股票 · 期权分析
EOG 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $151.51
- 30D ATM IV
- 32.56%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 77
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +0.95
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.979
▼ -0.10 pts 较前一交易日
概览
EOG 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 32.6%,相当于未来一个月约 ±9.3% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 221 个交易日中 77% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 0.95 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 2%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-04(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 10 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±3.9% 的波动,EOG 实际平均波动 21.9%,10 次中有 3 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 32.56%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +0.95
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- -0.24
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.979
对应 30 天内约 ±9.3% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.1%。
高于过去一年中 77% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 0.95 个点。
高于过去一年中 16% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值低 0.24 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 2%。
高于过去一年中 46% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 221 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 77%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 33%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 83%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 34%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $151.51
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $152.08
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 31.44%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 31.89%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 32.61%
- 使用的到期日数
- 10
- 总未平仓量
- 53,037
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.41
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 341 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 32.56% | +0.95 | 0.979 | $151.51 |
| 2026-11-09 | 32.66% | +1.64 | 0.981 | $148.43 |
| 2026-11-06 | 33.01% | +2.16 | 0.983 | $147.13 |
| 2026-11-05 | 37.37% | +0.16 | 0.898 | $144.89 |
| 2026-11-04 | 35.62% | +0.32 | 0.922 | $147.06 |
| 2026-11-03 | 36.20% | -0.04 | 0.909 | $155.17 |
| 2026-11-02 | 36.08% | +0.91 | 0.909 | $157.89 |
| 2026-10-30 | 36.15% | +0.76 | 0.920 | $165.54 |
| 2026-10-29 | 33.89% | +1.29 | 0.941 | $162.22 |
| 2026-10-28 | 33.25% | +1.82 | 0.953 | $160.92 |
| 2026-10-27 | 34.70% | -0.66 | 0.921 | $161.10 |
| 2026-10-26 | 35.46% | -0.48 | 0.914 | $163.68 |
| 2026-10-23 | 35.18% | +0.93 | 0.922 | $163.03 |
| 2026-10-22 | 34.84% | +0.91 | 0.927 | $157.96 |
| 2026-10-21 | 33.74% | +0.16 | 0.929 | $157.88 |
| 2026-10-20 | 33.80% | +1.02 | 0.923 | $157.91 |
| 2026-10-19 | 33.27% | +0.82 | 0.938 | $157.65 |
| 2026-10-16 | 33.53% | +1.65 | 0.959 | $158.01 |
| 2026-10-15 | 31.66% | +0.92 | 0.982 | $152.62 |
| 2026-10-14 | 33.83% | +0.45 | 0.924 | $154.19 |
| 2026-10-13 | 35.16% | -1.18 | 0.885 | $153.17 |
| 2026-10-09 | 32.53% | +0.65 | 0.957 | $148.16 |
| 2026-10-08 | 33.74% | +0.71 | 0.940 | $148.51 |
| 2026-10-07 | 34.02% | -0.49 | 0.951 | $144.21 |
| 2026-10-06 | 32.14% | -0.22 | 0.989 | $144.28 |
| 2026-10-05 | 33.52% | -0.40 | 0.945 | $144.08 |
| 2026-10-02 | 31.01% | +0.90 | 1.033 | $141.38 |
| 2026-10-01 | 32.51% | -0.66 | 0.983 | $141.31 |
| 2026-09-30 | 31.19% | +1.07 | 1.035 | $137.76 |
| 2026-09-29 | 32.89% | -0.23 | 0.974 | $139.66 |
| 2026-09-28 | 32.30% | +0.39 | 0.992 | $140.63 |
| 2026-09-25 | 33.24% | +1.13 | 0.969 | $140.35 |
| 2026-09-24 | 31.62% | +1.24 | 1.052 | $142.86 |
| 2026-09-23 | 32.43% | +1.61 | 1.015 | $141.84 |
| 2026-09-22 | 33.15% | +0.73 | 0.998 | $139.52 |
| 2026-09-21 | 33.41% | -0.00 | 0.984 | $141.38 |
| 2026-09-18 | 33.23% | +0.67 | 1.010 | $144.23 |
| 2026-09-17 | 32.92% | +1.59 | 1.006 | $145.47 |
| 2026-09-16 | 34.69% | -1.17 | 0.978 | $144.93 |
| 2026-09-15 | — | — | — | $153.74 |
| 2026-09-14 | — | — | — | $148.54 |
| 2026-09-11 | — | — | — | $147.36 |
| 2026-09-10 | — | — | — | $147.46 |
| 2026-09-09 | — | — | — | $147.01 |
| 2026-09-08 | — | — | — | $145.36 |
| 2026-09-04 | — | — | — | $145.19 |
| 2026-09-03 | — | — | — | $145.96 |
| 2026-09-02 | — | — | — | $148.96 |
| 2026-09-01 | — | — | — | $148.35 |
| 2026-08-31 | — | — | — | $144.96 |
| 2026-08-28 | 31.39% | -0.19 | 0.993 | $143.35 |
| 2026-08-27 | — | — | — | $144.50 |
| 2026-08-26 | — | — | — | $144.84 |
| 2026-08-25 | — | — | — | $146.83 |
| 2026-08-24 | — | — | — | $150.21 |
| 2026-08-21 | — | — | — | $153.05 |
| 2026-08-20 | — | — | — | $152.19 |
| 2025-10-22 | 29.01% | +4.25 | 0.974 | $106.21 |
| 2025-10-21 | 29.22% | +1.87 | 0.949 | $106.04 |
| 2025-10-20 | 28.59% | +3.22 | 0.998 | $106.40 |
| 2025-10-17 | 31.23% | +2.06 | 0.921 | $106.22 |
| 2025-10-16 | 31.81% | +4.35 | 0.988 | $107.25 |
| 2025-10-15 | 33.28% | +2.74 | 0.913 | $108.63 |
| 2025-10-14 | 31.01% | +2.27 | 0.972 | $109.12 |
| 2025-10-10 | 32.94% | +1.83 | 0.940 | $108.07 |
| 2025-10-09 | 30.70% | +2.90 | 0.942 | $111.92 |
| 2025-10-08 | 30.40% | +2.24 | 0.950 | $110.50 |
| 2025-10-07 | 30.29% | +3.24 | 0.958 | $110.45 |
| 2025-10-06 | 30.07% | +2.50 | 0.972 | $110.45 |
| 2025-10-03 | 27.52% | +1.29 | 1.080 | $110.83 |
| 2025-10-02 | 28.98% | +1.48 | 1.025 | $110.40 |
| 2025-10-01 | 28.09% | +2.52 | 1.048 | $111.27 |
| 2025-09-30 | 28.21% | +2.68 | 1.038 | $112.12 |
| 2025-09-29 | 27.22% | +4.25 | 1.046 | $113.35 |
| 2025-09-26 | 26.67% | +2.13 | 1.071 | $117.31 |
| 2025-09-25 | 27.48% | +3.15 | 1.041 | $117.30 |
| 2025-09-24 | 28.34% | +3.15 | 1.021 | $116.70 |
| 2025-09-23 | 30.14% | +4.19 | 0.925 | $115.67 |
| 2025-09-22 | 27.98% | +2.29 | 1.017 | $115.41 |
| 2025-09-19 | 28.82% | +3.13 | 0.996 | $116.00 |
| 2025-09-18 | 29.35% | +2.36 | 0.952 | $118.32 |
| 2025-09-17 | 27.62% | +2.82 | 0.991 | $119.84 |
| 2025-09-16 | 26.01% | +4.33 | 1.050 | $120.84 |
| 2025-09-15 | 29.75% | +2.37 | 0.924 | $117.54 |
| 2025-09-12 | 26.51% | +4.55 | 1.017 | $118.16 |
| 2025-09-11 | 26.21% | +4.73 | 1.012 | $120.00 |
| 2025-09-10 | 27.16% | +2.70 | 1.012 | $120.26 |
| 2025-09-09 | 26.67% | +4.30 | 1.008 | $117.31 |
| 2025-09-08 | 24.62% | +2.30 | 1.090 | $117.65 |
| 2025-09-05 | 26.41% | +3.38 | 1.009 | $117.93 |
| 2025-09-04 | 25.17% | +3.64 | 1.033 | $121.60 |
| 2025-09-03 | 24.65% | +2.69 | 1.079 | $120.58 |
| 2025-09-02 | 23.83% | +2.89 | 1.074 | $126.10 |
| 2025-08-29 | 24.03% | +3.36 | 1.055 | $124.82 |
| 2025-08-28 | 23.31% | +2.19 | 1.083 | $124.34 |
| 2025-08-27 | 23.74% | +6.92 | 1.083 | $122.88 |
| 2025-08-26 | 24.67% | +4.38 | 1.116 | $121.30 |
| 2025-08-25 | 24.50% | +3.43 | 1.063 | $121.43 |
| 2025-08-22 | 23.75% | +3.29 | 1.089 | $121.11 |
| 2025-08-21 | 25.50% | +5.44 | 1.016 | $118.51 |
| 2025-08-20 | 25.07% | +2.87 | 1.055 | $118.36 |
| 2025-08-19 | 25.92% | +3.24 | 1.034 | $117.32 |
| 2025-08-18 | 25.06% | +2.29 | 1.074 | $117.73 |
| 2025-08-15 | — | — | — | $118.99 |
| 2025-08-14 | — | — | — | $119.79 |
| 2025-08-13 | 23.73% | +3.23 | 1.111 | $119.47 |
| 2025-08-12 | 23.85% | +2.74 | 1.114 | $118.01 |
| 2025-08-11 | 26.07% | +2.12 | 1.046 | $116.84 |
| 2025-08-08 | 24.61% | +3.37 | 1.104 | $116.28 |
| 2025-08-07 | 29.72% | +1.92 | 0.955 | $115.97 |
| 2025-08-06 | 28.89% | +2.64 | 0.962 | $116.59 |
| 2025-08-05 | 29.47% | +2.34 | 0.969 | $117.78 |
| 2025-08-04 | 28.22% | +2.54 | 0.993 | $117.01 |
| 2025-08-01 | 31.27% | +3.38 | 0.933 | $116.60 |
| 2025-07-31 | 28.13% | +4.46 | 0.969 | $120.02 |
| 2025-07-30 | 25.47% | +4.77 | 1.055 | $121.24 |
| 2025-07-29 | 28.01% | +2.19 | 0.965 | $123.15 |
| 2025-07-28 | 27.37% | +2.54 | 0.969 | $121.65 |
| 2025-07-25 | 27.20% | +2.32 | 0.980 | $118.39 |
| 2025-07-24 | 25.88% | +2.65 | 1.023 | $119.05 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 341 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 341 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Δ 看涨 | — | 34.93% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | — | 34.65% | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 41.11% | 34.64% | 31.64% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 40.85% | 34.81% | 31.51% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 40.58% | 35.13% | 31.87% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 40.32% | 35.58% | 32.32% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 40.04% | 35.86% | 32.78% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 39.72% | 36.06% | 33.05% |
| ATM | 39.22% | 36.00% | 33.24% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 38.71% | 35.66% | 33.37% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 38.37% | 35.47% | 33.23% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 38.37% | 35.26% | 33.28% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 38.69% | 35.45% | 33.57% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 40.51% | 35.07% | 32.77% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 39.62% | 35.53% | 32.56% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 39.74% | 35.44% | 31.94% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | — | 36.85% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $151.50 | 39.22% | 40.51% | 40.85% | -0.33 | +1.46 | 8 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $151.57 | 36.00% | 35.07% | 34.81% | +0.26 | -1.06 | 16 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $151.90 | 33.24% | 32.77% | 31.51% | +1.26 | -1.09 | 14 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $151.95 | 33.62% | 32.89% | 32.30% | +0.59 | -1.03 | 17 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $152.26 | 31.64% | 32.71% | 31.46% | +1.25 | +0.45 | 9 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $152.27 | 31.41% | 32.59% | 30.69% | +1.90 | +0.23 | 14 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $152.72 | 32.28% | 32.84% | 31.69% | +1.15 | -0.02 | 14 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $153.01 | 32.42% | 33.75% | 31.24% | +2.51 | +0.08 | 16 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $153.56 | 32.84% | 34.02% | 31.51% | +2.50 | -0.08 | 17 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $154.22 | 32.30% | 34.26% | 31.13% | +3.12 | +0.40 | 20 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
10 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $151.50 | 39.22% | $151.60 | 8 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $151.57 | 36.00% | $151.84 | 16 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $151.90 | 33.24% | $152.29 | 14 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $151.95 | 33.62% | $152.51 | 17 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $152.26 | 31.64% | $153.05 | 9 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $152.27 | 31.41% | $153.63 | 14 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $152.72 | 32.28% | $155.55 | 14 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $153.01 | 32.42% | $156.51 | 16 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $153.56 | 32.84% | $158.61 | 17 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $154.22 | 32.30% | $161.23 | 20 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 32.56%
- 60 天
- 31.44%
- 90 天
- 31.89%
- 180 天
- 32.61%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 341 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 10 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 10 次中 3 次
- 30% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 3.9%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 21.9%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | 收盘后 | 4.4% | +1.5% | 0.35× |
| 2026-11-03 | 未说明时间 | 5.5% | -5.2% | 0.95× |
| 2026-10-08 | 收盘后 | 2.5% | -0.2% | 0.09× |
| 2026-08-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-09 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-24 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-12 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-08 | 收盘后 | 2.3% | +37.7% | 16.28× |
| 2025-08-07 | 收盘后 | 4.6% | +31.2% | 6.82× |
| 2025-07-09 | 收盘后 | 2.0% | +24.9% | 12.44× |
| 2025-05-01 | 收盘后 | 5.8% | +36.3% | 6.22× |
| 2025-04-10 | 收盘后 | 5.0% | +45.5% | 9.04× |
| 2025-02-27 | 收盘后 | 3.9% | +16.5% | 4.22× |
| 2024-11-07 | 收盘后 | 3.1% | +20.3% | 6.49× |
| 2024-08-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-02 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-22 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-02 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。