股票 · 期权分析
GLW 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $112.13
- 30D ATM IV
- 65.62%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 98
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +7.88
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.938
▲ +0.28 pts 较前一交易日
概览
GLW 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 65.6%,相当于未来一个月约 ±18.8% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 218 个交易日中 98% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 7.88 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 4% 的交易日差距比这更大。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 6%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-26(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±7.9% 的波动,GLW 实际平均波动 4.3%,5 次中有 4 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 65.62%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +7.88
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.69
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.938
对应 30 天内约 ±18.8% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.1%。
高于过去一年中 98% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 7.88 个点。
高于过去一年中 96% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.69 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 6%。
高于过去一年中 39% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 218 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 98%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 87%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 99%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 87%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $112.13
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $111.72
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 61.57%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 61.57%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 60.65%
- 使用的到期日数
- 14
- 总未平仓量
- 481,954
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 2.02
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 339 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 65.62% | +7.88 | 0.938 | $112.13 |
| 2026-11-09 | 65.34% | +6.82 | 0.928 | $115.95 |
| 2026-11-06 | 71.91% | +8.99 | 0.903 | $106.13 |
| 2026-11-05 | 72.47% | +9.73 | 0.911 | $103.43 |
| 2026-11-04 | 60.64% | +2.34 | 0.961 | $118.77 |
| 2026-11-03 | 61.64% | +3.19 | 0.939 | $126.14 |
| 2026-11-02 | 63.50% | +4.39 | 0.930 | $123.20 |
| 2026-10-30 | 60.57% | +3.01 | 0.939 | $123.31 |
| 2026-10-29 | 55.74% | -0.02 | 0.979 | $128.88 |
| 2026-10-28 | 56.60% | +0.29 | 0.970 | $131.20 |
| 2026-10-27 | 57.65% | -0.50 | 0.952 | $126.30 |
| 2026-10-26 | 62.55% | +0.86 | 0.891 | $127.74 |
| 2026-10-23 | 62.32% | +0.05 | 0.911 | $123.69 |
| 2026-10-22 | 65.97% | +1.07 | 0.868 | $123.99 |
| 2026-10-21 | 62.04% | +1.65 | 0.892 | $134.92 |
| 2026-10-20 | 61.61% | +1.34 | 0.901 | $132.26 |
| 2026-10-19 | 61.75% | +1.31 | 0.896 | $132.74 |
| 2026-10-16 | 64.08% | -0.08 | 0.866 | $132.00 |
| 2026-10-15 | 62.19% | -0.01 | 0.886 | $138.43 |
| 2026-10-14 | 63.69% | +0.08 | 0.857 | $140.89 |
| 2026-10-13 | 61.48% | -2.24 | 0.895 | $148.54 |
| 2026-10-09 | 60.54% | -1.69 | 0.907 | $156.68 |
| 2026-10-08 | 61.08% | -1.19 | 0.904 | $152.83 |
| 2026-10-07 | 61.38% | -1.29 | 0.921 | $163.25 |
| 2026-10-06 | 62.06% | -1.78 | 0.920 | $168.97 |
| 2026-10-05 | 60.57% | -0.80 | 0.934 | $159.37 |
| 2026-10-02 | 63.49% | -1.18 | 0.920 | $164.19 |
| 2026-10-01 | 64.05% | -0.68 | 0.922 | $160.42 |
| 2026-09-30 | 63.75% | -1.26 | 0.923 | $153.76 |
| 2026-09-29 | 63.30% | -1.48 | 0.936 | $158.71 |
| 2026-09-28 | 61.13% | -2.27 | 0.955 | $151.59 |
| 2026-09-25 | 57.40% | -0.61 | 1.019 | $156.74 |
| 2026-09-24 | 58.29% | -1.74 | 1.029 | $154.15 |
| 2026-09-23 | 57.74% | -2.33 | 1.051 | $154.48 |
| 2026-09-22 | 58.63% | -2.61 | 1.054 | $159.69 |
| 2026-09-21 | 60.55% | -2.51 | 1.009 | $158.98 |
| 2026-09-18 | 56.48% | -0.73 | 1.054 | $150.13 |
| 2026-09-17 | 55.94% | -1.41 | 1.079 | $147.80 |
| 2026-09-16 | 57.78% | -1.07 | 1.054 | $144.16 |
| 2026-09-15 | 57.84% | -1.97 | 1.079 | $143.57 |
| 2026-09-14 | 59.64% | -1.05 | 1.073 | $143.60 |
| 2026-09-11 | 56.64% | -0.55 | 1.113 | $166.40 |
| 2026-09-10 | 60.67% | -0.71 | 1.074 | $163.12 |
| 2026-09-09 | 60.70% | +1.73 | 1.086 | $168.46 |
| 2026-09-08 | 62.37% | -4.03 | 1.082 | $165.96 |
| 2026-09-04 | 57.05% | -0.95 | 1.144 | $154.30 |
| 2026-09-03 | 53.02% | +0.36 | 1.179 | $146.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | 55.19% | +1.70 | 1.151 | $144.13 |
| 2026-09-01 | 57.85% | -0.98 | 1.086 | $145.56 |
| 2026-08-31 | 56.67% | +0.80 | 1.103 | $148.73 |
| 2026-08-28 | 57.03% | -0.50 | 1.127 | $148.98 |
| 2026-08-27 | 58.69% | -0.14 | 1.114 | $152.80 |
| 2026-08-26 | 60.66% | +3.35 | 1.105 | $152.78 |
| 2026-08-25 | 61.76% | -0.96 | 1.076 | $147.16 |
| 2026-08-24 | 59.86% | -1.98 | 1.100 | $145.55 |
| 2026-08-21 | 61.25% | -0.41 | 1.113 | $149.84 |
| 2025-10-22 | 49.82% | +2.76 | 0.837 | $84.14 |
| 2025-10-21 | 47.57% | +3.67 | 0.855 | $86.05 |
| 2025-10-20 | 45.13% | +1.42 | 0.952 | $85.28 |
| 2025-10-17 | 50.11% | +2.29 | 0.836 | $84.49 |
| 2025-10-16 | 53.52% | +4.20 | 0.828 | $86.72 |
| 2025-10-15 | 49.09% | +2.14 | 0.870 | $86.62 |
| 2025-10-14 | 48.06% | +1.33 | 0.871 | $84.61 |
| 2025-10-10 | 51.23% | +2.29 | 0.857 | $82.98 |
| 2025-10-09 | 42.54% | +0.92 | 0.947 | $87.19 |
| 2025-10-08 | 43.42% | -2.21 | 0.941 | $87.07 |
| 2025-10-07 | 43.43% | +3.56 | 0.931 | $85.06 |
| 2025-10-06 | 44.20% | -1.00 | 0.898 | $85.34 |
| 2025-10-03 | 41.50% | +2.46 | 0.919 | $83.56 |
| 2025-10-02 | 41.70% | +3.54 | 0.896 | $82.52 |
| 2025-10-01 | 44.34% | +3.25 | 0.847 | $83.12 |
| 2025-09-30 | 40.83% | +1.84 | 0.888 | $82.03 |
| 2025-09-29 | 38.35% | +2.95 | 0.957 | $80.26 |
| 2025-09-26 | 34.05% | +1.67 | 1.064 | $79.35 |
| 2025-09-25 | 33.42% | +2.41 | 1.120 | $79.13 |
| 2025-09-24 | 35.65% | +0.88 | 1.038 | $79.91 |
| 2025-09-23 | 35.17% | +5.67 | 1.058 | $81.00 |
| 2025-09-22 | 35.30% | +1.09 | 1.024 | $79.16 |
| 2025-09-19 | 31.34% | +0.97 | 1.152 | $79.56 |
| 2025-09-18 | 32.15% | +0.47 | 1.081 | $79.62 |
| 2025-09-17 | 30.57% | +0.67 | 1.141 | $76.88 |
| 2025-09-16 | 30.97% | +0.95 | 1.142 | $78.70 |
| 2025-09-15 | 29.61% | +1.17 | 1.173 | $77.98 |
| 2025-09-12 | 29.75% | -0.44 | 1.148 | $77.04 |
| 2025-09-11 | 31.62% | +0.20 | 1.055 | $75.47 |
| 2025-09-10 | 29.29% | +2.41 | 1.099 | $74.93 |
| 2025-09-09 | 27.99% | +1.97 | 1.110 | $72.39 |
| 2025-09-08 | 26.57% | +2.60 | 1.154 | $72.15 |
| 2025-09-05 | 24.09% | +3.23 | 1.261 | $71.19 |
| 2025-09-04 | 26.98% | +2.23 | 1.129 | $69.72 |
| 2025-09-03 | 31.65% | +1.13 | 1.000 | $69.34 |
| 2025-09-02 | 24.04% | +2.67 | 1.248 | $68.47 |
| 2025-08-29 | 23.70% | +2.72 | 1.142 | $67.03 |
| 2025-08-28 | 22.69% | +1.78 | 1.247 | $68.93 |
| 2025-08-27 | 22.22% | +2.23 | 1.257 | $67.25 |
| 2025-08-26 | 23.51% | +2.13 | 1.198 | $67.40 |
| 2025-08-25 | 23.44% | +2.85 | 1.197 | $66.78 |
| 2025-08-22 | 22.33% | +2.79 | 1.221 | $65.77 |
| 2025-08-21 | 24.67% | +2.12 | 1.152 | $64.89 |
| 2025-08-20 | 23.59% | +2.25 | 1.185 | $64.60 |
| 2025-08-19 | 23.49% | +2.07 | 1.156 | $64.52 |
| 2025-08-18 | 21.45% | +1.30 | 1.252 | $65.52 |
| 2025-08-15 | — | — | — | $65.44 |
| 2025-08-14 | 20.74% | +2.66 | 1.296 | $65.76 |
| 2025-08-13 | 23.76% | +1.08 | 1.137 | $65.74 |
| 2025-08-12 | — | — | — | $65.75 |
| 2025-08-11 | — | — | — | $64.98 |
| 2025-08-08 | 23.07% | +0.56 | 1.172 | $65.77 |
| 2025-08-07 | 24.37% | +2.15 | 1.121 | $64.76 |
| 2025-08-06 | 24.19% | +1.76 | 1.098 | $63.98 |
| 2025-08-05 | 23.93% | +2.84 | 1.104 | $63.17 |
| 2025-08-04 | 23.15% | +2.63 | 1.143 | $63.49 |
| 2025-08-01 | 24.10% | +1.84 | 1.100 | $62.05 |
| 2025-07-31 | — | — | — | $63.24 |
| 2025-07-30 | 23.22% | +2.63 | 1.057 | $62.61 |
| 2025-07-29 | — | — | — | $61.98 |
| 2025-07-28 | — | — | — | $55.41 |
| 2025-07-25 | 30.41% | +3.47 | 0.906 | $55.36 |
| 2025-07-24 | 31.04% | +3.55 | 0.853 | $55.72 |
| 2025-07-23 | 30.74% | +4.35 | 0.915 | $55.80 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 339 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 339 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 78.04% | 70.39% | 64.44% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 78.10% | 69.38% | 63.63% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 77.90% | 69.90% | 63.19% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 78.62% | 70.54% | 63.61% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 79.56% | 71.10% | 64.17% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 80.29% | 71.59% | 64.82% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 81.95% | 71.87% | 64.87% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 81.11% | 71.88% | 65.32% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 83.49% | 73.12% | 66.25% |
| ATM | 82.22% | 73.23% | 66.51% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 83.91% | 73.59% | 66.63% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 83.63% | 74.03% | 67.39% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 83.95% | 74.71% | 68.05% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 84.88% | 74.96% | 68.35% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 86.62% | 76.46% | 69.21% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 87.68% | 77.54% | 70.69% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 89.77% | 80.16% | 71.69% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 93.21% | 84.15% | 75.06% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 104.45% | 89.43% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $111.60 | 82.22% | 86.62% | 79.56% | +7.06 | +0.87 | 37 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $111.60 | 73.23% | 76.46% | 71.10% | +5.36 | +0.55 | 53 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $111.62 | 66.51% | 69.21% | 64.17% | +5.04 | +0.18 | 28 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $111.83 | 65.57% | 69.00% | 62.40% | +6.60 | +0.14 | 11 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $111.71 | 65.63% | 70.41% | 62.37% | +8.04 | +0.76 | 12 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $111.98 | 63.65% | 67.28% | 61.39% | +5.88 | +0.69 | 23 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $112.06 | 64.17% | 68.91% | 62.41% | +6.50 | +1.48 | 11 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $112.49 | 60.91% | 64.57% | 58.69% | +5.88 | +0.72 | 27 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $112.65 | 61.77% | 64.17% | 59.14% | +5.03 | -0.12 | 25 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $113.02 | 60.90% | 64.53% | 58.84% | +5.69 | +0.79 | 30 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $113.09 | 60.78% | 62.24% | 59.32% | +2.92 | +0.01 | 27 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $113.54 | 60.59% | 62.72% | 60.73% | +1.99 | +1.14 | 32 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $114.15 | 59.30% | 63.10% | 59.66% | +3.44 | +2.08 | 34 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $115.00 | 60.47% | 61.96% | 59.63% | +2.33 | +0.32 | 31 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
14 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $111.60 | 82.22% | $111.91 | 37 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $111.60 | 73.23% | $112.42 | 53 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $111.62 | 66.51% | $112.78 | 28 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $111.83 | 65.57% | $113.42 | 11 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $111.71 | 65.63% | $113.77 | 12 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $111.98 | 63.65% | $114.37 | 23 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $112.06 | 64.17% | $114.88 | 11 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $112.49 | 60.91% | $116.33 | 27 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $112.65 | 61.77% | $118.75 | 25 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $113.02 | 60.90% | $120.68 | 30 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $113.09 | 60.78% | $122.44 | 27 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $113.54 | 60.59% | $125.05 | 32 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $114.15 | 59.30% | $126.85 | 34 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $115.00 | 60.47% | $134.39 | 31 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 65.62%
- 60 天
- 61.57%
- 90 天
- 61.57%
- 180 天
- 60.65%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 339 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 4 次
- 80% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 7.9%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 4.3%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | 开盘前 | 10.4% | -1.1% | 0.11× |
| 2026-07-28 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-28 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-28 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-29 | 开盘前 | 6.2% | +11.9% | 1.90× |
| 2025-04-29 | 开盘前 | 7.6% | +0.8% | 0.11× |
| 2025-01-29 | 开盘前 | 7.5% | -2.8% | 0.37× |
| 2024-10-29 | 开盘前 | 7.5% | +4.7% | 0.62× |
| 2024-07-30 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-07-08 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-30 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-30 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-24 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。