股票 · 期权分析
GEV 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $797.04
- 30D ATM IV
- 57.29%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 82
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +8.46
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.923
▲ +2.90 pts 较前一交易日
概览
GEV 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 57.3%,相当于未来一个月约 ±16.4% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 82% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 8.46 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 6% 的交易日差距比这更大。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 8%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-27(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±7.9% 的波动,GEV 实际平均波动 3.5%,6 次中有 5 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 57.29%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +8.46
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- -0.72
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.923
对应 30 天内约 ±16.4% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.6%。
高于过去一年中 82% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 8.46 个点。
高于过去一年中 94% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值低 0.72 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 8%。
高于过去一年中 21% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 82%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 31%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 86%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 31%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $797.04
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $789.52
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 52.66%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 52.90%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 52.40%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 179,900
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.49
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 339 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 57.29% | +8.46 | 0.923 | $797.04 |
| 2026-11-09 | 54.39% | +8.02 | 0.953 | $829.34 |
| 2026-11-06 | 59.27% | +9.01 | 0.927 | $774.11 |
| 2026-11-05 | 64.25% | +7.46 | 0.857 | $770.51 |
| 2026-11-04 | 54.47% | +2.99 | 0.938 | $832.83 |
| 2026-11-03 | 53.92% | +2.14 | 0.933 | $918.20 |
| 2026-11-02 | 53.84% | +2.08 | 0.940 | $862.25 |
| 2026-10-30 | 53.12% | +2.86 | 0.949 | $857.87 |
| 2026-10-29 | 49.25% | +2.01 | 0.971 | $887.85 |
| 2026-10-28 | 50.54% | -0.15 | 0.934 | $878.03 |
| 2026-10-27 | 52.45% | +2.92 | 0.921 | $895.08 |
| 2026-10-26 | 53.65% | +3.77 | 0.912 | $855.12 |
| 2026-10-23 | 55.64% | +1.76 | 0.896 | $815.00 |
| 2026-10-22 | 57.54% | +2.13 | 0.897 | $827.42 |
| 2026-10-21 | 52.25% | +1.86 | 0.915 | $925.92 |
| 2026-10-20 | 52.58% | +1.91 | 0.913 | $890.33 |
| 2026-10-19 | 53.40% | +2.60 | 0.887 | $908.44 |
| 2026-10-16 | 54.45% | +1.51 | 0.886 | $921.20 |
| 2026-10-15 | 52.29% | +3.76 | 0.907 | $926.44 |
| 2026-10-14 | 54.17% | +3.28 | 0.873 | $941.78 |
| 2026-10-13 | 52.57% | +1.83 | 0.886 | $1,004.04 |
| 2026-10-09 | 49.67% | +1.12 | 0.924 | $1,004.73 |
| 2026-10-08 | 52.49% | +1.68 | 0.896 | $999.35 |
| 2026-10-07 | 50.56% | +0.48 | 0.920 | $997.09 |
| 2026-10-06 | 50.97% | +1.71 | 0.919 | $1,029.21 |
| 2026-10-05 | 50.18% | +0.12 | 0.925 | $990.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | 51.64% | +2.27 | 0.933 | $988.70 |
| 2026-10-01 | 52.33% | -0.18 | 0.934 | $987.45 |
| 2026-09-30 | 49.66% | +0.04 | 0.956 | $950.49 |
| 2026-09-29 | 49.56% | +1.35 | 0.977 | $962.49 |
| 2026-09-28 | 48.29% | -1.25 | 0.983 | $949.77 |
| 2026-09-25 | 45.76% | +0.97 | 1.048 | $957.63 |
| 2026-09-24 | 46.69% | +1.06 | 1.028 | $955.04 |
| 2026-09-23 | 46.54% | +1.59 | 1.047 | $951.82 |
| 2026-09-22 | 45.97% | +1.43 | 1.061 | $950.28 |
| 2026-09-21 | 47.13% | -0.61 | 1.026 | $946.22 |
| 2026-09-18 | 44.97% | +1.53 | 1.065 | $940.33 |
| 2026-09-17 | 45.97% | +0.77 | 1.060 | $924.93 |
| 2026-09-16 | 47.76% | +0.65 | 1.010 | $925.09 |
| 2026-09-15 | 45.03% | +0.28 | 1.076 | $882.81 |
| 2026-09-14 | 44.73% | +1.28 | 1.091 | $874.76 |
| 2026-09-11 | 44.00% | -0.04 | 1.100 | $957.27 |
| 2026-09-10 | 44.90% | -0.07 | 1.091 | $923.91 |
| 2026-09-09 | 46.38% | -1.76 | 1.064 | $951.04 |
| 2026-09-08 | 47.05% | +0.81 | 1.055 | $971.31 |
| 2026-09-04 | 43.37% | -0.87 | 1.112 | $941.95 |
| 2026-09-03 | 43.21% | +0.31 | 1.126 | $941.84 |
| 2026-09-02 | 43.07% | +0.15 | 1.110 | $921.94 |
| 2026-09-01 | 43.92% | +1.35 | 1.102 | $898.53 |
| 2026-08-31 | 42.92% | +1.98 | 1.101 | $898.53 |
| 2026-08-28 | 41.93% | -0.70 | 1.129 | $911.93 |
| 2026-08-27 | 44.02% | -0.22 | 1.107 | $953.83 |
| 2026-08-26 | 46.52% | -1.18 | 1.071 | $953.09 |
| 2026-08-25 | 45.99% | -1.67 | 1.082 | $926.73 |
| 2026-08-24 | 45.45% | -1.00 | 1.087 | $942.10 |
| 2026-08-21 | 46.89% | -0.79 | 1.072 | $956.85 |
| 2025-10-22 | 51.63% | +4.36 | 0.954 | $576.00 |
| 2025-10-21 | 57.04% | +3.20 | 0.925 | $585.33 |
| 2025-10-20 | 58.91% | +6.30 | 0.905 | $594.07 |
| 2025-10-17 | 60.48% | +4.99 | 0.905 | $600.00 |
| 2025-10-16 | 61.52% | +2.69 | 0.889 | $602.00 |
| 2025-10-15 | 61.19% | +3.89 | 0.878 | $615.95 |
| 2025-10-14 | 60.25% | +6.40 | 0.900 | $644.41 |
| 2025-10-10 | 60.01% | +4.65 | 0.910 | $604.56 |
| 2025-10-09 | 54.99% | +4.15 | 0.927 | $634.27 |
| 2025-10-08 | 53.67% | +2.34 | 0.969 | $625.45 |
| 2025-10-07 | 54.80% | +2.43 | 0.935 | $606.12 |
| 2025-10-06 | 54.04% | +3.83 | 0.950 | $603.22 |
| 2025-10-03 | 52.17% | +2.93 | 0.982 | $594.99 |
| 2025-10-02 | 53.69% | +2.61 | 0.953 | $606.23 |
| 2025-10-01 | 52.43% | +3.84 | 0.970 | $606.15 |
| 2025-09-30 | 51.57% | +4.76 | 1.000 | $614.90 |
| 2025-09-29 | 52.29% | +4.20 | 0.995 | $602.43 |
| 2025-09-26 | 51.97% | +4.66 | 0.988 | $605.17 |
| 2025-09-25 | 54.80% | +3.41 | 0.957 | $607.52 |
| 2025-09-24 | 51.05% | +4.57 | 0.998 | $628.97 |
| 2025-09-23 | 50.28% | +3.30 | 1.012 | $633.41 |
| 2025-09-22 | 49.25% | +3.59 | 1.020 | $644.37 |
| 2025-09-19 | 46.30% | +3.61 | 1.058 | $624.17 |
| 2025-09-18 | 45.86% | +0.40 | 1.046 | $611.00 |
| 2025-09-17 | 45.23% | +1.93 | 1.072 | $614.79 |
| 2025-09-16 | 46.12% | +1.84 | 1.070 | $617.91 |
| 2025-09-15 | 45.03% | +2.20 | 1.082 | $628.68 |
| 2025-09-12 | 45.52% | +2.61 | 1.063 | $625.55 |
| 2025-09-11 | 45.88% | +0.87 | 1.051 | $634.15 |
| 2025-09-10 | 44.30% | +4.12 | 1.078 | $643.56 |
| 2025-09-09 | 44.38% | +4.13 | 1.083 | $605.70 |
| 2025-09-08 | 44.76% | +4.79 | 1.083 | $600.23 |
| 2025-09-05 | 46.04% | +3.53 | 1.070 | $582.08 |
| 2025-09-04 | 44.41% | +3.06 | 1.081 | $598.81 |
| 2025-09-03 | 46.18% | +6.38 | 1.049 | $577.04 |
| 2025-09-02 | 49.14% | +2.28 | 1.026 | $579.68 |
| 2025-08-29 | 41.02% | +2.46 | 1.147 | $612.97 |
| 2025-08-28 | 40.75% | +5.05 | 1.128 | $633.69 |
| 2025-08-27 | 43.97% | +5.17 | 1.062 | $622.39 |
| 2025-08-26 | 43.15% | +3.28 | 1.068 | $625.91 |
| 2025-08-25 | 43.83% | +4.21 | 1.073 | $602.31 |
| 2025-08-22 | 42.13% | +5.22 | 1.099 | $607.07 |
| 2025-08-21 | 44.86% | +2.71 | 1.069 | $606.00 |
| 2025-08-20 | 43.54% | +6.42 | 1.096 | $604.59 |
| 2025-08-19 | 43.88% | +5.16 | 1.075 | $603.13 |
| 2025-08-18 | 42.24% | +4.96 | 1.076 | $625.02 |
| 2025-08-15 | 42.17% | +4.84 | 1.085 | $621.91 |
| 2025-08-14 | 43.26% | +4.47 | 1.062 | $625.27 |
| 2025-08-13 | 43.39% | +4.06 | 1.076 | $634.31 |
| 2025-08-12 | 39.76% | +4.88 | 1.125 | $657.44 |
| 2025-08-11 | 41.81% | +4.80 | 1.095 | $650.76 |
| 2025-08-08 | 40.99% | +4.84 | 1.112 | $649.09 |
| 2025-08-07 | 42.73% | +4.17 | 1.090 | $645.86 |
| 2025-08-06 | 41.96% | +4.09 | 1.094 | $664.55 |
| 2025-08-05 | 43.43% | +3.95 | 1.074 | $649.72 |
| 2025-08-04 | 42.84% | +4.08 | 1.063 | $662.77 |
| 2025-08-01 | 44.78% | +4.18 | 1.046 | $656.50 |
| 2025-07-31 | 43.32% | +3.02 | 1.036 | $660.29 |
| 2025-07-30 | 41.09% | +4.04 | 1.056 | $655.00 |
| 2025-07-29 | 41.79% | +2.84 | 1.021 | $632.67 |
| 2025-07-28 | 40.91% | +3.76 | 1.028 | $647.66 |
| 2025-07-25 | 41.97% | +2.54 | 1.019 | $644.59 |
| 2025-07-24 | 43.74% | +3.21 | 0.999 | $623.97 |
| 2025-07-23 | 44.12% | +3.40 | 1.000 | $629.03 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 339 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 339 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | — | 61.54% | 55.36% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 73.10% | 61.81% | 54.64% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 73.11% | 62.18% | 54.84% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 73.40% | 62.79% | 55.81% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 74.02% | 63.35% | 56.25% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 74.20% | 63.71% | 57.04% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 74.65% | 64.07% | 58.07% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 75.00% | 64.59% | 59.87% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 75.09% | 65.29% | 60.24% |
| ATM | 75.65% | 65.70% | 59.34% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 75.61% | 65.67% | 57.57% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 76.21% | 66.05% | 58.11% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 76.47% | 66.78% | 59.65% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 77.36% | 67.42% | 60.64% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 78.11% | 68.29% | 60.07% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 78.97% | 69.21% | 60.86% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 79.39% | 70.56% | 61.14% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 82.08% | 71.76% | 65.36% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | — | 75.11% | 68.94% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $787.90 | 75.65% | 78.11% | 74.02% | +4.09 | +0.41 | 73 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $788.45 | 65.70% | 68.29% | 63.35% | +4.94 | +0.12 | 80 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $787.09 | 59.34% | 60.07% | 56.25% | +3.82 | -1.18 | 72 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $789.35 | 58.13% | 59.25% | 54.37% | +4.88 | -1.31 | 70 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $789.55 | 57.18% | 61.00% | 52.07% | +8.92 | -0.65 | 65 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $790.20 | 54.93% | 58.10% | 53.18% | +4.92 | +0.71 | 58 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $790.65 | 53.75% | 58.36% | 51.07% | +7.29 | +0.96 | 55 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $793.58 | 52.38% | 55.80% | 49.89% | +5.91 | +0.46 | 82 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $796.05 | 53.05% | 56.03% | 50.45% | +5.58 | +0.19 | 66 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $797.72 | 53.27% | 56.15% | 50.38% | +5.77 | +0.00 | 77 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $800.20 | 52.28% | 55.41% | 49.95% | +5.47 | +0.40 | 69 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $805.75 | 52.56% | 55.63% | 50.13% | +5.50 | +0.32 | 80 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $816.52 | 52.42% | 55.63% | 49.94% | +5.69 | +0.37 | 72 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $787.90 | 75.65% | $789.76 | 73 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $788.45 | 65.70% | $793.13 | 80 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $787.09 | 59.34% | $793.58 | 72 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $789.35 | 58.13% | $798.16 | 70 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $789.55 | 57.18% | $800.59 | 65 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $790.20 | 54.93% | $802.71 | 58 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $790.65 | 53.75% | $804.54 | 55 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $793.58 | 52.38% | $813.51 | 82 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $796.05 | 53.05% | $827.66 | 66 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $797.72 | 53.27% | $838.73 | 77 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $800.20 | 52.28% | $848.64 | 69 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $805.75 | 52.56% | $875.36 | 80 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $816.52 | 52.42% | $917.93 | 72 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 57.29%
- 60 天
- 52.66%
- 90 天
- 52.90%
- 180 天
- 52.40%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 339 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 5 次
- 83% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 7.9%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 3.5%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 开盘前 | 7.7% | -1.9% | 0.25× |
| 2026-10-21 | 未说明时间 | 4.3% | -10.6% | 2.46× |
| 2026-07-22 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-22 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-28 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-22 | 开盘前 | 8.7% | -1.6% | 0.18× |
| 2025-04-23 | 开盘前 | 10.4% | +3.1% | 0.29× |
| 2025-01-22 | 开盘前 | 8.3% | +2.7% | 0.32× |
| 2024-10-23 | 开盘前 | 7.9% | +1.3% | 0.16× |
| 2024-07-24 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-25 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。