股票 · 期权分析
FI 期权分析
数据截至 2025年10月22日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $125.25
- 30D ATM IV
- 46.11%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 92
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +3.24
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.832
▼ -0.96 pts 较前一交易日
概览
FI 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 46.1%,相当于未来一个月约 ±13.2% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 209 个交易日中 92% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 3.24 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 17%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 46.11%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +3.24
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +2.65
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.832
对应 30 天内约 ±13.2% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.9%。
高于过去一年中 92% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 3.24 个点。
高于过去一年中 67% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 2.65 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 17%。
高于过去一年中 13% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 209 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 92%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 80%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 93%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 80%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $125.25
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $125.80
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 42.51%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 38.35%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 38.65%
- 使用的到期日数
- 5
- 总未平仓量
- 128,955
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.57
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 283 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-22 | 46.11% | +3.24 | 0.832 | $125.25 |
| 2025-10-21 | 47.07% | +5.46 | 0.866 | $126.07 |
| 2025-10-20 | 52.27% | +0.94 | 0.751 | $124.14 |
| 2025-10-17 | 51.22% | +3.12 | 0.852 | $121.65 |
| 2025-10-16 | 52.18% | +3.04 | 0.847 | $118.00 |
| 2025-10-15 | 53.39% | -2.81 | 0.801 | $121.11 |
| 2025-10-14 | 52.42% | +2.37 | 0.797 | $124.12 |
| 2025-10-10 | 51.81% | +1.17 | 0.831 | $122.63 |
| 2025-10-09 | 52.00% | +0.71 | 0.813 | $125.96 |
| 2025-10-08 | 50.67% | +0.84 | 0.797 | $126.51 |
| 2025-10-07 | 49.48% | +0.66 | 0.814 | $126.69 |
| 2025-10-06 | 45.51% | +6.28 | 0.870 | $125.05 |
| 2025-10-03 | 49.15% | +0.88 | 0.809 | $127.56 |
| 2025-10-02 | 49.01% | +2.08 | 0.808 | $125.76 |
| 2025-10-01 | 48.99% | +1.79 | 0.809 | $126.09 |
| 2025-09-30 | 47.93% | +4.30 | 0.801 | $128.93 |
| 2025-09-29 | 38.90% | +0.44 | 0.989 | $130.45 |
| 2025-09-26 | 45.01% | +0.44 | 0.852 | $129.56 |
| 2025-09-25 | 45.24% | +3.18 | 0.869 | $128.66 |
| 2025-09-24 | 45.50% | +1.60 | 0.861 | $130.59 |
| 2025-09-23 | 36.28% | +1.31 | 1.096 | $129.82 |
| 2025-09-22 | 41.38% | +2.29 | 0.927 | $130.48 |
| 2025-09-19 | 36.04% | +1.18 | 1.039 | $131.80 |
| 2025-09-18 | 33.99% | +1.79 | 1.138 | $132.87 |
| 2025-09-17 | 30.54% | +1.91 | 1.248 | $134.18 |
| 2025-09-16 | 31.18% | +1.94 | 1.233 | $132.75 |
| 2025-09-15 | 30.98% | +1.77 | 1.237 | $132.65 |
| 2025-09-12 | 29.79% | +1.73 | 1.270 | $134.32 |
| 2025-09-11 | 30.22% | +1.54 | 1.222 | $135.70 |
| 2025-09-10 | 30.04% | +1.94 | 1.255 | $132.14 |
| 2025-09-09 | 27.39% | +4.71 | 1.294 | $136.41 |
| 2025-09-08 | 30.77% | -0.27 | 1.192 | $135.21 |
| 2025-09-05 | 28.79% | +2.24 | 1.294 | $135.05 |
| 2025-09-04 | 28.83% | +1.45 | 1.274 | $136.18 |
| 2025-09-03 | 29.47% | +3.82 | 1.245 | $136.77 |
| 2025-09-02 | 28.32% | +3.49 | 1.267 | $136.78 |
| 2025-08-29 | 26.48% | +0.58 | 1.310 | $138.18 |
| 2025-08-28 | 27.08% | +0.68 | 1.312 | $137.65 |
| 2025-08-27 | 27.92% | +2.80 | 1.273 | $137.98 |
| 2025-08-26 | 26.04% | +1.46 | 1.364 | $137.88 |
| 2025-08-25 | 28.11% | +4.15 | 1.298 | $137.26 |
| 2025-08-22 | 23.86% | +4.99 | 1.434 | $139.68 |
| 2025-08-21 | 27.52% | +2.05 | 1.319 | $140.00 |
| 2025-08-20 | 27.09% | +2.36 | 1.276 | $139.96 |
| 2025-08-19 | 27.74% | +1.84 | 1.251 | $139.11 |
| 2025-08-18 | 26.18% | +0.90 | 1.314 | $137.06 |
| 2025-08-15 | 26.66% | +1.14 | 1.261 | $136.70 |
| 2025-08-14 | 28.09% | +1.54 | 1.204 | $134.62 |
| 2025-08-13 | 27.87% | +1.58 | 1.201 | $134.29 |
| 2025-08-12 | 27.36% | +2.18 | 1.212 | $132.32 |
| 2025-08-11 | 28.36% | +1.36 | 1.134 | $132.22 |
| 2025-08-08 | 26.74% | +1.53 | 1.131 | $133.24 |
| 2025-08-07 | 27.47% | +2.17 | 1.124 | $132.70 |
| 2025-08-06 | 26.99% | +1.57 | 1.151 | $134.04 |
| 2025-08-05 | 27.11% | -0.30 | 1.127 | $134.28 |
| 2025-08-04 | 27.39% | +1.81 | 1.116 | $136.15 |
| 2025-08-01 | 27.32% | +1.49 | 1.106 | $135.33 |
| 2025-07-31 | 27.27% | +1.69 | 1.059 | $138.94 |
| 2025-07-30 | 26.47% | +0.82 | 1.059 | $140.85 |
| 2025-07-29 | 26.75% | +0.67 | 1.016 | $142.50 |
| 2025-07-28 | 26.91% | +0.60 | 1.028 | $139.94 |
| 2025-07-25 | 25.99% | +0.17 | 1.043 | $142.03 |
| 2025-07-24 | 27.81% | +1.88 | 0.975 | $140.08 |
| 2025-07-23 | — | — | — | $143.00 |
| 2025-07-22 | 39.57% | +1.90 | 0.830 | $165.98 |
| 2025-07-21 | 38.19% | -0.07 | 0.825 | $165.46 |
| 2025-07-18 | 37.61% | +2.11 | 0.808 | $165.74 |
| 2025-07-17 | 37.53% | +1.65 | 0.817 | $167.35 |
| 2025-07-16 | 38.33% | +2.97 | 0.830 | $165.71 |
| 2025-07-15 | 39.75% | +2.50 | 0.809 | $164.42 |
| 2025-07-14 | 39.66% | +2.59 | 0.830 | $167.00 |
| 2025-07-11 | 40.68% | +1.90 | 0.793 | $165.52 |
| 2025-07-10 | 38.72% | +0.65 | 0.798 | $169.70 |
| 2025-07-09 | 38.04% | +1.76 | 0.827 | $170.95 |
| 2025-07-08 | 39.92% | +1.46 | 0.822 | $170.42 |
| 2025-07-07 | 39.12% | +1.45 | 0.818 | $173.31 |
| 2025-07-03 | 37.90% | +1.16 | 0.804 | $175.55 |
| 2025-07-02 | 38.87% | +1.30 | 0.811 | $172.45 |
| 2025-07-01 | 37.23% | +0.86 | 0.839 | $172.68 |
| 2025-06-30 | 35.81% | +2.46 | 0.851 | $172.41 |
| 2025-06-27 | 34.86% | +0.28 | 0.888 | $172.33 |
| 2025-06-26 | 33.75% | +1.07 | 0.908 | $171.36 |
| 2025-06-25 | 32.74% | +0.13 | 0.962 | $170.36 |
| 2025-06-24 | 29.12% | +1.70 | 1.099 | $172.66 |
| 2025-06-23 | 28.95% | +2.19 | 1.105 | $170.54 |
| 2025-06-20 | — | — | — | $163.38 |
| 2025-06-18 | 25.49% | +3.22 | 1.252 | $161.36 |
| 2025-06-17 | — | — | — | $163.44 |
| 2025-06-16 | 26.28% | +3.32 | 1.188 | $164.89 |
| 2025-06-13 | 31.15% | +3.82 | 1.017 | $163.02 |
| 2025-06-12 | 23.19% | +2.94 | 1.315 | $168.02 |
| 2025-06-11 | 23.20% | +2.85 | 1.331 | $168.07 |
| 2025-06-10 | — | — | — | $168.81 |
| 2025-06-09 | 23.64% | +2.94 | 1.299 | $166.94 |
| 2025-06-06 | 22.53% | +1.76 | 1.342 | $166.71 |
| 2025-06-05 | 25.43% | +2.70 | 1.267 | $165.38 |
| 2025-06-04 | 25.46% | +3.28 | 1.284 | $164.16 |
| 2025-06-03 | 25.75% | +3.34 | 1.277 | $162.11 |
| 2025-06-02 | 29.13% | +5.41 | 1.144 | $162.00 |
| 2025-05-30 | 25.69% | +2.88 | 1.296 | $162.79 |
| 2025-05-29 | 27.79% | +4.19 | 1.217 | $159.62 |
| 2025-05-28 | 27.10% | +3.89 | 1.243 | $160.74 |
| 2025-05-27 | 27.98% | +2.70 | 1.183 | $160.14 |
| 2025-05-23 | 28.53% | +3.92 | 1.210 | $159.34 |
| 2025-05-22 | 27.52% | +3.40 | 1.226 | $161.34 |
| 2025-05-21 | 28.19% | +4.12 | 1.184 | $162.22 |
| 2025-05-20 | 27.39% | +3.22 | 1.206 | $165.87 |
| 2025-05-19 | 27.85% | +3.92 | 1.170 | $169.14 |
| 2025-05-16 | 28.30% | +4.11 | 1.143 | $166.66 |
| 2025-05-15 | — | — | — | $159.13 |
| 2025-05-14 | 24.90% | +2.83 | 1.082 | $189.86 |
| 2025-05-13 | 24.39% | +2.61 | 1.149 | $191.00 |
| 2025-05-12 | 23.40% | +3.61 | 1.098 | $186.82 |
| 2025-05-09 | 25.78% | +3.90 | 1.057 | $184.07 |
| 2025-05-08 | 26.20% | +4.07 | 1.052 | $181.39 |
| 2025-05-07 | 27.70% | +3.53 | 1.003 | $182.19 |
| 2025-05-06 | 26.83% | +2.95 | 1.036 | $184.95 |
| 2025-05-05 | 26.26% | +4.98 | 1.063 | $185.50 |
| 2025-05-02 | 25.60% | +2.20 | 1.053 | $184.37 |
| 2025-05-01 | — | — | — | $183.02 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 283 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 283 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
23d (2025-11-14) · 30d (2025-11-21) · 58d (2025-12-19)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 23d | 30d | 58d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | — | — | 47.03% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | — | — | 45.24% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | — | 48.97% | 43.18% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | — | 47.69% | 42.60% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 49.82% | 47.13% | 42.55% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 49.23% | 47.40% | 42.59% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 49.27% | 47.64% | 42.53% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 50.63% | 45.83% | 42.62% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 51.82% | 45.23% | 43.00% |
| ATM | 52.15% | 46.11% | 42.96% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 53.15% | 48.59% | 42.87% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 52.38% | 52.32% | 43.01% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 51.79% | 49.17% | 43.31% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 51.91% | 50.13% | 43.67% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 51.68% | 50.38% | 44.24% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | — | 51.17% | 45.27% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | 23 | $125.60 | 52.15% | 51.68% | 49.82% | +1.86 | -1.41 | 17 |
| 2025-11-21 | 30 | $125.80 | 46.11% | 50.38% | 47.13% | +3.24 | +2.65 | 23 |
| 2025-12-19 | 58 | $126.01 | 42.96% | 44.24% | 42.55% | +1.69 | +0.44 | 11 |
| 2026-01-16 | 86 | $126.82 | 38.33% | 39.99% | 37.12% | +2.88 | +0.23 | 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | 331 | $130.10 | 38.79% | 42.59% | 37.63% | +4.97 | +1.32 | 15 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
5 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | 23 天 | $125.60 | 52.15% | $126.68 | 17 |
| 2025-11-21 | 30 天 | $125.80 | 46.11% | $126.90 | 23 |
| 2025-12-19 | 58 天 | $126.01 | 42.96% | $127.87 | 11 |
| 2026-01-16 | 86 天 | $126.82 | 38.33% | $129.03 | 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | 331 天 | $130.10 | 38.79% | $139.29 | 15 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 46.11%
- 60 天
- 42.51%
- 90 天
- 38.35%
- 180 天
- 38.65%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 283 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。