股票 · 期权分析
IREN 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $19.73
- 30D ATM IV
- 117.00%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 90
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +11.50
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.930
▲ +3.72 pts 较前一交易日
概览
IREN 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 117.0%,相当于未来一个月约 ±33.5% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 244 个交易日中 90% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 11.50 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 5% 的交易日差距比这更大。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 7%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-17(根据其财报周期估算)。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 117.00%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +11.50
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +2.87
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.930
对应 30 天内约 ±33.5% 的波动，平常一天约 ±7.4%。
高于过去一年中 90% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 11.50 个点。
高于过去一年中 95% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 2.87 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 7%。
高于过去一年中 31% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 244 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 90%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 61%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 79%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 52%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $19.73
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $19.47
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 110.33%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 108.79%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 105.71%
- 使用的到期日数
- 15
- 总未平仓量
- 3,116,010
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.68
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 303 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 117.00% | +11.50 | 0.930 | $19.73 |
| 2026-11-09 | 113.28% | +12.74 | 0.929 | $21.41 |
| 2026-11-06 | 115.67% | +16.14 | 0.938 | $21.64 |
| 2026-11-05 | 141.67% | +23.57 | 0.850 | $18.03 |
| 2026-11-04 | 124.74% | +6.99 | 0.870 | $21.71 |
| 2026-11-03 | 126.67% | +10.59 | 0.850 | $24.46 |
| 2026-11-02 | 131.27% | +13.16 | 0.841 | $22.02 |
| 2026-10-30 | 118.71% | +10.04 | 0.886 | $23.95 |
| 2026-10-29 | 109.57% | +1.65 | 0.894 | $26.25 |
| 2026-10-28 | 107.97% | +2.07 | 0.922 | $28.84 |
| 2026-10-27 | 108.62% | +0.97 | 0.910 | $27.44 |
| 2026-10-26 | 111.80% | +3.12 | 0.904 | $25.43 |
| 2026-10-23 | 112.01% | +6.32 | 0.900 | $24.91 |
| 2026-10-22 | 115.97% | +7.22 | 0.889 | $25.51 |
| 2026-10-21 | 109.00% | +5.26 | 0.901 | $27.84 |
| 2026-10-20 | 109.51% | +8.55 | 0.893 | $26.62 |
| 2026-10-19 | 105.72% | +8.87 | 0.911 | $27.73 |
| 2026-10-16 | 109.72% | +11.14 | 0.892 | $26.99 |
| 2026-10-15 | 103.50% | +8.43 | 0.919 | $30.39 |
| 2026-10-14 | 100.05% | +3.76 | 0.924 | $30.56 |
| 2026-10-13 | 84.59% | -2.54 | 0.967 | $34.80 |
| 2026-10-09 | 75.54% | -1.68 | 1.029 | $35.19 |
| 2026-10-08 | 77.35% | -2.89 | 1.008 | $35.71 |
| 2026-10-07 | 75.98% | -5.99 | 1.036 | $38.69 |
| 2026-10-06 | 76.65% | -4.59 | 1.027 | $41.28 |
| 2026-10-05 | 74.92% | -5.74 | 1.028 | $40.48 |
| 2026-10-02 | 73.19% | -2.68 | 1.085 | $41.76 |
| 2026-10-01 | 74.02% | -3.73 | 1.092 | $40.65 |
| 2026-09-30 | 74.94% | -3.78 | 1.076 | $40.88 |
| 2026-09-29 | 74.86% | -3.70 | 1.109 | $41.38 |
| 2026-09-28 | 75.96% | -3.65 | 1.089 | $41.72 |
| 2026-09-25 | 74.11% | -4.47 | 1.125 | $44.13 |
| 2026-09-24 | 77.20% | -2.78 | 1.103 | $46.15 |
| 2026-09-23 | 79.27% | -1.80 | 1.096 | $47.05 |
| 2026-09-22 | 80.66% | -2.86 | 1.099 | $48.55 |
| 2026-09-21 | 82.54% | -1.50 | 1.084 | $47.23 |
| 2026-09-18 | 81.84% | -2.23 | 1.084 | $46.68 |
| 2026-09-17 | 79.67% | -2.34 | 1.094 | $43.48 |
| 2025-10-22 | 134.30% | +0.42 | — | $51.83 |
| 2025-10-21 | 127.55% | +0.33 | — | $55.20 |
| 2025-10-20 | 126.83% | -0.17 | — | $59.22 |
| 2025-10-17 | 130.72% | -1.92 | — | $60.72 |
| 2025-10-16 | 144.43% | -0.86 | — | $61.83 |
| 2025-10-15 | 137.29% | +1.69 | — | $67.98 |
| 2025-10-14 | 135.03% | -7.71 | — | $69.56 |
| 2025-10-10 | 138.06% | -13.00 | — | $59.77 |
| 2025-10-09 | 120.63% | -6.85 | — | $63.85 |
| 2025-10-08 | 126.01% | -12.78 | — | $60.09 |
| 2025-10-07 | — | — | — | $61.68 |
| 2025-10-06 | — | — | — | $57.75 |
| 2025-10-03 | 108.71% | -5.48 | — | $50.46 |
| 2025-10-02 | 104.08% | -8.06 | — | $47.02 |
| 2025-10-01 | 106.21% | -12.22 | — | $47.08 |
| 2025-09-30 | 95.82% | -12.51 | — | $46.93 |
| 2025-09-29 | 117.71% | -11.63 | — | $45.93 |
| 2025-09-26 | 115.41% | -11.76 | — | $41.86 |
| 2025-09-25 | 122.40% | -19.41 | — | $46.29 |
| 2025-09-24 | — | — | — | $47.14 |
| 2025-09-23 | 112.47% | -13.68 | — | $41.77 |
| 2025-09-22 | — | — | — | $41.90 |
| 2025-09-19 | 105.14% | -11.27 | — | $38.64 |
| 2025-09-18 | 100.60% | -12.37 | — | $36.32 |
| 2025-09-17 | 100.80% | -6.31 | — | $37.90 |
| 2025-09-16 | 99.01% | -4.18 | — | $36.45 |
| 2025-09-15 | 107.78% | -7.87 | — | $37.14 |
| 2025-09-12 | 94.12% | -5.68 | — | $33.96 |
| 2025-09-11 | 94.05% | -6.36 | — | $32.85 |
| 2025-09-10 | 104.54% | +2.25 | — | $33.63 |
| 2025-09-09 | 91.76% | -9.37 | — | $30.19 |
| 2025-09-08 | 89.50% | -6.10 | 1.009 | $26.19 |
| 2025-09-05 | 93.52% | -2.43 | 0.977 | $26.15 |
| 2025-09-04 | 90.11% | -0.58 | 1.008 | $26.13 |
| 2025-09-03 | 92.95% | +6.05 | — | $28.21 |
| 2025-09-02 | 96.11% | -3.32 | — | $29.11 |
| 2025-08-29 | 94.01% | -0.93 | — | $26.48 |
| 2025-08-28 | 107.45% | -2.59 | — | $23.04 |
| 2025-08-27 | 111.29% | -5.35 | 0.904 | $22.36 |
| 2025-08-26 | 111.03% | -8.02 | — | $22.99 |
| 2025-08-25 | 111.73% | -3.97 | — | $23.12 |
| 2025-08-22 | 108.69% | +0.04 | 0.939 | $21.43 |
| 2025-08-21 | 111.22% | -0.05 | 0.901 | $19.59 |
| 2025-08-20 | 114.21% | -2.72 | 0.897 | $19.76 |
| 2025-08-19 | 109.66% | -0.60 | 0.923 | $18.73 |
| 2025-08-18 | 110.39% | -2.23 | 0.928 | $20.71 |
| 2025-08-15 | 107.27% | -5.13 | 0.939 | $19.69 |
| 2025-08-14 | 114.18% | +4.02 | 0.867 | $19.08 |
| 2025-08-13 | 99.35% | -8.99 | 0.950 | $17.73 |
| 2025-08-12 | 94.30% | -4.33 | 0.948 | $17.83 |
| 2025-08-11 | 97.93% | +4.36 | 0.909 | $17.97 |
| 2025-08-08 | 90.16% | +0.63 | 0.997 | $18.45 |
| 2025-08-07 | 102.21% | -7.99 | 0.899 | $18.57 |
| 2025-08-06 | 94.61% | +5.60 | 1.013 | $18.32 |
| 2025-08-05 | 95.30% | -9.18 | 0.916 | $16.45 |
| 2025-08-04 | 94.85% | -3.08 | 0.933 | $16.48 |
| 2025-08-01 | 100.15% | -2.98 | 0.904 | $15.40 |
| 2025-07-31 | 100.76% | -9.06 | 0.929 | $16.11 |
| 2025-07-30 | 97.60% | -6.87 | 0.940 | $16.14 |
| 2025-07-29 | 109.67% | -9.38 | 0.845 | $15.79 |
| 2025-07-28 | 98.45% | -9.42 | 0.949 | $16.58 |
| 2025-07-25 | 100.75% | -10.82 | 0.956 | $17.72 |
| 2025-07-24 | 102.75% | -8.62 | 0.949 | $18.14 |
| 2025-07-23 | 104.26% | -7.03 | 0.950 | $18.99 |
| 2025-07-22 | 108.07% | -6.12 | 0.958 | $18.59 |
| 2025-07-21 | 102.16% | -11.92 | 0.961 | $18.15 |
| 2025-07-18 | 93.81% | -4.59 | 0.991 | $17.94 |
| 2025-07-17 | 95.67% | -7.29 | 0.980 | $18.05 |
| 2025-07-16 | 93.94% | -7.69 | 1.030 | $17.31 |
| 2025-07-15 | 96.45% | -7.44 | 0.976 | $16.88 |
| 2025-07-14 | 100.47% | -7.22 | 0.949 | $17.28 |
| 2025-07-11 | 95.11% | -5.34 | 1.001 | $16.23 |
| 2025-07-10 | 105.15% | -9.74 | 0.876 | $17.03 |
| 2025-07-09 | 94.27% | -5.11 | 0.997 | $16.96 |
| 2025-07-08 | 100.64% | -1.71 | 0.982 | $16.89 |
| 2025-07-07 | 107.39% | -6.97 | 0.931 | $16.95 |
| 2025-07-03 | 99.33% | -11.73 | 0.961 | $16.82 |
| 2025-07-02 | 97.46% | -8.84 | 1.019 | $15.66 |
| 2025-07-01 | 98.48% | -8.90 | 0.999 | $15.23 |
| 2025-06-30 | 99.39% | -4.58 | 0.983 | $14.57 |
| 2025-06-27 | 95.54% | -7.05 | 1.011 | $14.00 |
| 2025-06-26 | 98.22% | -15.07 | 0.966 | $13.11 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 303 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 303 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 178.53% | 154.34% | 134.84% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 161.81% | 142.58% | 124.31% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 158.10% | 136.37% | 122.09% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 157.05% | 135.16% | 120.63% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 157.71% | 134.73% | 119.94% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 156.44% | 134.45% | 120.02% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 155.95% | 134.65% | 120.06% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 156.33% | 134.51% | 120.25% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 157.83% | 135.59% | 120.86% |
| ATM | 158.75% | 136.34% | 121.74% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 159.15% | 137.23% | 122.78% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 159.59% | 137.84% | 123.97% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 161.06% | 140.65% | 125.62% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 163.98% | 142.78% | 128.30% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 166.10% | 145.57% | 130.78% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 168.54% | 149.35% | 134.34% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 172.98% | 154.42% | 139.02% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 179.95% | 160.93% | 146.67% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 197.96% | 175.26% | 159.98% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $19.40 | 158.75% | 166.10% | 157.71% | +8.39 | +3.15 | 53 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $19.43 | 136.34% | 145.57% | 134.73% | +10.84 | +3.81 | 67 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $19.43 | 121.74% | 130.78% | 119.94% | +10.84 | +3.62 | 61 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $19.45 | 118.93% | 127.79% | 116.15% | +11.65 | +3.04 | 43 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $19.47 | 116.75% | 125.35% | 113.86% | +11.48 | +2.85 | 45 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $19.48 | 116.39% | 124.49% | 113.53% | +10.96 | +2.62 | 64 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $19.50 | 114.17% | 122.02% | 111.33% | +10.69 | +2.51 | 27 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $19.55 | 109.35% | 116.75% | 106.59% | +10.16 | +2.32 | 56 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $19.62 | 108.63% | 115.97% | 108.42% | +7.55 | +3.56 | 40 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $19.72 | 106.81% | 114.64% | 105.87% | +8.77 | +3.44 | 41 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $19.80 | 105.82% | 112.34% | 103.81% | +8.52 | +2.26 | 42 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $19.69 | 105.66% | 108.19% | 104.82% | +3.37 | +0.85 | 42 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $19.87 | 103.31% | 106.78% | 101.69% | +5.09 | +0.93 | 38 |
| 2027-07-16 | 248 | $20.05 | 102.10% | 106.30% | 100.84% | +5.46 | +1.46 | 30 |
| 2027-08-20 | 283 | $20.08 | 100.92% | 106.49% | 98.43% | +8.06 | +1.54 | 22 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
15 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $19.40 | 158.75% | $19.61 | 53 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $19.43 | 136.34% | $19.94 | 67 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $19.43 | 121.74% | $20.12 | 61 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $19.45 | 118.93% | $20.38 | 43 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $19.47 | 116.75% | $20.63 | 45 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $19.48 | 116.39% | $20.90 | 64 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $19.50 | 114.17% | $21.09 | 27 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $19.55 | 109.35% | $21.78 | 56 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $19.62 | 108.63% | $23.10 | 40 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $19.72 | 106.81% | $24.13 | 41 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $19.80 | 105.82% | $25.19 | 42 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $19.69 | 105.66% | $26.41 | 42 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $19.87 | 103.31% | $27.37 | 38 |
| 2027-07-16 | 248 天 | $20.05 | 102.10% | $28.57 | 30 |
| 2027-08-20 | 283 天 | $20.08 | 100.92% | $29.80 | 22 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 117.00%
- 60 天
- 110.33%
- 90 天
- 108.79%
- 180 天
- 105.71%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 303 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 2 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 2 次中 0 次
- 0% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 18.1%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 54.4%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2026-11-05 | 收盘后 | 19.7% | +20.0% | 1.02× |
| 2026-08-27 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-20 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-11 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-08 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-28 | 收盘后 | 16.4% | +88.7% | 5.41× |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。