股票 · 期权分析
GILD 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $170.87
- 30D ATM IV
- 30.82%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 53
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +3.78
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.069
▼ -1.30 pts 较前一交易日
概览
GILD 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 30.8%,相当于未来一个月约 ±8.8% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 220 个交易日中 53% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 3.78 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
较长期限的期权波动率更高:90 天波动率比 30 天高 7%。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-26(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±5.5% 的波动,GILD 实际平均波动 31.0%,6 次中有 2 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 30.82%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +3.78
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.98
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.069
对应 30 天内约 ±8.8% 的波动，平常一天约 ±1.9%。
高于过去一年中 53% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 3.78 个点。
高于过去一年中 61% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.98 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 7%。
高于过去一年中 77% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 220 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 53%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 31%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 66%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 37%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $170.87
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $171.02
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 31.25%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 32.94%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 33.32%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 144,541
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.58
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 339 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 30.82% | +3.78 | 1.069 | $170.87 |
| 2026-11-09 | 32.12% | +3.63 | 1.009 | $169.32 |
| 2026-11-06 | 32.60% | +2.72 | 1.007 | $166.89 |
| 2026-11-05 | 34.64% | +1.45 | 0.929 | $167.57 |
| 2026-11-04 | 32.30% | -0.63 | 1.014 | $174.48 |
| 2026-11-03 | 32.51% | +1.82 | 0.977 | $167.47 |
| 2026-11-02 | 32.72% | +2.82 | 0.976 | $170.33 |
| 2026-10-30 | 32.87% | +1.26 | 0.960 | $170.68 |
| 2026-10-29 | 34.12% | +1.83 | 0.927 | $165.61 |
| 2026-10-28 | 35.59% | +3.25 | 0.907 | $159.20 |
| 2026-10-27 | 35.52% | +1.51 | 0.913 | $159.08 |
| 2026-10-26 | 36.42% | +3.00 | 0.907 | $158.69 |
| 2026-10-23 | 36.53% | +2.83 | 0.896 | $156.04 |
| 2026-10-22 | 38.07% | +2.83 | 0.894 | $157.19 |
| 2026-10-21 | 36.11% | +3.24 | 0.885 | $153.57 |
| 2026-10-20 | 36.60% | +2.58 | 0.874 | $156.51 |
| 2026-10-19 | 36.05% | +2.36 | 0.882 | $153.07 |
| 2026-10-16 | 35.96% | +2.85 | 0.878 | $156.19 |
| 2026-10-15 | 37.21% | +3.86 | 0.880 | $157.37 |
| 2026-10-14 | 38.49% | +1.11 | 0.833 | $153.54 |
| 2026-10-13 | 35.11% | +3.08 | 0.885 | $147.92 |
| 2026-10-09 | 32.34% | +2.62 | 0.955 | $151.17 |
| 2026-10-08 | 34.20% | +0.93 | 0.931 | $147.10 |
| 2026-10-07 | 32.53% | +1.52 | 0.944 | $146.85 |
| 2026-10-06 | 33.57% | +1.04 | 0.928 | $144.23 |
| 2026-10-05 | 34.06% | +2.90 | 0.903 | $144.63 |
| 2026-10-02 | 30.77% | +1.51 | 0.992 | $144.74 |
| 2026-10-01 | 31.37% | +2.17 | 0.992 | $147.50 |
| 2026-09-30 | 32.12% | +1.63 | 1.005 | $149.05 |
| 2026-09-29 | 30.10% | +2.30 | 1.024 | $151.28 |
| 2026-09-28 | 30.11% | +0.87 | 1.010 | $152.21 |
| 2026-09-25 | 29.34% | +0.83 | 1.036 | $150.93 |
| 2026-09-24 | 27.81% | +0.74 | 1.099 | $149.69 |
| 2026-09-23 | 28.06% | +1.67 | 1.096 | $151.37 |
| 2026-09-22 | 27.65% | +1.05 | 1.091 | $152.67 |
| 2026-09-21 | 27.50% | +1.40 | 1.071 | $150.56 |
| 2026-09-18 | 27.12% | +1.87 | 1.109 | $150.11 |
| 2026-09-17 | 26.75% | +1.52 | 1.132 | $150.89 |
| 2026-09-16 | 28.13% | +1.81 | 1.101 | $147.68 |
| 2026-09-15 | — | — | — | $146.30 |
| 2026-09-14 | — | — | — | $146.41 |
| 2026-09-11 | — | — | — | $143.72 |
| 2026-09-10 | — | — | — | $144.81 |
| 2026-09-09 | — | — | — | $145.65 |
| 2026-09-08 | — | — | — | $146.64 |
| 2026-09-04 | — | — | — | $151.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | 25.86% | +1.74 | 1.116 | $151.22 |
| 2026-09-02 | — | — | — | $149.61 |
| 2026-09-01 | — | — | — | $149.92 |
| 2026-08-31 | — | — | — | $146.34 |
| 2026-08-28 | — | — | — | $145.68 |
| 2026-08-27 | — | — | — | $148.86 |
| 2026-08-26 | — | — | — | $148.09 |
| 2026-08-25 | — | — | — | $148.77 |
| 2026-08-24 | — | — | — | $146.74 |
| 2026-08-21 | — | — | — | $146.12 |
| 2025-10-22 | 34.34% | +2.98 | — | $121.46 |
| 2025-10-21 | 34.08% | +2.01 | 0.822 | $124.08 |
| 2025-10-20 | 32.08% | +4.80 | 0.881 | $123.11 |
| 2025-10-17 | 38.57% | +0.77 | 0.771 | $122.81 |
| 2025-10-16 | 40.50% | +3.75 | 0.790 | $117.85 |
| 2025-10-15 | 38.80% | +3.11 | 0.822 | $118.30 |
| 2025-10-14 | 32.18% | +2.34 | 0.956 | $118.48 |
| 2025-10-10 | 37.34% | +5.44 | 0.858 | $117.18 |
| 2025-10-09 | 35.75% | +2.82 | 0.879 | $116.74 |
| 2025-10-08 | 34.61% | +2.81 | 0.899 | $118.25 |
| 2025-10-07 | 34.93% | +3.20 | 0.893 | $116.78 |
| 2025-10-06 | 36.47% | +2.06 | 0.878 | $113.58 |
| 2025-10-03 | 33.89% | +0.10 | 0.973 | $112.69 |
| 2025-10-02 | 34.99% | +3.56 | 0.904 | $110.56 |
| 2025-10-01 | 34.18% | +2.02 | 0.898 | $111.15 |
| 2025-09-30 | 31.91% | +2.67 | 0.954 | $111.00 |
| 2025-09-29 | 32.08% | +2.41 | 0.937 | $112.62 |
| 2025-09-26 | 30.95% | +2.28 | 0.969 | $112.10 |
| 2025-09-25 | 31.78% | +1.84 | 0.964 | $110.99 |
| 2025-09-24 | 29.57% | +1.04 | 1.038 | $113.67 |
| 2025-09-23 | 30.16% | +1.81 | 1.005 | $114.40 |
| 2025-09-22 | — | — | — | $112.49 |
| 2025-09-19 | 26.33% | +2.27 | 1.065 | $114.09 |
| 2025-09-18 | 28.74% | +2.17 | 0.999 | $113.62 |
| 2025-09-17 | 26.13% | +2.91 | 1.118 | $112.26 |
| 2025-09-16 | 28.61% | +1.95 | 1.031 | $110.86 |
| 2025-09-15 | 26.02% | +2.02 | 1.118 | $112.54 |
| 2025-09-12 | 26.51% | +1.86 | 1.101 | $114.55 |
| 2025-09-11 | 24.73% | +2.85 | 1.132 | $117.86 |
| 2025-09-10 | 26.46% | +2.43 | 1.081 | $115.25 |
| 2025-09-09 | 26.96% | +3.29 | 1.059 | $115.76 |
| 2025-09-08 | 26.27% | +2.53 | 1.076 | $115.88 |
| 2025-09-05 | 24.45% | +2.70 | 1.141 | $115.05 |
| 2025-09-04 | 24.23% | +3.50 | 1.136 | $112.77 |
| 2025-09-03 | 25.72% | +3.10 | 1.081 | $112.99 |
| 2025-09-02 | 25.60% | +5.98 | 1.085 | $112.71 |
| 2025-08-29 | 24.25% | +2.56 | 1.121 | $112.97 |
| 2025-08-28 | 25.15% | +4.03 | 1.097 | $112.56 |
| 2025-08-27 | 25.70% | +3.13 | 1.063 | $113.92 |
| 2025-08-26 | 24.66% | +3.45 | 1.104 | $114.75 |
| 2025-08-25 | 24.80% | +2.49 | 1.110 | $114.15 |
| 2025-08-22 | 24.19% | +5.79 | 1.115 | $114.77 |
| 2025-08-21 | 25.75% | +4.31 | 1.088 | $116.14 |
| 2025-08-20 | 24.28% | +3.91 | 1.131 | $118.73 |
| 2025-08-19 | 24.65% | +3.80 | 1.107 | $117.98 |
| 2025-08-18 | 23.53% | +4.16 | 1.133 | $117.99 |
| 2025-08-15 | 23.65% | +3.87 | 1.123 | $118.37 |
| 2025-08-14 | — | — | — | $119.02 |
| 2025-08-13 | 26.60% | +3.69 | 1.020 | $120.14 |
| 2025-08-12 | 23.70% | +3.38 | 1.109 | $120.02 |
| 2025-08-11 | 25.48% | +3.54 | 1.045 | $120.47 |
| 2025-08-08 | 24.10% | +3.87 | 1.043 | $119.41 |
| 2025-08-07 | 35.50% | +5.99 | 0.905 | $110.28 |
| 2025-08-06 | 35.57% | +3.29 | 0.833 | $110.28 |
| 2025-08-05 | 30.22% | +4.66 | 0.931 | $112.46 |
| 2025-08-04 | 30.44% | +4.38 | 0.910 | $114.51 |
| 2025-08-01 | 32.17% | +6.00 | 0.912 | $113.18 |
| 2025-07-31 | 31.49% | +4.33 | 0.886 | $112.29 |
| 2025-07-30 | 31.57% | +5.17 | 0.883 | $114.76 |
| 2025-07-29 | 32.02% | +4.52 | 0.896 | $114.23 |
| 2025-07-28 | 31.49% | +4.22 | 0.884 | $113.03 |
| 2025-07-25 | 30.99% | +3.04 | 0.888 | $116.20 |
| 2025-07-24 | — | — | — | $113.20 |
| 2025-07-23 | — | — | — | $113.56 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 339 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 339 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Δ 看涨 | 37.87% | — | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 37.60% | — | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 37.49% | 31.84% | 30.03% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 37.46% | 31.58% | 30.08% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 37.47% | 31.09% | 30.29% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 37.50% | 31.04% | 30.60% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 37.53% | 31.72% | 30.68% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 37.59% | 32.33% | 30.64% |
| ATM | 37.71% | 32.68% | 30.88% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 37.87% | 32.99% | 31.37% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 38.16% | 33.33% | 31.55% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 38.71% | 33.66% | 31.79% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 39.37% | 33.88% | 32.20% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 39.97% | 34.18% | 32.55% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 40.63% | 34.91% | 33.07% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 41.42% | 36.84% | — |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 42.35% | 39.64% | — |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 43.72% | 44.11% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $170.77 | 37.71% | 39.97% | 37.46% | +2.50 | +1.00 | 8 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $170.90 | 32.68% | 34.18% | 31.58% | +2.59 | +0.21 | 10 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $171.03 | 30.88% | 32.55% | 30.08% | +2.47 | +0.43 | 10 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $171.15 | 30.88% | 32.47% | 30.46% | +2.01 | +0.59 | 11 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $171.00 | 30.81% | 33.83% | 29.83% | +4.00 | +1.02 | 12 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $170.80 | 30.48% | 32.06% | 29.48% | +2.58 | +0.29 | 12 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $170.43 | 31.34% | 33.70% | 31.13% | +2.57 | +1.07 | 8 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $171.16 | 31.23% | 32.56% | 31.14% | +1.42 | +0.62 | 15 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $171.29 | 33.44% | 33.71% | 32.64% | +1.07 | -0.26 | 14 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $171.42 | 33.20% | 33.65% | 32.19% | +1.46 | -0.28 | 18 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $172.38 | 33.34% | 35.23% | 32.39% | +2.84 | +0.47 | 20 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $172.44 | 33.38% | 35.00% | 32.24% | +2.76 | +0.23 | 23 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $173.47 | 32.67% | 34.60% | 32.23% | +2.36 | +0.75 | 25 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $170.77 | 37.71% | $170.87 | 8 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $170.90 | 32.68% | $171.15 | 10 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $171.03 | 30.88% | $171.41 | 10 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $171.15 | 30.88% | $171.69 | 11 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $171.00 | 30.81% | $171.69 | 12 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $170.80 | 30.48% | $171.63 | 12 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $170.43 | 31.34% | $171.44 | 8 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $171.16 | 31.23% | $172.67 | 15 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $171.29 | 33.44% | $173.96 | 14 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $171.42 | 33.20% | $174.79 | 18 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $172.38 | 33.34% | $177.49 | 20 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $172.44 | 33.38% | $178.30 | 23 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $173.47 | 32.67% | $181.54 | 25 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 30.82%
- 60 天
- 31.25%
- 90 天
- 32.94%
- 180 天
- 33.32%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 339 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 2 次
- 33% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 5.5%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 31.0%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | 未说明时间 | 4.4% | -1.7% | 0.38× |
| 2026-10-29 | 收盘后 | 5.3% | +3.1% | 0.58× |
| 2026-08-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-10 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-07 | 收盘后 | 7.2% | +32.5% | 4.51× |
| 2025-04-24 | 收盘后 | 5.5% | +37.7% | 6.80× |
| 2025-02-11 | 收盘后 | 6.0% | +52.0% | 8.72× |
| 2024-11-06 | 收盘后 | 4.7% | +59.4% | 12.57× |
| 2024-08-08 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。