股票 · 期权分析
HOOD 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $81.33
- 30D ATM IV
- 66.05%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 52
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +6.30
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.965
▲ +1.46 pts 较前一交易日
概览
HOOD 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 66.0%,相当于未来一个月约 ±18.9% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 251 个交易日中 52% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 6.30 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 3%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-26(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 8 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±10.9% 的波动,HOOD 实际平均波动 73.1%,8 次中有 3 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 66.05%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +6.30
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.86
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.965
对应 30 天内约 ±18.9% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.2%。
高于过去一年中 52% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 6.30 个点。
高于过去一年中 89% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.86 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 3%。
高于过去一年中 39% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 251 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 52%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 18%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 55%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 26%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $81.33
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $81.14
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 63.49%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 63.75%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 63.68%
- 使用的到期日数
- 14
- 总未平仓量
- 1,361,874
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.84
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 334 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 66.05% | +6.30 | 0.965 | $81.33 |
| 2026-11-09 | 64.59% | +6.73 | 0.972 | $83.32 |
| 2026-11-06 | 66.91% | +8.74 | 0.964 | $80.91 |
| 2026-11-05 | 72.05% | +10.35 | 0.916 | $78.39 |
| 2026-11-04 | 61.46% | +3.74 | 0.991 | $87.41 |
| 2026-11-03 | 64.73% | +5.00 | 0.967 | $85.68 |
| 2026-11-02 | 63.82% | +5.95 | 0.970 | $83.84 |
| 2026-10-30 | 59.65% | +7.26 | 0.999 | $84.99 |
| 2026-10-29 | 54.93% | +1.02 | 1.031 | $91.59 |
| 2026-10-28 | 55.75% | +0.66 | 1.019 | $91.43 |
| 2026-10-27 | 66.27% | +1.21 | 0.928 | $94.56 |
| 2026-10-26 | 67.75% | +1.94 | 0.911 | $92.84 |
| 2026-10-23 | 68.58% | +2.03 | 0.901 | $95.07 |
| 2026-10-22 | 68.75% | +1.82 | 0.902 | $96.58 |
| 2026-10-21 | 66.14% | +1.05 | 0.910 | $101.93 |
| 2026-10-20 | 66.45% | +1.97 | 0.910 | $98.21 |
| 2026-10-19 | 66.97% | +2.66 | 0.908 | $96.52 |
| 2026-10-16 | 69.03% | +4.95 | 0.896 | $98.87 |
| 2026-10-15 | 66.50% | +0.74 | 0.915 | $103.99 |
| 2026-10-14 | 66.16% | +2.23 | 0.908 | $101.08 |
| 2026-10-13 | 65.16% | -1.10 | 0.911 | $110.52 |
| 2026-10-09 | 62.04% | -1.50 | 0.940 | $109.02 |
| 2026-10-08 | 64.07% | -1.29 | 0.926 | $107.01 |
| 2026-10-07 | 62.18% | -1.97 | 0.934 | $109.51 |
| 2026-10-06 | 62.25% | -2.11 | 0.938 | $112.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | 62.87% | -1.22 | 0.941 | $114.11 |
| 2026-10-02 | 61.93% | -1.03 | 0.962 | $112.74 |
| 2026-10-01 | 60.78% | -2.49 | 0.990 | $111.15 |
| 2026-09-30 | 60.64% | -2.06 | 1.008 | $112.50 |
| 2026-09-29 | 62.06% | -1.76 | 1.002 | $116.22 |
| 2026-09-28 | 61.88% | -1.03 | 1.009 | $116.46 |
| 2026-09-25 | 58.81% | -1.44 | 1.046 | $119.40 |
| 2026-09-24 | 61.35% | -1.77 | 1.033 | $120.82 |
| 2026-09-23 | 61.53% | -1.32 | 1.056 | $122.70 |
| 2026-09-22 | 61.72% | -2.38 | 1.061 | $124.25 |
| 2026-09-21 | 63.26% | -2.61 | 1.051 | $123.30 |
| 2026-09-18 | 61.07% | -2.96 | 1.083 | $119.82 |
| 2026-09-17 | 59.32% | -0.85 | 1.078 | $109.81 |
| 2026-09-16 | 61.28% | +0.87 | 1.065 | $104.42 |
| 2026-09-15 | 62.23% | -0.28 | 1.065 | $110.45 |
| 2026-09-14 | 64.21% | -2.12 | 1.061 | $114.33 |
| 2026-09-11 | 59.24% | -1.47 | 1.122 | $112.57 |
| 2026-09-10 | 61.98% | -2.81 | 1.079 | $113.33 |
| 2026-09-09 | 62.21% | -3.23 | 1.071 | $115.28 |
| 2026-09-08 | 61.44% | -4.10 | 1.105 | $117.34 |
| 2026-09-04 | 61.77% | -3.34 | 1.089 | $122.11 |
| 2026-09-03 | 65.55% | -3.08 | 1.039 | $124.72 |
| 2026-09-02 | 60.52% | -1.75 | 1.075 | $106.99 |
| 2026-09-01 | 59.36% | -1.56 | 1.069 | $103.51 |
| 2026-08-31 | 58.12% | -0.79 | 1.107 | $104.81 |
| 2026-08-28 | 57.19% | -1.06 | 1.103 | $104.26 |
| 2025-10-22 | 73.95% | +5.10 | 0.920 | $127.22 |
| 2025-10-21 | 72.84% | +2.86 | 0.913 | $131.84 |
| 2025-10-20 | 72.85% | +4.44 | 0.911 | $135.80 |
| 2025-10-17 | 74.50% | +5.98 | 0.897 | $129.91 |
| 2025-10-16 | 77.56% | +7.46 | 0.899 | $131.44 |
| 2025-10-15 | 75.28% | +3.11 | 0.903 | $134.15 |
| 2025-10-14 | 75.42% | +4.45 | 0.905 | $134.95 |
| 2025-10-10 | 76.74% | +7.25 | 0.907 | $138.96 |
| 2025-10-09 | 70.93% | +1.73 | 0.942 | $152.46 |
| 2025-10-08 | 70.98% | +2.09 | 0.939 | $150.87 |
| 2025-10-07 | 70.33% | +2.85 | 0.945 | $145.00 |
| 2025-10-06 | 70.61% | +2.08 | 0.953 | $144.26 |
| 2025-10-03 | 63.79% | +2.54 | — | $148.67 |
| 2025-10-02 | 62.35% | +1.48 | — | $145.70 |
| 2025-10-01 | 66.82% | +2.00 | 0.981 | $139.14 |
| 2025-09-30 | 68.71% | +1.88 | 0.982 | $143.18 |
| 2025-09-29 | 66.64% | +0.60 | 0.988 | $136.72 |
| 2025-09-26 | 57.14% | +1.49 | 1.101 | $121.78 |
| 2025-09-25 | 59.07% | +3.65 | 1.081 | $122.65 |
| 2025-09-24 | 57.62% | +2.03 | 1.102 | $126.80 |
| 2025-09-23 | 57.19% | +1.33 | 1.103 | $126.20 |
| 2025-09-22 | 56.77% | -0.02 | 1.089 | $124.89 |
| 2025-09-19 | 56.03% | +1.15 | 1.092 | $124.78 |
| 2025-09-18 | 57.82% | -0.34 | 1.075 | $120.91 |
| 2025-09-17 | 58.25% | +0.99 | 1.070 | $118.64 |
| 2025-09-16 | 59.71% | +0.32 | 1.050 | $117.38 |
| 2025-09-15 | 58.59% | +1.14 | 1.058 | $114.83 |
| 2025-09-12 | 56.57% | +1.47 | 1.079 | $115.03 |
| 2025-09-11 | 56.85% | +1.83 | 1.084 | $117.75 |
| 2025-09-10 | 60.24% | +0.97 | 1.049 | $117.46 |
| 2025-09-09 | 59.45% | +1.23 | 1.068 | $118.50 |
| 2025-09-08 | 59.17% | +0.21 | 1.061 | $117.28 |
| 2025-09-05 | 59.75% | +2.23 | 1.055 | $101.25 |
| 2025-09-04 | 60.50% | +1.86 | 1.032 | $102.91 |
| 2025-09-03 | 60.61% | +2.55 | 1.036 | $100.82 |
| 2025-09-02 | 64.24% | +0.99 | 0.999 | $100.84 |
| 2025-08-29 | 60.23% | +0.64 | 1.052 | $104.03 |
| 2025-08-28 | 60.85% | +1.68 | 1.048 | $103.69 |
| 2025-08-27 | 64.58% | +2.02 | 1.034 | $102.92 |
| 2025-08-26 | 64.55% | +2.40 | 1.021 | $108.80 |
| 2025-08-25 | 66.03% | +1.63 | 1.014 | $107.94 |
| 2025-08-22 | 62.50% | +4.25 | 1.044 | $109.32 |
| 2025-08-21 | 65.49% | +4.24 | 1.021 | $106.30 |
| 2025-08-20 | 65.66% | +4.62 | 1.011 | $105.34 |
| 2025-08-19 | 65.60% | +3.90 | 1.017 | $107.50 |
| 2025-08-18 | 59.85% | +1.62 | 1.076 | $115.02 |
| 2025-08-15 | 63.60% | -1.27 | 1.013 | $114.17 |
| 2025-08-14 | 62.40% | +0.02 | 1.026 | $110.71 |
| 2025-08-13 | 60.42% | +2.51 | 1.043 | $108.62 |
| 2025-08-12 | 59.54% | +0.33 | 1.060 | $114.09 |
| 2025-08-11 | 61.87% | +1.00 | 1.058 | $113.62 |
| 2025-08-08 | 60.27% | +0.84 | 1.057 | $114.63 |
| 2025-08-07 | 63.53% | +1.74 | 1.011 | $111.23 |
| 2025-08-06 | 62.94% | +0.77 | 1.012 | $105.65 |
| 2025-08-05 | 63.26% | +0.60 | 1.018 | $105.46 |
| 2025-08-04 | 63.10% | +1.68 | 1.021 | $106.37 |
| 2025-08-01 | 63.04% | +2.23 | 1.020 | $99.90 |
| 2025-07-31 | 60.81% | -0.57 | 1.001 | $103.05 |
| 2025-07-30 | 65.65% | +2.38 | 0.966 | $106.10 |
| 2025-07-29 | 69.00% | -1.26 | 0.942 | $103.32 |
| 2025-07-28 | 64.31% | -2.15 | 0.993 | $106.77 |
| 2025-07-25 | 65.44% | -1.65 | 0.962 | $104.85 |
| 2025-07-24 | 64.99% | +0.24 | 0.975 | $101.93 |
| 2025-07-23 | 69.28% | -2.08 | 0.927 | $102.08 |
| 2025-07-22 | 69.01% | +1.16 | 0.946 | $101.85 |
| 2025-07-21 | 71.02% | +1.75 | 0.939 | $104.34 |
| 2025-07-18 | 75.55% | -2.90 | 0.900 | $109.74 |
| 2025-07-17 | 72.39% | -2.33 | 0.907 | $105.45 |
| 2025-07-16 | 73.03% | -2.75 | 0.902 | $103.25 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 334 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 334 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 79.65% | 72.99% | 65.49% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 77.81% | 70.29% | 64.32% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 77.27% | 69.83% | 64.07% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 77.25% | 69.76% | 64.18% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 77.67% | 69.74% | 64.42% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 78.28% | 70.07% | 64.65% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 78.73% | 70.52% | 64.95% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 79.23% | 70.99% | 65.39% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 79.77% | 71.55% | 66.06% |
| ATM | 80.14% | 72.14% | 66.62% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 80.97% | 72.65% | 67.23% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 81.51% | 73.79% | 67.81% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 81.88% | 74.09% | 68.49% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 82.99% | 75.22% | 69.41% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 84.09% | 76.50% | 70.26% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 85.06% | 77.83% | 71.40% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 86.62% | 79.67% | 72.89% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 88.84% | 81.90% | 75.94% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 94.40% | 87.62% | 83.02% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $80.89 | 80.14% | 84.09% | 77.67% | +6.42 | +0.74 | 43 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $80.95 | 72.14% | 76.50% | 69.74% | +6.76 | +0.98 | 58 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $81.00 | 66.62% | 70.26% | 64.42% | +5.84 | +0.72 | 55 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $81.08 | 66.08% | 70.13% | 64.32% | +5.81 | +1.15 | 56 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $81.15 | 66.04% | 70.05% | 63.68% | +6.37 | +0.82 | 62 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $81.18 | 65.54% | 69.14% | 62.97% | +6.18 | +0.52 | 27 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $80.97 | 65.50% | 68.17% | 62.51% | +5.66 | -0.16 | 44 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $81.49 | 62.97% | 66.39% | 60.78% | +5.62 | +0.61 | 31 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $81.87 | 63.98% | 67.85% | 62.10% | +5.74 | +0.99 | 31 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $82.21 | 63.43% | 67.32% | 61.42% | +5.90 | +0.94 | 30 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $82.32 | 63.19% | 67.00% | 61.76% | +5.24 | +1.19 | 31 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $82.57 | 63.89% | 66.62% | 61.97% | +4.65 | +0.40 | 33 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $82.97 | 63.16% | 66.29% | 61.84% | +4.45 | +0.90 | 41 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $84.32 | 62.44% | 66.58% | 61.20% | +5.38 | +1.45 | 35 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
14 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $80.89 | 80.14% | $81.11 | 43 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $80.95 | 72.14% | $81.53 | 58 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $81.00 | 66.62% | $81.84 | 55 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $81.08 | 66.08% | $82.25 | 56 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $81.15 | 66.04% | $82.67 | 62 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $81.18 | 65.54% | $83.02 | 27 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $80.97 | 65.50% | $83.10 | 44 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $81.49 | 62.97% | $84.46 | 31 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $81.87 | 63.98% | $86.64 | 31 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $82.21 | 63.43% | $88.27 | 30 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $82.32 | 63.19% | $89.70 | 31 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $82.57 | 63.89% | $91.93 | 33 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $82.97 | 63.16% | $93.52 | 41 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $84.32 | 62.44% | $99.56 | 35 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 66.05%
- 60 天
- 63.49%
- 90 天
- 63.75%
- 180 天
- 63.68%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 334 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 8 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 8 次中 3 次
- 38% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 10.9%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 73.1%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 未说明时间 | 6.2% | -10.3% | 1.67× |
| 2026-10-28 | 未说明时间 | 5.4% | +0.2% | 0.03× |
| 2026-10-27 | 收盘后 | 11.3% | -3.3% | 0.29× |
| 2026-07-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-10 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-31 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-30 | 收盘后 | 11.2% | -1.7% | 0.16× |
| 2025-04-30 | 收盘后 | 14.9% | +112.3% | 7.54× |
| 2025-02-12 | 收盘后 | 15.8% | +86.5% | 5.49× |
| 2025-01-31 | 收盘后 | 8.0% | +100.7% | 12.58× |
| 2024-10-30 | 收盘后 | 14.2% | +269.6% | 18.99× |
| 2024-08-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-07-31 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-08 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-13 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-31 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-31 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。