股票 · 期权分析
HPE 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $47.93
- 30D ATM IV
- 78.04%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 97
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +6.62
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.871
▼ -6.63 pts 较前一交易日
本交易日部分指标不可用
概览
HPE 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 78.0%,相当于未来一个月约 ±22.4% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 251 个交易日中 97% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 6.62 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 7% 的交易日差距比这更大。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 13%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2026-11-23 收盘后。
在最近 7 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±10.7% 的波动,HPE 实际平均波动 136.3%,7 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 78.04%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +6.62
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +4.30
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.871
对应 30 天内约 ±22.4% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.9%。
高于过去一年中 97% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 6.62 个点。
高于过去一年中 93% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 4.30 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 13%。
高于过去一年中 25% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 251 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 97%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 80%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 98%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 80%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $47.93
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $47.83
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 73.02%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 67.97%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 66.61%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 399,711
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.98
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 338 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 78.04% | +6.62 | 0.871 | $47.93 |
| 2026-11-09 | 84.66% | +4.87 | 0.811 | $47.54 |
| 2026-11-06 | 83.53% | +6.57 | 0.835 | $44.77 |
| 2026-11-05 | 90.42% | +5.08 | 0.845 | $44.16 |
| 2026-11-04 | 80.27% | +5.13 | 0.862 | $50.09 |
| 2026-11-03 | 81.57% | +2.57 | 0.847 | $53.10 |
| 2026-11-02 | 78.90% | +3.48 | 0.884 | $51.19 |
| 2026-10-30 | 69.55% | -0.28 | 0.955 | $55.09 |
| 2026-10-29 | 62.55% | +0.90 | 1.029 | $58.87 |
| 2026-10-28 | 58.43% | +6.30 | 1.101 | $60.33 |
| 2026-10-27 | 65.95% | -1.64 | 0.982 | $60.84 |
| 2026-10-26 | 62.15% | +1.93 | 1.039 | $58.72 |
| 2026-10-23 | 59.86% | +0.08 | 1.103 | $56.69 |
| 2026-10-22 | 64.89% | +4.00 | 1.011 | $55.47 |
| 2026-10-21 | 62.58% | +3.12 | 1.031 | $58.17 |
| 2026-10-20 | 62.58% | +3.27 | 1.031 | $56.09 |
| 2026-10-19 | 65.30% | +2.88 | 0.990 | $55.87 |
| 2026-10-16 | 66.75% | +2.35 | 1.007 | $55.13 |
| 2026-10-15 | 64.67% | +3.54 | 1.022 | $58.63 |
| 2026-10-14 | 66.32% | -0.82 | 0.991 | $63.11 |
| 2026-10-13 | 61.25% | -0.73 | 1.047 | $68.81 |
| 2026-10-09 | 59.32% | +0.03 | 1.091 | $73.46 |
| 2026-10-08 | 58.29% | -2.20 | 1.136 | $71.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | 60.01% | -1.50 | 1.115 | $72.09 |
| 2026-10-06 | 59.65% | -2.76 | 1.079 | $70.48 |
| 2026-10-05 | 59.78% | -1.77 | 1.092 | $68.36 |
| 2026-10-02 | 64.02% | -1.49 | 1.062 | $69.33 |
| 2026-10-01 | 59.83% | -0.68 | 1.108 | $64.58 |
| 2026-09-30 | 63.83% | -1.20 | 1.049 | $63.89 |
| 2026-09-29 | 62.96% | -2.17 | 1.055 | $61.49 |
| 2026-09-28 | 63.72% | -0.06 | 1.053 | $62.63 |
| 2026-09-25 | 61.67% | -2.09 | 1.085 | $62.94 |
| 2026-09-24 | 63.36% | -3.80 | 1.088 | $63.52 |
| 2026-09-23 | 63.68% | -2.06 | 1.079 | $62.33 |
| 2026-09-22 | 61.89% | -0.14 | 1.092 | $61.03 |
| 2026-09-21 | 61.04% | -1.07 | 1.103 | $61.75 |
| 2026-09-18 | 60.26% | -1.29 | 1.088 | $60.76 |
| 2026-09-17 | 62.47% | -2.26 | 1.075 | $61.04 |
| 2026-09-16 | 60.21% | -0.68 | 1.065 | $56.68 |
| 2026-09-15 | 58.91% | -0.31 | 1.094 | $55.88 |
| 2026-09-14 | 60.50% | -2.22 | 1.064 | $55.41 |
| 2026-09-11 | 62.62% | -0.55 | 1.046 | $62.09 |
| 2026-09-10 | 57.56% | -1.12 | 1.077 | $55.22 |
| 2026-09-09 | 61.12% | -1.29 | 1.049 | $58.90 |
| 2026-09-08 | 61.46% | -3.30 | 1.014 | $56.03 |
| 2026-09-04 | 55.16% | -2.77 | 1.064 | $52.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | 57.80% | +0.37 | 1.037 | $54.44 |
| 2026-09-02 | 75.99% | -0.03 | 0.865 | $51.83 |
| 2026-09-01 | 74.05% | -0.72 | 0.845 | $50.87 |
| 2026-08-31 | 72.72% | -7.35 | 0.899 | $52.24 |
| 2026-08-28 | 71.54% | -1.81 | 0.884 | $52.31 |
| 2026-08-27 | 74.53% | +1.84 | 0.873 | $54.41 |
| 2026-08-26 | 74.68% | +4.76 | 0.896 | $55.23 |
| 2026-08-25 | 73.76% | -0.61 | 0.889 | $53.44 |
| 2026-08-24 | 72.94% | -0.13 | 0.921 | $52.43 |
| 2025-10-22 | 38.76% | +1.60 | 1.036 | $23.09 |
| 2025-10-21 | 34.97% | +1.58 | 1.097 | $23.27 |
| 2025-10-20 | 35.50% | +3.22 | 1.123 | $22.87 |
| 2025-10-17 | 38.17% | +0.39 | 1.089 | $22.96 |
| 2025-10-16 | 43.58% | +0.95 | 1.028 | $22.50 |
| 2025-10-15 | 53.88% | +0.20 | 0.870 | $25.04 |
| 2025-10-14 | 54.74% | +0.87 | 0.884 | $25.00 |
| 2025-10-10 | 59.70% | +0.58 | 0.874 | $24.40 |
| 2025-10-09 | 53.39% | -0.30 | 0.881 | $26.25 |
| 2025-10-08 | 52.95% | -0.13 | 0.875 | $26.08 |
| 2025-10-07 | 42.70% | +1.33 | 1.022 | $24.91 |
| 2025-10-06 | 45.45% | +1.19 | 0.947 | $24.79 |
| 2025-10-03 | 42.58% | +2.05 | 0.968 | $24.43 |
| 2025-10-02 | 41.58% | +1.89 | 0.972 | $24.48 |
| 2025-10-01 | 42.31% | +2.25 | 0.961 | $24.93 |
| 2025-09-30 | 40.80% | +2.18 | 0.981 | $24.56 |
| 2025-09-29 | 41.32% | +1.16 | 0.943 | $24.14 |
| 2025-09-26 | 39.45% | +2.03 | 0.970 | $24.00 |
| 2025-09-25 | 40.08% | +1.23 | 0.958 | $24.21 |
| 2025-09-24 | 38.98% | +1.36 | 0.971 | $24.46 |
| 2025-09-23 | 39.83% | +1.28 | 0.948 | $24.70 |
| 2025-09-22 | 38.89% | +3.65 | 0.980 | $25.16 |
| 2025-09-19 | 37.61% | +3.24 | 0.987 | $24.99 |
| 2025-09-18 | 39.35% | +1.90 | 0.947 | $25.24 |
| 2025-09-17 | 38.76% | +1.50 | 0.953 | $24.73 |
| 2025-09-16 | 38.08% | +1.61 | 0.953 | $24.43 |
| 2025-09-15 | 36.19% | +1.55 | 0.999 | $24.84 |
| 2025-09-12 | 32.00% | +1.42 | 1.086 | $24.73 |
| 2025-09-11 | 32.08% | +1.30 | 1.097 | $24.86 |
| 2025-09-10 | 35.16% | +0.45 | 1.002 | $24.44 |
| 2025-09-09 | 35.87% | +1.93 | 0.972 | $23.88 |
| 2025-09-08 | 30.67% | +1.65 | 1.132 | $23.50 |
| 2025-09-05 | 35.00% | +2.49 | 1.025 | $23.52 |
| 2025-09-04 | 34.21% | +3.60 | 1.045 | $23.16 |
| 2025-09-03 | 49.12% | +4.31 | 0.847 | $22.82 |
| 2025-09-02 | 44.58% | +5.45 | 0.913 | $22.68 |
| 2025-08-29 | 45.55% | +1.74 | 0.867 | $22.57 |
| 2025-08-28 | 44.71% | +2.13 | 0.864 | $23.16 |
| 2025-08-27 | 45.43% | +2.94 | 0.856 | $22.73 |
| 2025-08-26 | 46.43% | +3.03 | 0.833 | $22.50 |
| 2025-08-25 | 46.27% | +3.68 | 0.828 | $22.56 |
| 2025-08-22 | 46.51% | +4.14 | 0.834 | $22.45 |
| 2025-08-21 | 47.70% | +4.72 | 0.830 | $21.82 |
| 2025-08-20 | 47.77% | +3.90 | 0.831 | $21.04 |
| 2025-08-19 | 46.60% | +3.40 | 0.832 | $21.34 |
| 2025-08-18 | 46.04% | +2.82 | 0.850 | $21.63 |
| 2025-08-15 | 45.33% | +3.28 | 0.849 | $21.16 |
| 2025-08-14 | 45.87% | +2.45 | 0.839 | $21.32 |
| 2025-08-13 | 47.50% | +3.90 | 0.831 | $21.56 |
| 2025-08-12 | 45.78% | +3.35 | 0.819 | $21.32 |
| 2025-08-11 | 44.32% | +3.20 | 0.876 | $20.59 |
| 2025-08-08 | 39.94% | +4.19 | 0.925 | $20.81 |
| 2025-08-07 | 44.64% | +5.58 | 0.854 | $20.40 |
| 2025-08-06 | 37.89% | +7.44 | 0.961 | $20.13 |
| 2025-08-05 | 39.27% | +2.33 | 0.939 | $19.87 |
| 2025-08-04 | 39.60% | +6.37 | 0.912 | $20.02 |
| 2025-08-01 | 35.86% | +2.18 | 1.042 | $19.81 |
| 2025-07-31 | 35.56% | +4.29 | 1.030 | $20.69 |
| 2025-07-30 | 36.98% | +3.72 | 0.958 | $20.89 |
| 2025-07-29 | 33.52% | +2.52 | 1.044 | $20.85 |
| 2025-07-28 | 30.64% | +2.73 | 1.149 | $20.88 |
| 2025-07-25 | 31.96% | +3.05 | 1.125 | $20.73 |
| 2025-07-24 | 31.66% | +2.94 | 1.127 | $20.51 |
| 2025-07-23 | 28.06% | +3.43 | 1.266 | $20.76 |
| 2025-07-22 | 31.23% | +1.81 | 1.146 | $20.41 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 338 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 86.57% | 75.76% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 87.14% | 74.36% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 87.83% | 74.51% | 87.55% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 88.74% | 73.89% | 89.34% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 89.89% | 72.44% | 88.56% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 91.09% | 73.39% | 90.32% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 88.47% | 76.78% | 91.76% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 88.92% | 76.95% | 93.16% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 92.47% | 77.64% | 95.02% |
| ATM | 90.01% | 75.74% | 96.48% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 94.00% | 79.09% | 87.71% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 92.37% | 80.30% | 90.76% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 93.18% | 83.87% | 89.18% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 93.66% | 82.01% | 90.33% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 94.50% | 83.49% | 90.97% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 102.09% | 84.09% | 92.03% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 99.92% | 86.19% | 98.87% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 103.51% | 91.35% | 98.70% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $47.94 | 90.01% | 94.50% | 89.89% | +4.62 | +2.18 | 19 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $48.03 | 75.74% | 83.49% | 72.44% | +11.05 | +2.23 | 29 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $47.59 | 96.48% | 90.97% | 88.56% | +2.41 | -6.71 | 31 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $48.00 | 80.56% | 91.56% | 79.27% | +12.28 | +4.86 | 20 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $47.80 | 77.71% | 84.86% | 79.00% | +5.86 | +4.22 | 18 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $47.97 | 76.68% | 80.27% | 75.73% | +4.54 | +1.32 | 23 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $47.65 | 79.34% | 79.83% | 74.64% | +5.19 | -2.10 | 14 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $48.00 | 71.36% | 75.08% | 69.70% | +5.37 | +1.03 | 27 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $47.77 | 66.92% | 70.00% | 69.28% | +0.72 | +2.72 | 17 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $48.55 | 68.75% | 72.19% | 68.39% | +3.80 | +1.54 | 16 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $48.47 | 66.27% | 69.65% | 65.89% | +3.76 | +1.50 | 11 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $48.44 | 66.67% | 69.98% | 65.91% | +4.07 | +1.28 | 20 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $48.68 | 67.84% | 66.44% | 65.24% | +1.19 | -2.00 | 15 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $47.94 | 90.01% | $48.10 | 19 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $48.03 | 75.74% | $48.41 | 29 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $47.59 | 96.48% | $48.64 | 31 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $48.00 | 80.56% | $49.04 | 20 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $47.80 | 77.71% | $49.04 | 18 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $47.97 | 76.68% | $49.47 | 23 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $47.65 | 79.34% | $49.50 | 14 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $48.00 | 71.36% | $50.26 | 27 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $47.77 | 66.92% | $50.83 | 17 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $48.55 | 68.75% | $52.78 | 16 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $48.47 | 66.27% | $54.40 | 11 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $48.44 | 66.67% | $55.35 | 20 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $48.68 | 67.84% | $59.22 | 15 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 78.04%
- 60 天
- 73.02%
- 90 天
- 67.97%
- 180 天
- 66.61%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 7 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 7 次中 1 次
- 14% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 10.7%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 136.3%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 收盘后 | 14.7% | +5.0% | 0.34× |
| 2026-06-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-09 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-15 | 收盘后 | 6.8% | +109.4% | 16.14× |
| 2025-09-03 | 收盘后 | 10.5% | +129.8% | 12.36× |
| 2025-06-03 | 收盘后 | 10.2% | +196.4% | 19.33× |
| 2025-03-06 | 收盘后 | 10.8% | +191.9% | 17.80× |
| 2024-12-05 | 收盘后 | 10.7% | +142.2% | 13.31× |
| 2024-09-04 | 收盘后 | 11.5% | +179.3% | 15.61× |
| 2024-06-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-28 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。