股票 · 期权分析
LITE 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $585.57
- 30D ATM IV
- 80.12%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 87
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +6.82
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.944
▼ -1.13 pts 较前一交易日
概览
LITE 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 80.1%,相当于未来一个月约 ±23.0% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 202 个交易日中 87% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 6.82 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 6%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-01(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 8 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±14.8% 的波动,LITE 实际平均波动 565.3%,8 次中有 2 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 80.12%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +6.82
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +2.41
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.944
对应 30 天内约 ±23.0% 的波动，平常一天约 ±5.0%。
高于过去一年中 87% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 6.82 个点。
高于过去一年中 89% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 2.41 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 6%。
高于过去一年中 43% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 202 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 87%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 51%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 89%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 54%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $585.57
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $589.11
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 78.60%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 75.68%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 72.15%
- 使用的到期日数
- 14
- 总未平仓量
- 201,531
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.70
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 338 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 80.12% | +6.82 | 0.944 | $585.57 |
| 2026-11-09 | 81.26% | +4.77 | 0.925 | $596.16 |
| 2026-11-06 | 83.51% | +4.56 | 0.934 | $538.59 |
| 2026-11-05 | 83.49% | -1.78 | 0.935 | $509.70 |
| 2026-11-04 | 70.99% | +0.58 | 0.975 | $626.75 |
| 2026-11-03 | 73.09% | -1.36 | 0.904 | $680.16 |
| 2026-11-02 | 77.89% | -7.11 | 0.883 | $684.40 |
| 2026-10-30 | 80.18% | +4.62 | 0.879 | $840.70 |
| 2026-10-29 | 76.03% | +0.95 | 0.911 | $919.53 |
| 2026-10-28 | 78.82% | +0.95 | 0.924 | $913.95 |
| 2026-10-27 | 81.03% | +0.74 | 0.883 | $866.18 |
| 2026-10-26 | 82.63% | +1.76 | 0.872 | $818.10 |
| 2026-10-23 | 81.37% | +3.39 | 0.877 | $756.17 |
| 2026-10-22 | 82.61% | +3.72 | 0.878 | $752.54 |
| 2026-10-21 | 77.27% | +2.25 | 0.886 | $850.70 |
| 2026-10-20 | 79.56% | +2.36 | 0.872 | $822.51 |
| 2026-10-19 | 77.70% | +1.62 | 0.900 | $834.51 |
| 2026-10-16 | 80.84% | +1.40 | 0.859 | $824.13 |
| 2026-10-15 | 78.50% | +2.46 | 0.880 | $869.54 |
| 2026-10-14 | 79.28% | +0.22 | 0.883 | $896.33 |
| 2026-10-13 | 77.56% | +1.31 | 0.910 | $987.99 |
| 2026-10-09 | 76.76% | -1.60 | 0.911 | $1,103.36 |
| 2026-10-08 | 77.44% | -2.99 | 0.906 | $1,048.60 |
| 2026-10-07 | 78.39% | -0.30 | 0.908 | $1,111.07 |
| 2026-10-06 | 77.43% | -1.27 | 0.928 | $1,133.40 |
| 2026-10-05 | 76.45% | -2.46 | 0.953 | $1,091.67 |
| 2026-10-02 | 72.45% | -0.79 | 1.019 | $1,085.42 |
| 2026-10-01 | 73.64% | -1.90 | 1.035 | $1,045.78 |
| 2026-09-30 | 70.59% | +0.17 | 1.046 | $971.26 |
| 2026-09-29 | 71.74% | -2.15 | 1.039 | $973.49 |
| 2026-09-28 | 70.63% | -2.90 | 1.048 | $921.32 |
| 2026-09-25 | 69.71% | +0.00 | 1.077 | $941.65 |
| 2026-09-24 | 70.93% | -1.55 | 1.072 | $929.04 |
| 2026-09-23 | 72.62% | -1.28 | 1.055 | $937.00 |
| 2026-09-22 | 73.13% | -2.15 | 1.054 | $945.67 |
| 2026-09-21 | 72.86% | -1.93 | 1.043 | $954.49 |
| 2026-09-18 | 70.62% | +1.22 | 1.072 | $930.91 |
| 2026-09-17 | 69.76% | +0.24 | 1.069 | $893.61 |
| 2026-09-16 | 72.78% | +0.66 | 1.057 | $919.40 |
| 2026-09-15 | 68.95% | +0.78 | 1.097 | $838.96 |
| 2026-09-14 | 72.40% | -0.95 | 1.058 | $835.03 |
| 2026-09-11 | 70.85% | -0.22 | 1.089 | $927.03 |
| 2026-09-10 | 72.83% | -3.40 | 1.069 | $935.70 |
| 2026-09-09 | 75.95% | -5.01 | 1.061 | $988.98 |
| 2026-09-08 | 79.18% | -3.93 | 1.053 | $978.54 |
| 2026-09-04 | 69.06% | -1.30 | 1.110 | $881.26 |
| 2026-09-03 | 68.55% | -0.38 | 1.095 | $847.37 |
| 2026-09-02 | 69.72% | +0.68 | 1.067 | $870.58 |
| 2026-09-01 | 68.58% | -0.14 | 1.090 | $868.95 |
| 2026-08-31 | 71.81% | +1.09 | 1.091 | $914.76 |
| 2026-08-28 | 71.67% | +0.41 | 1.104 | $895.00 |
| 2026-08-27 | 76.17% | +0.72 | 1.067 | $956.14 |
| 2026-08-26 | 78.60% | +0.21 | 1.055 | $939.03 |
| 2026-08-25 | 80.10% | +2.97 | 1.053 | $885.57 |
| 2026-08-24 | 79.17% | -0.10 | 1.054 | $830.17 |
| 2025-10-22 | — | — | — | $158.06 |
| 2025-10-21 | 81.17% | +3.76 | — | $162.95 |
| 2025-10-20 | 83.28% | -0.34 | 0.846 | $161.00 |
| 2025-10-17 | — | — | — | $164.77 |
| 2025-10-16 | — | — | — | $163.23 |
| 2025-10-15 | 71.70% | +1.51 | 0.992 | $156.57 |
| 2025-10-14 | — | — | — | $156.78 |
| 2025-10-10 | 83.03% | +7.24 | 0.909 | $149.61 |
| 2025-10-09 | 71.73% | +4.08 | 0.957 | $159.76 |
| 2025-10-08 | 71.76% | +0.81 | 0.952 | $163.09 |
| 2025-10-07 | 73.81% | +0.81 | 0.925 | $157.15 |
| 2025-10-06 | 73.07% | +2.24 | 0.939 | $160.60 |
| 2025-10-03 | 67.11% | +0.36 | 0.992 | $163.81 |
| 2025-10-02 | 69.58% | -0.28 | 0.976 | $169.75 |
| 2025-10-01 | 71.07% | +1.19 | 0.954 | $171.40 |
| 2025-09-30 | 68.13% | +1.96 | 0.973 | $162.71 |
| 2025-09-29 | 68.04% | +1.94 | 0.976 | $162.58 |
| 2025-09-26 | 65.30% | +1.64 | 1.005 | $160.75 |
| 2025-09-25 | 67.40% | +2.16 | 0.999 | $159.11 |
| 2025-09-24 | 63.21% | +2.96 | 1.017 | $152.75 |
| 2025-09-23 | 60.81% | +0.59 | 1.053 | $163.99 |
| 2025-09-22 | 60.91% | -2.39 | 1.050 | $164.71 |
| 2025-09-19 | 57.87% | -0.14 | 1.130 | $168.73 |
| 2025-09-18 | 60.61% | -0.41 | 1.074 | $171.50 |
| 2025-09-17 | 59.58% | +0.04 | 1.071 | $163.34 |
| 2025-09-16 | 60.21% | -0.15 | 1.070 | $170.90 |
| 2025-09-15 | 59.37% | -0.17 | 1.064 | $168.77 |
| 2025-09-12 | 54.21% | +0.25 | 1.115 | $163.02 |
| 2025-09-11 | 55.82% | +1.94 | — | $164.88 |
| 2025-09-10 | — | — | — | $164.88 |
| 2025-09-09 | 52.25% | +3.02 | — | $151.73 |
| 2025-09-08 | 52.96% | +2.93 | — | $149.40 |
| 2025-09-05 | 52.25% | +2.80 | — | $149.46 |
| 2025-09-04 | 52.68% | +2.44 | — | $141.91 |
| 2025-09-03 | 51.96% | +2.40 | 1.088 | $134.12 |
| 2025-09-02 | 53.28% | +2.70 | 1.074 | $132.56 |
| 2025-08-29 | 49.47% | +2.60 | 1.107 | $132.81 |
| 2025-08-28 | 49.74% | +1.43 | 1.108 | $135.55 |
| 2025-08-27 | 49.93% | +2.87 | 1.098 | $125.84 |
| 2025-08-26 | 48.70% | +2.65 | 1.106 | $124.62 |
| 2025-08-25 | 48.87% | +1.44 | 1.108 | $123.42 |
| 2025-08-22 | 50.56% | +2.68 | 1.075 | $119.34 |
| 2025-08-21 | 52.34% | +3.90 | 1.055 | $117.43 |
| 2025-08-20 | 52.01% | +3.44 | 1.057 | $115.89 |
| 2025-08-19 | — | — | — | $117.96 |
| 2025-08-18 | — | — | — | $118.98 |
| 2025-08-15 | — | — | — | $115.86 |
| 2025-08-14 | — | — | — | $114.62 |
| 2025-08-13 | — | — | — | $120.23 |
| 2025-08-12 | 67.62% | +6.64 | 0.884 | $119.66 |
| 2025-08-11 | 66.63% | +3.24 | 0.867 | $115.03 |
| 2025-08-08 | 62.53% | +4.24 | 0.895 | $116.27 |
| 2025-08-07 | 63.36% | +6.44 | 0.888 | $111.13 |
| 2025-08-06 | — | — | — | $110.01 |
| 2025-08-05 | 65.96% | +5.05 | 0.873 | $108.15 |
| 2025-08-04 | 66.81% | +2.00 | 0.858 | $111.13 |
| 2025-08-01 | 66.92% | +4.54 | 0.873 | $106.68 |
| 2025-07-31 | 63.99% | +3.49 | 0.876 | $110.08 |
| 2025-07-30 | 65.12% | +2.84 | 0.857 | $109.85 |
| 2025-07-29 | 64.23% | +3.50 | 0.865 | $109.48 |
| 2025-07-28 | 64.75% | +3.59 | 0.868 | $107.17 |
| 2025-07-25 | 63.44% | +5.39 | 0.855 | $104.52 |
| 2025-07-24 | 64.20% | +5.15 | 0.847 | $102.85 |
| 2025-07-23 | 65.67% | +4.76 | 0.840 | $102.13 |
| 2025-07-22 | 65.50% | +7.80 | 0.834 | $99.63 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 338 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | — | 88.33% | 82.74% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 93.50% | 86.90% | 78.02% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 94.42% | 86.37% | 78.20% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 94.65% | 85.66% | 78.59% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 95.22% | 86.02% | 78.19% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 94.88% | 87.12% | 78.56% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 96.48% | 86.81% | 79.05% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 96.34% | 87.26% | 78.72% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 96.78% | 87.92% | 79.68% |
| ATM | 98.09% | 88.26% | 79.69% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 98.66% | 89.60% | 81.15% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 100.15% | 90.32% | 81.84% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 99.69% | 90.89% | 83.13% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 101.96% | 92.33% | 83.84% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 101.72% | 93.79% | 84.79% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 105.02% | 95.51% | 85.98% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 106.15% | 98.00% | 88.24% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 108.49% | 100.84% | 89.82% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 113.00% | 104.13% | 94.75% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $585.80 | 98.09% | 101.72% | 95.22% | +6.49 | +0.38 | 73 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $586.50 | 88.26% | 93.79% | 86.02% | +7.76 | +1.65 | 70 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $588.30 | 79.69% | 84.79% | 78.19% | +6.60 | +1.80 | 86 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $587.99 | 82.03% | 85.27% | 80.25% | +5.02 | +0.73 | 82 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $589.30 | 79.87% | 86.03% | 78.98% | +7.05 | +2.63 | 47 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $589.65 | 80.09% | 83.69% | 78.94% | +4.74 | +1.22 | 63 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $588.87 | 78.59% | 81.85% | 75.89% | +5.96 | +0.28 | 37 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $590.35 | 78.60% | 77.54% | 76.13% | +1.42 | -1.76 | 81 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $591.97 | 74.78% | 75.74% | 75.23% | +0.51 | +0.71 | 86 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $593.50 | 74.19% | 75.20% | 73.99% | +1.20 | +0.41 | 89 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $595.11 | 72.61% | 74.40% | 72.02% | +2.37 | +0.60 | 84 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $599.02 | 71.59% | 73.38% | 70.79% | +2.58 | +0.49 | 91 |
| 2027-07-16 | 248 | $602.32 | 70.60% | 72.42% | 70.58% | +1.83 | +0.89 | 72 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $610.00 | 70.14% | 71.61% | 69.85% | +1.76 | +0.59 | 82 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
14 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $585.80 | 98.09% | $588.12 | 73 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $586.50 | 88.26% | $592.79 | 70 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $588.30 | 79.69% | $597.06 | 86 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $587.99 | 82.03% | $601.15 | 82 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $589.30 | 79.87% | $605.48 | 47 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $589.65 | 80.09% | $609.67 | 63 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $588.87 | 78.59% | $611.21 | 37 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $590.35 | 78.60% | $624.26 | 81 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $591.97 | 74.78% | $639.59 | 86 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $593.50 | 74.19% | $654.12 | 89 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $595.11 | 72.61% | $666.56 | 84 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $599.02 | 71.59% | $698.59 | 91 |
| 2027-07-16 | 248 天 | $602.32 | 70.60% | $713.47 | 72 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $610.00 | 70.14% | $752.22 | 82 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 80.12%
- 60 天
- 78.60%
- 90 天
- 75.68%
- 180 天
- 72.15%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 8 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 8 次中 2 次
- 25% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 14.8%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 565.3%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2026-11-05 | 收盘后 | 7.9% | +5.7% | 0.71× |
| 2026-11-03 | 未说明时间 | 9.5% | -7.9% | 0.82× |
| 2026-11-02 | 开盘前 | 14.2% | -18.6% | 1.31× |
| 2026-08-11 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-03 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-12 | 收盘后 | 14.9% | +593.8% | 39.94× |
| 2025-05-06 | 收盘后 | 17.6% | +1188.7% | 67.72× |
| 2025-02-06 | 收盘后 | 18.4% | +795.8% | 43.35× |
| 2025-02-03 | 收盘后 | 19.9% | +884.7% | 44.38× |
| 2024-11-07 | 收盘后 | 15.9% | +1027.3% | 64.53× |
| 2024-08-14 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-08 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-08 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-30 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。