股票 · 期权分析
FTAI 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $188.00
- 30D ATM IV
- 61.85%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- —
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +9.36
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.008
▼ -2.07 pts 较前一交易日
本交易日部分指标不可用
概览
FTAI 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 61.9%,相当于未来一个月约 ±17.7% 的波动。它在本站的历史只有 303 个交易日,不到计算百分位所需的 180 个,所以这个读数还没有和它自己的过去作比较。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 9.36 个波动率点。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-29(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 7 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±12.0% 的波动,FTAI 实际平均波动 32.2%,7 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 61.85%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +9.36
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +5.60
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.008
对应 30 天内约 ±17.7% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.9%。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 9.36 个点。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 5.60 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 177 个交易日(一年窗口)
这个窗口内的历史不足,无法定位当前读数。
- IV 百分位,1 年
- —
- IV 排名,1 年
- —
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 50%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 32%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $188.00
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $189.29
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 63.78%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 62.32%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- —
- 使用的到期日数
- 8
- 总未平仓量
- 43,762
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.49
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 303 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 61.85% | +9.36 | 1.008 | $188.00 |
| 2026-11-09 | 63.92% | +5.26 | 0.994 | $198.83 |
| 2026-11-06 | 68.87% | +5.20 | 0.941 | $180.27 |
| 2026-11-05 | 83.10% | +3.96 | — | $162.45 |
| 2026-11-04 | 66.19% | +4.36 | 0.854 | $179.58 |
| 2026-11-03 | 60.94% | +3.74 | 0.981 | $200.74 |
| 2026-11-02 | 63.12% | +2.61 | 0.934 | $197.75 |
| 2026-10-30 | 62.91% | +3.70 | — | $187.27 |
| 2026-10-29 | 61.84% | +5.08 | 0.972 | $196.01 |
| 2026-10-28 | 75.12% | -2.65 | — | $167.14 |
| 2026-10-27 | 76.50% | -2.16 | 0.851 | $158.67 |
| 2026-10-26 | 74.08% | +2.86 | 0.865 | $157.59 |
| 2026-10-23 | 72.91% | +3.47 | 0.878 | $154.37 |
| 2026-10-22 | 75.67% | +0.06 | 0.864 | $157.50 |
| 2026-10-21 | 73.58% | +1.06 | 0.856 | $163.52 |
| 2026-10-20 | 75.37% | +1.89 | 0.846 | $157.95 |
| 2026-10-19 | 72.36% | +1.26 | 0.902 | $163.34 |
| 2026-10-16 | 75.28% | +2.29 | 0.832 | $164.46 |
| 2026-10-15 | 76.46% | +4.73 | 0.804 | $168.56 |
| 2026-10-14 | 76.22% | -3.29 | 0.851 | $163.25 |
| 2026-10-13 | 75.87% | -2.58 | 0.889 | $166.87 |
| 2026-10-09 | 71.67% | -1.70 | 0.866 | $169.97 |
| 2026-10-08 | 65.24% | -2.54 | 0.940 | $171.06 |
| 2026-10-07 | 73.49% | +1.57 | 0.857 | $174.83 |
| 2026-10-06 | 72.50% | +1.79 | 0.889 | $179.44 |
| 2026-10-05 | 72.11% | -0.12 | 0.867 | $164.70 |
| 2026-10-02 | 67.80% | -2.12 | 0.938 | $167.03 |
| 2026-10-01 | — | — | — | $167.32 |
| 2026-09-30 | 71.86% | -0.43 | 0.849 | $167.03 |
| 2026-09-29 | 70.52% | +0.25 | 0.896 | $168.93 |
| 2026-09-28 | 69.75% | +1.39 | 0.913 | $167.10 |
| 2026-09-25 | 60.40% | -0.84 | 1.002 | $175.06 |
| 2026-09-24 | 60.44% | +0.00 | 1.070 | $174.53 |
| 2026-09-23 | 58.47% | +0.19 | 1.122 | $186.01 |
| 2026-09-22 | 62.10% | +1.11 | 1.049 | $189.74 |
| 2026-09-21 | 61.17% | +2.54 | 1.063 | $192.74 |
| 2026-09-18 | 58.63% | -0.04 | 1.125 | $190.74 |
| 2026-09-17 | 57.88% | +3.69 | 1.161 | $195.07 |
| 2025-10-22 | — | — | — | $172.16 |
| 2025-10-21 | — | — | — | $172.67 |
| 2025-10-20 | — | — | — | $176.91 |
| 2025-10-17 | — | — | — | $166.67 |
| 2025-10-16 | — | — | — | $169.67 |
| 2025-10-15 | — | — | — | $174.16 |
| 2025-10-14 | — | — | — | $170.56 |
| 2025-10-10 | — | — | — | $163.11 |
| 2025-10-09 | — | — | — | $169.38 |
| 2025-10-08 | — | — | — | $170.41 |
| 2025-10-07 | — | — | — | $170.87 |
| 2025-10-06 | 56.53% | +2.51 | 0.905 | $171.46 |
| 2025-10-03 | — | — | — | $169.68 |
| 2025-10-02 | — | — | — | $172.16 |
| 2025-10-01 | — | — | — | $173.11 |
| 2025-09-30 | 50.95% | +2.21 | 0.980 | $166.86 |
| 2025-09-29 | — | — | — | $163.27 |
| 2025-09-26 | 48.80% | +3.12 | 1.033 | $164.87 |
| 2025-09-25 | — | — | — | $170.28 |
| 2025-09-24 | 43.66% | +1.83 | 1.103 | $178.17 |
| 2025-09-23 | — | — | — | $181.47 |
| 2025-09-22 | 42.44% | +3.78 | 1.098 | $181.89 |
| 2025-09-19 | 43.90% | +1.43 | 1.115 | $178.89 |
| 2025-09-18 | 42.82% | +0.85 | 1.140 | $178.17 |
| 2025-09-17 | 45.69% | +0.72 | 1.105 | $174.04 |
| 2025-09-16 | — | — | — | $173.75 |
| 2025-09-15 | 46.69% | +1.13 | 1.078 | $172.51 |
| 2025-09-12 | — | — | — | $171.66 |
| 2025-09-11 | — | — | — | $169.85 |
| 2025-09-10 | — | — | — | $168.12 |
| 2025-09-09 | — | — | — | $165.39 |
| 2025-09-08 | 45.85% | +2.20 | 1.113 | $166.42 |
| 2025-09-05 | — | — | — | $154.00 |
| 2025-09-04 | 44.21% | +3.48 | 1.073 | $155.55 |
| 2025-09-03 | 43.49% | +2.18 | 1.100 | $150.89 |
| 2025-09-02 | 44.31% | +3.40 | 1.090 | $150.09 |
| 2025-08-29 | 42.16% | +3.04 | 1.156 | $153.85 |
| 2025-08-28 | 42.94% | +5.36 | 1.141 | $155.39 |
| 2025-08-27 | 43.00% | +2.88 | 1.120 | $149.91 |
| 2025-08-26 | 43.27% | +1.81 | 1.090 | $149.19 |
| 2025-08-25 | 44.29% | +2.59 | 1.100 | $148.81 |
| 2025-08-22 | — | — | — | $147.71 |
| 2025-08-21 | 46.47% | +6.06 | 1.094 | $146.09 |
| 2025-08-20 | 47.03% | +1.07 | 1.053 | $140.40 |
| 2025-08-19 | — | — | — | $141.01 |
| 2025-08-18 | — | — | — | $142.46 |
| 2025-08-15 | — | — | — | $144.72 |
| 2025-08-14 | — | — | — | $144.90 |
| 2025-08-13 | — | — | — | $146.00 |
| 2025-08-12 | — | — | — | $142.56 |
| 2025-08-11 | — | — | — | $138.02 |
| 2025-08-08 | — | — | — | $136.06 |
| 2025-08-07 | — | — | — | $138.07 |
| 2025-08-06 | — | — | — | $137.63 |
| 2025-08-05 | 47.56% | +0.37 | 1.076 | $138.98 |
| 2025-08-04 | — | — | — | $141.47 |
| 2025-08-01 | 50.90% | +0.92 | 1.017 | $137.32 |
| 2025-07-31 | 48.43% | -1.41 | 0.997 | $137.61 |
| 2025-07-30 | 52.21% | +4.09 | 0.988 | $144.46 |
| 2025-07-29 | 70.54% | -1.88 | 0.843 | $114.14 |
| 2025-07-28 | 69.36% | +1.81 | 0.869 | $114.38 |
| 2025-07-25 | 69.60% | +4.79 | 0.892 | $117.18 |
| 2025-07-24 | 71.45% | -0.49 | 0.853 | $109.92 |
| 2025-07-23 | 75.84% | +1.87 | 0.818 | $112.20 |
| 2025-07-22 | — | — | — | $110.92 |
| 2025-07-21 | 65.32% | +3.57 | 0.899 | $113.88 |
| 2025-07-18 | 70.25% | +2.42 | 0.861 | $113.59 |
| 2025-07-17 | 68.71% | +2.26 | 0.859 | $115.65 |
| 2025-07-16 | 68.07% | +4.98 | 0.887 | $115.15 |
| 2025-07-15 | 68.28% | +4.94 | 0.879 | $113.79 |
| 2025-07-14 | 68.36% | +3.47 | 0.865 | $114.66 |
| 2025-07-11 | — | — | — | $110.98 |
| 2025-07-10 | 69.10% | +3.60 | 0.866 | $112.68 |
| 2025-07-09 | — | — | — | $110.41 |
| 2025-07-08 | 68.37% | +2.13 | 0.894 | $109.76 |
| 2025-07-07 | 63.40% | +4.16 | 0.955 | $111.49 |
| 2025-07-03 | 61.61% | +5.10 | 0.971 | $114.95 |
| 2025-07-02 | 59.87% | +2.00 | 1.005 | $113.14 |
| 2025-07-01 | 73.05% | +2.08 | 0.873 | $113.86 |
| 2025-06-30 | 68.84% | +2.31 | 0.882 | $115.04 |
| 2025-06-27 | — | — | — | $118.60 |
| 2025-06-26 | 60.33% | +7.60 | 0.963 | $122.01 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 303 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 303 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20Δ 看涨 | — | 69.02% | 63.36% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 82.30% | 68.57% | 63.54% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 82.65% | 68.64% | 65.63% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 82.76% | 70.61% | 64.19% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 82.74% | 69.31% | 63.30% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 82.66% | 71.59% | 63.59% |
| ATM | 82.86% | 71.93% | 64.69% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 83.56% | 71.95% | 66.60% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 84.68% | 72.02% | 67.75% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 85.55% | 72.83% | 68.08% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 86.33% | 73.61% | 66.80% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 88.77% | 74.29% | 70.41% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 89.09% | 74.68% | 68.10% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $187.55 | 82.86% | 88.77% | 82.30% | +6.47 | +2.67 | 11 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $187.80 | 71.93% | 74.29% | 68.57% | +5.71 | -0.50 | 13 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $187.70 | 64.69% | 70.41% | 63.54% | +6.87 | +2.29 | 12 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $189.42 | 61.73% | 72.20% | 62.74% | +9.46 | +5.74 | 12 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $188.85 | 64.46% | 68.76% | 63.33% | +5.44 | +1.59 | 14 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $188.74 | 63.68% | 64.77% | 62.98% | +1.79 | +0.20 | 17 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $190.40 | 61.91% | 63.79% | 61.74% | +2.05 | +0.86 | 21 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $188.22 | 67.57% | 65.42% | 63.89% | +1.54 | -2.92 | 24 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
8 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $187.55 | 82.86% | $188.08 | 11 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $187.80 | 71.93% | $189.14 | 13 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $187.70 | 64.69% | $189.53 | 12 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $189.42 | 61.73% | $192.51 | 12 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $188.85 | 64.46% | $192.97 | 14 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $188.74 | 63.68% | $195.79 | 17 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $190.40 | 61.91% | $200.77 | 21 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $188.22 | 67.57% | $204.04 | 24 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 61.85%
- 60 天
- 63.78%
- 90 天
- 62.32%
- 180 天
- —
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 303 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 7 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 7 次中 1 次
- 14% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 12.0%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 32.2%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 开盘前 | 13.2% | +17.3% | 1.31× |
| 2026-10-28 | 未说明时间 | 13.2% | +17.3% | 1.31× |
| 2026-10-26 | 未说明时间 | 13.4% | +0.7% | 0.05× |
| 2026-07-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-30 | 收盘后 | 4.8% | +35.0% | 7.34× |
| 2025-04-30 | 收盘后 | 11.2% | +82.1% | 7.33× |
| 2025-02-26 | 收盘后 | 13.3% | +39.0% | 2.94× |
| 2024-10-30 | 收盘后 | 14.6% | +34.3% | 2.35× |
| 2024-07-24 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-22 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。