ETF · 期权分析
IBIT 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $41.68
- 30D ATM IV
- 38.85%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 33
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +4.22
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.026
▼ -0.42 pts 较前一交易日
概览
IBIT 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 38.8%,相当于未来一个月约 ±11.1% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 33% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 4.22 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 8% 的交易日差距比这更大。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 38.85%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +4.22
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.87
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.026
对应 30 天内约 ±11.1% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.4%。
高于过去一年中 33% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 4.22 个点。
高于过去一年中 92% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.87 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 3%。
高于过去一年中 10% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
32.6%63.8%
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 33%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 20%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 32%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 20%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $41.68
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $41.79
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 39.37%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 39.86%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 42.18%
- 使用的到期日数
- 22
- 总未平仓量
- 5,097,435
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.82
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 268 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 38.85% | +4.22 | 1.026 | $41.68 |
| 2026-11-09 | 39.27% | +4.19 | 1.017 | $42.32 |
| 2026-11-06 | 38.36% | +5.18 | 1.036 | $42.88 |
| 2026-11-05 | 40.05% | +5.75 | 1.027 | $43.03 |
| 2026-11-04 | 36.44% | +2.42 | 1.059 | $45.33 |
| 2026-11-03 | 39.14% | +4.25 | 1.019 | $44.05 |
| 2026-11-02 | 38.87% | +4.99 | 1.024 | $43.35 |
| 2026-10-30 | 39.50% | +6.37 | 1.010 | $43.36 |
| 2026-10-29 | 35.72% | +2.91 | 1.046 | $45.71 |
| 2026-10-28 | 36.43% | +2.76 | 1.039 | $46.14 |
| 2026-10-27 | 36.36% | +3.16 | 1.052 | $45.70 |
| 2026-10-26 | 37.64% | +3.37 | 1.035 | $45.22 |
| 2026-10-23 | 37.11% | +3.23 | 1.035 | $45.96 |
| 2026-10-22 | 38.20% | +3.26 | 1.023 | $46.06 |
| 2026-10-21 | 37.07% | +2.48 | 1.027 | $47.84 |
| 2026-10-20 | 36.89% | +3.18 | 1.043 | $46.71 |
| 2026-10-19 | 36.84% | +3.08 | 1.036 | $46.30 |
| 2026-10-16 | 37.62% | +3.46 | 1.034 | $46.15 |
| 2026-10-15 | 37.86% | +1.94 | 1.021 | $46.59 |
| 2026-10-14 | 38.25% | +2.51 | 1.022 | $46.24 |
| 2026-10-13 | 36.96% | +1.93 | 1.044 | $47.13 |
| 2026-10-09 | 35.83% | +1.63 | 1.066 | $46.55 |
| 2026-10-08 | 38.11% | +1.25 | 1.016 | $46.26 |
| 2026-10-07 | 37.13% | +0.48 | 1.046 | $47.21 |
| 2026-10-06 | 36.34% | +0.38 | 1.055 | $48.49 |
| 2026-10-05 | 36.27% | +0.37 | 1.066 | $48.56 |
| 2026-10-02 | 34.91% | +0.99 | 1.098 | $47.73 |
| 2026-10-01 | 36.40% | +0.75 | 1.070 | $47.96 |
| 2026-09-30 | 35.98% | +0.34 | 1.069 | $47.34 |
| 2026-09-29 | 36.35% | +0.05 | 1.068 | $47.33 |
| 2026-09-28 | 36.77% | +0.39 | 1.079 | $47.21 |
| 2026-09-25 | 35.84% | +0.03 | 1.108 | $47.57 |
| 2026-09-24 | 37.19% | -0.27 | 1.089 | $47.81 |
| 2026-09-23 | 38.01% | -1.05 | 1.074 | $47.88 |
| 2026-09-22 | 38.70% | -0.62 | 1.062 | $48.83 |
| 2026-09-21 | 39.83% | -1.60 | 1.057 | $49.01 |
| 2026-09-18 | 36.50% | -0.50 | 1.084 | $46.02 |
| 2026-09-17 | 32.82% | +1.69 | 1.144 | $43.30 |
| 2025-10-22 | 48.95% | +3.91 | 1.070 | $61.21 |
| 2025-10-21 | 46.41% | +1.43 | 1.111 | $63.49 |
| 2025-10-20 | 46.36% | +1.43 | 1.099 | $62.93 |
| 2025-10-17 | 49.74% | +5.00 | 1.059 | $60.47 |
| 2025-10-16 | 49.30% | +7.07 | 1.068 | $61.43 |
| 2025-10-15 | 46.39% | +3.69 | 1.090 | $63.17 |
| 2025-10-14 | 45.51% | +3.07 | 1.102 | $63.91 |
| 2025-10-10 | 44.61% | +2.85 | 1.122 | $66.20 |
| 2025-10-09 | 41.50% | -0.54 | 1.166 | $68.74 |
| 2025-10-08 | 42.12% | -2.01 | 1.162 | $70.06 |
| 2025-10-07 | 41.99% | -0.70 | 1.147 | $69.13 |
| 2025-10-06 | 42.80% | -1.88 | 1.144 | $71.29 |
| 2025-10-03 | 40.68% | +1.21 | 1.122 | $69.81 |
| 2025-10-02 | 37.97% | +2.06 | 1.196 | $68.77 |
| 2025-10-01 | 36.85% | +2.11 | 1.233 | $66.74 |
| 2025-09-30 | 37.14% | +3.23 | 1.196 | $65.00 |
| 2025-09-29 | 37.23% | +2.54 | 1.185 | $64.97 |
| 2025-09-26 | 37.87% | +4.04 | 1.155 | $61.94 |
| 2025-09-25 | 38.95% | +4.21 | 1.159 | $62.10 |
| 2025-09-24 | 36.11% | +3.21 | 1.173 | $64.42 |
| 2025-09-23 | 37.24% | +4.03 | 1.133 | $63.41 |
| 2025-09-22 | 37.95% | +3.77 | 1.131 | $63.65 |
| 2025-09-19 | 34.08% | +2.44 | 1.196 | $65.37 |
| 2025-09-18 | 33.79% | +1.35 | 1.195 | $66.75 |
| 2025-09-17 | 35.24% | +2.00 | 1.173 | $65.67 |
| 2025-09-16 | 36.55% | +2.06 | 1.138 | $66.37 |
| 2025-09-15 | 35.54% | +2.27 | 1.154 | $65.50 |
| 2025-09-12 | 35.80% | +1.26 | 1.147 | $66.38 |
| 2025-09-11 | 34.45% | +2.90 | 1.169 | $65.03 |
| 2025-09-10 | 35.29% | +3.45 | 1.152 | $64.53 |
| 2025-09-09 | 36.49% | +3.46 | 1.127 | $63.22 |
| 2025-09-08 | 36.92% | +3.44 | 1.116 | $63.70 |
| 2025-09-05 | 36.21% | +3.33 | 1.116 | $63.42 |
| 2025-09-04 | 37.44% | +3.89 | 1.096 | $62.35 |
| 2025-09-03 | 36.93% | +3.14 | 1.118 | $63.77 |
| 2025-09-02 | 37.46% | +3.66 | 1.111 | $62.97 |
| 2025-08-29 | 38.01% | +4.34 | 1.077 | $61.44 |
| 2025-08-28 | 36.80% | +3.31 | 1.114 | $63.58 |
| 2025-08-27 | 36.55% | +3.95 | 1.118 | $63.65 |
| 2025-08-26 | 38.03% | +3.73 | 1.087 | $63.10 |
| 2025-08-25 | 36.05% | +4.15 | 1.129 | $62.88 |
| 2025-08-22 | 33.69% | +1.34 | 1.172 | $66.25 |
| 2025-08-21 | 36.06% | +4.99 | 1.120 | $63.69 |
| 2025-08-20 | 34.25% | +5.31 | 1.161 | $64.90 |
| 2025-08-19 | 35.36% | +5.12 | 1.164 | $64.19 |
| 2025-08-18 | 34.88% | +4.34 | 1.175 | $66.05 |
| 2025-08-15 | 36.51% | +4.83 | 1.143 | $66.44 |
| 2025-08-14 | 38.00% | +3.94 | 1.151 | $67.03 |
| 2025-08-13 | 39.70% | +0.98 | 1.116 | $69.84 |
| 2025-08-12 | 36.44% | +1.58 | 1.170 | $67.95 |
| 2025-08-11 | 36.05% | +1.59 | 1.172 | $67.64 |
| 2025-08-08 | 32.70% | +2.12 | 1.254 | $66.13 |
| 2025-08-07 | 33.54% | +2.38 | 1.237 | $66.83 |
| 2025-08-06 | 32.61% | +2.96 | 1.253 | $65.51 |
| 2025-08-05 | 35.03% | +3.33 | 1.192 | $64.55 |
| 2025-08-04 | 36.18% | +2.68 | 1.193 | $65.20 |
| 2025-08-01 | 38.37% | +4.22 | 1.156 | $64.22 |
| 2025-07-31 | 35.48% | +1.37 | 1.175 | $66.32 |
| 2025-07-30 | 36.76% | +1.12 | 1.177 | $66.37 |
| 2025-07-29 | 36.49% | +1.35 | 1.183 | $66.71 |
| 2025-07-28 | 38.04% | +1.13 | 1.175 | $67.10 |
| 2025-07-25 | 40.55% | +0.37 | 1.134 | $66.36 |
| 2025-07-24 | 40.02% | +0.16 | 1.137 | $67.66 |
| 2025-07-23 | 40.11% | -0.44 | 1.130 | $67.29 |
| 2025-07-22 | 40.79% | -1.21 | 1.114 | $67.82 |
| 2025-07-21 | 40.49% | +0.28 | 1.116 | $66.33 |
| 2025-07-18 | 40.31% | +0.29 | 1.092 | $66.68 |
| 2025-07-17 | 39.81% | -0.21 | 1.099 | $67.65 |
| 2025-07-16 | 41.96% | +0.01 | 1.072 | $67.83 |
| 2025-07-15 | 41.36% | +1.31 | 1.059 | $66.16 |
| 2025-07-14 | 41.16% | +0.42 | 1.062 | $68.18 |
| 2025-07-11 | 40.13% | +0.01 | 1.101 | $67.21 |
| 2025-07-10 | 41.81% | -2.81 | 1.083 | $64.50 |
| 2025-07-09 | 40.34% | -2.29 | 1.093 | $63.58 |
| 2025-07-08 | 36.64% | +0.10 | 1.160 | $61.82 |
| 2025-07-07 | 38.02% | +0.03 | 1.135 | $61.40 |
| 2025-07-03 | 39.10% | +0.05 | 1.120 | $62.19 |
| 2025-07-02 | 40.13% | -0.15 | 1.107 | $62.42 |
| 2025-07-01 | 36.75% | +2.27 | 1.143 | $59.84 |
| 2025-06-30 | 37.15% | +0.75 | 1.129 | $61.21 |
| 2025-06-27 | 38.02% | +1.32 | 1.126 | $60.72 |
| 2025-06-26 | 37.54% | +0.66 | 1.136 | $61.14 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 268 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 268 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-11) · 2d (2026-11-12) · 3d (2026-11-13)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 2d | 3d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 41.73% | 43.14% | 40.64% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 40.06% | 41.08% | 39.70% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 39.84% | 40.82% | 39.43% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 39.96% | 40.47% | 39.34% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 40.34% | 40.30% | 39.50% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 40.75% | 40.37% | 39.74% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 41.05% | 40.54% | 40.09% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 41.25% | 40.73% | 40.51% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 41.42% | 40.93% | 40.90% |
| ATM | 41.59% | 41.17% | 41.29% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 41.81% | 41.48% | 41.71% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 42.14% | 41.91% | 42.20% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 42.63% | 42.50% | 42.75% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 43.30% | 43.19% | 43.35% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 44.19% | 43.97% | 44.07% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 45.61% | 45.05% | 45.28% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 48.07% | 46.91% | 47.28% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 52.77% | 50.94% | 50.70% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 59.38% | 59.41% | 59.81% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | 1 | $41.64 | 41.59% | 44.19% | 40.34% | +3.86 | +0.67 | 11 |
| 2026-11-12 | 2 | $41.65 | 41.17% | 43.97% | 40.30% | +3.68 | +0.96 | 17 |
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $41.66 | 41.29% | 44.07% | 39.50% | +4.57 | +0.50 | 21 |
| 2026-11-16 | 6 | $41.66 | 36.31% | 38.68% | 34.80% | +3.89 | +0.43 | 30 |
| 2026-11-17 | 7 | $41.67 | 36.66% | 39.65% | 35.25% | +4.40 | +0.79 | 28 |
| 2026-11-18 | 8 | $41.68 | 37.31% | 40.70% | 35.94% | +4.75 | +1.00 | 33 |
| 2026-11-19 | 9 | $41.68 | 38.07% | 41.80% | 36.63% | +5.16 | +1.15 | 34 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $41.69 | 38.83% | 42.54% | 37.18% | +5.37 | +1.03 | 42 |
| 2026-11-23 | 13 | $41.70 | 37.57% | 41.57% | 36.09% | +5.48 | +1.26 | 35 |
| 2026-11-24 | 14 | $41.70 | 37.43% | 41.48% | 36.11% | +5.38 | +1.37 | 27 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $41.73 | 37.42% | 41.47% | 36.34% | +5.13 | +1.49 | 39 |
| 2026-11-30 | 20 | $41.74 | 36.93% | 40.85% | 35.81% | +5.04 | +1.39 | 28 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $41.76 | 38.13% | 41.89% | 37.06% | +4.84 | +1.35 | 38 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $41.79 | 38.94% | 41.82% | 37.68% | +4.14 | +0.81 | 40 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $41.83 | 39.13% | 42.19% | 38.17% | +4.02 | +1.06 | 55 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $41.87 | 39.14% | 42.11% | 38.14% | +3.96 | +0.98 | 37 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $41.97 | 39.42% | 42.39% | 38.57% | +3.82 | +1.06 | 72 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $42.15 | 39.99% | 43.49% | 39.21% | +4.28 | +1.36 | 29 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $42.28 | 41.34% | 44.32% | 40.02% | +4.30 | +0.83 | 53 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $42.49 | 42.31% | 44.29% | 41.73% | +2.56 | +0.70 | 27 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $42.69 | 42.45% | 44.98% | 41.62% | +3.37 | +0.85 | 62 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $43.18 | 43.23% | 45.58% | 42.69% | +2.89 | +0.90 | 36 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
22 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | 1 天 | $41.64 | 41.59% | $41.64 | 11 |
| 2026-11-12 | 2 天 | $41.65 | 41.17% | $41.66 | 17 |
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $41.66 | 41.29% | $41.69 | 21 |
| 2026-11-16 | 6 天 | $41.66 | 36.31% | $41.71 | 30 |
| 2026-11-17 | 7 天 | $41.67 | 36.66% | $41.72 | 28 |
| 2026-11-18 | 8 天 | $41.68 | 37.31% | $41.74 | 33 |
| 2026-11-19 | 9 天 | $41.68 | 38.07% | $41.75 | 34 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $41.69 | 38.83% | $41.78 | 42 |
| 2026-11-23 | 13 天 | $41.70 | 37.57% | $41.81 | 35 |
| 2026-11-24 | 14 天 | $41.70 | 37.43% | $41.81 | 27 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $41.73 | 37.42% | $41.87 | 39 |
| 2026-11-30 | 20 天 | $41.74 | 36.93% | $41.90 | 28 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $41.76 | 38.13% | $41.96 | 38 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $41.79 | 38.94% | $42.06 | 40 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $41.83 | 39.13% | $42.17 | 55 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $41.87 | 39.14% | $42.26 | 37 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $41.97 | 39.42% | $42.57 | 72 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $42.15 | 39.99% | $43.09 | 29 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $42.28 | 41.34% | $43.58 | 53 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $42.49 | 42.31% | $44.54 | 27 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $42.69 | 42.45% | $45.06 | 62 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $43.18 | 43.23% | $46.76 | 36 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 38.85%
- 60 天
- 39.37%
- 90 天
- 39.86%
- 180 天
- 42.18%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 268 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。