股票 · 期权分析
JNJ 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $280.78
- 30D ATM IV
- 25.88%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 90
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +1.14
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.014
▼ -0.26 pts 较前一交易日
概览
JNJ 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 25.9%,相当于未来一个月约 ±7.4% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 249 个交易日中 90% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 1.14 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-13(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 7 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±3.1% 的波动,JNJ 实际平均波动 1.9%,7 次中有 6 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 25.88%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +1.14
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- -0.14
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.014
对应 30 天内约 ±7.4% 的波动，平常一天约 ±1.6%。
高于过去一年中 90% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 1.14 个点。
高于过去一年中 20% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值低 0.14 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 1%。
高于过去一年中 52% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 249 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 90%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 59%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 92%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 59%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $280.78
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $280.27
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 25.81%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 26.25%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 26.49%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 258,550
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.64
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 348 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 25.88% | +1.14 | 1.014 | $280.78 |
| 2026-11-09 | 26.14% | +0.83 | 0.998 | $282.11 |
| 2026-11-06 | 26.55% | +0.90 | 0.988 | $276.22 |
| 2026-11-05 | 27.49% | +2.13 | 0.948 | $272.32 |
| 2026-11-04 | 25.87% | +1.19 | 0.987 | $276.32 |
| 2026-11-03 | 26.23% | +0.84 | 0.994 | $266.17 |
| 2026-11-02 | 26.30% | +1.47 | 0.989 | $270.56 |
| 2026-10-30 | 25.55% | +1.09 | 0.997 | $273.20 |
| 2026-10-29 | 24.02% | +1.74 | 1.019 | $275.20 |
| 2026-10-28 | 25.32% | +1.63 | 0.996 | $271.04 |
| 2026-10-27 | 25.12% | +0.81 | 0.980 | $268.73 |
| 2026-10-26 | 26.02% | +1.31 | 0.944 | $266.30 |
| 2026-10-23 | 24.95% | +1.18 | 0.975 | $263.81 |
| 2026-10-22 | 25.95% | +0.40 | 0.950 | $267.61 |
| 2026-10-21 | 23.76% | +0.99 | 0.988 | $257.78 |
| 2026-10-20 | 24.20% | +1.58 | 0.989 | $259.36 |
| 2026-10-19 | 23.35% | +0.68 | 0.997 | $253.79 |
| 2026-10-16 | 24.07% | +1.63 | 0.997 | $255.56 |
| 2026-10-15 | 23.34% | +0.79 | 1.005 | $253.28 |
| 2026-10-14 | 23.28% | +0.56 | 0.996 | $253.91 |
| 2026-10-13 | 24.69% | +0.45 | 0.966 | $248.61 |
| 2026-10-09 | 25.24% | +0.77 | 0.973 | $261.44 |
| 2026-10-08 | 26.10% | +1.28 | 0.956 | $256.48 |
| 2026-10-07 | 25.62% | +0.72 | 0.958 | $258.45 |
| 2026-10-06 | 25.53% | +1.02 | 0.963 | $254.78 |
| 2026-10-05 | 26.24% | +1.08 | 0.940 | $252.93 |
| 2026-10-02 | 25.39% | +0.99 | 0.982 | $256.03 |
| 2026-10-01 | 26.32% | +1.18 | 0.967 | $258.66 |
| 2026-09-30 | 26.31% | +0.81 | 0.952 | $264.74 |
| 2026-09-29 | 27.34% | +0.40 | 0.922 | $267.57 |
| 2026-09-28 | 26.82% | +0.59 | 0.951 | $271.95 |
| 2026-09-25 | 26.08% | +1.28 | 0.960 | $271.22 |
| 2026-09-24 | 27.32% | +0.67 | 0.935 | $270.68 |
| 2026-09-23 | 25.84% | +0.61 | 0.975 | $269.17 |
| 2026-09-22 | 26.83% | +0.45 | 0.925 | $269.19 |
| 2026-09-21 | 27.06% | +0.94 | 0.928 | $269.47 |
| 2026-09-18 | 25.91% | +1.37 | 0.969 | $269.99 |
| 2026-09-17 | 25.90% | +0.88 | 0.971 | $270.22 |
| 2026-09-16 | 26.38% | +0.95 | 0.975 | $267.28 |
| 2026-09-15 | 24.90% | +0.33 | 1.049 | $267.20 |
| 2026-09-14 | 24.88% | +0.70 | 0.993 | $266.32 |
| 2026-09-11 | 22.71% | +0.15 | 1.095 | $265.58 |
| 2026-09-10 | 23.08% | +1.50 | 1.117 | $266.35 |
| 2026-09-09 | 23.00% | +0.01 | 1.118 | $267.08 |
| 2026-09-08 | 23.43% | +0.02 | 1.103 | $269.12 |
| 2026-09-04 | — | — | — | $275.23 |
| 2026-09-03 | 21.92% | -0.33 | 1.155 | $278.43 |
| 2026-09-02 | 24.99% | -0.01 | 1.018 | $275.21 |
| 2026-09-01 | 21.73% | +1.64 | 1.138 | $271.19 |
| 2026-08-31 | 22.30% | -0.03 | 1.115 | $265.85 |
| 2026-08-28 | 22.13% | +0.85 | 1.117 | $268.04 |
| 2026-08-27 | 23.19% | +0.68 | 1.067 | $265.77 |
| 2026-08-26 | 22.00% | +0.55 | 1.132 | $270.00 |
| 2026-08-25 | 21.88% | -0.15 | 1.131 | $273.14 |
| 2026-08-24 | 21.95% | +0.09 | 1.118 | $273.04 |
| 2026-08-21 | 22.00% | +0.35 | 1.092 | $270.24 |
| 2026-08-20 | 21.88% | +0.65 | 1.125 | $267.37 |
| 2026-08-19 | 23.30% | +1.30 | 1.083 | $273.41 |
| 2026-08-18 | 22.32% | +0.12 | 1.131 | $271.11 |
| 2026-08-17 | 23.68% | -0.23 | 1.085 | $262.37 |
| 2025-10-22 | 15.86% | +1.40 | 1.080 | $192.94 |
| 2025-10-21 | 15.60% | +1.61 | 1.049 | $191.88 |
| 2025-10-20 | 16.03% | +1.74 | 1.033 | $193.72 |
| 2025-10-17 | 17.68% | +0.70 | 0.943 | $193.22 |
| 2025-10-16 | 17.67% | +2.12 | 1.051 | $192.12 |
| 2025-10-15 | 19.18% | +1.71 | 0.965 | $191.17 |
| 2025-10-14 | 19.17% | +1.97 | 0.966 | $190.85 |
| 2025-10-10 | 21.12% | +2.28 | 0.910 | $190.72 |
| 2025-10-09 | 20.37% | +2.14 | 0.931 | $191.08 |
| 2025-10-08 | 20.23% | +3.99 | 0.955 | $189.69 |
| 2025-10-07 | 20.23% | +3.32 | 0.937 | $188.89 |
| 2025-10-06 | 20.86% | +2.44 | 0.920 | $188.16 |
| 2025-10-03 | 19.82% | +2.48 | 0.944 | $188.64 |
| 2025-10-02 | 19.98% | +2.10 | 0.935 | $185.98 |
| 2025-10-01 | 19.52% | +2.41 | 0.925 | $186.05 |
| 2025-09-30 | 18.88% | +1.80 | 0.936 | $185.42 |
| 2025-09-29 | 18.87% | +2.36 | 0.946 | $181.62 |
| 2025-09-26 | 18.81% | +2.38 | 0.958 | $179.71 |
| 2025-09-25 | 18.90% | +2.66 | 0.954 | $177.73 |
| 2025-09-24 | 18.52% | +3.36 | 0.966 | $176.69 |
| 2025-09-23 | 18.88% | +2.76 | 0.936 | $176.58 |
| 2025-09-22 | 19.08% | +2.64 | 0.950 | $174.21 |
| 2025-09-19 | — | — | — | $176.19 |
| 2025-09-18 | 18.34% | +2.07 | 0.942 | $174.16 |
| 2025-09-17 | 17.99% | +2.90 | 0.945 | $177.20 |
| 2025-09-16 | 17.90% | +2.62 | 0.968 | $176.46 |
| 2025-09-15 | 17.79% | +1.91 | 0.978 | $177.40 |
| 2025-09-12 | 17.31% | +2.21 | 0.978 | $178.06 |
| 2025-09-11 | 17.31% | +2.16 | 0.977 | $178.50 |
| 2025-09-10 | 17.16% | +2.34 | 0.990 | $175.79 |
| 2025-09-09 | 17.06% | +1.83 | 0.996 | $176.96 |
| 2025-09-08 | 17.15% | +2.32 | 0.997 | $178.13 |
| 2025-09-05 | 16.42% | +2.23 | 1.042 | $178.43 |
| 2025-09-04 | 15.74% | +2.23 | 1.076 | $178.76 |
| 2025-09-03 | 16.00% | +2.39 | 1.041 | $178.00 |
| 2025-09-02 | 16.25% | +2.55 | 1.016 | $178.06 |
| 2025-08-29 | 14.89% | +1.94 | 1.101 | $177.17 |
| 2025-08-28 | 15.22% | +2.37 | 1.081 | $175.45 |
| 2025-08-27 | 15.37% | +2.44 | 1.068 | $176.79 |
| 2025-08-26 | 15.74% | +2.41 | 1.064 | $176.49 |
| 2025-08-25 | 15.43% | +2.18 | 1.051 | $178.41 |
| 2025-08-22 | 14.30% | +1.98 | 1.111 | $179.29 |
| 2025-08-21 | 15.36% | +2.26 | 1.088 | $178.93 |
| 2025-08-20 | 14.58% | +2.23 | 1.145 | $178.84 |
| 2025-08-19 | 14.67% | +2.20 | 1.104 | $177.80 |
| 2025-08-18 | 14.33% | +2.11 | 1.102 | $176.25 |
| 2025-08-15 | 15.72% | +2.36 | 1.012 | $176.64 |
| 2025-08-14 | 14.91% | +2.22 | 1.077 | $174.72 |
| 2025-08-13 | 14.18% | +2.07 | 1.141 | $174.42 |
| 2025-08-12 | 15.71% | +2.59 | 1.033 | $172.78 |
| 2025-08-11 | 15.65% | +1.66 | 1.033 | $173.82 |
| 2025-08-08 | 14.39% | +2.10 | 1.117 | $173.33 |
| 2025-08-07 | 15.37% | +3.20 | 1.062 | $171.53 |
| 2025-08-06 | 16.16% | +3.34 | 1.055 | $170.59 |
| 2025-08-05 | 16.44% | +2.82 | 1.001 | $170.74 |
| 2025-08-04 | 15.07% | +2.32 | 1.090 | $171.04 |
| 2025-08-01 | 16.25% | +2.90 | 1.085 | $167.33 |
| 2025-07-31 | 16.52% | +2.39 | 1.040 | $164.74 |
| 2025-07-30 | 15.06% | +2.68 | 1.095 | $167.26 |
| 2025-07-29 | 15.28% | +2.16 | 1.074 | $168.11 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 348 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Δ 看涨 | — | 25.99% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 28.84% | 25.61% | 23.85% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 28.80% | 26.07% | 24.47% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 29.29% | 26.51% | 24.73% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 29.81% | 26.63% | 25.03% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 29.66% | 26.75% | 25.13% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 29.28% | 26.94% | 25.29% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 29.23% | 27.34% | 25.33% |
| ATM | 29.64% | 27.45% | 25.98% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 30.13% | 27.35% | 26.82% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 30.31% | 27.36% | 26.92% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 30.43% | 27.43% | 26.48% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 30.64% | 27.62% | 26.77% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 31.15% | 27.49% | 26.54% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 31.73% | 27.66% | 27.15% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 32.31% | 28.66% | 27.36% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 33.05% | 29.53% | 29.16% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 34.54% | 31.88% | 30.96% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $281.11 | 29.64% | 31.15% | 29.29% | +1.86 | +0.57 | 12 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $281.50 | 27.45% | 27.49% | 26.51% | +0.98 | -0.45 | 20 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $280.85 | 25.98% | 26.54% | 24.73% | +1.81 | -0.35 | 20 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $280.70 | 26.01% | 26.71% | 25.00% | +1.71 | -0.15 | 10 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $280.20 | 25.87% | 26.26% | 25.20% | +1.06 | -0.14 | 13 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $280.93 | 25.70% | 26.82% | 25.05% | +1.77 | +0.23 | 12 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $280.55 | 25.74% | 25.70% | 25.25% | +0.45 | -0.27 | 12 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $281.86 | 25.83% | 26.58% | 25.12% | +1.47 | +0.02 | 15 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $282.89 | 26.59% | 27.69% | 25.78% | +1.91 | +0.15 | 18 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $283.00 | 26.83% | 27.84% | 26.03% | +1.82 | +0.11 | 17 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $284.72 | 26.08% | 27.34% | 25.99% | +1.35 | +0.59 | 27 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $286.47 | 26.56% | 27.52% | 25.76% | +1.76 | +0.08 | 29 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $281.11 | 29.64% | $281.21 | 12 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $281.50 | 27.45% | $281.79 | 20 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $280.85 | 25.98% | $281.29 | 20 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $280.70 | 26.01% | $281.33 | 10 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $280.20 | 25.87% | $281.00 | 13 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $280.93 | 25.70% | $281.90 | 12 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $280.55 | 25.74% | $281.68 | 12 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $281.86 | 25.83% | $283.57 | 15 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $282.89 | 26.59% | $286.45 | 18 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $283.00 | 26.83% | $287.42 | 17 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $284.72 | 26.08% | $290.59 | 27 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $286.47 | 26.56% | $295.21 | 29 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 25.88%
- 60 天
- 25.81%
- 90 天
- 26.25%
- 180 天
- 26.49%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 7 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 7 次中 6 次
- 86% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 3.1%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 1.9%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | 未说明时间 | 1.6% | +0.9% | 0.55× |
| 2026-10-13 | 开盘前 | 3.0% | +2.1% | 0.71× |
| 2026-07-15 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-21 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-14 | 开盘前 | 4.2% | +0.1% | 0.02× |
| 2025-07-16 | 开盘前 | 3.2% | +6.2% | 1.97× |
| 2025-04-15 | 开盘前 | 3.3% | -0.5% | 0.15× |
| 2025-01-22 | 开盘前 | 3.0% | -1.9% | 0.64× |
| 2024-10-15 | 开盘前 | 3.4% | +1.6% | 0.48× |
| 2024-07-17 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-01 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-16 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-23 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-17 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-30 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。