 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 11%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2026-12-03 开盘前。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±11.3% 的波动,DG 实际平均波动 5.2%,5 次中有 4 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 44.66%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +0.34
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +1.18
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.886
对应 30 天内约 ±12.8% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.8%。
高于过去一年中 79% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 0.34 个点。
高于过去一年中 11% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 1.18 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 11%。
高于过去一年中 26% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 251 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 79%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 49%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 78%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 45%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $137.31
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $137.20
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 42.48%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 39.56%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 40.20%
- 使用的到期日数
- 9
- 总未平仓量
- 48,122
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.55
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 341 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 44.66% | +0.34 | 0.886 | $137.31 |
| 2026-11-09 | 49.42% | -1.95 | 0.806 | $136.68 |
| 2026-11-06 | 49.61% | +3.84 | 0.795 | $133.75 |
| 2026-11-05 | 45.42% | +1.64 | 0.886 | $138.00 |
| 2026-11-04 | 44.34% | +1.50 | 0.884 | $141.64 |
| 2026-11-03 | 40.57% | +2.02 | 0.966 | $130.52 |
| 2026-11-02 | 39.41% | +1.66 | 0.979 | $135.78 |
| 2026-10-30 | 41.54% | +1.26 | 0.943 | $132.30 |
| 2026-10-29 | 39.91% | +0.80 | 0.981 | $130.09 |
| 2026-10-28 | 41.80% | -0.05 | 0.927 | $126.17 |
| 2026-10-27 | 39.26% | -1.24 | 0.992 | $126.86 |
| 2026-10-26 | 39.54% | -0.34 | 0.998 | $128.42 |
| 2026-10-23 | 35.38% | +1.15 | 1.068 | $132.69 |
| 2026-10-22 | 34.10% | +2.21 | 1.147 | $139.11 |
| 2026-10-21 | 34.00% | +0.29 | 1.141 | $132.12 |
| 2026-10-20 | 33.55% | +1.05 | 1.123 | $134.19 |
| 2026-10-19 | 33.82% | +1.36 | 1.121 | $133.27 |
| 2026-10-16 | 33.16% | +1.50 | 1.148 | $134.36 |
| 2026-10-15 | 34.13% | +2.00 | 1.140 | $133.89 |
| 2026-10-14 | 34.35% | +1.40 | 1.157 | $129.94 |
| 2026-10-13 | 32.81% | +0.29 | 1.113 | $125.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | 33.17% | +1.75 | 1.125 | $127.23 |
| 2026-10-08 | 32.26% | +1.95 | 1.173 | $124.27 |
| 2026-10-07 | 33.40% | +0.90 | 1.133 | $122.14 |
| 2026-10-06 | 32.24% | +2.31 | 1.186 | $123.27 |
| 2026-10-05 | 33.11% | +1.62 | 1.140 | $119.32 |
| 2026-10-02 | 31.54% | +0.33 | 1.190 | $118.94 |
| 2026-10-01 | 33.81% | +1.55 | 1.124 | $118.93 |
| 2026-09-30 | 32.47% | +1.80 | 1.154 | $119.58 |
| 2026-09-29 | 33.08% | +1.39 | 1.164 | $122.64 |
| 2026-09-28 | 32.88% | +1.65 | 1.159 | $124.37 |
| 2026-09-25 | 33.13% | +0.07 | 1.174 | $124.84 |
| 2026-09-24 | 32.67% | +0.91 | 1.181 | $122.53 |
| 2026-09-23 | 32.74% | +0.30 | 1.139 | $120.60 |
| 2026-09-22 | 32.85% | +0.12 | 1.162 | $122.63 |
| 2026-09-21 | 32.93% | +0.57 | 1.154 | $121.91 |
| 2026-09-18 | 32.17% | +1.11 | 1.160 | $122.41 |
| 2026-09-17 | 32.88% | +0.67 | 1.149 | $124.95 |
| 2026-09-16 | 33.59% | +1.38 | 1.135 | $123.01 |
| 2026-09-15 | 32.55% | +1.76 | 1.177 | $124.70 |
| 2026-09-14 | 33.74% | +0.75 | 1.128 | $129.17 |
| 2026-09-11 | 32.72% | +3.85 | 1.114 | $124.58 |
| 2026-09-10 | 33.34% | +1.40 | 1.087 | $122.99 |
| 2026-09-09 | 33.32% | +3.07 | 1.084 | $124.57 |
| 2026-09-08 | 33.49% | +0.54 | 1.082 | $127.87 |
| 2026-09-04 | 30.86% | +0.35 | 1.129 | $133.21 |
| 2026-09-03 | 31.90% | +0.94 | 1.072 | $131.26 |
| 2026-09-02 | 32.44% | +0.60 | 1.090 | $130.89 |
| 2026-09-01 | 34.53% | +1.18 | 1.045 | $131.09 |
| 2026-08-31 | 33.39% | -0.81 | 1.051 | $126.75 |
| 2026-08-28 | 32.48% | +1.09 | 1.063 | $122.89 |
| 2026-08-27 | 35.30% | -0.21 | 0.940 | $125.89 |
| 2026-08-26 | 46.80% | +0.49 | 0.865 | $122.78 |
| 2026-08-25 | 47.04% | +3.55 | 0.864 | $122.58 |
| 2026-08-24 | 46.80% | +4.91 | 0.866 | $125.33 |
| 2026-08-21 | 47.42% | +2.46 | 0.875 | $123.41 |
| 2026-08-20 | 48.14% | +2.44 | 0.879 | $120.58 |
| 2025-10-22 | 31.67% | +0.68 | 1.170 | $103.58 |
| 2025-10-21 | 33.96% | +1.78 | 1.126 | $105.51 |
| 2025-10-20 | 34.07% | +4.24 | 1.098 | $106.44 |
| 2025-10-17 | 32.91% | +2.15 | 1.149 | $105.74 |
| 2025-10-16 | — | — | — | $103.88 |
| 2025-10-15 | 33.34% | +2.28 | 1.130 | $106.32 |
| 2025-10-14 | 34.96% | +3.23 | 1.050 | $103.71 |
| 2025-10-10 | 34.49% | +2.10 | 1.104 | $99.22 |
| 2025-10-09 | 29.08% | +0.51 | 1.210 | $98.67 |
| 2025-10-08 | 31.02% | +0.19 | 1.144 | $98.16 |
| 2025-10-07 | 31.90% | +2.31 | 1.109 | $96.37 |
| 2025-10-06 | 32.74% | +0.45 | 1.077 | $98.13 |
| 2025-10-03 | 30.01% | +2.39 | 1.139 | $100.21 |
| 2025-10-02 | 28.99% | +2.11 | 1.164 | $101.40 |
| 2025-10-01 | 28.27% | +1.22 | 1.196 | $99.68 |
| 2025-09-30 | 27.72% | +2.63 | 1.167 | $103.35 |
| 2025-09-29 | 29.41% | +2.78 | 1.122 | $102.94 |
| 2025-09-26 | 29.20% | +1.18 | 1.123 | $102.12 |
| 2025-09-25 | 29.79% | +1.23 | 1.107 | $102.85 |
| 2025-09-24 | 28.60% | +0.56 | 1.142 | $104.50 |
| 2025-09-23 | 29.28% | +1.03 | 1.116 | $103.67 |
| 2025-09-22 | 30.06% | +1.36 | 1.066 | $101.86 |
| 2025-09-19 | 29.25% | +2.24 | 1.076 | $102.11 |
| 2025-09-18 | 28.06% | +2.85 | 1.096 | $106.90 |
| 2025-09-17 | 27.46% | +2.28 | 1.105 | $106.14 |
| 2025-09-16 | 28.36% | +2.14 | 1.081 | $104.21 |
| 2025-09-15 | 28.16% | +2.07 | 1.085 | $104.52 |
| 2025-09-12 | 27.92% | +1.59 | 1.082 | $104.40 |
| 2025-09-11 | 28.17% | +0.73 | 1.084 | $105.39 |
| 2025-09-10 | 27.87% | +2.90 | 1.083 | $106.47 |
| 2025-09-09 | 28.47% | +1.40 | 1.061 | $104.55 |
| 2025-09-08 | 27.59% | +2.48 | 1.063 | $108.72 |
| 2025-09-05 | 26.46% | +2.59 | 1.079 | $109.28 |
| 2025-09-04 | 26.76% | +1.82 | 1.074 | $108.44 |
| 2025-09-03 | 26.96% | +2.38 | 1.065 | $109.69 |
| 2025-09-02 | 27.86% | +2.11 | 1.041 | $110.46 |
| 2025-08-29 | 26.53% | +2.30 | 1.053 | $108.76 |
| 2025-08-28 | 26.97% | +3.61 | 1.037 | $111.71 |
| 2025-08-27 | 40.38% | +3.46 | 0.891 | $111.20 |
| 2025-08-26 | 43.39% | +1.43 | 0.773 | $110.50 |
| 2025-08-25 | 44.65% | -0.36 | 0.764 | $112.35 |
| 2025-08-22 | 43.09% | +2.86 | 0.803 | $112.40 |
| 2025-08-21 | 44.32% | +2.22 | 0.786 | $112.49 |
| 2025-08-20 | 42.17% | +2.58 | 0.892 | $114.85 |
| 2025-08-19 | 43.68% | +4.39 | 0.798 | $112.78 |
| 2025-08-18 | 44.26% | +2.32 | 0.780 | $112.30 |
| 2025-08-15 | 43.86% | +2.27 | 0.778 | $112.77 |
| 2025-08-14 | 43.88% | +5.39 | 0.774 | $114.70 |
| 2025-08-13 | 43.37% | +1.92 | 0.780 | $115.79 |
| 2025-08-12 | 44.32% | +0.01 | 0.762 | $115.19 |
| 2025-08-11 | 42.33% | +3.04 | 0.802 | $114.55 |
| 2025-08-08 | 44.07% | +2.00 | 0.775 | $116.32 |
| 2025-08-07 | 43.64% | +2.75 | 0.793 | $115.63 |
| 2025-08-06 | 43.28% | +2.63 | 0.805 | $113.32 |
| 2025-08-05 | 44.53% | +1.65 | 0.776 | $110.86 |
| 2025-08-04 | 43.31% | +3.79 | 0.798 | $110.94 |
| 2025-08-01 | 45.16% | +1.35 | 0.772 | $108.53 |
| 2025-07-31 | 44.19% | +4.12 | 0.783 | $104.90 |
| 2025-07-30 | 34.31% | +2.96 | 1.001 | $105.54 |
| 2025-07-29 | 34.03% | +1.08 | 1.005 | $106.85 |
| 2025-07-28 | 33.76% | +1.83 | 1.019 | $105.81 |
| 2025-07-25 | 31.35% | +1.63 | 1.080 | $107.56 |
| 2025-07-24 | 27.07% | +1.86 | 1.250 | $107.75 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 341 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 341 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20Δ 看涨 | 44.94% | 39.04% | 38.18% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 44.06% | 41.11% | 38.61% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 43.44% | 40.30% | 37.31% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 43.01% | 40.42% | 37.40% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 42.44% | 39.13% | 37.80% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 42.36% | 40.00% | 37.56% |
| ATM | 42.42% | 38.88% | 37.07% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 43.24% | 39.34% | 36.79% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 43.93% | 38.84% | 37.05% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 44.15% | 40.46% | 37.82% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 43.34% | 40.83% | 37.83% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 45.06% | 40.80% | 38.68% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 45.58% | 40.78% | 36.98% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 47.16% | — | 37.65% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 49.89% | — | — |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 54.33% | — | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $136.84 | 42.42% | 45.06% | 44.06% | +1.01 | +2.14 | 13 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $136.90 | 38.88% | 40.80% | 41.11% | -0.31 | +2.07 | 16 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $136.90 | 37.07% | 38.68% | 38.61% | +0.07 | +1.58 | 19 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $137.39 | 46.53% | 47.84% | 47.43% | +0.40 | +1.10 | 12 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $137.32 | 41.81% | 43.47% | 41.07% | +2.40 | +0.46 | 15 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $138.13 | 38.86% | 40.17% | 37.50% | +2.67 | -0.02 | 16 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $138.71 | 40.65% | 42.97% | 38.84% | +4.13 | +0.25 | 21 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $139.13 | 40.00% | 41.87% | 38.92% | +2.94 | +0.39 | 26 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $140.36 | 40.80% | 41.57% | 38.73% | +2.84 | -0.65 | 22 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
9 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $136.84 | 42.42% | $136.94 | 13 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $136.90 | 38.88% | $137.18 | 16 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $136.90 | 37.07% | $137.34 | 19 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $137.39 | 46.53% | $138.94 | 12 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $137.32 | 41.81% | $139.50 | 15 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $138.13 | 38.86% | $141.04 | 16 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $138.71 | 40.65% | $142.82 | 21 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $139.13 | 40.00% | $145.97 | 26 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $140.36 | 40.80% | $150.68 | 22 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 44.66%
- 60 天
- 42.48%
- 90 天
- 39.56%
- 180 天
- 40.20%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 341 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 4 次
- 80% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 11.3%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 5.2%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 开盘前 | 10.4% | +2.5% | 0.24× |
| 2026-06-02 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-12 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-04 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-28 | 开盘前 | 10.3% | +0.5% | 0.04× |
| 2025-06-03 | 开盘前 | 11.0% | +15.8% | 1.44× |
| 2025-03-13 | 开盘前 | 11.0% | +6.8% | 0.62× |
| 2024-12-05 | 开盘前 | 13.6% | +0.1% | 0.01× |
| 2024-08-29 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-30 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-14 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-07 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-31 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。