股票 · 期权分析
GNRC 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $181.78
- 30D ATM IV
- 55.94%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 83
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +6.63
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.021
▼ -1.98 pts 较前一交易日
概览
GNRC 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 55.9%,相当于未来一个月约 ±16.0% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 188 个交易日中 83% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 6.63 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 7% 的交易日差距比这更大。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-27(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±10.3% 的波动,GNRC 实际平均波动 6.9%,6 次中有 4 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 55.94%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +6.63
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +1.95
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.021
对应 30 天内约 ±16.0% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.5%。
高于过去一年中 83% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 6.63 个点。
高于过去一年中 93% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 1.95 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 2%。
高于过去一年中 52% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 188 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 83%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 70%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 88%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 70%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $181.78
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $182.00
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 55.12%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 57.13%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 56.60%
- 使用的到期日数
- 9
- 总未平仓量
- 33,597
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.08
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 338 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 55.94% | +6.63 | 1.021 | $181.78 |
| 2026-11-09 | 57.92% | +4.50 | 0.970 | $188.75 |
| 2026-11-06 | 60.13% | +5.46 | 0.962 | $176.78 |
| 2026-11-05 | 63.07% | +5.31 | 0.933 | $172.33 |
| 2026-11-04 | 56.47% | +2.62 | 0.972 | $189.32 |
| 2026-11-03 | 56.34% | +2.90 | 0.970 | $209.28 |
| 2026-11-02 | 55.44% | +2.05 | 0.968 | $202.04 |
| 2026-10-30 | 57.34% | +3.03 | 0.940 | $197.93 |
| 2026-10-29 | 54.06% | +1.62 | 0.948 | $203.36 |
| 2026-10-28 | 53.84% | +2.33 | 0.958 | $201.34 |
| 2026-10-27 | 61.09% | +7.26 | 0.871 | $193.71 |
| 2026-10-26 | 63.66% | +3.95 | 0.852 | $189.23 |
| 2026-10-23 | 65.45% | +0.73 | 0.859 | $186.92 |
| 2026-10-22 | 68.28% | +0.58 | 0.841 | $188.02 |
| 2026-10-21 | 64.38% | +3.14 | 0.853 | $203.14 |
| 2026-10-20 | 63.26% | +0.92 | 0.848 | $194.60 |
| 2026-10-19 | 62.59% | -0.57 | 0.849 | $193.31 |
| 2026-10-16 | 61.54% | +2.33 | 0.863 | $192.68 |
| 2026-10-15 | 62.67% | -0.15 | 0.848 | $198.40 |
| 2026-10-14 | 62.00% | +0.26 | 0.839 | $198.06 |
| 2026-10-13 | 60.14% | +2.07 | 0.850 | $214.29 |
| 2026-10-09 | 58.86% | -1.25 | 0.869 | $224.94 |
| 2026-10-08 | 58.44% | +0.10 | 0.911 | $224.40 |
| 2026-10-07 | 60.51% | +1.65 | 0.864 | $221.34 |
| 2026-10-06 | 60.00% | +1.21 | 0.866 | $223.62 |
| 2026-10-05 | 58.13% | +5.06 | 0.878 | $215.20 |
| 2026-10-02 | 58.88% | +0.34 | 0.892 | $216.80 |
| 2026-10-01 | 58.57% | +3.07 | 0.905 | $207.91 |
| 2026-09-30 | 58.63% | +2.41 | 0.897 | $206.95 |
| 2026-09-29 | 51.06% | -0.24 | 1.039 | $212.22 |
| 2026-09-28 | 54.55% | -0.39 | 0.967 | $205.21 |
| 2026-09-25 | 50.66% | -1.77 | 1.050 | $208.14 |
| 2026-09-24 | 48.38% | -1.55 | 1.075 | $198.05 |
| 2026-09-23 | 49.87% | -1.16 | 1.031 | $199.42 |
| 2026-09-22 | 47.33% | -1.98 | 1.081 | $206.17 |
| 2026-09-21 | 49.25% | -2.77 | 1.057 | $204.96 |
| 2026-09-18 | 47.60% | -0.21 | 1.093 | $207.44 |
| 2026-09-17 | 51.86% | -1.26 | 1.056 | $207.23 |
| 2026-09-16 | 46.79% | +0.52 | 1.130 | $175.11 |
| 2026-09-15 | — | — | — | $175.03 |
| 2026-09-14 | — | — | — | $176.98 |
| 2026-09-11 | — | — | — | $186.99 |
| 2026-09-10 | — | — | — | $181.67 |
| 2026-09-09 | — | — | — | $186.48 |
| 2026-09-08 | — | — | — | $190.21 |
| 2026-09-04 | — | — | — | $187.35 |
| 2026-09-03 | — | — | — | $183.02 |
| 2026-09-02 | 47.87% | -1.19 | 1.155 | $180.76 |
| 2026-09-01 | 48.30% | +3.55 | 1.148 | $181.42 |
| 2026-08-31 | 52.60% | +2.54 | 1.050 | $185.38 |
| 2026-08-28 | — | — | — | $183.80 |
| 2026-08-27 | 46.40% | +1.48 | 1.151 | $197.29 |
| 2026-08-26 | 48.05% | -0.98 | 1.121 | $206.62 |
| 2026-08-25 | — | — | — | $201.78 |
| 2026-08-24 | 47.98% | +2.35 | 1.138 | $203.56 |
| 2025-10-22 | — | — | — | $183.09 |
| 2025-10-21 | 54.81% | -3.13 | 0.831 | $192.50 |
| 2025-10-20 | 56.79% | +1.96 | 0.808 | $195.77 |
| 2025-10-17 | — | — | — | $190.49 |
| 2025-10-16 | 63.93% | -3.46 | 0.760 | $192.64 |
| 2025-10-15 | 57.07% | +1.31 | 0.850 | $191.67 |
| 2025-10-14 | — | — | — | $183.82 |
| 2025-10-10 | — | — | — | $170.08 |
| 2025-10-09 | — | — | — | $171.92 |
| 2025-10-08 | 57.21% | -1.59 | 0.765 | $171.33 |
| 2025-10-07 | 49.81% | -1.76 | 0.898 | $166.95 |
| 2025-10-06 | 47.78% | +1.06 | 0.940 | $164.13 |
| 2025-10-03 | 52.66% | +2.58 | 0.861 | $165.67 |
| 2025-10-02 | 44.17% | +1.83 | 0.999 | $169.99 |
| 2025-10-01 | 45.73% | +1.01 | 0.960 | $167.89 |
| 2025-09-30 | 42.52% | +0.71 | 1.044 | $167.40 |
| 2025-09-29 | 44.22% | +2.10 | 0.975 | $165.82 |
| 2025-09-26 | 44.11% | +0.82 | 0.980 | $168.27 |
| 2025-09-25 | 46.15% | +1.94 | 0.942 | $164.26 |
| 2025-09-24 | 47.48% | +2.95 | 0.931 | $167.36 |
| 2025-09-23 | 46.60% | -1.81 | 0.959 | $166.77 |
| 2025-09-22 | 40.52% | +0.98 | 1.035 | $185.86 |
| 2025-09-19 | 36.81% | +2.33 | 1.162 | $182.28 |
| 2025-09-18 | 36.95% | +2.03 | 1.120 | $184.04 |
| 2025-09-17 | 35.33% | +1.45 | 1.164 | $181.29 |
| 2025-09-16 | — | — | — | $183.61 |
| 2025-09-15 | 35.28% | +1.92 | 1.162 | $185.71 |
| 2025-09-12 | 34.39% | +0.49 | 1.186 | $184.39 |
| 2025-09-11 | 37.22% | +0.76 | 1.068 | $187.86 |
| 2025-09-10 | 33.02% | +2.72 | 1.218 | $185.01 |
| 2025-09-09 | 31.68% | +1.86 | 1.244 | $181.80 |
| 2025-09-08 | 30.16% | +5.38 | 1.302 | $183.97 |
| 2025-09-05 | 32.58% | +1.72 | 1.208 | $181.30 |
| 2025-09-04 | 31.05% | +2.02 | 1.254 | $178.18 |
| 2025-09-03 | 32.20% | +2.62 | 1.216 | $175.14 |
| 2025-09-02 | 32.93% | +3.34 | 1.184 | $179.51 |
| 2025-08-29 | 27.68% | +3.00 | 1.373 | $185.25 |
| 2025-08-28 | 29.89% | +1.48 | 1.282 | $186.92 |
| 2025-08-27 | 29.18% | +3.54 | 1.323 | $186.99 |
| 2025-08-26 | 31.11% | +2.40 | 1.259 | $189.32 |
| 2025-08-25 | 29.36% | +1.76 | 1.299 | $193.28 |
| 2025-08-22 | 28.47% | +1.59 | 1.340 | $194.64 |
| 2025-08-21 | 31.51% | +2.08 | 1.238 | $190.55 |
| 2025-08-20 | 33.01% | +4.68 | 1.198 | $189.65 |
| 2025-08-19 | 29.40% | +1.09 | 1.284 | $199.08 |
| 2025-08-18 | 29.36% | -0.51 | 1.278 | $198.14 |
| 2025-08-15 | 30.21% | -1.72 | 1.216 | $198.80 |
| 2025-08-14 | 28.41% | +0.67 | 1.284 | $198.97 |
| 2025-08-13 | 27.65% | +0.65 | 1.337 | $202.85 |
| 2025-08-12 | 27.54% | +0.52 | 1.344 | $198.86 |
| 2025-08-11 | 29.10% | +0.74 | 1.279 | $196.52 |
| 2025-08-08 | 29.62% | +0.62 | 1.250 | $196.25 |
| 2025-08-07 | 30.90% | +0.96 | 1.214 | $193.52 |
| 2025-08-06 | 32.24% | +0.39 | 1.166 | $193.91 |
| 2025-08-05 | 32.93% | +1.43 | 1.156 | $197.28 |
| 2025-08-04 | 34.23% | +0.21 | 1.129 | $196.43 |
| 2025-08-01 | 34.80% | +1.91 | 1.122 | $193.63 |
| 2025-07-31 | 36.65% | -1.25 | 1.067 | $194.69 |
| 2025-07-30 | 35.96% | +1.35 | 1.052 | $181.00 |
| 2025-07-29 | 47.37% | +1.03 | 0.836 | $151.32 |
| 2025-07-28 | 44.95% | +3.02 | 0.849 | $155.46 |
| 2025-07-25 | 45.27% | +2.95 | 0.864 | $156.96 |
| 2025-07-24 | 44.70% | +2.74 | 0.871 | $153.39 |
| 2025-07-23 | 45.43% | +3.58 | 0.892 | $152.92 |
| 2025-07-22 | 47.51% | +2.52 | 0.853 | $150.29 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 338 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Δ 看涨 | — | 61.77% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | — | 61.95% | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 70.66% | 60.25% | — |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 70.76% | 61.27% | 53.92% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 70.78% | 60.09% | 55.38% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 71.15% | 59.45% | 54.44% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 72.02% | 60.96% | 56.14% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 72.79% | 61.68% | 56.68% |
| ATM | 73.17% | 61.79% | 57.15% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 73.31% | 61.61% | 57.61% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 73.23% | 64.01% | 58.42% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 73.03% | 63.47% | 59.39% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 72.77% | 64.18% | 60.15% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 76.69% | 64.74% | 61.20% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 78.99% | 67.32% | 62.26% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $181.45 | 73.17% | 76.69% | 70.76% | +5.93 | +0.56 | 10 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $181.65 | 61.79% | 64.74% | 61.27% | +3.47 | +1.22 | 16 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $181.90 | 57.15% | 61.20% | 53.92% | +7.28 | +0.40 | 11 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $182.06 | 55.60% | 61.20% | 54.75% | +6.45 | +2.38 | 15 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $182.42 | 55.04% | 57.05% | 52.35% | +4.70 | -0.34 | 18 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $182.98 | 57.74% | 59.59% | 56.44% | +3.16 | +0.27 | 17 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $185.41 | 56.50% | 58.40% | 55.97% | +2.43 | +0.68 | 28 |
| 2027-08-20 | 283 | $187.28 | 56.57% | 57.78% | 55.53% | +2.25 | +0.09 | 34 |
| 2027-11-19 | 374 | $189.21 | 55.83% | 57.17% | 54.36% | +2.81 | -0.06 | 38 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
9 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $181.45 | 73.17% | $181.85 | 10 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $181.65 | 61.79% | $182.60 | 16 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $181.90 | 57.15% | $183.29 | 11 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $182.06 | 55.60% | $185.01 | 15 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $182.42 | 55.04% | $187.48 | 18 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $182.98 | 57.74% | $191.62 | 17 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $185.41 | 56.50% | $201.65 | 28 |
| 2027-08-20 | 283 天 | $187.28 | 56.57% | $212.01 | 34 |
| 2027-11-19 | 374 天 | $189.21 | 55.83% | $221.97 | 38 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 55.94%
- 60 天
- 55.12%
- 90 天
- 57.13%
- 180 天
- 56.60%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 4 次
- 67% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 10.3%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 6.9%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 未说明时间 | 6.1% | -9.0% | 1.48× |
| 2026-10-28 | 开盘前 | 10.8% | +3.9% | 0.37× |
| 2026-07-29 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-11 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-29 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-30 | 开盘前 | 12.0% | +19.6% | 1.63× |
| 2025-04-30 | 开盘前 | 13.3% | +1.0% | 0.08× |
| 2025-02-12 | 开盘前 | 10.1% | +7.6% | 0.75× |
| 2024-10-31 | 开盘前 | 9.5% | +0.2% | 0.03× |
| 2024-07-31 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-01 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-14 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-01 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。