股票 · 期权分析
KLAC 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $152.99
- 30D ATM IV
- 63.56%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 97
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +8.17
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.977
▲ +0.29 pts 较前一交易日
概览
KLAC 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 63.6%,相当于未来一个月约 ±18.2% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 205 个交易日中 97% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 8.17 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 4% 的交易日差距比这更大。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 2%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-28(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±9.2% 的波动,KLAC 实际平均波动 53.6%,6 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 63.56%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +8.17
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.37
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.977
对应 30 天内约 ±18.2% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.0%。
高于过去一年中 97% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 8.17 个点。
高于过去一年中 96% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.37 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 2%。
高于过去一年中 45% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 205 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 97%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 80%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 98%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 80%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $152.99
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $152.32
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 59.44%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 62.08%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 59.59%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 299,323
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.65
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 338 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 63.56% | +8.17 | 0.977 | $152.99 |
| 2026-11-09 | 63.27% | +5.92 | 0.955 | $151.38 |
| 2026-11-06 | 66.70% | +8.89 | 0.946 | $138.49 |
| 2026-11-05 | 71.69% | +9.94 | 0.907 | $129.80 |
| 2026-11-04 | 59.41% | +2.93 | 0.968 | $149.79 |
| 2026-11-03 | 60.95% | +3.96 | 0.953 | $156.20 |
| 2026-11-02 | 61.13% | +2.43 | 0.936 | $153.11 |
| 2026-10-30 | 59.08% | +3.32 | 0.960 | $157.91 |
| 2026-10-29 | 54.64% | +2.61 | 0.962 | $167.43 |
| 2026-10-28 | 60.27% | +1.61 | 0.916 | $158.77 |
| 2026-10-27 | 61.77% | +2.47 | 0.893 | $153.66 |
| 2026-10-26 | 61.11% | +1.81 | 0.912 | $149.21 |
| 2026-10-23 | 60.58% | +4.14 | 0.913 | $145.61 |
| 2026-10-22 | 63.04% | +3.75 | 0.881 | $147.83 |
| 2026-10-21 | 60.13% | +0.19 | 0.898 | $163.43 |
| 2026-10-20 | 58.90% | +1.46 | 0.915 | $161.74 |
| 2026-10-19 | 60.48% | +0.95 | 0.880 | $166.40 |
| 2026-10-16 | 62.04% | +2.81 | 0.861 | $165.74 |
| 2026-10-15 | 61.27% | +0.74 | 0.875 | $174.46 |
| 2026-10-14 | 63.35% | +0.98 | 0.864 | $178.81 |
| 2026-10-13 | 61.79% | +0.31 | 0.910 | $184.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | 62.28% | -0.35 | 0.881 | $195.57 |
| 2026-10-08 | 63.78% | -0.42 | 0.869 | $196.72 |
| 2026-10-07 | 61.69% | -0.33 | 0.899 | $196.83 |
| 2026-10-06 | 61.59% | -2.41 | 0.908 | $197.46 |
| 2026-10-05 | 59.72% | +2.21 | 0.950 | $206.85 |
| 2026-10-02 | 62.22% | +1.51 | 0.950 | $206.89 |
| 2026-10-01 | 60.51% | +2.70 | 0.954 | $200.33 |
| 2026-09-30 | 63.51% | +0.93 | 0.927 | $194.93 |
| 2026-09-29 | 63.70% | +1.73 | 0.913 | $196.53 |
| 2026-09-28 | 63.03% | +0.59 | 0.942 | $189.17 |
| 2026-09-25 | 59.19% | +0.44 | 0.975 | $187.92 |
| 2026-09-24 | 56.77% | +1.28 | 1.030 | $187.11 |
| 2026-09-23 | 58.67% | +1.08 | 0.987 | $187.86 |
| 2026-09-22 | 57.77% | -1.34 | 0.990 | $188.32 |
| 2026-09-21 | 56.20% | -0.96 | 1.015 | $183.97 |
| 2026-09-18 | 53.51% | +0.72 | 1.072 | $176.99 |
| 2026-09-17 | 53.33% | +0.37 | 1.046 | $168.98 |
| 2026-09-16 | 53.29% | -0.21 | 1.038 | $167.36 |
| 2026-09-15 | 53.24% | +1.52 | 1.079 | $168.02 |
| 2026-09-14 | 54.16% | -1.21 | 1.097 | $169.09 |
| 2026-09-11 | 52.61% | +0.79 | 1.133 | $180.64 |
| 2026-09-10 | 55.21% | -1.13 | 1.105 | $177.18 |
| 2026-09-09 | 57.53% | -5.80 | 1.051 | $182.91 |
| 2026-09-08 | 56.59% | -4.94 | 1.064 | $188.98 |
| 2026-09-04 | 54.74% | -1.30 | 1.083 | $185.60 |
| 2026-09-03 | 49.98% | +1.46 | 1.123 | $172.94 |
| 2026-09-02 | 47.95% | -0.61 | 1.172 | $172.26 |
| 2026-09-01 | 50.24% | +1.39 | 1.129 | $170.89 |
| 2026-08-31 | 51.98% | +2.67 | 1.096 | $175.45 |
| 2026-08-28 | 51.70% | -1.43 | 1.130 | $175.54 |
| 2026-08-27 | 49.83% | +4.20 | 1.199 | $183.77 |
| 2026-08-26 | 53.70% | +2.17 | 1.124 | $183.83 |
| 2026-08-25 | 54.28% | +0.38 | 1.133 | $183.34 |
| 2026-08-24 | 57.91% | -0.04 | 1.103 | $181.57 |
| 2025-10-22 | 48.76% | +2.15 | 0.872 | $1,114.32 |
| 2025-10-21 | — | — | — | $1,147.43 |
| 2025-10-20 | — | — | — | $1,152.89 |
| 2025-10-17 | — | — | — | $1,106.66 |
| 2025-10-16 | — | — | — | $1,098.80 |
| 2025-10-15 | — | — | — | $1,087.01 |
| 2025-10-14 | — | — | — | $1,025.71 |
| 2025-10-10 | 48.63% | +2.29 | 0.883 | $982.75 |
| 2025-10-09 | — | — | — | $1,053.47 |
| 2025-10-08 | 44.89% | +1.70 | 0.914 | $1,062.59 |
| 2025-10-07 | 45.30% | +2.14 | 0.906 | $1,084.74 |
| 2025-10-06 | 45.39% | +0.38 | 0.918 | $1,139.71 |
| 2025-10-03 | 42.06% | +1.01 | 0.943 | $1,101.55 |
| 2025-10-02 | 42.72% | -0.63 | 0.947 | $1,139.26 |
| 2025-10-01 | 44.24% | -0.44 | 0.930 | $1,128.87 |
| 2025-09-30 | 41.04% | +2.30 | 0.948 | $1,078.60 |
| 2025-09-29 | 41.05% | +1.46 | 0.953 | $1,064.13 |
| 2025-09-26 | 39.27% | +0.57 | 0.992 | $1,064.29 |
| 2025-09-25 | 40.01% | +2.14 | 0.988 | $1,059.10 |
| 2025-09-24 | 39.98% | +2.25 | 0.980 | $1,068.67 |
| 2025-09-23 | 41.24% | +1.94 | 0.974 | $1,071.20 |
| 2025-09-22 | 41.79% | +0.90 | 0.967 | $1,071.25 |
| 2025-09-19 | 38.96% | -0.36 | 0.999 | $1,044.81 |
| 2025-09-18 | 38.79% | +0.55 | 1.013 | $1,046.69 |
| 2025-09-17 | 37.98% | +2.21 | 0.987 | $989.87 |
| 2025-09-16 | — | — | — | $990.57 |
| 2025-09-15 | — | — | — | $988.91 |
| 2025-09-12 | — | — | — | $964.02 |
| 2025-09-11 | 35.66% | +3.92 | 1.025 | $959.28 |
| 2025-09-10 | 34.78% | +4.21 | 1.064 | $932.63 |
| 2025-09-09 | 33.45% | +5.25 | 1.072 | $917.73 |
| 2025-09-08 | 33.92% | +3.72 | 1.060 | $908.98 |
| 2025-09-05 | 33.87% | +3.28 | 1.085 | $905.09 |
| 2025-09-04 | 33.77% | +4.30 | 1.067 | $873.29 |
| 2025-09-03 | 34.51% | +4.88 | 1.058 | $843.90 |
| 2025-09-02 | 35.57% | +4.47 | 1.055 | $846.35 |
| 2025-08-29 | 32.18% | +3.45 | 1.119 | $872.00 |
| 2025-08-28 | 30.94% | +3.40 | 1.132 | $894.00 |
| 2025-08-27 | 31.68% | +3.50 | 1.099 | $888.89 |
| 2025-08-26 | 32.34% | +3.96 | 1.105 | $888.10 |
| 2025-08-25 | 32.76% | +3.54 | 1.090 | $879.55 |
| 2025-08-22 | 32.30% | +2.95 | 1.087 | $870.28 |
| 2025-08-21 | 33.03% | +4.95 | 1.077 | $872.39 |
| 2025-08-20 | 32.07% | +3.40 | 1.117 | $878.44 |
| 2025-08-19 | — | — | — | $876.08 |
| 2025-08-18 | — | — | — | $883.39 |
| 2025-08-15 | — | — | — | $874.94 |
| 2025-08-14 | — | — | — | $955.41 |
| 2025-08-13 | — | — | — | $949.48 |
| 2025-08-12 | — | — | — | $935.53 |
| 2025-08-11 | 33.23% | +3.74 | 1.021 | $910.18 |
| 2025-08-08 | 32.26% | +3.62 | 1.037 | $914.80 |
| 2025-08-07 | 33.51% | +4.42 | 1.029 | $912.06 |
| 2025-08-06 | 34.00% | +3.50 | 1.017 | $888.28 |
| 2025-08-05 | 34.02% | +3.33 | 1.021 | $883.41 |
| 2025-08-04 | 34.11% | +2.69 | 1.002 | $915.62 |
| 2025-08-01 | 34.94% | +3.36 | 1.010 | $886.64 |
| 2025-07-31 | 40.09% | +3.58 | 0.929 | $879.03 |
| 2025-07-30 | 38.29% | +3.21 | 0.923 | $924.99 |
| 2025-07-29 | 38.26% | +3.09 | 0.925 | $916.09 |
| 2025-07-28 | 37.90% | +2.20 | 0.927 | $923.15 |
| 2025-07-25 | 36.86% | +4.21 | 0.938 | $902.09 |
| 2025-07-24 | 37.55% | +3.88 | 0.930 | $904.18 |
| 2025-07-23 | 38.82% | +4.59 | 0.919 | $897.09 |
| 2025-07-22 | 38.67% | +3.93 | 0.920 | $892.22 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 338 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Δ 看涨 | 76.88% | 65.68% | 62.32% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 76.93% | 66.17% | 63.03% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 77.41% | 64.83% | 63.77% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 78.21% | 66.69% | 64.50% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 79.99% | 67.52% | 65.24% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 81.33% | 68.65% | 66.17% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 81.47% | 69.58% | 67.03% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 81.91% | 69.48% | 68.08% |
| ATM | 83.17% | 71.30% | 69.37% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 84.37% | 70.90% | 62.76% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 86.41% | 72.83% | 66.06% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 87.57% | 74.65% | 62.67% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 88.83% | 77.44% | 64.12% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 88.19% | 76.65% | 65.17% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 91.29% | 76.15% | 66.50% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 92.17% | 78.47% | 73.19% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 92.17% | — | 73.43% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 105.40% | — | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $152.40 | 83.17% | 88.19% | 78.21% | +9.98 | +0.03 | 23 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $152.35 | 71.30% | 76.65% | 66.69% | +9.96 | +0.37 | 37 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $151.35 | 69.37% | 65.17% | 64.50% | +0.67 | -4.54 | 21 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $152.69 | 62.63% | 67.29% | 58.83% | +8.46 | +0.44 | 12 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $152.26 | 63.68% | 68.11% | 59.97% | +8.14 | +0.36 | 15 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $152.15 | 63.16% | 64.78% | 59.96% | +4.83 | -0.79 | 57 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $152.36 | 61.64% | 66.04% | 59.78% | +6.26 | +1.26 | 12 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $153.60 | 58.87% | 63.48% | 56.93% | +6.55 | +1.33 | 71 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $152.98 | 63.01% | 63.93% | 59.46% | +4.46 | -1.32 | 26 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $154.76 | 59.28% | 63.75% | 56.05% | +7.70 | +0.62 | 93 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $154.19 | 59.83% | 63.47% | 56.99% | +6.48 | +0.40 | 29 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $154.44 | 59.30% | 61.05% | 57.31% | +3.74 | -0.13 | 120 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $156.92 | 57.49% | 59.93% | 58.60% | +1.33 | +1.77 | 35 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $152.40 | 83.17% | $152.83 | 23 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $152.35 | 71.30% | $153.41 | 37 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $151.35 | 69.37% | $153.06 | 21 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $152.69 | 62.63% | $154.68 | 12 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $152.26 | 63.68% | $154.90 | 15 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $152.15 | 63.16% | $155.34 | 57 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $152.36 | 61.64% | $155.89 | 12 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $153.60 | 58.87% | $158.49 | 71 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $152.98 | 63.01% | $161.61 | 26 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $154.76 | 59.28% | $164.68 | 93 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $154.19 | 59.83% | $166.52 | 29 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $154.44 | 59.30% | $171.62 | 120 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $156.92 | 57.49% | $180.65 | 35 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 63.56%
- 60 天
- 59.44%
- 90 天
- 62.08%
- 180 天
- 59.59%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 1 次
- 17% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 9.2%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 53.6%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 未说明时间 | 5.6% | -13.3% | 2.37× |
| 2026-10-28 | 收盘后 | 9.0% | +5.5% | 0.61× |
| 2026-07-28 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-31 | 收盘后 | 9.0% | -79.3% | 8.85× |
| 2025-04-30 | 收盘后 | 10.1% | -74.2% | 7.35× |
| 2025-01-30 | 收盘后 | 9.8% | -75.5% | 7.68× |
| 2024-10-30 | 收盘后 | 11.5% | -73.8% | 6.42× |
| 2024-07-24 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。