股票 · 期权分析
KKR 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $100.85
- 30D ATM IV
- 37.86%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 55
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +3.37
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.995
▼ -1.04 pts 较前一交易日
概览
KKR 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 37.9%,相当于未来一个月约 ±10.9% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 239 个交易日中 55% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 3.37 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-08(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 7 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±6.2% 的波动,KKR 实际平均波动 3.0%,7 次中有 6 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 37.86%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +3.37
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +1.37
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.995
对应 30 天内约 ±10.9% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.4%。
高于过去一年中 55% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 3.37 个点。
高于过去一年中 37% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 1.37 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
高于过去一年中 56% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 239 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 55%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 17%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 66%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 22%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $100.85
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $100.74
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 37.05%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 37.67%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 39.19%
- 使用的到期日数
- 10
- 总未平仓量
- 172,992
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 2.65
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 338 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 37.86% | +3.37 | 0.995 | $100.85 |
| 2026-11-09 | 38.90% | +5.47 | 0.989 | $98.09 |
| 2026-11-06 | 42.17% | +4.99 | 0.943 | $96.48 |
| 2026-11-05 | — | — | — | $98.30 |
| 2026-11-04 | 40.50% | +2.67 | 0.938 | $101.34 |
| 2026-11-03 | 43.15% | +2.49 | 0.907 | $95.99 |
| 2026-11-02 | 42.11% | +1.92 | 0.929 | $98.01 |
| 2026-10-30 | 43.35% | +4.06 | 0.906 | $94.39 |
| 2026-10-29 | 41.04% | +1.28 | 0.927 | $95.82 |
| 2026-10-28 | 42.77% | +2.88 | 0.910 | $93.04 |
| 2026-10-27 | 41.87% | +3.72 | 0.923 | $91.92 |
| 2026-10-26 | 43.16% | +2.86 | 0.905 | $91.62 |
| 2026-10-23 | 43.59% | +4.35 | 0.938 | $91.34 |
| 2026-10-22 | 43.11% | +2.21 | 0.932 | $93.09 |
| 2026-10-21 | 43.26% | -0.43 | 0.913 | $89.87 |
| 2026-10-20 | 42.74% | +4.29 | 0.926 | $89.21 |
| 2026-10-19 | 43.16% | +3.95 | 0.928 | $87.00 |
| 2026-10-16 | 44.19% | +2.83 | 0.915 | $86.21 |
| 2026-10-15 | 43.53% | +4.48 | 0.932 | $87.63 |
| 2026-10-14 | 42.81% | +4.20 | 0.964 | $85.60 |
| 2026-10-13 | 41.32% | +2.56 | 0.953 | $87.16 |
| 2026-10-09 | 39.94% | +1.81 | 0.978 | $90.95 |
| 2026-10-08 | 39.45% | +1.66 | 0.986 | $89.56 |
| 2026-10-07 | 38.98% | +3.00 | 0.989 | $89.67 |
| 2026-10-06 | 39.04% | +2.01 | 0.994 | $90.67 |
| 2026-10-05 | 40.10% | +2.79 | 0.978 | $89.96 |
| 2026-10-02 | 40.80% | +4.80 | 0.983 | $90.29 |
| 2026-10-01 | 41.63% | +3.61 | 0.965 | $91.24 |
| 2026-09-30 | 40.73% | +3.50 | 0.958 | $91.30 |
| 2026-09-29 | 40.19% | +3.17 | 0.981 | $93.18 |
| 2026-09-28 | 39.79% | +2.17 | 0.993 | $93.24 |
| 2026-09-25 | 38.50% | +2.66 | 1.024 | $96.67 |
| 2026-09-24 | 39.20% | +4.55 | 1.002 | $95.64 |
| 2026-09-23 | 38.29% | +0.72 | 1.003 | $97.21 |
| 2026-09-22 | 38.65% | +0.84 | 0.993 | $98.44 |
| 2026-09-21 | 38.64% | +3.11 | 0.991 | $100.83 |
| 2026-09-18 | 36.81% | +2.19 | 1.060 | $98.81 |
| 2026-09-17 | 37.75% | +1.99 | 1.044 | $98.19 |
| 2026-09-16 | 38.97% | +3.02 | 1.008 | $96.84 |
| 2026-09-15 | — | — | — | $100.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | 38.75% | +2.30 | 1.029 | $102.27 |
| 2026-09-11 | 38.33% | +4.13 | 1.039 | $101.08 |
| 2026-09-10 | 39.09% | +2.16 | 1.000 | $100.87 |
| 2026-09-09 | 39.31% | +2.23 | 1.043 | $104.09 |
| 2026-09-08 | 39.02% | +0.61 | 1.024 | $105.73 |
| 2026-09-04 | 36.48% | -0.30 | 1.042 | $107.73 |
| 2026-09-03 | 38.03% | +3.17 | 1.008 | $109.76 |
| 2026-09-02 | — | — | — | $106.43 |
| 2026-09-01 | 36.78% | +1.59 | 1.037 | $106.41 |
| 2026-08-31 | 38.04% | +0.56 | 1.009 | $109.72 |
| 2026-08-28 | — | — | — | $108.68 |
| 2026-08-27 | 36.48% | +1.12 | 1.064 | $109.32 |
| 2026-08-26 | 36.99% | +5.52 | 1.056 | $108.50 |
| 2026-08-25 | 36.47% | +2.24 | 1.077 | $107.58 |
| 2026-08-24 | 37.63% | -0.63 | 1.037 | $107.32 |
| 2025-10-22 | 46.26% | +5.79 | 0.861 | $123.30 |
| 2025-10-21 | — | — | — | $123.68 |
| 2025-10-20 | 43.43% | +5.99 | 0.918 | $120.11 |
| 2025-10-17 | 48.94% | +8.74 | 0.855 | $117.60 |
| 2025-10-16 | — | — | — | $117.52 |
| 2025-10-15 | 44.79% | +4.45 | 0.872 | $124.46 |
| 2025-10-14 | 43.49% | +4.68 | 0.900 | $125.98 |
| 2025-10-10 | — | — | — | $117.82 |
| 2025-10-09 | 42.14% | +3.92 | 0.907 | $124.06 |
| 2025-10-08 | 39.67% | +3.06 | 0.952 | $124.73 |
| 2025-10-07 | 39.51% | +4.37 | 0.939 | $124.72 |
| 2025-10-06 | 41.03% | +3.47 | 0.929 | $126.87 |
| 2025-10-03 | 38.62% | +3.69 | 0.966 | $127.65 |
| 2025-10-02 | 40.74% | +3.28 | 0.927 | $124.63 |
| 2025-10-01 | 39.99% | +2.57 | 0.948 | $127.47 |
| 2025-09-30 | 37.85% | -0.24 | 0.974 | $129.95 |
| 2025-09-29 | 35.59% | +4.32 | 1.011 | $134.48 |
| 2025-09-26 | 35.57% | +3.04 | 1.008 | $134.01 |
| 2025-09-25 | 36.88% | +3.41 | 0.992 | $135.66 |
| 2025-09-24 | 36.14% | +3.09 | 0.999 | $137.94 |
| 2025-09-23 | 35.17% | +2.90 | 0.990 | $147.25 |
| 2025-09-22 | 33.34% | +2.19 | 1.041 | $146.95 |
| 2025-09-19 | 33.67% | +2.96 | 1.016 | $148.92 |
| 2025-09-18 | 33.94% | +2.42 | 1.011 | $149.34 |
| 2025-09-17 | 33.65% | +2.49 | 1.021 | $144.40 |
| 2025-09-16 | 34.99% | +2.68 | 0.992 | $144.38 |
| 2025-09-15 | 34.77% | +2.73 | 0.990 | $144.65 |
| 2025-09-12 | 33.94% | +2.67 | 1.007 | $143.34 |
| 2025-09-11 | 33.07% | +2.32 | 1.029 | $145.01 |
| 2025-09-10 | 32.65% | +2.69 | 1.005 | $139.29 |
| 2025-09-09 | 29.78% | +7.39 | 1.099 | $137.39 |
| 2025-09-08 | 31.42% | +3.05 | 1.029 | $138.69 |
| 2025-09-05 | 31.62% | +2.95 | 1.025 | $135.53 |
| 2025-09-04 | 32.00% | +3.55 | 1.025 | $137.35 |
| 2025-09-03 | 34.52% | +7.25 | 0.956 | $134.83 |
| 2025-09-02 | 32.78% | +7.70 | 1.000 | $138.74 |
| 2025-08-29 | 30.47% | +2.08 | 1.053 | $139.49 |
| 2025-08-28 | 29.70% | +1.81 | 1.061 | $140.09 |
| 2025-08-27 | 29.93% | +1.61 | 1.108 | $140.47 |
| 2025-08-26 | 31.60% | +2.72 | 1.037 | $140.08 |
| 2025-08-25 | 31.97% | +2.70 | 1.036 | $138.71 |
| 2025-08-22 | 31.45% | +1.81 | 1.023 | $141.77 |
| 2025-08-21 | 33.41% | +3.56 | 0.983 | $137.84 |
| 2025-08-20 | 33.16% | +2.45 | 1.012 | $138.09 |
| 2025-08-19 | 29.97% | +8.48 | 1.061 | $138.95 |
| 2025-08-18 | 31.92% | +3.33 | 0.997 | $141.20 |
| 2025-08-15 | 30.62% | +2.73 | 1.020 | $142.28 |
| 2025-08-14 | 29.85% | +3.54 | 1.014 | $146.06 |
| 2025-08-13 | 30.05% | +4.06 | 1.029 | $147.46 |
| 2025-08-12 | 30.49% | +1.88 | 1.007 | $147.24 |
| 2025-08-11 | 32.14% | +3.83 | 0.995 | $141.57 |
| 2025-08-08 | 31.67% | +3.45 | 1.007 | $142.67 |
| 2025-08-07 | 32.65% | +3.85 | 1.001 | $142.19 |
| 2025-08-06 | 32.77% | +3.21 | 0.994 | $144.56 |
| 2025-08-05 | 32.05% | +6.01 | 1.014 | $142.66 |
| 2025-08-04 | 33.02% | +3.84 | 0.968 | $145.13 |
| 2025-08-01 | 37.58% | +6.55 | 0.936 | $142.55 |
| 2025-07-31 | 32.80% | +2.66 | 0.990 | $146.58 |
| 2025-07-30 | 39.42% | +4.91 | 0.819 | $150.43 |
| 2025-07-29 | 33.28% | +3.21 | 0.951 | $151.00 |
| 2025-07-28 | 32.92% | +2.56 | 0.954 | $152.15 |
| 2025-07-25 | 33.14% | +3.16 | 0.961 | $152.16 |
| 2025-07-24 | 32.29% | +0.70 | 0.953 | $150.19 |
| 2025-07-23 | 37.54% | +2.53 | 0.872 | $148.26 |
| 2025-07-22 | 36.01% | +0.89 | 0.919 | $144.97 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 338 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20Δ 看涨 | — | 39.99% | 35.98% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 42.65% | 39.49% | 36.34% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 42.71% | 39.86% | 36.67% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 43.52% | 39.76% | 35.90% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 43.99% | 39.92% | 38.03% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 44.27% | 40.47% | 37.60% |
| ATM | 44.57% | 41.06% | 38.02% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 44.90% | 41.59% | 37.71% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 45.31% | 42.36% | 38.10% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 45.76% | 42.75% | 37.95% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 46.03% | 45.63% | 38.69% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 46.36% | 43.55% | 39.80% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 47.08% | 44.27% | 40.17% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 48.47% | 45.66% | — |
| 10Δ 看跌 | — | 47.56% | — |
| 5Δ 看跌 | — | 51.85% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $100.60 | 44.57% | 46.36% | 42.65% | +3.70 | -0.07 | 8 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $100.50 | 41.06% | 43.55% | 39.49% | +4.06 | +0.47 | 19 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $100.50 | 38.02% | 39.80% | 36.34% | +3.47 | +0.05 | 14 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $100.65 | 38.66% | 42.07% | 39.35% | +2.72 | +2.05 | 15 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $100.85 | 37.18% | 39.93% | 35.96% | +3.97 | +0.77 | 11 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $101.21 | 37.03% | 39.72% | 35.53% | +4.19 | +0.60 | 14 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $101.73 | 38.19% | 41.71% | 36.61% | +5.10 | +0.97 | 20 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $101.84 | 39.35% | 40.35% | 37.79% | +2.55 | -0.28 | 24 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $101.95 | 39.44% | 40.29% | 37.52% | +2.77 | -0.53 | 26 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $102.87 | 39.81% | 40.89% | 37.99% | +2.91 | -0.37 | 27 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
10 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $100.60 | 44.57% | $100.68 | 8 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $100.50 | 41.06% | $100.73 | 19 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $100.50 | 38.02% | $100.84 | 14 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $100.65 | 38.66% | $101.14 | 15 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $100.85 | 37.18% | $101.58 | 11 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $101.21 | 37.03% | $102.47 | 14 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $101.73 | 38.19% | $104.38 | 20 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $101.84 | 39.35% | $106.07 | 24 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $101.95 | 39.44% | $106.82 | 26 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $102.87 | 39.81% | $110.06 | 27 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 37.86%
- 60 天
- 37.05%
- 90 天
- 37.67%
- 180 天
- 39.19%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 7 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 7 次中 6 次
- 86% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 6.2%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 3.0%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | 开盘前 | 7.5% | +1.7% | 0.22× |
| 2026-11-06 | 未说明时间 | 7.5% | +1.7% | 0.22× |
| 2026-10-28 | 未说明时间 | 3.7% | +3.0% | 0.80× |
| 2026-07-30 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-05 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-05 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-07 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-31 | 开盘前 | 6.3% | -2.6% | 0.41× |
| 2025-05-01 | 开盘前 | 7.4% | +0.2% | 0.03× |
| 2025-02-04 | 开盘前 | 6.2% | -8.5% | 1.37× |
| 2024-10-24 | 开盘前 | 4.6% | +3.4% | 0.75× |
| 2024-07-31 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-01 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-07 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。